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Realistic trade packages to move up and take a QB in the draft

2021 Patriots Season:
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Next Up: at Bills
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Mon
Dec 6th

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RIpats88

In the Starting Line-Up
So, I think a large consensus from the media and fans is that Bill's moves this offseason point to one strategy. FIlling alot of holes in free agency because you intend to expend alot of draft capital move up in the draft and have a guy on a rookie contract. Its how the seahawks/chiefs won their first superbowls. Stacked teams built around a QB on a rookie contract. So, bill must see someone he is enamored with. now, its always possible bill is going to try and move that draft capital for desaun watson. but thats more of a longshot.

So, what would it take for the pats to move up and take someone? on the radio they said this years #1 and #2 might move you to 7 which seems like a no-brainer if your guy is there. but you might have to get into the top 5 to grab a top QB.

just looking at a thread of realistically what it would take to move up.
 

DarrylS

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"On the radio" is hardly a great source of information where speculation and creating controversy adds listeners, is hardly a barometer of much of anything.

Think that BB is definitely leaning this way, he has significant draft capital which may allow him to move down a few picks in this draft.. he might have his eye on Trey Lance (probably not going to happen) but more likely towards a Mac Jones...

There is a reason why they have not made a huge investment in Cam Newton and QB is such a fluid position right now. There is a bigger plan here and BB & brain trust know what needs to be done.
 

Nunchucks

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I suspect they are more likely to trade next year's number one over this year's number 2. Too many needs to fill this year.
 

venecol

The FRG has a little ****
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So, what would it take for the pats to move up and take someone? on the radio they said this years #1 and #2 might move you to 7 which seems like a no-brainer if your guy is there. but you might have to get into the top 5 to grab a top QB.

just looking at a thread of realistically what it would take to move up.
To move up into the top 5, Bill will have to part ways with his first born, so there's a possibility.



1127192975.jpg.0.jpg

Breaking News: Belichick trades Little Steven to Cincinnati!!!
 

manxman2601

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club
In ‘18, the Bills moved up from 12 to 7 to get Josh Allen and gave up two second rounders (along with their 1st) to do so.

  • Bills get No. 7 (QB Allen)
  • Bucs get No. 12, 53, 56

One thing to bear in mind is that a 2022 1st rounder has the approx equivalence of a 2021 2nd rounder. So based upon the above trade, we could be looking at giving up 15, 46 and our 2022 1st.
 

manxman2601

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club
In ‘18, the Bills moved up from 12 to 7 to get Josh Allen and gave up two second rounders (along with their 1st) to do so.



One thing to bear in mind is that a 2022 1st rounder has the approx equivalence of a 2021 2nd rounder. So based upon the above trade, we could be looking at giving up 15, 46 and our 2022 1st.

This would be a much more preferable example from 2016’s draft though:

  • Titans get: No. 8 overall pick, 2016 sixth-rounder (No. 176 overall)
  • Browns get: No. 15 overall pick, 2016 third-rounder (No. 76 overall) and a 2017 second-rounder
 
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luuked

Hall of Fame Poster
I dont think BB is leaning any specific way but just keeps all options open.

In terms of package to move up.. I think whether you move up to the Bengals slot or Philly/Detroit the value chart will most likely be the starting point with it costing a premium this year.

Why ? Because the Panthers and Denver will look to do the same and for them it would require fewer assets. SF is also lurking at #12 and I can easily see them move up.

So lets not pretend like we have control over this. If there is a bidding war then there will come a point where the perceived value is not there anymore and BB will jump off and move on.

The only thing they can do is what they did in terms of money this year already. Put yourself into a position to jump on opportunities.

It wasn't a given Henry and Smith weren't gonna get franchised. But when the chance came up we jumped on it because we were in position to do that.

The same is even more so true with the draft. All you can do is be prepared to make a move but in the end its not entirely in your hands.
 
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yukon cornelius

In the Starting Line-Up
while i think there IS a path to move up, as stated the cost might be too high.........i would not be surprised to see anything happen, honestly......it just depends on who falls where and what the costs are.......they COULD move up to take QB4......they could stand pat and get best player, they could move down........if they don't land QB4, then i've got to think they have their eyes on someone in that next tier, and figuring out where they can take them will be the trick......

thing is with filling a majority of the defensive needs via FA, and really only needing perhaps a WR, a few OL, a RB - they have left a lot of flexibility

i wouldn't be surprised to see a trade DOWN from 15 and then a trade back UP at some point to take QB5-7
 

NashuaPats

In the Starting Line-Up
Lawrence and Wilson are largely predicted to go 1 and 2. Miami will likely stick with Tua rather than draft a rookie. Atlanta may take a QB, Fields or Lance at 4. Cincinnati has Burrow, so #5 may be the target trade. I’m guessing it will take our first, third, next year’s first, and maybe another pick. I think this may be the plan. Fields or Lance. Both are big strong guys with big arms who can run. Not unlike Cam. This offense will be built well for either player. Let them sit behind Cam for a year unless they beat him out. Trey Lance is the guy I’m more excited about.
 

upstater1

Pro Bowl Player
The problem with comparing this draft to past drafts is that most teams will have high grades for the top 4 QBs, and there are at least double that number of teams that need a QB, so there will be a premium price on trading into the top 7. I know Josh Allen was really well regarded but was he considered so far over and above Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen at the time? The Bills certainly thought so.
 

Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
Cam is the starting QB so moving up would be a waste of resources that could help the Pats this season.

Evidently, there is truth to the rumor that Cam hurt his shoulder last season which led to the passing woes. Cam can pass the ball. He torched the Pats both times when Carolina played NE. His 15 - 1 Super Bowl season was nothing shabby. 35 TDs and 10 INTs is more like it. Cam relied heavily on the TE that season which indicates to me that the Pats are trying to place Cam in a position to win after the debacle at the position last season.

 

BelichickFan

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The path to a veteran (JG, Mariota, Minshew, Darnold) has improved with some QB needy teams (Chicago, Washington) seemingly making their choice.

After accounting for teams that are likely to draft a QB, only Denver really stands out to possibly add one. Others like SF would open up JG, Carolina would open up Bridgewater, etc.

I have no problem trading 1,2 this year and next to get a stud rookie or moving up a little for Mac but the veteran market seems to be more of a buyers market now than it was.

I still see Darnold to SF for 2,4 and JG to NE for 3 makes the most sense. Darnold's other spots have mostly closed (Denver could be the other) and I could see SF liking the move to Darnold (younger, cheaper) for a 2 while moving from 4 to 3. Of course we don't have the cap space now but that can be fixed.

Similar, Alex Smith to old coach Urban Meyer as Jax backup and flipping Minshew works too.

Now, if we can trade picks and end up with Lance or Fields, that's great too. And we have the pieces on offense where the Mac Attack could probably do well.

Lots of interesting options.
 

Wozzy

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Gilmore is always a possible trade chip, his salary makes him reasonably easy to move. He's worth a 2nd at least.

After a year to reset it's apparent they are "going all in" and draft picks are bullets meant to be fired. They need a QB.
 

DarrylS

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Gilmore is always a possible trade chip, his salary makes him reasonably easy to move. He's worth a 2nd at least.

After a year to reset it's apparent they are "going all in" and draft picks are bullets meant to be fired. They need a QB.

If you did trade Gilmore as part of a package (#15 or 46) it would free up another 15 million in cap space... which I was initially reluctant to consider, but more cap space will open up other options..
 
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Mark Morse

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The path to a veteran (JG, Mariota, Minshew, Darnold) has improved with some QB needy teams (Chicago, Washington) seemingly making their choice.

After accounting for teams that are likely to draft a QB, only Denver really stands out to possibly add one. Others like SF would open up JG, Carolina would open up Bridgewater, etc.

I have no problem trading 1,2 this year and next to get a stud rookie or moving up a little for Mac but the veteran market seems to be more of a buyers market now than it was.

I still see Darnold to SF for 2,4 and JG to NE for 3 makes the most sense. Darnold's other spots have mostly closed (Denver could be the other) and I could see SF liking the move to Darnold (younger, cheaper) for a 2 while moving from 4 to 3. Of course we don't have the cap space now but that can be fixed.

Similar, Alex Smith to old coach Urban Meyer as Jax backup and flipping Minshew works too.

Now, if we can trade picks and end up with Lance or Fields, that's great too. And we have the pieces on offense where the Mac Attack could probably do well.

Lots of interesting options.
I'd like the Pats to add Alex Smith as the 3rd QB. Have him tutor the rookie and be the backup to Newton. He gets the ball out quick and is a game manager. His play action game is superior to Newton's and with an offense that can run, he would be terrific.
 

Wilfork#75

In the Starting Line-Up
The good news for a trade up is that Atlanta re-structured Matt Ryan’s contract and essentially committed to him for at least the next 2 years. I don’t see them going QB at #4 after that, I think they make one last push for a Super Bowl with Ryan and Julio Jones. That could be a spot for a team to trade up into though. I think it’s too high for us but I could see Carolina making that move.

The key for a trade up though is you need a partner willing to trade down. Atlanta could be motivated but the price would be too high. I don’t think Cinci or Philly would be too interested in moving all the way down to 15. Detroit at 7 makes the most sense. The Lions seem to be is a ‘soft tank’ while they evaluate what they have in Goff. I think they would be most open to accumulating picks, especially future picks. I also think we are in a good spot at 15 where it’s enough of a drop for Detroit to get a nice trade return but it’s still high enough to get a really good player. That is where we have an advantage over other teams like Chicago and Washington that could be looking to move up.

The other important question is realistically, how many rookies can make this roster? We have already filled a ton of holes and we still have around $20mil in cap space and Belichick hasn’t even gone bargain shopping yet. I think as long as the draft falls right there is a high likelihood we trade up. I think it could look like 2007 where we make a 1st round pick and don’t pick again until the 4th round.
 

manxman2601

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club
The good news for a trade up is that Atlanta re-structured Matt Ryan’s contract and essentially committed to him for at least the next 2 years. I don’t see them going QB at #4 after that, I think they make one last push for a Super Bowl with Ryan and Julio Jones. That could be a spot for a team to trade up into though. I think it’s too high for us but I could see Carolina making that move.

The key for a trade up though is you need a partner willing to trade down. Atlanta could be motivated but the price would be too high. I don’t think Cinci or Philly would be too interested in moving all the way down to 15. Detroit at 7 makes the most sense. The Lions seem to be is a ‘soft tank’ while they evaluate what they have in Goff. I think they would be most open to accumulating picks, especially future picks. I also think we are in a good spot at 15 where it’s enough of a drop for Detroit to get a nice trade return but it’s still high enough to get a really good player. That is where we have an advantage over other teams like Chicago and Washington that could be looking to move up.

The other important question is realistically, how many rookies can make this roster? We have already filled a ton of holes and we still have around $20mil in cap space and Belichick hasn’t even gone bargain shopping yet. I think as long as the draft falls right there is a high likelihood we trade up. I think it could look like 2007 where we make a 1st round pick and don’t pick again until the 4th round.
Clearly, if ever there was a year to get your future QB, this is it. And I agree with everything you said, their moves do suggest a first round QB is the logical outcome even if that requires a trade up. That assumes they like one of the QBs though.
 

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