Realistic trade packages to move up and take a QB in the draft

[WeezyFbaby]

If you did trade Gilmore as part of a package (#15 & 46) it would free up another 15 million in cap space... which I was reluctant to do, but more cap space will open up other options..

He has a 7 mil dead cap if traded pats would save around 6.5 in cap if they move him

 

[BelichickFan]

I know this is irrelevant, but looking back at comps is funny:

"K.C. traded the No. 27 overall pick, a third-round pick and their 2018 first-round selection to the Buffalo Bills to move up to No. 10 to select Mahomes"

Forget what Mahomes has become, a #3 and a future #1 to go from 27 to 10? Based on that, #15, our #2 and 2022 #1 should get us to about #5. I know that wouldn't happen but that Mahomes trade is really light.

 

[holyredeemer]

This years draft is going to be interesting. On the one hand, we know there are a lot of QB needy teams in the league. Any guy we may want could very well be gone in the first ten picks. A lot of teams had to sit out FA due to salary cap restraints, this may lead to a more aggressive draft driving up the cost of potential trades. On the other hand, you have all the teams that have sat out FA. They could very well decide they need a large youth movement and put more value on accumulating picks over the next two seasons.

I for one could care less what they do, as long as they get the guys they really want. Trading up would be exciting but if not needed, I wouldn’t mind adding a bunch of young guys as well.

In addition to adding a QB, we could also use another RB, WR, LB, IOL, NT, CB. I have faith BB can fill quite a few of those with mid-late rd picks. Bring in some quality UDFA for competition. On my wish list is a RB that can stay healthy, a space eater at the Nose (not many of those out there) and a young rangy LB. Depending on what happens with Gilmore & Jackson, we might have to spend a premium pick on a CB (preferably not a 2nd rounder) and double dip at the position.

 

[jdlboot14]

Sadly I have to agree, BB has spent handsomely at many other needed positions. I doubt there's enough left for a FA deal with even Jimmy G.
I think they're letting that go. I think, to my despair, Cam will be the default QB this season, but they'll grab one in the top 2 rounds.
Or, if they can't get the top 4 QBs, I could see them trading down to bottom of the 1st to get Mac. But he won't play for 2 years here, unless... well, you know, Cam gets his lungs popped while running out of bounds.

 

[mgteich]

If we want anyone but Jones, I would think that negotiations start with 2 firsts and this year's second.

Belichick is well prepared for such a trade. He is doing almost everything need in free agency. Yes, he will have the picks for the needed 2-3 OL's. But nothing else is critical.

 

[ToonPatriot]

The path to a veteran (JG, Mariota, Minshew, Darnold) has improved with some QB needy teams (Chicago, Washington) seemingly making their choice.

After accounting for teams that are likely to draft a QB, only Denver really stands out to possibly add one. Others like SF would open up JG, Carolina would open up Bridgewater, etc.

I have no problem trading 1,2 this year and next to get a stud rookie or moving up a little for Mac but the veteran market seems to be more of a buyers market now than it was.

I still see Darnold to SF for 2,4 and JG to NE for 3 makes the most sense. Darnold's other spots have mostly closed (Denver could be the other) and I could see SF liking the move to Darnold (younger, cheaper) for a 2 while moving from 4 to 3. Of course we don't have the cap space now but that can be fixed.

Similar, Alex Smith to old coach Urban Meyer as Jax backup and flipping Minshew works too.

Now, if we can trade picks and end up with Lance or Fields, that's great too. And we have the pieces on offense where the Mac Attack could probably do well.

Lots of interesting options.

What CHI and WAS have done is no different to what we've done. The likelihood of them adding a second vet is as likely as us. We either roll with Cam or add a rookie to sit behind for the majority of 2021.

There still appears to be a clamour for JG that i'll never understand on this forum but can anyone seriously see both Cam and JG here at the same time? I can't. Plus as already mentioned, we already have 1 QB in his 30s with a suspect injury history, we don't need another.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Can we just trade for Alex Guerrero and get him to do his voodoo on Cam’s arm?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I'm not a draft guru, but the more and more I see of this Mac Jones kid the more I like him. Knock on him is that he played on a star studded Alabama team. I can see the pats trading up a few slots to get him.

 

[mgteich]

OK, the first 4 picks are very likely to be 3 QB and an OT. It is not clear which QB's will be drafted, but 3 is likely. Then it is all wide open. If a team want to make sure he gets their choice of franchise QB, it may need to move to 5. And no matter who does it for who, folks will say that they could have waited and should have paid that extra pick or two. But, in the end, drafting franchise quarterbacks are a different situation than drafting for other positions. The success rate is lower, and the payoffs if right are very high.

 

[ivanvamp]

Top QBs available...
- Lawrence, Clemson
- Fields, Ohio State
- Wilson, BYU
- Lance, NDSU
- - - - -
- Trask, Florida
- Jones, Alabama
- Newman, Georgia

I separated them because I think that those four are clearly the top four in the rankings.


First 15 picks in the draft...

1. Jax - Lawrence
2. NYJ - either keep Darnold and draft for other needs, trade it, or trade Darnold and draft a QB
3. Mia - same thing as NYJ, but substitute Tua for Darnold
4. Atl - just extended Ryan, so doesn't seem like a good fit to draft a QB
5. Cin - doesn't need a QB with Burrow
6. Phi - iffy....they might ride with Hurts but could draft a QB
7. Det - traded for Goff so won't draft a QB
8. Car - definitely could draft a QB
9. Den - definitely could draft a QB
10. Dal - just re-signed Prescott
11. NYG - won't likely draft a QB in this spot because of Jones...but could if they LOVE a guy who's still on the board
12. SF - might draft a QB but likely will stick with JG
13. LAC - won't draft one as they have a young stud
14. Min - won't draft one with Cousins
15. NE - big need

Cbssports mock draft has these teams picking a QB before NE:

1. Jax - Lawrence
2. NYJ - trading Darnold and drafting Wilson
4. Atl - Lance...but that wouldn't make sense with Ryan's extension
7. SF - Fields (after projecting SF making a trade to move up)

So that would allow NE to draft Mac Jones at 15. Actually, cbssports doesn't have Jones going til #28. Maybe the Pats could draft Surtain (their choice) at 15 and then use tons of capital to move back into the first round and pick Jones later in the round.

BUT...if they wanted Lance, they quite likely need to move up to the top 7 or 8. So that may mean a deal with Detroit. Now what might Detroit want?

NE trades: #15 (first), #46 (second), #140 (fourth), 2022 second, plus a starting-caliber secondary player
NE gets: #7, and drafts Trey Lance

Possible?

 

[luuked]

The other important question is realistically, how many rookies can make this roster? We have already filled a ton of holes and we still have around $20mil in cap space and Belichick hasn’t even gone bargain shopping yet. I think as long as the draft falls right there is a high likelihood we trade up. I think it could look like 2007 where we make a 1st round pick and don’t pick again until the 4th round.

I think that is an underappreciated key point. For many rookies the path to reps and playtime will be blocked for at least 2 years unless they totally break out and outplay the just acquired veterans (which is a low odds scenario).

I think a lot of people think that potential always wins out and if a rookie destined to be a "good" NFL player they will just flash enough to get their chance. I totally disagree with this. I think we have lost a lot potentially even great players because they landed on a team that didn't know how to use them optimally, or they got stuck behind solid players on the depth chart never gaining enough experience and reps to make that jump -- i.e. the famous "you are one injury away from a better team" -- or simply never got a real shot because of the limited nature of workouts during camp and in the offseason.

Being in the right place at the right time is as important as your "potential" as a player.

 

[Uptown]

I know this is irrelevant, but looking back at comps is funny:

"K.C. traded the No. 27 overall pick, a third-round pick and their 2018 first-round selection to the Buffalo Bills to move up to No. 10 to select Mahomes"

Forget what Mahomes has become, a #3 and a future #1 to go from 27 to 10? Based on that, #15, our #2 and 2022 #1 should get us to about #5. I know that wouldn't happen but that Mahomes trade is really light.

I stated a few weeks ago; that Mahomes draft day trade may go down as the greatest draft day trade of all time. Hell, maybe thee greatest trade of all time.

 

[mgteich]

Top QBs available...
- Lawrence, Clemson
- Fields, Ohio State
- Wilson, BYU
- Lance, NDSU
- - - - -
- Trask, Florida
- Jones, Alabama
- Newman, Georgia

I separated them because I think that those four are clearly the top four in the rankings.


First 15 picks in the draft...

1. Jax - Lawrence
2. NYJ - either keep Darnold and draft for other needs, trade it, or trade Darnold and draft a QB
3. Mia - same thing as NYJ, but substitute Tua for Darnold
4. Atl - just extended Ryan, so doesn't seem like a good fit to draft a QB
5. Cin - doesn't need a QB with Burrow
6. Phi - iffy....they might ride with Hurts but could draft a QB
7. Det - traded for Goff so won't draft a QB
8. Car - definitely could draft a QB
9. Den - definitely could draft a QB
10. Dal - just re-signed Prescott
11. NYG - won't likely draft a QB in this spot because of Jones...but could if they LOVE a guy who's still on the board
12. SF - might draft a QB but likely will stick with JG
13. LAC - won't draft one as they have a young stud
14. Min - won't draft one with Cousins
15. NE - big need

Cbssports mock draft has these teams picking a QB before NE:

1. Jax - Lawrence
2. NYJ - trading Darnold and drafting Wilson
4. Atl - Lance...but that wouldn't make sense with Ryan's extension
7. SF - Fields (after projecting SF making a trade to move up)

So that would allow NE to draft Mac Jones at 15. Actually, cbssports doesn't have Jones going til #28. Maybe the Pats could draft Surtain (their choice) at 15 and then use tons of capital to move back into the first round and pick Jones later in the round.

BUT...if they wanted Lance, they quite likely need to move up to the top 7 or 8. So that may mean a deal with Detroit. Now what might Detroit want?

NE trades: #15 (first), #46 (second), #140 (fourth), 2022 second, plus a starting-caliber secondary player
NE gets: #7, and drafts Trey Lance

Possible?

Yes, it is possible that one of the top 4 can be had at 7. However, I doubt it. I expect folks to trade up. Draftek has us trading up to 4 to get Lance.

 

[Big Bucks]

I would trade up to 7 early in order to make it look better for the Jets, Miami or Atlanta to fall back too. If stuck with 7 we take Pitts, Chase or Waddle.

I would then take Jones by trading 2022 1st and 2nd rounder to move to around 15-18, priority for 2022 1st would be to move form 7th into top 4

 

[moosekill]

I think you only move up to get a qb.

 

[bellsfangb]

I could still see Jimmy G being the play here. Let SF move up from 12 to 4-8 and take Fields or Lance, and Pats grab a restructured Jimmy G for a later pick. BB can then trade down from 15 or go best PTP available.

Or just continuing to think this through, trade 15 into next year and target Ridder or one of the other QBs then.

 

[Nunchucks]

Vikings, Detroit, Atlanta, and giants could definitely all want to draft qbs

 

[patfanken]

Here's the thing. This is a very top heavy thin QB group. NO ONE is obvious except Lawrence. Wilson, Fields, and Lance are all one year wonders, and the reality on one year wonders is they take time to develop and as far as success goes, go directly to your dart board.

Still Lawrence and Wilson will likely go in the first 2 picks to the Jags and someone. Then you have Fields who is the literal definition of a one year wonder. A guy who will absolutely need to sit at least one year. Lots of physical skills, but will be a HUGE gamble. Same for Lance only his one year was a YEAR ago. Another physical marvel, but again will have to sit a full year.

THEN you have Jones. Still ANOTHER one year wonder, but without the athleticism. Lots of questions as to pocket presence and movement. Will he be able to stand up to NFL pressure when he rarely had to do it in college. Also 23 when he'll be drafted. Lance will be 20 in comparison.

So there is a LOT of very scary players out there that people are going to put up a LOT of draft capital taking what amounts to a shot in the dark. Hit on one and you're a hero. Miss and you set your program back 3 years.

The Pats have one pressing need beyond QB that they have to address, and that's at C. I like the Alabama kid since he blots out the sun at 6'6 or the kid from the D3 school, since I went to one too,. . I have no idea where they'll go.

RIght now I'm thinking is the only way I'm going to grab a Fields or Lance is if they slip down to around the 10 mark. THEN I'd make a move up to grab one it would be worth it. The 15, a 4th and a 2nd next year or the like. And if they don't fall, I'd look to move back and add a 2nd and 3rd to your low 1st rounder and grab your C, speed LB , and WR with your top 3 picks (in no particular order). THEN in the 3rd add Kellen Mond Then in day 3 add depth at G, and assorted camp fodder who will often turn out better than what you picked in the first 2 days

THAT would be a dream finish to this off season

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Outside of Lawrence (who is going #1 to JAX) none of these QBs are sure fire, in fact they all have more questions than answers.

Fields had to transfer from Georgia because he couldn't beat out Fromm (who is now a back up QB with the Bills), are you confident that an Ohio St. QB can cut it in the NFL? How many have to be drafted high and fail?

Wilson- at least he has started for a few years, although not against superior competition, I would take him before Fields, he may turn out to be OK, but he is far from a lock to be a good NFL QB.

Lance-has started 16 games at North Dakota State, against Div 2 opponents. Just not enough experience to draft him that high, and especially to trade away other picks to get him.

I would rather see the Pats get another playmaker at 15 and 46, and grab Davis Mills from Stanford in the 3rd round. He has all the measurables you want in a NFL QB, got caught up in a QB competition (that he won) so he doesn't have that many starts. in the end, I think he will be a better QB than anyone else not named Lawrence in this draft.

think of it this way, would you rather have Lance sitting behind Cam to start, and no draft picks in the top three rounds. Or Cam starting with say a Devonta Smith, Kyle Pitts (doubtful, but you never know) contributing right away, and a solid O or D line pick at 46 and Mills learning the ropes.

 

[yukon cornelius]

Outside of Lawrence (who is going #1 to JAX) none of these QBs are sure fire, in fact they all have more questions than answers.

Fields had to transfer from Georgia because he couldn't beat out Fromm (who is now a back up QB with the Bills), are you confident that an Ohio St. QB can cut it in the NFL? How many have to be drafted high and fail?

Wilson- at least he has started for a few years, although not against superior competition, I would take him before Fields, he may turn out to be OK, but he is far from a lock to be a good NFL QB.

Lance-has started 16 games at North Dakota State, against Div 2 opponents. Just not enough experience to draft him that high, and especially to trade away other picks to get him.

I would rather see the Pats get another playmaker at 15 and 46, and grab Davis Mills from Stanford in the 3rd round. He has all the measurables you want in a NFL QB, got caught up in a QB competition (that he won) so he doesn't have that many starts. in the end, I think he will be a better QB than anyone else not named Lawrence in this draft.

think of it this way, would you rather have Lance sitting behind Cam to start, and no draft picks in the top three rounds. Or Cam starting with say a Devonta Smith, Kyle Pitts (doubtful, but you never know) contributing right away, and a solid O or D line pick at 46 and Mills learning the ropes.

i really see something like this happening......depending on how 15 shakes out, i could even see them moving back into the 1st a little so they have more ammo to move back UP if they need to so they can grab whichever of those QB5-QB8 or so that they like

i am NOT sold on mac jones, at all........but i can see good risk/reward with mills for sure.......and maybe similar risk/reward with newman, mond, trask as well.......

to me unless something big happens, like a move up or one of those top 4 QB's falling, i see a lot of value in that next tier of QB's relative to where you could possibly get them.....

it's going to be interesting for sure........add in that it is bill, and bill does things differently sometimes......and it will be a fun month