Realistic trade packages to move up and take a QB in the draft

[patfanken]

I'm very impressed with the way Sims talks. He's very persuasive in his presentation. So much for Kellen Mond lasting til the 3r of 4th rounds. But the bottom line is that there IS a good possibility that a very good QB prospect is going to be there at 15 (say Lance, Jones or Mond). I think Lance or Mond would be better suited to what the offense is going to be like in 2021 behind Cam Newton. Jones would also benefit from the 2 TE's, but he's a guy who looks like he'd benefit from the old Tom Brady offense in and also more likely to be NFL ready than Mond and Lance.

Sims seems to be confident that Jones is better at the issues of good feet, escapablity within the pocket and progression vision than I was led to believe from stuff that I had previously read. I would love to hear from @BaconGrundleCandy and some of the other of the great draft geeks on Sims' thoughts. (and so would the rest of Patfans' nation because those guys know their stuff and the rest of us would benefit from the discussion)

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I'm very impressed with the way Phil Sims talks. He's very persuasive in his presentation. So much for Kellen Mond lasting til the 3r of 4th rounds. But the bottom line is that there IS a good possibility that a very good QB prospect is going to be there at 15 (say Lance, Jones or Mond). I think Lance or Mond would be better suited to what the offense is going to be like in 2021 behind Cam Newton. Jones would also benefit from the 2 TE's, but he's a guy who looks like he'd benefit from the old Tom Brady offense in and also more likely to be NFL ready than Mond and Lance.

Sims seems to be confident that Jones is better at the issues of good feet, escapablity within the pocket and progression vision than I was led to believe from stuff that I had previously read. I would love to hear from @BaconGrundleCandy and some of the other of the great draft geeks on Sims' thoughts. (and so would the rest of Patfans' nation because those guys know their stuff and the rest of us would benefit from the discussion)

So I think I've seen his rankings but haven't heard him go in depth.

My thoughts on Mond are ... From my notes ...
Mechanics are tight compact. Isn't doing himself any favors imI. Mechanics-Delivery are tight, little room for error with release/follow through - too low. Upper & lower aren't working together at times. It works but doesn't look natural sometimes.

Arm is good-ish. NFL windows across the MOF, feathering over a defender look like tough asks rn. Good enough but not special. Velocity doesn't look great. Doesn't trust it to make it happen unless as often as he could.

Decent improvement year to year
See the pocket presence improve but feel isn't good enough. Anticipation isn't there. Maybe that's his arm too?? Ask someone smarter? Reads, pressure, coverage - not quick enough. Awareness improved but he's a statue at times. Doesn't have the mobility to overcome being late.

Box score improved. Looks confident.

Has to try to fool defenders at least a little bit. Eyes, body language advertise at times.

Good in shallow/MOF shows some anticipation. Arm angles. Again why so low?

RPO/RO/PA, stick & shoot. He needs a lot of help. The works. He can run an offense. Trubisky-lite without the wheels? I see potential backup ?

@patfanken I like him as a backup. Have a 3rd on him. If someone wants him before 3rd-4th they can have him. I'll spend a 2nd on Mills if we really like him but that's about it. Mond is a bit of a project imo.

 

[manxman2601]

Just playing around with the PFF mock, I think we may need to trade ahead of SF to get Mac Jones. Unless of course, Greg Bedard is right and the Pats really want Jimmy G then they can probably afford to let the 49ers pick Jones/Lance and then trade them 15 for Jimmy G. Not convinced by that strategy personally. A lot to give up for a brittle QB.

 

[IllegalContact]

1st round QB's 2016-2019 success is by no means assured:
2019
Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
Daniel Jones Giants Duke
Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
2018
Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
Sam Darnold Jets USC
Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
2017
Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
2016
Jared Goff Rams California
Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis

 

[patfanken]

1st round QB's 2016-2019 success is by no means assured:
2019
Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
Daniel Jones Giants Duke
Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
2018
Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
Sam Darnold Jets USC
Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
2017
Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
2016
Jared Goff Rams California
Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis

YIKES!

 

[VJCPatriot]

1st round QB's 2016-2019 success is by no means assured:
2019
Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
Daniel Jones Giants Duke
Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
2018
Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
Sam Darnold Jets USC
Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
2017
Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
2016
Jared Goff Rams California
Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis

Putting aside 2016. In 2019 that's a 67% hit rate, 2018 is a 60% hit rate, and 2017 is a 67% hit rate. And when you hit you get a really talented young guy on a rookie contract which allows you to spend more around him. You miss 100% of the hits you don't swing at. QB is a huge need. Cam looks like a stop gap. We're at the plate. Bottom of the 9th. Take that SWING BB!!

 

[mgteich]

Just playing around with the PFF mock, I think we may need to trade ahead of SF to get Mac Jones. Unless of course, Greg Bedard is right and the Pats really want Jimmy G then they can probably afford to let the 49ers pick Jones/Lance and then trade them 15 for Jimmy G. Not convinced by that strategy personally. A lot to give up for a brittle QB.

If SF wants Jones, they can trade Jimmy G to us for a 2nd. They will then have the #12 plus an extra 2nd to move up if necessary.

We seem to look at a team and judge whether they will draft a QB. Obviously, we should consider whether someone would trade for that spot.

In any case, I don't Jones available at 15. He may be picked "early" but some teams consider him a potential top 10 QB. If so, trading up makes sense. Also, there is no reason to believe that having a target in 3rd will in any way guarantee that the player will be available when we pick.
=============
My BOTTOM line is that I expect that Bill will get his man. He could trade for Jimmy. He could move up in the draft. If his man is other than Jones, he may have to move up to 4 or 5. One mock has us moving to 4 for Lance. Others have him available at 7 or 8.

 

[IllegalContact]

Putting aside 2016. In 2019 that's a 67% hit rate, 2018 is a 60% hit rate, and 2017 is a 67% hit rate. And when you hit you get a really talented young guy on a rookie contract which allows you to spend more around him. You miss 100% of the hits you don't swing at. QB is a huge need. Cam looks like a stop gap. We're at the plate. Bottom of the 9th. Take that SWING BB!!

why are you putting aside 2016? Murray and Jones are by no means 'hits' yet

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I'd definitely get "the guy" and get another in the 5th to 7th round, or even UDFA.

BB has no qualms trading a blockbuster QB if another QB ranked much lower, beats him out for the job. He'll do that again in a flash.

Just to note, this is exactly what Washington did in 2012. Traded a huge package to move up for RGIII, then drafted Cousins with the 4th rounder. Not saying that Washington is a franchise anyone should emulate in general, but it actually worked out pretty decently for them when RGIII’s injury effectively ended his NFL starting career.

 

[DarrylS]

In any case, I don't Jones available at 15. He may be picked "early" but some teams consider him a potential top 10 QB. If so, trading up makes sense. Also, there is no reason to believe that having a target in 3rd will in any way guarantee that the player will be available when we pick.
=============
My BOTTOM line is that I expect that Bill will get his man. He could trade for Jimmy. He could move up in the draft. If his man is other than Jones, he may have to move up to 4 or 5. One mock has us moving to 4 for Lance. Others have him available at 7 or 8.

Hard not to like a QB like Jones with a 77% completion rate and a 41 to 4 TD/Int ration.. he also comes from the battle hardened SEC.

It is said he cannot throw the long ball, with 2 quality TE's + better receivers he might not have to and they can return to the dink & dunk yac days...

 

[scott99]

1st round QB's 2016-2019 success is by no means assured:
2019
Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
Daniel Jones Giants Duke
Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
2018
Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
Sam Darnold Jets USC
Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
2017
Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
2016
Jared Goff Rams California
Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis

I would say that Goff & Wentz have had some success in the NFL. NOBODY had Lynch as a 1st round pick, except the team that selected him. Even Trubisky had some success.

 

[Patsgofor4]

1st round QB's 2016-2019 success is by no means assured:
2019
Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
Daniel Jones Giants Duke
Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
2018
Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
Sam Darnold Jets USC
Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
2017
Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
2016
Jared Goff Rams California
Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis

You are setting the “success” bar low with Jones.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Just playing around with the PFF mock, I think we may need to trade ahead of SF to get Mac Jones. Unless of course, Greg Bedard is right and the Pats really want Jimmy G then they can probably afford to let the 49ers pick Jones/Lance and then trade them 15 for Jimmy G. Not convinced by that strategy personally. A lot to give up for a brittle QB.

You had me until “trade them 15 for Jimmy G.” That would be a bigtime overpay.

 

[IllegalContact]

I would say that Goff & Wentz have had some success in the NFL. NOBODY had Lynch as a 1st round pick, except the team that selected him. Even Trubisky had some success.

do you realize what was traded to get trubisky, goff, and wentz? as for Lynch, not everyone has Mac Jones in the 1st, either.

the point is pretty abstract.....the vast majority of these guys don't move the needle

 

[IllegalContact]

You are setting the “success” bar low with Jones.

maybe, even so, my point is made without him being a bust

 

[patsinthesnow]

pats receive

5th overall pick (1700 points)
69th overall pick (245 points)
1945 points

bengals receive

15th overall pick (1050 points)
46th overal pick (440 points)
future 1st round pick (~500 points)
~2000 points

draft picks

5th
69th
96th
120th
122nd
139th

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Trey Lance has only played his freshman season, has never taken the field against any player who will ever be in the NFL, and you want mortgage the future on him and give him the keys to the Kingdom? What's the reason he went to NDSU? Every Div 1 school wanted him to play DB, none of them considered him as a QB.

Lance is the biggest "what if" in this draft. Kellon Mond would have had just as much if not more sucess if he was at NDSU, but instead he is a three year starter in the SEC.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I

Trey Lance has only played his freshman season, has never taken the field against any player who will ever be in the NFL, and you want mortgage the future on him and give him the keys to the Kingdom? What's the reason he went to NDSU? Every Div 1 school wanted him to play DB, none of them considered him as a QB.

Lance is the biggest "what if" in this draft. Kellon Mond would have had just as much if not more sucess if he was at NDSU, but instead he is a three year starter in the SEC.

I do like Mond a lot. I don’t think he’s as athletic or has the arm strength.
Schools have been wrong before Mr Tom Brady was benched for Drew Henson. Just saying. If they trade up for Lance they better be damn sure.

 

[Sciz]

pats receive

5th overall pick (1700 points)
69th overall pick (245 points)
1945 points

bengals receive

15th overall pick (1050 points)
46th overal pick (440 points)
future 1st round pick (~500 points)
~2000 points

draft picks

5th
69th
96th
120th
122nd
139th

As far back as I can find (PFR goes back to 1994), the Bengals have never traded present draft picks for future draft picks. I wouldn't plan on that changing.

 

[yukon cornelius]

lance is high risk/high ceiling for sure; jones is safer with a much lower ceiling imho

i still say theres QB's in that QB4-QB7 (based on conventional media wisdom...haha) range that they may have valued higher

i think it's safe to say lawrence/wilson/fields bring you down into QB4 range......regardless of who you have at 4-8 or so.........they may see it differently, but those 3 seem to be most everyone's top 3......you aren't likely to get 1 or 2, 3 would involve a pretty hefty price......we may see them trade up to take the 4th or 5th QB off the board, depending on how that shakes out, IF they value that guy......but there's no guarantee they do

i still think it's just as likely they trade back up into one or two to get a guy they like, and it may not be a move to take the "consensus" QB1-QB4 that happens........there's a lot of what ifs, a lot of volatility in the whole draft, especially in the QB market

it might be jones at 15.......it COULD be a move up to 7 to land a fields or a lance.......but it could. just as likely be a move later to take a mond or a mills or someone else