2020 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Chargers
Pick Results: NE: 90.9% at LAC: 9.1%

Sun
Dec 6th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:
Status
Not open for further replies.

edkk323

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Revis came with a 16m dollar a year AAV on a 2/32 deal, so I think he was more like buying shares of Amazon. ;) We pretty much knew that we were getting a blue chip player with that acquisition, and weren’t afraid to pay handsomely for it.

It was the last best year out of a HOF corner. I was comparing it to the massive contract he signed after it. He also helped us win a SB.

However, I should probably use Talib as a example from a value stand point.
 

PittPatriot

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Assuming Jimmy Garoppolo can be traded for multiple picks is like saying "If I can win a Power Ball, my problems will all go away". Our 2017 1st was traded for one year production from a elite WR and a 1st round OL man who was IRed. Our draft classes were not bad. They just got injured a lot. Garcia, Rivers and Wynn never saw the field.

Sorry to disagree, but I don’t think getting higher order draft picks for Jimmy was like winning the lottery. Had the timing been different, that could have been achieved.
First round talent typically lasts greater than five years (I don’t have data on hand to I don’t have data on hand to show you).
Can we say our draft classes were not bad?
I think they were “not good.”

Having said all of that- the team has been competitive and should have been able to win a Super Bowl last year. They seem to be shaping up so far this year.
 

edkk323

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Sorry to disagree, but I don’t think getting higher order draft picks for Jimmy was like winning the lottery. Had the timing been different, that could have been achieved.
1. What I meant was "stopping hoping for outlandish things to happen to solve your day to day problem"
2.You should stop with your coulda woulda shoulda. We DID not get multiple picks for JG. If JG played like he did last yr for the 49ers as a Patriot, we would get multiple picks. It NEVER HAPPENED.

First round talent typically lasts greater than five years (I don’t have data on hand to I don’t have data on hand to show you).

I wonder why.

Can we say our draft classes were not bad?
I think they were “not good.”

Go check out our draft classes in the last four years and come back. "They are not bad at all given the circumstance." is a very accurate statement.
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
PatsFans.com Supporter
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
The Patriots have an economic system in place and keeping Chandler Jones or Jamie Collins would defy that system, particularly as both were having issues with their assignments and essentially underperforming for the NEP. BB does not have a lot of tolerance for guys who consistently defy their coaching and game responsibilities.. then Jones calling the police because he was hallucinating...

Jones looks all world, Collins less so..

Then there is Malcolm, who was offered a comparable contract by the NEP, but his agent told him he was worth more.. so he waited and moved on to have a substandard (horrendous) start in Tennessee...

What? Chandler Jones wasn't having any (reported) issues with his assignments that I'm aware of. Perhaps you can be more specific? Collins, on the other hand, was reportedly doing quite a bit of freelancing.

Jones is "better" in Arizona because they have taken a lot off of his plate vs. what he was asked to do here. There, he has more freedom to simply pin his ears back and go after the QB more often.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
Actually, it shows just the opposite. Say Jimmy Garoppolo had been traded for multiple picks including a 1st rounder in the 2017 offseason as he should and could have been, the 2014 Patriots would be safely tucked under the 2018 cap at $171.5 million. You throw in 4 solid draft classes (the Garappolo picks make up for the stolen 2016 1st) still on rookie contracts, and you would have a better team than the current one and be in no worse cap condition than they are now.

This exercise which I thank the OP for doing shows how unnecessary the annual roster churn the Patriots do is and renders a lie all the misinformed chatter of how the Patriots could not have kept C. Jones and J. Collins because of the cap.

Of course, Chandler Jones would still be dropped in coverage a third of the time and Jamie Collins would still be used covering backs and TEs man to man rather than rushing from the other end because Patriot defensive coaches prefer to have versatile players who can half-a—d do many things rather than less versatile players who can excel at something.
Yup it shows the patriots could have kept a roster of36 players. Most teams like to have 53.
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
It is very difficult to calculate a comparable ROI value for free agents.
1. our acquisition cost is lower. Free agents sign discounted contracts with NEP.
2. It is hard to sign value on the production. We paid around 1.5 million for one year out of Cooks'good year and the Ram is pay 8m this year and 50m over the next three.
3.NEP probably view long term contract more as liability than asset.

Penny stock is not a accurate analogy. It is more like:
1."Want to piss off your ex? get in bed with me at a discounted cost"
2."You enjoying getting in bed me? Take a deep discount."
3."You are so hot. OK. I will play fair"
4. "Prove you are desirable to others by sleeping with me at a discounted cost"
5. "I got the best out of you, cya"
6."Oh, the Bills just done prepping a girl I need. Nice"


IDK. I think "penny stock" is a fairly decent analogy. A good chunk of my business background is in independent retail-variety. We'd continually make investments in small quantities of novel, new, unheralded products. It was sometimes truly off-the-wall sh it that we thought had enough of a "hook"/appeal that we might be able to move some and make a buck or two. We weren't just buying new things randomly. It had to be something that we thought we could sell.

So, on average nine out of 10 of those new items would end up getting dumped. Thus, the "batting average" sucked. However, the dollar ROI on that 10th item (that actually turned into a "hit" with customers) would way more than make up for the money lost on the other nine. IOW, that investment "category" made a profit overall.

That's why I think approaching this in terms of investment "categories" makes more sense than looking at each acquisition in isolation or measuring success rate by count. Also, using the market values of the players elsewhere is a relatively impartial measure.

So, the Pats spent $1.5M (or whatever) on Cooks for one year, and the Market valued him at $16M per year afterward. But you still have to add to Cooks what the Pats spent against the cap on other "new" players in 2017 (free agent or trade) who are now no longer with the team and what their post-Patriots market values were (Harrison = zero, Harris = zero) in order to evaluate the hypothetical ROI for the category.
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
What? Chandler Jones wasn't having any (reported) issues with his assignments that I'm aware of. Perhaps you can be more specific? Collins, on the other hand, was reportedly doing quite a bit of freelancing.

Jones is "better" in Arizona because they have taken a lot off of his plate vs. what he was asked to do here. There, he has more freedom to simply pin his ears back and go after the QB more often.

It seems to me that the "assignment" thing relates more to the general requirement to protect the edge. Jones often seemed to blow his run-reads - aggressively diving inside the LT, and then getting trapped there.
 

Fatmancryin

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
1. What I meant was "stopping hoping for outlandish things to happen to solve your day to day problem"
2.You should stop with your coulda woulda shoulda. We DID not get multiple picks for JG. If JG played like he did last yr for the 49ers as a Patriot, we would get multiple picks. It NEVER HAPPENED.



I wonder why.



Go check out our draft classes in the last four years and come back. "They are not bad at all given the circumstance." is a very accurate statement.

I do think that JGs injury cost the Patriots some picks and some leverage. There just wasn’t enough sample size to demand anything more then what they got.
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
PatsFans.com Supporter
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
It seems to me that the "assignment" thing relates more to the general requirement to protect the edge. Jones often seemed to blow his run-reads - aggressively diving inside the LT, and then getting trapped there.

Do you have specific examples? I always recalled Jones being very good against the run.
 

edkk323

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
IDK. I think "penny stock" is a fairly decent analogy. A good chunk of my business background is in independent retail-variety. We'd continually make investments in small quantities of novel, new, unheralded products. It was sometimes truly off-the-wall sh it that we thought had enough of a "hook"/appeal that we might be able to move some and make a buck or two. We weren't just buying new things randomly. It had to be something that we thought we could sell.
1.20-80 rule applies everywhere.

2.I get your point. The Pats definitely calculated the past\current\future going rate of NO.1 corner + the fit + the team situation and decided to sign Gilmore. It was surprising but great great signing looking back.

3.The hypothetical ROI is too hard to calculate without all the data and the analytical tools the professional org have at their disposal.

4."You are so hot. OK. I will play fair" You calculate ROI on this category. Paying fair market rate for good players won't get you anywhere in NFL since everyone can do that and NFL is a zero-sum game. You need a absolute edge. The Pats made a strategy out of capitalizing on the fuk-ups from other teams and players. We do that every year. That is probably ONE of the main reasons why we are competitive year in and year out.
 

Brick27

In the Starting Line-Up
Actually, it shows just the opposite. Say Jimmy Garoppolo had been traded for multiple picks including a 1st rounder in the 2017 offseason as he should and could have been, the 2014 Patriots would be safely tucked under the 2018 cap at $171.5 million. You throw in 4 solid draft classes (the Garappolo picks make up for the stolen 2016 1st) still on rookie contracts, and you would have a better team than the current one and be in no worse cap condition than they are now.

This exercise which I thank the OP for doing shows how unnecessary the annual roster churn the Patriots do is and renders a lie all the misinformed chatter of how the Patriots could not have kept C. Jones and J. Collins because of the cap.

Of course, Chandler Jones would still be dropped in coverage a third of the time and Jamie Collins would still be used covering backs and TEs man to man rather than rushing from the other end because Patriot defensive coaches prefer to have versatile players who can half-a—d do many things rather than less versatile players who can excel at something.
So that leaves 5,553,894 million for 16 remaining spots to hit the 53 man mark. That’s an average of a little over 347K each. Considering the NFL minimum is 480K this year, that’d make life a little tough when trying to fill out the rest of the roster. Also there’s those pesky things called injuries that throw everything off.
 

slam

In the Starting Line-Up
Some notes:
In the world in which we do nothing but retain players, trade Jimmy G, and just draft, subtracting Jimmy's cap hit gets us to $7 under the cap and 9 players short of 45. Adding four draft classes gets you over the cap again. Someone has to go.

The only O-line under contract are Solder, Cannon, Devey and Kline, who are around $20.6 million combined. The current entire O-line including backups are around $17.7 million.

The D-line consists of Chandler Jones. Sealver Siliga, Easley, and Chris Jones, who are around $17.5 million combined ($15.5 million of which are Chandler Jones). The current D-line including backups is $17.1 million (11 players)

Malcolm Butler's cap # is $6 million for 2018, goes to $13+ million for 2019 and 2020.

The LBs consist of Hightower, Collins, and Deontae Skinner, who are around 21 million. Current LB's are $14 million for five players.

Assuming draft capital is used to draft OL, DL, and LBs, we still need to shore up the offensive skill positions. The RBs are Blount and two pass catching backs. The #2 TE is Hooman.

Please remember in this world Belichick is not a significantly better drafter than he currently is.
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
1.20-80 rule applies everywhere.

True. Most "civilians" can't see the forest for the trees, though.

2.I get your point. The Pats definitely calculated the past\current\future going rate of NO.1 corner + the fit + the team situation and decided to sign Gilmore. It was surprising but great great signing looking back.

All fan "analysis" of player acquisition is hindsight, but it's rarely considered in terms of category ROI, much less predictive analytics.

3.The hypothetical ROI is too hard to calculate without all the data and the analytical tools the professional org have at their disposal.

Meh. You can still derive a rough (hindsight) ROI estimate for "categories" that's sufficient to demonstrate the general concept. That's all I'm suggesting.

4."You are so hot. OK. I will play fair" You calculate ROI on this category. Paying fair market rate for good players won't get you anywhere in NFL since everyone can do that and NFL is a zero-sum game. You need a absolute edge. The Pats made a strategy out of capitalizing on the fuk-ups from other teams and players. We do that every year. That is probably ONE of the main reasons why we are competitive year in and year out.

In terms of calculating ROI results, I wouldn't limit the data set to just the obvious F-ups of other teams (like maybe Gordon). For 2017, I'd include the cap cost of acquisitions like Marquis Flowers, Eric Lee, Bademosi, James Harrison, David Harris, RJF, Ealy, etc.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
So that leaves 5,553,894 million for 16 remaining spots to hit the 53 man mark. That’s an average of a little over 347K each. Considering the NFL minimum is 480K this year, that’d make life a little tough when trying to fill out the rest of the roster. Also there’s those pesky things called injuries that throw everything off.
Plus 6 mill is the required cushion fit practice squad and in season acquisitions and also is counting zero dead money.
 

DarrylS

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Sorry to disagree, but I don’t think getting higher order draft picks for Jimmy was like winning the lottery. Had the timing been different, that could have been achieved.
First round talent typically lasts greater than five years (I don’t have data on hand to I don’t have data on hand to show you).
Can we say our draft classes were not bad?
I think they were “not good.”

Having said all of that- the team has been competitive and should have been able to win a Super Bowl last year. They seem to be shaping up so far this year.

If you peruse most of the draft classes of teams picking in the late rounds, you will find that most teams have issues with draft classes that were "not good".. with that line of thought the Cleveland Browns by now would be a juggernaut, instead... the other day the NYG waived Ereck Flowers, a first round pick who never panned out..
 
Last edited:

DarrylS

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
What? Chandler Jones wasn't having any (reported) issues with his assignments that I'm aware of. Perhaps you can be more specific? Collins, on the other hand, was reportedly doing quite a bit of freelancing.

Jones is "better" in Arizona because they have taken a lot off of his plate vs. what he was asked to do here. There, he has more freedom to simply pin his ears back and go after the QB more often.

When he was with the NEP Jones was termed "inconsistent". Sometimes he looked dominant other times he disappeared.. he would not be worth the type of money to the NEP he would demand based on these inconsistencies.. to Arizona he was.

In 2012 he was 25th among edge pass rushers
In 2013 he was 70th....
In 2014 he was 29th...
In 2015 he was 40th...
 

PittPatriot

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
If you peruse most of the draft classes of teams picking in the late rounds, you will find that most teams have issues with draft classes that were "not good".. with that line of thought the Cleveland Browns by now would be a juggernaut, instead... the other day the NYG waived Ereck Flowers, a first round pick who never panned out..

I agree- we pick late and don’t get 1st round talent so it’s hard to build that young talent pool.
We haven’t done well with our 2nd round picks.
@edkk323 said our drafts have been “not bad”...I feel they are somewhere between mediocre to “not good.”
 

luuked

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
When he was with the NEP Jones was termed "inconsistent". Sometimes he looked dominant other times he disappeared.. he would not be worth the type of money to the NEP he would demand based on these inconsistencies.. to Arizona he was.

In 2012 he was 25th among edge pass rushers
In 2013 he was 70th....
In 2014 he was 29th...
In 2015 he was 40th...

But how much of this inconsistency was assignment based ? There were games where he had more freedom to rush the passer and then there were games where he his biggest priority was edge setting/containing.
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
PatsFans.com Supporter
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
When he was with the NEP Jones was termed "inconsistent". Sometimes he looked dominant other times he disappeared.. he would not be worth the type of money to the NEP he would demand based on these inconsistencies.. to Arizona he was.

In 2012 he was 25th among edge pass rushers
In 2013 he was 70th....
In 2014 he was 29th...
In 2015 he was 40th...

Yeah but that doesn't tell me how he was "missing assignments." That just tells me that he broke down over the course of the year. Do you have specific examples of where he "missed assignments?"
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top