Shotgun used more than half the snaps in 2007-2008

[unoriginal]

Seeing as I've got about 5 different posts from maverick4 to respond to, I'm going to organize his quotes and respond to them by topic.

we don't know whether average depth of 5 yards is above, below, or at the league norm. We need context as to what that number means, which we don't have. We also don't have info about whether the average depth is longer or shorter when we use shot gun. Those numbers are like the total run/pass ratio numbers, it doesn't tell us much, we need a break down of what it looks like under shot gun.

Given that (as you noted elsewhere) we know 433 of Matt Cassel's 516 passes were attempted from the shotgun, we know shotgun passes were the dominant influence on our passing offense. If we had data for all 32 teams, one would think everything would balance out, considering other teams with more typical under-center passing offenses also use the shotgun.

Here now is a list of all 32 NFL teams from 2008 and their Average Catch depth data, laboriously compiled:

Team		YAC	Yards	Rec	Avg. Catch Depth
Cincinnati	1238	2677	303	4.75
[B]New England	2154	3790	339	4.83[/B]
New York Jets	1808	3516	347	4.92
Washington	1699	3291	318	5.01
Tennessee	1459	2902	265	5.45
Chicago		1564	3229	304	5.48
Buffalo		1569	3302	309	5.61
St Louis	1615	3268	292	5.66
Tampa Bay	1736	3788	355	5.78
Cleveland	1136	2537	238	5.89
Oakland		1302	2639	222	6.02
Seattle		1251	2831	262	6.03
Philadelphia	1876	4060	362	6.03
Kansas City	1452	3358	310	6.15
Arizona		2294	4875	418	6.17
Indianapolis	1748	4180	393	6.19
Baltimore	1454	3085	261	6.25
San Francisco	1782	3724	309	6.28
Minnesota	1525	3217	267	6.34
Jacksonville	1494	3620	335	6.35
Houston		2134	4474	367	6.38
New Orleans	2398	5069	413	6.47
Dallas		1831	3988	328	6.58
Miami		1566	3761	330	6.65
Denver		1891	4545	386	6.88
Detroit		1353	3299	281	6.93
San Diego	1840	4009	312	6.95
Pittsburgh	1498	3607	303	6.96
Green Bay	1656	4044	343	6.96
New York Giants	1250	3353	298	7.06
Atlanta		1404	3440	265	7.68
Carolina	1269	3288	246	8.21

This data is a little different from the stuff Football Outsiders reported. I got my stats from Stats Inc.

As you can see, the Pats were throwing on average the 2nd shortest passes in the league last year, and these passes were between 1 and 2 full yards shorter than most of the teams in the league.

This data indicates the Pats' shotgun offense does not require the QB to wait long for routes to develop.

 

[unoriginal]

Looking at run/pass ratio of ALL plays is meaningless in figuring out which teams are "run-emphasis" teams, because almost all teams pass more than run, so even most run-emphasis teams won't be found just looking at total pass/run ratio.

Just because most teams pass more than they run doesn't make the data meaningless. There is actually quite a difference in the ratio each year between teams with clear tendencies and the league average, as well as teams on both end of the spectrum. You do catch the one area where the stat is flawed here:

2. The problem is you're still looking at things from overall run/pass ratio, which is mis-guided, rather than trying to figure out whether it is obvious for an opposing defense to know what when an offense lines up in a certain formation or personnel, that it makes things easier for them to pass rush or hit the QB. Pass-emphasis teams try to win the game by passing, then running to kill the clock. We don't have the in-game data over all recent games and years, but I would argue that the Patriots (as are the other teams on that QB hit list) are pass-emphasis teams which try to win games by passing firs, and run just for balance.

Yes, it would be better if we had only 1st half stats, because 2nd half play calls can be influenced by time and score concerns. But we don't, and I'm not going to invest the time to get them myself. Nevertheless, the 2nd half skew affects all teams in league; there are quite a few teams on the following lists that lead as often the Pats, but run the ball far less:

2008

Team		Pass	Run	Pass %
Baltimore	433	592	42
Atlanta		434	560	44
Carolina	414	504	45
Minnesota	452	519	47
Tennessee	453	508	47
Oakland		421	459	48
New York Giants	491	502	49
[B][COLOR="#0000ff"]New England	534	513	51[/COLOR][/B]
Washington	510	478	52
Buffalo		479	439	52
Miami		491	448	52
Pittsburgh	506	460	52
San Diego	478	421	53
Seattle		474	417	53
Cleveland	488	409	54
Chicago		528	434	55
Cincinnati	513	420	55
Green Bay	541	437	55
Tampa Bay	562	451	55
St Louis	520	417	55
New York Jets	529	422	56
Jacksonville	537	426	56
San Francisco	509	397	56
Houston		555	432	56
Dallas		547	401	58
Philadelphia	606	427	59
Kansas City	541	379	59
Detroit		509	352	59
Indianapolis	585	370	61
New Orleans	636	398	62
Denver		620	387	62
Arizona		630	340	65

2007

Team		Pass	Run	Pass %
Tennessee	464	543	46
Pittsburgh	442	511	46
Minnesota	432	494	47
Oakland		451	508	47
Jacksonville	469	522	47
San Diego	471	485	49
Buffalo		445	448	50
Washington	525	498	51
Tampa Bay	490	449	52
Carolina	505	451	53
New York Jets	512	446	53
New York Giants	544	469	54
Denver		515	429	55
Indianapolis	551	446	55
Cleveland	545	440	55
Baltimore	557	446	56
Dallas		531	419	56
Houston		529	417	56
[B][COLOR="#0000ff"]New England	586	451	57[/COLOR][/B]
Chicago		569	430	57
Philadelphia	577	421	58
Seattle		590	430	58
Cincinnati	575	417	58
St Louis	574	404	59
Miami		558	389	59
San Francisco	513	357	59
Atlanta		555	385	59
Arizona		590	402	59
Kansas City	563	383	60
Green Bay	578	388	60
New Orleans	652	392	62
Detroit		587	324	64

2006

Team		Pass	Run	Pass %
Atlanta		416	537	44
Jacksonville	446	513	47
Kansas City	450	513	47
San Diego	466	522	47
Denver		454	488	48
Tennessee	447	469	49
Washington	470	490	49
New York Jets	488	491	50
San Francisco	444	439	50
Chicago		514	503	51
Buffalo		431	420	51
[B][COLOR="Blue"]New England	527	499	51[/COLOR][/B]
Seattle		512	484	51
Dallas		506	472	52
Baltimore	524	476	52
Pittsburgh	523	469	53
Houston		481	431	53
New York Giants	523	455	53
Cincinnati	523	435	55
Minnesota	540	442	55
Oakland		483	394	55
New Orleans	580	472	55
Indianapolis	557	439	56
Carolina	539	423	56
Arizona		545	419	57
Philadelphia	544	416	57
Tampa Bay	535	404	57
Cleveland	511	372	58
St Louis	592	424	58
Green Bay	630	431	59
Miami		591	402	60
Detroit		596	304	66

The Pats have tended to run a very balanced offense the last few years, and the one year we went pass heavy was the year the QB was hit the least, both net and gross.

 

[unoriginal]

In 2008 we passed 534 times, and from the article 433 of those passes were from shot gun. We ran 513 times, for 1034 total plays. When we are in shot gun, the vast majority of plays are passes. Is this, or is this not, a huge giveaway to the opposing defensive linemen and linebackers?

Wouldn't you agree that opposing defensive coordinators do have this data, and do know (as we do based on the little info we have) that based on how many times we pass, and how many times we pass out of shotgun (provided in the original article), that they ARE able to key on us when we are in shot gun?

Yes, it is a bit of a tell. As you noted, Cassel passed 433 times from the shotgun, and elsewhere Football Outsiders noted we ran 67 draws from the shotgun. I'm not sure if draws are all we ran out of the shotgun; I suspect they aren't. But even figuring conservatively that's around a 5:1 pass-run ratio.

On the other hand, these shotgun passes tended to be short, as I demonstrated two posts above.

And what we don't have yet is anything suggesting defensive coordinators have been able to use this tell to their advantage. We have data indicating Brady was getting hit less and with less frequency in a shotgun offense, and Football Outsiders has provided us all kinds of data demonstrating our passing and running games are most effective when running out of shotgun.

Most of the evidence we do have seems to point towards the defense as being the reason we weren't successful last year, less so Cassel and even less so the shotgun. That's also the feeling I've been getting from the drafts and free agency the last few years; we're rebuilding the defense and maintaining the offense.

1. I agree with you, which is why in the original statement I argued that it had to do with style of play, rather than some simplistic measure of total pass/run ratio cross-matched with QB hits. As an example, the reason the 01 Pats beat the Rams is because they noticed that the explosive stats-breaking Rams ran a disproportionately high number of plays for slants, in-cuts, and passes to Marshall Faulk. They chipped Faulk using linebackers, and destroyed receivers catching slants and in-cuts in the Superbowl. The reason that offense was defeated was because they kept using the same formations/plays over and over, even though the defense knew what was coming. I argue that this same stubborn-ness currently applies to the Pats as well, in which opposing D's KNOW we will pass when we are in shot gun.

One of the defining features of the Pats' shotgun spread versus Martz' vertical passing game is that the Pats' does not encourage the QB to turn the ball over at nearly the same rate. In that Super Bowl, the Rams had 3 turnovers, the Patriots none. If other teams know what is coming, one of the things we should see is more turnovers. But that is not the case, as Cassel only threw 11 interceptions in 2008, less than all but one of Brady's seasons — and Brady threw only 8 interceptions in 2007, the lowest total of his career.

A lot of the reason the Rams lost that game — and eventually fell off the map franchise-wise — was due to a fading defense. The fact you equate defeating the Rams with defeating their offense demonstrates the point.

The Rams' defense has been at or around the bottom of the statistical categories since about 2002, and was middling before then. Postseason success in 1999 and 2001 was driven by good defensive performance, while 2000 was a dissappointment not because the offense dropped off, but because the defense did.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Just because most teams pass more than they run doesn't make the data meaningless. There is actually quite a difference in the ratio each year between teams with clear tendencies and the league average, as well as teams on both end of the spectrum. You do catch the one area where the stat is flawed here:



Yes, it would be better if we had only 1st half stats, because 2nd half play calls can be influenced by time and score concerns. But we don't, and I'm not going to invest the time to get them myself. Nevertheless, the 2nd half skew affects all teams in league; there are quite a few teams on the following lists that lead as often the Pats, but run the ball far less:

2008

Team		Pass	Run	Pass %
Baltimore	433	592	42
Atlanta		434	560	44
Carolina	414	504	45
Minnesota	452	519	47
Tennessee	453	508	47
Oakland		421	459	48
New York Giants	491	502	49
[B][COLOR="#0000ff"]New England	534	513	51[/COLOR][/B]
Washington	510	478	52
Buffalo		479	439	52
Miami		491	448	52
Pittsburgh	506	460	52
San Diego	478	421	53
Seattle		474	417	53
Cleveland	488	409	54
Chicago		528	434	55
Cincinnati	513	420	55
Green Bay	541	437	55
Tampa Bay	562	451	55
St Louis	520	417	55
New York Jets	529	422	56
Jacksonville	537	426	56
San Francisco	509	397	56
Houston		555	432	56
Dallas		547	401	58
Philadelphia	606	427	59
Kansas City	541	379	59
Detroit		509	352	59
Indianapolis	585	370	61
New Orleans	636	398	62
Denver		620	387	62
Arizona		630	340	65

2007

Team		Pass	Run	Pass %
Tennessee	464	543	46
Pittsburgh	442	511	46
Minnesota	432	494	47
Oakland		451	508	47
Jacksonville	469	522	47
San Diego	471	485	49
Buffalo		445	448	50
Washington	525	498	51
Tampa Bay	490	449	52
Carolina	505	451	53
New York Jets	512	446	53
New York Giants	544	469	54
Denver		515	429	55
Indianapolis	551	446	55
Cleveland	545	440	55
Baltimore	557	446	56
Dallas		531	419	56
Houston		529	417	56
[B][COLOR="#0000ff"]New England	586	451	57[/COLOR][/B]
Chicago		569	430	57
Philadelphia	577	421	58
Seattle		590	430	58
Cincinnati	575	417	58
St Louis	574	404	59
Miami		558	389	59
San Francisco	513	357	59
Atlanta		555	385	59
Arizona		590	402	59
Kansas City	563	383	60
Green Bay	578	388	60
New Orleans	652	392	62
Detroit		587	324	64

2006

Team		Pass	Run	Pass %
Atlanta		416	537	44
Jacksonville	446	513	47
Kansas City	450	513	47
San Diego	466	522	47
Denver		454	488	48
Tennessee	447	469	49
Washington	470	490	49
New York Jets	488	491	50
San Francisco	444	439	50
Chicago		514	503	51
Buffalo		431	420	51
[B][COLOR="Blue"]New England	527	499	51[/COLOR][/B]
Seattle		512	484	51
Dallas		506	472	52
Baltimore	524	476	52
Pittsburgh	523	469	53
Houston		481	431	53
New York Giants	523	455	53
Cincinnati	523	435	55
Minnesota	540	442	55
Oakland		483	394	55
New Orleans	580	472	55
Indianapolis	557	439	56
Carolina	539	423	56
Arizona		545	419	57
Philadelphia	544	416	57
Tampa Bay	535	404	57
Cleveland	511	372	58
St Louis	592	424	58
Green Bay	630	431	59
Miami		591	402	60
Detroit		596	304	66

The Pats have tended to run a very balanced offense the last few years, and the one year we went pass heavy was the year the QB was hit the least, both net and gross.

First off, awesome work unoriginal- fantastic data, which should finally put all of this crap to bed. I'd like to elaborate a bit, as well, to further drive the point.

For example. I'd point out that, of the two teams that ran as the highest percentage in 2008, both were starting rookie QBs. Followed by Carolina (Delhomme), Minnesota (Tavaris/Frerotte), Tennessee (Young/Kerry Collins' first year in the offense, no receivers to speak of), Oakland (Russell) and the Giants. Those were the teams that ran more than the Patriots. And not that it particularly matters, but it does to someone like maverick, who absolutely lives for small sample sizes: I'd also note that these 5 teams won a combined 0 playoff games in 2008. So this whole premise that the solution to winning in the playoffs is to run more just isn't isn't supported by the data.

Go back a little further, if you want, and you'll see that in 2007, Tennessee was running at the highest percentage and, coincidentally enough, had Vince Young as their QB. In 2006, Atlanta was running the most with Michael Vick at QB. What I'm basically saying is that I'd propose that, on the rare occasion that you do find a truly run-dominated offense, it's as often as not because the QB sucks and/or is inexperienced, and as a result incapable of running a better offense. When you have an asset like Tom Brady, you'd have to be stupid not to use the hell out of him.

 

[DaBruinz]

And this proves your previous desperate assertion that Belichick added these guys as a sign of his faith to continue using MORE shotgun... HOW?????

First of all, its shows it because they'll run the shotgun with a 2 TE set, 2 WRs, and a RB. Guess what that requires? 2 TEs capable of blocking (Smith and Baker), the RB by committee that BB has run most of his time here in NE, and healthy offensive linemen..

Maverick, you are the one who has proven, time and again, to be desperate. You are the one who continues to go around and around and ignore what all the intelligent posters on this site have been telling you. They have such a better understanding of this offense that you make them look like they have PhDs in football compared to your kindergarten understanding. You seriously just need to stop because the assertions you've made go from half-truth to down-right lies. Its old and tired.

 

[DaBruinz]

Belichick gave Mangini tons of leeway most of that season even though the on-field defensive performance was terrible, until very late into the season. This shows you how much autonomy he gives his coordinators, even with BB's background/expertise in defense. In McDaniels' case, he's been blessed with superior talent and Tom Brady, which makes it VERY hard to not produce.

BB took over the defense on game 9 that season. That's not "very late into the season. Also, McDaniels produced with Matt Cassel under center as well. A fact you so conveniently forget.

And yet you still can't do the math. It's very easy to figure out and see that when we are in shotgun formation, we very often PASS the ball. It makes it very easy for defenders to just sprint up field and pass rush whenever they see us lined up in shot gun.

I run circles around you when it comes to math. You just can't comprehend what you are reading. And you prove that time and again. You don't seem to understand that just because a team lines up in the Shotgun formation, it doesn't automatically telegraph that they are going to pass. In fact, none of the information you provided actually shows how many times they RUN from the shotgun formation. All you provided was that the Patriots ran more than 50% of their plays from the shotgun formation.

Also, it doesn't "make it very easy for defenders to just sprint up field and pass rush" whenever they see the Pats in the shotgun because the Pats still have a very good running game. And the Patriots DO run the ball out of the shotgun.

Yet more making up crap and baseless insults, because you're losing your arguments (a clear pattern from you). It's obvious I sided with the Pats and Belichick on that one, and knew Tom Jackson made up that quote.

First of all, I wasn't making things up. I was pointing out that Tom Jackson made claims all over the place that he had insider information that the players on the team hated their coach. It was RUMOR. Just like the garbage you posted about the Broncos players. If you can't see the parallels between you listening to RUMORS on AOL and listening to Rumors from Tom Jackson, you clearly don't belong posting.

What baseless insult? You copied what I said and there was no insult to you. YOU are the only one making things up here and its your pattern, not mine. I am not you. I don't need to lie and ignore facts when they are pointed out to me.

I know Jay Cutler is a little immature baby, so what, it doesn't help your point. It still doesn't discount the lack of social grace or situational behavior on McDaniels' part. First the guy publicly denies trying to trade Cutler, then admits he was a liar, then tries to fix things with text messages instead of phone calls/meetings, then he acts like a douche in a face to face meeting saying no one is untradable (not understanding he didn't need to say that), then he backtracks again by trading him. It's not just Broncos fans, a lot of people around the country are wondering what the hell he is doing. It's not about exploring the trade in the first place, it's how he mis-handled the whole situation afterward.

How does Jay Cutler being a known crybaby NOT help my point? On the contrary. It only reinforces my point. Cutler shot his way out of town because his ego refused to let him believe that McDaniels never asked the Patriots or the Buccaneers about a trade and that the Broncos were the ones approached. That's fact.

McDaniels never said he tried to trade Cutler. What he said was the Buccaneers approached them about a 3 way deal. Also, McDaniels didn't trade Cutler. McDaniels doesn't have that power. Pat Bowlen had his GM trade Cutler after Bowlen sat down with Cutler and Cutler demanded the trade because his ego wouldn't let him realize the truth.

Man, you are so far gone with believeing everything you read in the media that it proves you biased hatred for McDaniels.

 

[DaBruinz]

McKid isn't BB. Belichick lacks social grace, but is a master of situational awareness when it comes to football, maybe the best ever.

This just shows that you don't understand the dynamic that the Patriots have on their team with BB and the Coordinators. While the Pats coordinators have autonomy, BB still wears the HC headset and he hears everything that goes on. And if he believes that something won't work, he'll pipe in. He's said so. He's said that everything gets his final say before going onto the field. So, what makes you believe that he'd allow plays that didn't show situational awareness to be called in?

You can't have it both ways, Maverick.

 

[DaBruinz]

They aren't in shotgun as much as Brady is. All I'm saying is, it would be flat out stupid to put a guy in shotgun on most plays after coming off of a major injury. If the Pats continue right where they left off, they're asking for it.

Its already been established that the "hit while throwing" is ambiguous because it doesn't define what they consider a hit. That makes the stat subjective. Is a hit ANY contact between an a defensive player and the QB? Does it include penalties for unnecessary roughness or illegal hits to the head? Does it include sacks? If not, why not? Sacks occur on passing plays.

Next, between the two threads, they are actually talking about 3 different years. The "most hits" came from 2006 and 2007, yet, here in the shotgun thread, they are talking about 2007 and 2008. So, how can an accurate correlation be made?

Next, you mention that Brady got injured twice in 3 games. Can you tell me what formation Brady was in when he suffered the foot injury? Or is it just your assumption that he was in the shotgun?

 

[DaBruinz]

Over a two year period Tom Brady was "hit while throwing" the most in the leagu. Additionally, it very unambiguously counts "hits while throwing", something you didn't catch before either and tried to nitpick at. This stat still has value, no matter how much you want to dismiss it.

The "hits while throwing stat" is very ambiguous because it doesn't define what they consider to be a hit. Also, why are they limiting it to just hits while throwing? Do sacks not count? Sacks occur on passing plays so why ignore them?

As for shot gun, it gives the QB a better spot to see all the receivers and saves a few seconds from having to drop back. For slower developing plays, and with a fearless player like Brady who will stand in the pocket and make the tough throw, it may actually increase risk which you keep discounting. For you to continue to argue that shot gun actually protects the QB, when there is a stat showing how much Brady got hit more than almost any other QB, is hilarious.

The problem here, Mav, is that you are taking a subjective stat and saying that its valid because of another stat. Yet, I know, for a fact, that the Patriots have rushed out of the shotgun. You've not provided the breakdown of Rushing plays to Passing plays that the Patriots make out of the shotgun.

The other problem is that your subjective stat covers 2 years. However, the shotgun information only covers one. How do you know that Brady was hit more in 2007 than in 2006 since the article didn't provide that breakdown. Also, how do you know that Brady was hit more from the Shotgun than from the other formations? Just because he ran the shotgun more doesn't mean he was hit more in that formation. That's an assumption on your part.

For you to be definitive, you'd have to provide the following information:
2006 - Number of plays run from the shotgun
2006 - Number of times Brady was "hit while throwing"
2007 - Number of times Brady was "hit while throwing"
2006 - Number of times Brady was "hit while throwing" from the shotgun formation
2007 - Number of times Brady was "hit while throwing" from the shotgun formation.

Nothing you've provided answers those questions.

 

[DaBruinz]

I am actually educated in stats as well and use it when looking at clinical research studies. I agree with you that in general there are many other factors that need to be looked at to reach any definitive conclusion. Unfortunately as you've discovered yourself, there isn't that much information on the subject, and I'm only presenting it as something interesting and something to look at.

You've gone out of your way to attempt to shove it down everyone's throats that the shotgun is bad and that it has led to Brady being hit more. The hypocrisy of this post is quite amusing.

For the same reason it's very difficult to statistically prove the link between Brady leading the league in "hits on QB while throwing" and with the fact that the Pats were the only team ever to have over 50% of snaps from shot gun for at least two years, it's also difficult to disprove it as well.

So, because its "difficult to disprove," you think that makes your assertions correct? On the contrary. Its very easy to point out the information you are missing and say that you can't jump to the conclusions you are making as a result. That has been my basis in replying to you. That your assumptions are seriously flawed. And you just went and admitted to it.

 

[Ring 6]

I think the central issue here is that many posters believe that the shotgun only exists because it is a way to give QBs more time and reduce pressure, in other words, OCs put a QB in the shot gun to HELP him. But Maverick appears to believe that the shotgun is detrimental to the offense, and he could teach all of the OCs who use it a lesson about offense.
I believe that the OCs know what they are doing, at least more than a fan who post on a message board and uses a partial, incomplete statistic as justification for why he can design and offense better than a porfessional.

 

[DaBruinz]

In 2008 we passed 534 times, and from the article 433 of those passes were from shot gun. We ran 513 times, for 1034 total plays. When we are in shot gun, the vast majority of plays are passes. Is this, or is this not, a huge giveaway to the opposing defensive linemen and linebackers?

How many of the 513 running plays were run from the shotgun formation? was it 10? Or was it 233? If it was 233, then you have to play both the pass and the run as a defender. You can't just assume one or the other.

It's as big a giveaway as when the Pats defeated the 01 Rams based on their repeated tendency for slants, in-cuts, and outlets to Faulk.
New England Patriots Stats

What was the tendency for the Patriots? In 2007, they had 6 players with 36 or more receptions. In 2008, they had 4 players with 38 or more. Just because a team has a tendency to pass out of the shotgun, it doesn't mean it makes it easier for the defense to rush the passer. Particularly if there are 3 or more receivers on the field. The defense has to account for those receivers. If they don't then it leaves a player open for Brady to hit in stride on a modified route. Remember in any given formation, each receiver has 5 or 6 different routes he can run based on the defensive alignment. With 3 receivers, that is 125 different looks that the defense could see.

Shows how much we passed even in 2005 and in 2006, with less talented WR's:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...d/10/45643-run-attempts-vs-pass-attempts.html

[With the reemergence of the 2007 playbook and 500-plus yards in each of the last two games, the Patriots offense, again almost entirely a PASS-FIRST OFFENSE, is looking very much like a record-setting group once more.]
Foresight: Josh McDaniels passes Patriots by vaunted Steelers defense - Eye on Foxborough - MassLive.com

How much a team passes doesn't make a difference when they could have as many as 3125 different play combinations (5 receives with 5 potential routes each). What matters is whether the defense can shut them down by getting the QB without leaving a person open. The Giants were able to do it because of the different stunts and rushes they did with 4 and 5 men, leaving then with 7 or 6 men to drop into coverage.

 

[efin98]

I think the central issue here is that many posters believe that the shotgun only exists because it is a way to give QBs more time and reduce pressure, in other words, OCs put a QB in the shot gun to HELP him. But Maverick appears to believe that the shotgun is detrimental to the offense, and he could teach all of the OCs who use it a lesson about offense.
I believe that the OCs know what they are doing, at least more than a fan who post on a message board and uses a partial, incomplete statistic as justification for why he can design and offense better than a porfessional.

Where are the stats for plays run under center vs. plays from the shotgun? What plays were run both ways and what were successful under which as the success/failure of those are the only actual basis for comparison and even then the defenses, offensive formation, and personnel would have to be similar to account for variables in the plays...

Without the statistics to back up the claims against the shotgun there is no real comparison, it's down to an opinion and bias.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Where are the stats for plays run under center vs. plays from the shotgun? What plays were run both ways and what were successful under which as the success/failure of those are the only actual basis for comparison and even then the defenses, offensive formation, and personnel would have to be similar to account for variables in the plays...

Without the statistics to back up the claims against the shotgun there is no real comparison, it's down to an opinion and bias.

Bill and Ernie have custody of those stats. And if they told the story mav wanted them to we wouldn't be operating increasingly out of shotgun or running a spread offense...because BB is a genius, and not just compared to message board posters.

 

[Deus Irae]

Bill and Ernie have custody of those stats. And if they told the story mav wanted them to we wouldn't be operating increasingly out of shotgun or running a spread offense...because BB is a genius, and not just compared to message board posters.

What the hell does Belichick know? He's the clown that hired Weiss and McDaniels as offensive coordinators, for crying out loud!

You know, the way some people parade "BB" around as if it means something, you'd think the guy had won multiple Super Bowls, or had a 16-0 season, or something special like that.

Sheesh!

 

[maverick4]

I think the central issue here is that many posters believe that the shotgun only exists because it is a way to give QBs more time and reduce pressure,

You keep repeating this, even though the stats show Brady was most hit while throwing of any QB over his last two years, and that we use shot gun more than anybody.

Something doesn't compute in your "brilliant" analysis.

 

[maverick4]

Without the statistics to back up the claims against the shotgun there is no real comparison, it's down to an opinion and bias.

I agree with you that if we had all the stats, there wouldn't even be a discussion right now.

That's the whole thing though, you guys also don't have stats to refute that there is zero link between "most hits while throwing" and "over 50% of plays are from shot gun" stats.

 

[maverick4]

...because BB is a genius, and not just compared to message board posters.

Belichick supports our current offense, this was never challenged by me, but at the same time you're crazy if you keep denying that he gives his coordinators tons of autonomy and a long leash, especially if those units are putting up good stats.

 

[maverick4]

Yes, it is a bit of a tell. As you noted, Cassel passed 433 times from the shotgun, and elsewhere Football Outsiders noted we ran 67 draws from the shotgun. I'm not sure if draws are all we ran out of the shotgun; I suspect they aren't. But even figuring conservatively that's around a 5:1 pass-run ratio.

On the other hand, these shotgun passes tended to be short, as I demonstrated two posts above.

And what we don't have yet is anything suggesting defensive coordinators have been able to use this tell to their advantage.

Thanks for pulling those numbers. It certainly is interesting that the numbers you pull suggest a disparate pass/run ratio out of shot gun that could be a HUGE key for opposing defenses. It would be like seeing a team come out with 3 tight ends in a jumbo or goal line formation, and making it easy for the defense to look for and stuffing the run. Of course, we'd need all the stats in order to definitely conclude this. However, the statistical bar for proving this, demanded from some here, is amusing when they don't seem to apply the same standard to any other opinion or thread on this forum.

Your analysis of the fact that shot gun seems to be mostly short passes is also interesting. Based on what you saw, what would you suggest or look at to re-conciliate the high "hits on QB while throwing" number, if in your mind it's not in any way related to shot gun (which is also impossible to disprove since we don't have all the figures)?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Also, it doesn't "make it very easy for defenders to just sprint up field and pass rush" whenever they see the Pats in the shotgun because the Pats still have a very good running game. And the Patriots DO run the ball out of the shotgun.

Not to mention that the Pats ran more screens than any other team in the league last year.