2020 Patriots Season:
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Next Up: at Chargers
Pick Results: NE: 90.9% at LAC: 9.1%

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Dec 6th

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edkk323

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
I agree- we pick late and don’t get 1st round talent so it’s hard to build that young talent pool.
We haven’t done well with our 2nd round picks.
@edkk323 said our drafts have been “not bad”...I feel they are somewhere between mediocre to “not good.”

My suggestion would be stop using your feeling and start using HARD evidence. If this list of draftees is not above avg, I do not know what is. Well, we had two 2rd round DB busts, so all the drafts were below avg?!?

2013
Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson
Round3 Logan Ryan
Round3 Duron Harmon
Round4 Josh Boyce
Round7 Michael Buchanan
Round7 Steve Beauharnais
"Above AVG"
2014
Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
Round4 105 Bryan Stork
Round4 130 James White
Round4 140 Cameron Fleming
"Above AVG"
2015
Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford
Round 3: DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma
Round 4: DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas
Round 4: OG Tre' Jackson, Florida State
Round 4: OG Shaq Mason, Georgia Tech
Round 5: LS Joe Cardona, Navy
"Four starts but one 2rd bust, AVG"
2016
Round2 Cyrus Jones
Round3 Joe Thuney
Round3 Jacoby Brissett
Round3 Vincent Valentine
Round4 Malcolm Mitchell
Round6 Kamu Grugier-Hill
Round6 Elandon Roberts
Round6 Ted Karras
Round7 Devin Lucien
" One starter, one injured WR 3, one QB turned into WR 4, Below AVG"
2017
Round3 Derek Rivers
Round3 Antonio Garcia
Round4 Deatrich Wise Jr.
Round6 Conor McDermott
"One never saw the field, One ok sub"
2018
Round1 Isaiah Wynn
Round1 Sony Michel
Round2 Duke Dawson
Round5 Ja'Whaun Bentley
Round6 Christian Sam
Round6 Braxton Berrios
Round7 Danny Etling
Round7 Keion Crossen
Round7 Ryan Izzo TE
"5 games in, might as well be avg"
 

mgteich

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I would state it a bit differently. We can create some cap room when we need to. For now, we could still continue to sign folks for minimum pay. If they replace others, there is no cost. If they replace someone put on IR, the cost is still well within what we have.

So, yes, I think that the team always has a transaction waiting to happen if we ned cap room.

For me, I want us to make a trade for an upgrade before the trade deadline. We could use an upgrade at backup LB and backup RB. And yes, we can always use a backup SS safety who can play in a dime defense, and can play special teams.

Expect a move soon to create cap room. The cupboard is nearly bare.
 

DarrylS

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Yeah but that doesn't tell me how he was "missing assignments." That just tells me that he broke down over the course of the year. Do you have specific examples of where he "missed assignments?"

Inconsistency denotes missing assignments... if you are consistent you do not miss assignments..

What evidence do you have that he broke down???
 

supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
I would state it a bit differently. We can create some cap room when we need to. For now, we could still continue to sign folks for minimum pay. If they replace others, there is no cost. If they replace someone put on IR, the cost is still well within what we have.

So, yes, I think that the team always has a transaction waiting to happen if we ned cap room.

For me, I want us to make a trade for an upgrade before the trade deadline. We could use an upgrade at backup LB and backup RB. And yes, we can always use a backup SS safety who can play in a dime defense, and can play special teams.
What are your thoughts on how to create some cap space? I am not subscribed to BSJ, so I cannot see Miguel’s proposals.
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
I would state it a bit differently. We can create some cap room when we need to. For now, we could still continue to sign folks for minimum pay. If they replace others, there is no cost. If they replace someone put on IR, the cost is still well within what we have.

So, yes, I think that the team always has a transaction waiting to happen if we ned cap room.

For me, I want us to make a trade for an upgrade before the trade deadline. We could use an upgrade at backup LB and backup RB. And yes, we can always use a backup SS safety who can play in a dime defense, and can play special teams.

I don't have access to BSJ. Did Miguel make any mention of incentive bonuses coming up later in the season that the Pats may need additional cap space to cover?
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
What are your thoughts on how to create some cap space? I am not subscribed to BSJ, so I cannot see Miguel’s proposals.

@luuked made some good suggestions earlier (in another thread). I'd guess that Miguel's projections probably overlapped those, at least bit.
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
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Inconsistency denotes missing assignments... if you are consistent you do not miss assignments..

What evidence do you have that he broke down???
Inconsistency can mean many things. Going against better offensive competition for example. But I don’t remember him missing assignments. And he broke down over the course of the year several times, which was evident when looking at his sacks and pressures down the stretch in those years.

Again, do you have specific examples that you can think of?
 

mgteich

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What are your thoughts on how to create some cap space? I am not subscribed to BSJ, so I cannot see Miguel’s proposals.

First, as Miguel notes, the current amount won't even cover roster bonuses that need to accounted for this year which could total $2.5M, plus the cost of minor signings, and the cost of any lost injury settlements. That is before any major trade or signing.

Miguel has not published his analysis of the possible ways to created space. The most obvious is to estructure Gilmore and/or extend Gostkowski.
 

mgteich

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In addition, any of the following restructures could happen: brady. McCouryt, Gronkowksi, Hightower, Cannon and Allan. I would stay away from the contracts of Brady, gronkowksi, Hightower, and Allan for now.

So, we have restructures of Gilmore, McCourty, Cannon, and an extension of Gostkowski.

First, as Miguel notes, the current amount won't even cover roster bonuses that need to accounted for this year which could total $2.5M, plus the cost of minor signings, and the cost of any lost injury settlements. That is before any major trade or signing.

Miguel has not published his analysis of the possible ways to created space. The most obvious is to estructure Gilmore and/or extend Gostkowski.
 

supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
In addition, any of the following restructures could happen: brady. McCouryt, Gronkowksi, Hightower, Cannon and Allan. I would stay away from the contracts of Brady, gronkowksi, Hightower, and Allan for now.

So, we have restructures of Gilmore, McCourty, Cannon, and an extension of Gostkowski.
Not sure about the McCourty one, if you’re referring to Devin. It would be hard to see him with a higher hit pushed into the future.
 

mgteich

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Not sure about the McCourty one, if you’re referring to Devin. It would be hard to see him with a higher hit pushed into the future.

Higher hits make no difference to me. All but the minimum portion of his 2018 salary can be moved to bonus and spread over the life of his contract. As long as the amount of new money doesn't change, nothing changes in terms of future decisions, except with regard to posters, who often think more of cap hits than new money.
 

supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Higher hits make no difference to me. All but the minimum portion of his 2018 salary can be moved to bonus and spread over the life of his contract. As long as the amount of new money doesn't change, nothing changes in terms of future decisions, except with regard to posters, who often think more of cap hits than new money.
He already has a 13.5m dollar cap hit for next year, which is 3rd highest on the team. It may be hard to justify keeping him as it is.
 

Jlaff

Early Bird Specials
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The Patriots have an economic system in place and keeping Chandler Jones or Jamie Collins would defy that system, particularly as both were having issues with their assignments and essentially underperforming for the NEP. BB does not have a lot of tolerance for guys who consistently defy their coaching and game responsibilities.. then Jones calling the police because he was hallucinating...

Jones looks all world, Collins less so..

Then there is Malcolm, who was offered a comparable contract by the NEP, but his agent told him he was worth more.. so he waited and moved on to have a substandard (horrendous) start in Tennessee...
As you mentioned, Butler was offered a big contract from the Pats. Which got me thinking (more of an aside) about how I find it funny when people say BB moved on from players like Butler at the right time. He didn't move on from Butler, Revis, Solder at the right time, he offered them big contracts and they left anyway. (Although I like to believe that the Revis offer was just to force the Jets to pay more).
 

1960Pats

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As you mentioned, Butler was offered a big contract from the Pats. Which got me thinking (more of an aside) about how I find it funny when people say BB moved on from players like Butler at the right time. He didn't move on from Butler, Revis, Solder at the right time, he offered them big contracts and they left anyway. (Although I like to believe that the Revis offer was just to force the Jets to pay more).

Each of the players you mentioned did receive more money than they were offered here, so in that sense the players and agents were correct in their assessments of each player's worth. The same can be said about Amendola too.

On the flip side there have been players who thought they could get paid more elsewhere and found out otherwise. Welker and Hightower come to mind right away.

Whatever the Pats are doing it sure seems to be working, though some might say that having a QB like Brady helps to overcome a lot of mistakes.
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Higher hits make no difference to me. All but the minimum portion of his 2018 salary can be moved to bonus and spread over the life of his contract. As long as the amount of new money doesn't change, nothing changes in terms of future decisions, except with regard to posters, who often think more of cap hits than new money.

Devin's remaining 2018 salary is roughly 11/16ths of $7.5M (=~ $5.15M). He has only one year left on his contract after this season ... at a cap hit of $13.435M.

If the Pats converted $4.5M of Devin's remaining salary into signing bonus, the new bonus amount would be split between 2018 and 2019. The net cap hit savings would be roughly $1.9M for 2018, with Devin's cap hit for 2019 increasing to about $15.7M.

There may be other types of bonuses with which all of the $4.5M could be shifted into 2019 (thus increasing 2018 cap savings to about $4.15M). If so, Devin's 2019 cap hit would increase to just short of $18M. Since that $4.5M in 2018 salary is already guaranteed money, it would still need to be guaranteed as a bonus (AFAIK), unless Devin agreed to a different arrangement (but, why would he?).

If Devin was then released/traded after June 1st next year, but before the start of the 2019 regular season, the Pats would be saving only about $9.5M against the cap, while creating about $8.5M in dead money.

Purely from a cap-finance perspective, extending Devin through 2020 could reduce both his remaining 2018 cap hit by a bit more, and reduce his 2019 cap hit. Of course, given his age, that's problematic.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
He already has a 13.5m dollar cap hit for next year, which is 3rd highest on the team. It may be hard to justify keeping him as it is.
The decision isn’t based on cap number but on new money.
If, for example, next years salary is 8 mill, it’s the same decision whether the cap hit is 10,13, or 16, because the rest hits the cap regardless.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
Devin's remaining 2018 salary is roughly 11/16ths of $7.5M (=~ $5.15M). He has only one year left on his contract after this season ... at a cap hit of $13.435M.

If the Pats converted $4.5M of Devin's remaining salary into signing bonus, the new bonus amount would be split between 2018 and 2019. The net cap hit savings would be roughly $1.9M for 2018, with Devin's cap hit for 2019 increasing to about $15.7M.

There may be other types of bonuses with which all of the $4.5M could be shifted into 2019 (thus increasing 2018 cap savings to about $4.15M). If so, Devin's 2019 cap hit would increase to just short of $18M. Since that $4.5M in 2018 salary is already guaranteed money, it would still need to be guaranteed as a bonus (AFAIK), unless Devin agreed to a different arrangement (but, why would he?).

If Devin was then released/traded after June 1st next year, but before the start of the 2019 regular season, the Pats would be saving only about $9.5M against the cap, while creating about $8.5M in dead money.

Purely from a cap-finance perspective, extending Devin through 2020 could reduce both his remaining 2018 cap hit by a bit more, and reduce his 2019 cap hit. Of course, given his age, that's problematic.
You can’t decrease the hit both this year and next unless you are talking about cutting him, but that’s still a bigger hit in 19 compared to not concerting this years salary to bonus and cutting him. In other words if you convert this years salary to bonus the non salary portion on the cap in 19 increases so the cost of McCourty on the roster or mccourty cut is higher than it would be now.
 
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