Rex Burkhead [UPDATE: ACL not believed to be torn!]

[long distance]

I am not saying there has been anything alarming, but I noticed that White was a dual threat running and receiving and both seem to have diminished. I would like to know if what I am saying is borne out. I could be wrong. Perhaps someone can find his third down stats and see what has been happening. I understand he is used less on first and second downs, but I think he takes nearly all the 3rd downs but converts fewer. It is a hypothesis.

Apart from Burkhead surge, PP after bye (and Cannon out) is another thing to take into account (as mainman mentioned already) .

White seems to be most reliable pass protector from the backfield for BB and McD. That affects his 3rd down play (“production“) since Tom is using him for protection more after Cannon went down. He did see more targets @BUF and one of the reasons could be connected to PP as well since they were 31st in pass rushing (plus losing Lawson during the game).

One thing no one dares to look at is TBs accuracy. Some throws to White were inaccurate recently (for TB standards) not hitting him in stride (part of White's YAC drop off) or overthrowing him opened over coverage. White is still reliable target
(19-13 after bye) with only one drop on him that I can remember.

One thing to keep in mind while dissecting Pats play last games is that after the bye they went on a long long road trip with only one game out of six played at home including MNF . suffering additional significant injuries . so this team including Tom is drained. Tom's accuracy over the last two games is below 60% f.e. (compared to over 75% in first two games of this stretch) ...

 

[maineman209]

Over the first 6 games of the season, White averaged 48% of offensive snaps. Since then, he's averaged 32% of snaps.

He exceeded that 32% in weeks 13 (40%), 14 (57%) & 15 (33%), meaning that he averaged about 23% for the other three weeks of the period.

 

[maineman209]

... the harsh reality that Gill is unlikely to reproduce the running production that Lewis is currently providing.

We don't know yet what the "reality" is with Gillislee now. We don't know how much Gillislee may (or may not) have evolved/developed within the Pats system during practices during his period of game-day inactivity. Furthermore, the value of a lot of variables has changed, not the least of which is Lewis having now established himself as a consistently significant running threat (while, notably, rarely accessing his previously-established receiving abilities).

We may see something completely unexpected (if only at points) come Sunday afternoon.

 

[maineman209]

Apart from Burkhead surge, PP after bye (and Cannon out) is another thing to take into account (as mainman mentioned already) .

White seems to be most reliable pass protector from the backfield for BB and McD. That affects his 3rd down play (“production“) since Tom is using him for protection more after Cannon went down. He did see more targets @BUF and one of the reasons could be connected to PP as well since they were 31st in pass rushing (plus losing Lawson during the game).

One thing no one dares to look at is TBs accuracy. Some throws to White were inaccurate recently (for TB standards) not hitting him in stride (part of White's YAC drop off) or overthrowing him opened over coverage. White is still reliable target
(19-13 after bye) with only one drop on him that I can remember.

One thing to keep in mind while dissecting Pats play last games is that after the bye they went on a long long road trip with only one game out of six played at home including MNF . suffering additional significant injuries . so this team including Tom is drained. Tom's accuracy over the last two games is below 60% f.e. (compared to over 75% in first two games of this stretch) ...

White's receiving YAC% is down from last year to this year (93% to 82%). However, I don't know if there's been a decline within this season. His YPC is also down, season-to-season - from 9.2 to 7.7, an even larger drop. This may indicate that he's been used in a different way over the past six games.

White's ability to gain yards after contact has never been at Lewis' level, so his decline in YAC and his decline in rushing YPA may be related to how he's been used, perhaps being put in situations where he's not getting the level of blocking he may have previously received - for instance, on "naked" dump-offs to the flat.

 

[ivanvamp]

Dion has been very good lately IMO and deserves the lead back role for now. I'm fine with Gillislie getting some reps but right now the job is Lewis' to lose until Burkhead returns.

I hear you. But watch Gillislee have 80+ yards and a touchdown on the ground this week.

 

[AtomicDawg]

Update after MRI. Great news. He has become a focal point of the offense. I love Neon Dion but T-Rex has been key.

 

[Uptown]

Yes!!! Here’s to a swift recovery for Da Burkmeister! Heal up & get back soon champ.

 

[Mack Herron]

Interesting to see how Gillislee will be used the next couple of games. We lose a versatile player with Burkhead so more snaps for White make sense. As defenses have success with man coverage on our WRs, weather gets worse, running game could get more emphasis.

 

[PatsFan2]

Gilly should be very fresh and ready to go...I thought he was a better player than what he's shown. But sometimes having some time to ponder over things can do wonders. RB's was our deepest position going in and still is.

 

[mosi]

Man, if he does well, we should all yell "Gilly Dilly!"

 

[Deus Irae]

I hadn't considered White being given significantly more hand offs or more precisely didn't think they wouldn't go that route.

I think the Patriots are around 27 +/- rushes a game and Lewis has been kept pretty consistently at a max of 15 with 1 to 2 pass targets. Assuming they keep to his touches limit and he is targeted in the passing game more by a factor of 3 or 4, I'd expect his rushes to settle back to around 12. For White is getting around 3 rushes a game. So assuming White is increased toward the 10 rush mark then Gill will see around +/- 5 rushes.

Obviously that's a lot of generalization, the game situations (for example Miami) will dictate rushes to passing ratio, and with a comfortable later game lead we may see Gill take over the workload. But it will be interesting to see how this plays out with the three, how the roles alter in Burk's absence, will White be productive in the increased handoffs (if he doesn't it puts worrisome load on Lewis) and if that 5 rushes estimate holds true for Gill.
Certainly would love to see Gill come out and be very productive in whatever rushes he gets. Even better, get him on film catching a few passes. More backs who can gain solid yards on the ground and can catch passes the better.

Before being put on the shelf, Gillislee's rushing attempts were

15,18,12,12,12,10,8,11

but he was only getting 3.6 ypc. So, he'll probably get some carries, but you've got to think that they'll need to see a better average, or get a big enough lead that killing the clock becomes the priority, in order for him to get real carry numbers. If they can get him up to 4 ypc, they can use him with that 10+ carry sort of load. If he keeps down at 3.6, he's too much of a liablity to lean on when the game's still in doubt.

As for White, if he's running more than just the occasional time, that's a problem.

 

[Ring 6]

Before being put on the shelf, Gillislee's rushing attempts were

15,18,12,12,12,10,8,11

but he was only getting 3.6 ypc. So, he'll probably get some carries, but you've got to think that they'll need to see a better average, or get a big enough lead that killing the clock becomes the priority, in order for him to get real carry numbers. If they can get him up to 4 ypc, they can use him with that 10+ carry sort of load. If he keeps down at 3.6, he's too much of a liablity to lean on when the game's still in doubt.

As for White, if he's running more than just the occasional time, that's a problem.

It’s hard to guess because whatever group of RBs we have produced a different usage pattern.
Faulk was the 3rd down back.
Then woodhead became a 3rd down back who played more snaps than the regular rb.
Then between became more like Faulk
Then Lewis became an every down back.
Then White became a 3rd down back.
It’s really like there are 5-8 different rb roles and they are shared based on personnel.

I’ll try to label these in a way that makes sense.

A) Base RB plays on first down in a base offense rarely catches the ball(maroney, blount, bjge, Ridley, Lewis 2017)
B) Backup base RB most season we have a guy who takes some of the snaps for the base rb usually a drive a half or so (Taylor, Morris, blount when Ridley was here, burkhead)
C)Short yardage RB self explanatory
D)Passing game RB. This is when we want to go no huddle, exploit matchups and have a receiving rb who also runs it ok on the field
E)Backup passing game RB (verren, burkhead)
F)Third down rb (vereen, white, Faulk)
So these spots overlap
This year has been
A) gillislee then Lewis
B) Lewis then burkhead
C) gillislee then burkhead
D) white and burkhead
E) no one because d kind of is split up
F) white

Going forward with burkhead out I think you will see
A. Lewis
B gillislee
C gillislee
D white and Lewis splitting
E white and Lewis splitting
F white

 

[RobertWeathers]

Rushes < or = 10 yards

DLew-19 or 1:6.8 carries
Burk- 5 or 1 every 12.8 carries
Gillislee -4 or 1 every 24.5 carries.

In 2016 he was right there with DLew with a 10 + yd gain every 7.8 carries

 

[n6249c]

Oops, I know. I meant to say not enough playing time but then I realized he had 20 snaps for 2 catches and 8 yards. It’s frustrating seeing Gronk doing all the work and other guys not breaking coverage. That’s a recipe for disaster if another team decides to double or triple Gronk and our other receivers don’t get open.

If another team decides to double or triple Gronk it should greatly improve the likelihood that the other receivers will get open.