"Solid" Patriot Defense Is 32nd on 3rd Down

[convertedpatsfan]

Probably be a good stat to start charting for the team. Show % for each game and overall % the last 3 games...just to see if we are making improvement.

I'd also like to see how they react to 3rd downs inside the 20 (to see how th bend, but don't break philosophy is working out). Winning certain seems to mask some if the issues, but I'm sure the coaches are working their plan.

The soft zone that leaves the middle open drives me nuts...

Was just looking at that and it's not a huge improvement.

First 3 games:
3rd down
19 of 38 = 50%
4th down
4 of 4 = 100%
Redzone
6 of 9 = 66%

Last 3 games:
3rd down
22 of 46 = 48%
4th down
1 of 2 = 50%
Redzone
4 of 8 = 50%

Redzone numbers aren't an exact breakdown of third down but tell whether we stopped them or not.

The last 3 games have been really up and down though. They were great on 3rd down against Baltimore (5 of 16), but awful against Miami (10 of 15). The San Diego game was around their average (7 of 15).

It's an area we need to focus and improve on. But the fact that anyone is referring to the Pats defense as "solid" is a massive improvement in itself.

 

[mgteich]

Clearly, we cannot expect to continue the current level of performance by the defense on third down and expect to continue winning more than 80% of our games.

Just win baby. Stats are for baseball to fill in for the excitement.

 

[Fencer]

If you could hold teams to 3rd-and-long after EVERY first down, and have conversions be for plays not all THAT long, even 50% wouldn't be bad. (Because it would take several conversions each drive for the drive to succeed.)

Unfortunately, that's not the real world.

If you knew how to consistently force 3rd and long in the first place you'd also know how to prevent conversion.

 

[Nikolai]

I'd be curious to see a more detailed (quarter-by-quarter?) breakdown on this. How often have the Pats been giving up on third-and-long when the game is close, and how often has the defense been staying on the field after third-and-long when the Pats are up by a bunch, such as against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers?

It seems that when it matters, the defense has mostly done the job.

 

[mgteich]

We only say this because the chargers had a motion penalty and hit the crossbars. had we lost that game, we would be in a very different situation, without any difference in performance.

I'd be curious to see a more detailed (quarter-by-quarter?) breakdown on this. How often have the Pats been giving up on third-and-long when the game is close, and how often has the defense been staying on the field after third-and-long when the Pats are up by a bunch, such as against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers?

It seems that when it matters, the defense has mostly done the job.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

mg there is more to playing defense than their third down percentage.

Actually, it's one of the most important stats to look for. No defense wants to stay on the field for 10-15 play drives.

Why do you always have to be as negative as possible about the team, specifically the defense?

You obviously haven't read too many of MG's threads this off-season. The Pats were "set" at almost every position.

They have stepped up and made some big plays on 3rd down when it really counts.

I do agree. Although they played horrible against Buffalo, they picked off Fitzpatrick on the last drive. They struggled early against Baltimore, but continued to give the offense a chance to win the game. And then against the Chargers, they gave the Pats offense 4 turnovers in the first half which should've been a blowout.

 

[RayClay]

I don't know who says their defense is solid. It's encouraging they've played as well as they have with their youth, especially considering injuries.

If Arrington is one of you starting CBs, you obviously have problems. I think Butler just got a Belichick attitude adjustment and Wheatley could possibly be as good as any CB they have if healthy. That's not a put down of McCourty, who has handled the weight of the world for a rookie quite well, but he's still a rookie making mistakes. Wheatley's talented and has played top receivers when healthy. At least he's had time to digest the play book.

Yeah, Bodden and Ty Law aren't walking through that door, but a healthy Wheatley and smarter Butler make Arrington and Wilhite nickle dime backs and that's actually good depth.

Finding a vet CB that's much better than Earthwind this time of year is doubtful so hoping BB can coach up the young talent they have is probably the best scenario.

If you want to feel better, look at BB's record of producing at the position, his forte, in my opinion.

Then compare just the talent level to that of the 2004 team (post Law injury SB winner).

McCourty, Wheatley, Butler, Arrington, Wilhite.

4th round pick, new starter Asante Samuel
UDFA Randall Gay
Hank Poteat
Earthwind Moreland
#5? Can't find one.

In other words, we have some raw talent and the best coach in football to mold it. He's had less to work with.

 

[Nikolai]

We only say this because the chargers had a motion penalty and hit the crossbars. had we lost that game, we would be in a very different situation, without any difference in performance.

You should note that I did use the qualifier "mostly". I think the 2009 defense would have done worse last Sunday, either giving up the touchdown or giving up the yardage to have a closer field goal attempt. I'm not bananas about the defense yet, but I like their progress and I'm personally enjoying watching them grow into their roles.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Those stats make me cringe, on 3rd and long I have more confidence in say Tavaris Jackson against us than Brady against any defense.

I always hope we get a sack or pick, even an incompletion the fact we are behind Buf in this stat is scary. The worst is on backfield passes to a rb, our db/lb sits back and either goes for a weak non aggressive tackle or they wait for the first down before going for contact. It's almost sickening how easy it is, the game against the Bills made it clear we suck on 3rd down.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I'd be curious to see a more detailed (quarter-by-quarter?) breakdown on this. How often have the Pats been giving up on third-and-long when the game is close, and how often has the defense been staying on the field after third-and-long when the Pats are up by a bunch, such as against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers?

It seems that when it matters, the defense has mostly done the job.

How about by half???

........ Ist half ............ second half
Cinn ......... 2/7 ................ 6/8
NYJ ........ 3/5 ................. 3/8
Buff ......... 4/8 .................... 1/2
Mia ........ 3/6 ................ 7/9
Balt ....... 2/7 ............... 3/9
SD ........ 3/8 .................... 4/7
Opponent 3rd down conversion
First half 17/41 ……41.4%
second half 24/43…..55.8%

 

[mgteich]

Yup, before Bodden went down, I thought that we'd be fine. I thought that the secondary would be great, that the DL would make up for the loss of Green, and that BB would work around the relative weakness at OLB. I thought that the defense would be solid by midyear and certainly going into the playoff run.

***** happens. We lost Warren. But then we made up for Warren's loss with the solid play of Gerard Warren.

I have been very disappointed with the play of the secondary, although as I have indicated much of this has been due to the absence of Bodden. In the end, Arrington has been saving the day, holding the fort at corner when Butler and WIlhite have been found wanting.

The front seven has developed much as expected with Deaderick and Fletcher being pleasant surprises (more than making up for the disappointment in Brace). Sure, we want more of a passrush, but this front seven has been holding its own. After all, a Belichick defense is more about lane responsibilities than about sacks and even hurries. The front seven has been especially effective against the run, both up the middle and in setting the edge.

Overall, I am ecstatic that we are 5-1 early when the young defense is so early in its learning process.

.You obviously haven't read too many of MG's threads this off-season. The Pats were "set" at almost every position.

 

[patsfanboy]

I don't understand watching the game the defense seems so good at time, , like last week against SD. We were stop them, or they were stopping them self mostly the whole game. Then we send everyone back in the last quarter, making big openings over the middle.

 

[jmt57]

Regarding third down, I do think some of it can be attributed to trying to work the clock, prevent a big play and quick score when leading late in the game (Cincy, Buffalo, Miami, San Diego.) However that does not mean the Pats don't have an issue - as evidenced by the three comebacks in those games. In other words the third-down defense is probably not quite as bad as the stats would indicate because of the circumstances, but on the other hand it certainly does need to improve.


By the way, I just stumbled across this site that has all kinds of sortable stats for folks that enjoy looking at that type of thing. One nice thing they do is make their stat rankings per game, making for better comparisons between teams that have played a different number of games due to their bye week.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage on TeamRankings.com

 

[mgteich]

One game a time, but!

The question to me is how this team can stop the colts without a solid secondary and without an aggressive passrush. We just don't seem to match up well against the colts at this point. But then, we have a long way to go, and much time in which to improve. And perhaps, we won't play the colts in the playoffs.

Regarding third down, I do think some of it can be attributed to trying to work the clock, prevent a big play and quick score when leading late in the game (Cincy, Buffalo, Miami, San Diego.) However that does not mean the Pats don't have an issue - as evidenced by the three comebacks in those games. In other words the third-down defense is probably not quite as bad as the stats would indicate because of the circumstances, but on the other hand it certainly does need to improve.


By the way, I just stumbled across this site that has all kinds of sortable stats for folks that enjoy looking at that type of thing. One nice thing they do is make their stat rankings per game, making for better comparisons between teams that have played a different number of games due to their bye week.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage on TeamRankings.com

 

[spacecrime]

Much ado about nothing. We're at 48%, the league average is at 38%.

Do you realize how meaningless that is?

Round to 50% and 40%.

That means for every 10 third downs, the league allows 4 and we allow 5.

Whoop-de-hoop-de-doo.

With 60 defensive snaps a game, figure no more that 20 third downs a game, probably more like 10. But even with 20 third downs, it means the Pats allow TWO more conversions than leaague average. Could be only ONE more if much less that 20 third downs per game, as I suspect.

It is far more important WHEN and WHERE the conversions take place than the raw number.

There is nothing stopping the Pats from going 5-1, 10-3, 13-3 while allowing one or two more third down conversions per game.

Is it ideal? No. Should they be working on it? Yes.

But net punting average to change field position will have a greater effect on the game than one or two third down conversions more than everyone else.

 

[DarrylS]

Fans get all hung up on statistics, in reality there is only one thing that counts the final score.. the destination is not the journey, my little crickets... OHHMMMMMM!!!!

 

[ALP]

thats means we have the largest potential for getting better on 3rd down than ANY other team in the league...

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

The one issue with this is that I'm fairly sure the D has improved relative to the beginning of the season; in other words, if you look at the last three games relative to the first three, you'd see at least some improvement.

I agree, for the first few games the defense didn't put down a 3 and out on the opposition. That changed in Miami, with a few 3 and out series, even more so against Baltimore.

The defense is improving, still not great, but it's not making mistakes that cost us ballgames.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Fact: We're better than I expected at this point
Fact: We're improving
Fact: We're winning
Fact: Even if we don't win it all this year, we're set up to win the next 3 in a row! (ok, maybe less fact and more opinion...)

 

[mgteich]

Choose to believe as you choose. Th reality is that IF WE WERE TO CONTINUE AT THIS PACE, we'd have the worst 3rd down performance in 15 years. And perhaps, we could overcome it by having a couple of special teams touchdowns or a couple of high school quality mistakes by the other team.

We could just accept that is OK to have the worst third down defense in the Belichick era OR we could recognize the problem and focus on it with laser focus, knowing that there needs to be major improvement in order to be expected to go to the Super Bowl.

I suggest that Belichick and the staff sees the performance on 3rd down as a major issue for this team.

Much ado about nothing. We're at 48%, the league average is at 38%.

Do you realize how meaningless that is?

Round to 50% and 40%.

That means for every 10 third downs, the league allows 4 and we allow 5.

Whoop-de-hoop-de-doo.

With 60 defensive snaps a game, figure no more that 20 third downs a game, probably more like 10. But even with 20 third downs, it means the Pats allow TWO more conversions than leaague average. Could be only ONE more if much less that 20 third downs per game, as I suspect.

It is far more important WHEN and WHERE the conversions take place than the raw number.

There is nothing stopping the Pats from going 5-1, 10-3, 13-3 while allowing one or two more third down conversions per game.

Is it ideal? No. Should they be working on it? Yes.

But net punting average to change field position will have a greater effect on the game than one or two third down conversions more than everyone else.