Definitely defer. Not only because of the good reasons already given, but because of the following
1. If we take the ball first, not only will the crowd make it difficult to move the ball, but whatever new wrinkles the Denver defense will have for this game will be on display and most effective in that first drive It might seem that a great scoring drive to start the game is a good thing, but, on the road, that first drive, for a lot of reasons, makes it the most difficult drive of the game. It would be much worse for the team to go 3 and out on the first drive.
2. The ability to make in-game adjustments, quickly and effectively is one of the advantages we will have. So even if we kick it to Denver and they score (worst case), as the game goes on and how teams react to the other teams' game plan becomes more important, at least THAT advantage shifts toward us. All culminating in that first drive of the 2nd half
3. So along with the crowd noise, the new defensive wrinkles that Denver will show, we would also have to overcome those early big game jitters. Of course they fade after a few plays, but since offensive football is relies so much on precision, even one mistake could kill that drive. OTOH, those jitters affect the defense less.
4.By kicking off first to Denver, not only would their offense have to overcome their jitters, our defensive new wrinkles would be at their most effective, making it more likely that Denver would have to punt.
5. The crowd will never be louder than they will on that first drive.
BOTTOM LINE - if the game were at home, you MIGHT give it a thought to take the ball first. But on the road, its not even a question. IMHO, it will be a big break for the Pats if they get the opportunity to defer. BTW- I guarantee that if Denver wins the toss, they will absolutely defer and KO.