Should Patriots defer if they win the toss?

[Ring 6]

Take the ball. Play from ahead. Make Denver one dimensional.

They start that way.

 

[patfanken]

Definitely defer. Not only because of the good reasons already given, but because of the following

1. If we take the ball first, not only will the crowd make it difficult to move the ball, but whatever new wrinkles the Denver defense will have for this game will be on display and most effective in that first drive It might seem that a great scoring drive to start the game is a good thing, but, on the road, that first drive, for a lot of reasons, makes it the most difficult drive of the game. It would be much worse for the team to go 3 and out on the first drive.

2. The ability to make in-game adjustments, quickly and effectively is one of the advantages we will have. So even if we kick it to Denver and they score (worst case), as the game goes on and how teams react to the other teams' game plan becomes more important, at least THAT advantage shifts toward us. All culminating in that first drive of the 2nd half

3. So along with the crowd noise, the new defensive wrinkles that Denver will show, we would also have to overcome those early big game jitters. Of course they fade after a few plays, but since offensive football is relies so much on precision, even one mistake could kill that drive. OTOH, those jitters affect the defense less.

4.By kicking off first to Denver, not only would their offense have to overcome their jitters, our defensive new wrinkles would be at their most effective, making it more likely that Denver would have to punt.

5. The crowd will never be louder than they will on that first drive.

BOTTOM LINE - if the game were at home, you MIGHT give it a thought to take the ball first. But on the road, its not even a question. IMHO, it will be a big break for the Pats if they get the opportunity to defer. BTW- I guarantee that if Denver wins the toss, they will absolutely defer and KO.

 

[PatsFan24]

Yes, the Patriots should defer because I want Manning to throw a pick 6 on his first throw of Denver's first possession.

Manning could throw a pick-six on his first pass of Denver's first possession even in the Patriots get the ball first.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Manning could throw a pick-six on his first pass of Denver's first possession even in the Patriots get the ball first.

he is talking about the momentum that would have right off the bat. I also want a pick 6 on first play of their first drive

 

[RayClay]

They start that way.

One RB ran for over 200 last game. His arm isn't as strong as it used to be and i like our secondary and Collins to cover if we're ahead. Limit his options and I think we get some picks.

 

[supafly]

I think we should start out on defense and defer.

That is normally the protocol, so we should treat it the same and continue with that. No reason to change too much up at this point. The team plays every game to win, and this one obviously will be no different.

This isn't even bringing up the double score potential to end the half and open up the second half--which it seems Belichick believes in a lot.

 

[supafly]

One RB ran for over 200 last game.

That was Knowshon Moneno, who had over 1,000 yards rushing with a 4.3 YPC and 10 TDs this season.

As a whole their rushing totals for the season totaled 192 yds less than ours, and the average game came in at 117 vs our 129--for a total of 12 yds less per game.

Not exactly sure how that makes them one dimensional myself, especially since their rush offense probably favors them vs our rush defense, whereas our rush offense may be better overall, but is going up against a top 7 unit.

 

[PATS16N0]

Always defer.

I swear teenagers in the 90's understood this better from playing Madden than actual real football coaches did.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hey guys want to know your take on this. If the Pats win the toss should they defer get the first possession in the second half, or get the ball first to set the tone??

Defer, unless the weather surprisingly changes significantly and wind somehow becomes a factor.

 

[Triumph]

Take the ball.

Limit Peytons possessions by going on a clock chewing drive. The Pats dont have a problem with crowd noise that Im aware of. The Colts dome was louder IMO. Even so, if the Pats defer and Manning scores a TD on his first possession, the crowd will only be that much more into it.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

It is nice to get the ball after half time but this is the best offense
in the league today. If Broncos get up by two scores in a game like
this the rookies are going to be feeling a lot of pressure. Not saying
PATS can't come back but it would be hard.

So in this game I would go for PATS NOT deferring if they have the call.

It would be impossible to come back from two scores down against the best offense in the league. Imagine if we fell behind by even more, something like 24-0...

I think we defer for the same reason BB took the wind in OT in that game. You give up the short-term advantage to gain the long-term advantage.

Yes, there's a risk in falling behind. There's also a risk in starting with the ball too and going 3-and-out and giving them great field position. There's a risk in everything that happens. But strategically it gives you more options to start with the ball in the second half, and can shape how you even end the first half.

 

[JR4]

It would be impossible to come back from two scores down against the best offense in the league. Imagine if we fell behind by even more, something like 24-0...

I think we defer for the same reason BB took the wind in OT in that game. You give up the short-term advantage to gain the long-term advantage.

Yes, there's a risk in falling behind. There's also a risk in starting with the ball too and going 3-and-out and giving them great field position. There's a risk in everything that happens. But strategically it gives you more options to start with the ball in the second half, and can shape how you even end the first half.

Falling behind early in this game by two scores would be very hard to
overcome. (IMO considering the venue and the pressure on rookies)

In the first few possessions of the game teams are testing and trying
to get a feel for what the other team is doing. Once you have some
information early adjustments can be made.

To play the odds that PATS won't be down by two scores after the first 3 possessions then PATS should have the first possession.

So goes: PATS | Broncos | PATS
if Broncos score PATS would have had two shots at evening the score.
But
IF if goes Broncos | PATS | Broncos
PATS only have one shot to even the score and it may even find itself
down by two scores early in the game

Given the venue and that Broncos offense is very very good,
if Broncos get the ball first there is a good chance PATS could find themselves down two scores early in the game.

 

[Triumph]

Take a page out of the Saints gameplan in the NO vs Indy Super Bowl.

Onside kick to start the 2nd half if conditions are right. UnBelickick like but if the gamble was successful, it would suck the air out of Sports Authority field.

 

[Ring 6]

Falling behind early in this game by two scores would be very hard to
overcome. (IMO considering the venue and the pressure on rookies)

In the first few possessions of the game teams are testing and trying
to get a feel for what the other team is doing. Once you have some
information early adjustments can be made.

To play the odds that PATS won't be down by two scores after the first 3 possessions then PATS should have the first possession.

So goes: PATS | Broncos | PATS
if Broncos score PATS would have had two shots at evening the score.
But
IF if goes Broncos | PATS | Broncos
PATS only have one shot to even the score and it may even find itself
down by two scores early in the game

Given the venue and that Broncos offense is very very good,
if Broncos get the ball first there is a good chance PATS could find themselves down two scores early in the game.

if you want to build a strategy based on never being able to stop the other team you might as well not show up.

 

[Ring 6]

One RB ran for over 200 last game. His arm isn't as strong as it used to be and i like our secondary and Collins to cover if we're ahead. Limit his options and I think we get some picks.

Because we begged them to run. They are a on dimensional team who we WANT to run the ball. "Making them one-dimensional" isn't accomplishing anything.

 

[primetime]

Statistically speaking, on average the team who gets the ball in the second half has about one more possession than the team who gets the ball in the first half. As such, you should always defer - there's a strong correlation between winning and having more possessions, for fairly obvious reasons. Ultimately it comes down to execution and a lot of luck, but any little advantage helps.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Yes. It's what we do.

 

[JR4]

if you want to build a strategy based on never being able to stop the other team you might as well not show up.

who said "never"? That is a hyperbole is ever there was one.

The "strategy" is based on a knowing who you are playing, where you
are playing and trying to have better odds at preventing the game from
get off to a bad start. "never"?

Talk about being scared. How about the idea, many here express, of
needing to having the ball to start the second half just in case we are behind.
BTW, the idea of having the 2 possession in a row is absolutely not a
guarantee.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

If we defer, we might be down 14-0 in the first quarter alone and next thing you know we're going for it on 4th down early in an effort to keep up. I say we go first, we get a lead and from that point we do everything we can to maintain that lead until the end.Also being down early sort of makes you predicable.

 

[patchick]

Defer, unless the weather surprisingly changes significantly and wind somehow becomes a factor.

:yeahthat:

The only time I'd want the ball first -- especially on the road -- is when developing weather patterns point toward it. E.g. it's just starting to sleet lightly but promises to worsen, or the wind keeps shifting but right now is in your favor.