Rapaport: Blount and Pats have mutual interest

[SHOWTIME15]

Nope. The Pats leaned very heavily no the two back receiving set out of the shotgun last season and I see it happening again in 2017. The two of them on the field together just gives the offense too much versatility and creates a lot of pressure on the D. Heck, even when only one is in the game it causes the D to have to make certain decisions. Unless Dion gets a serious injury, which is always a possibility with him, he's on the roster in 2017.

I really think it depends on lewis' knee. If he's the old lewis you keep both. However, Lewis seemed to struggle in the super bowl.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Unless Foster or a rookie beats Dion out of his roster spot in Camp. Always a possibility.

Respect. I hear you. Yeah, of course. But what has Foster shown thus far that would make anyone confident this will happen? And the draft hasn't happened yet. Remember last year when everyone was sure Bill would draft a RB?

 

[PatsBoy12]

Problem is they just spent 3M on a guy who can also fit this role. Lewis has been my favorite Patriot since August 2015, but he is very vulnerable in the numbers game right now.

This is a valid point, Elijah. But I still just don't see a healthy Dion Lewis being cut from this roster.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I really think it depends on lewis' knee. If he's the old lewis you keep both. However, Lewis seemed to struggle in the super bowl.

I think he wasn't all the way back last year. We've seen mostly that most players regain full form in season two following an ACL (Welker and Revis come to mind).

Also, I agree with you that he struggled in the SB. Word was that he had a sore hamstring and that ended up being why he wasn't more prominently featured in the game. He looked to fully irritate it on that last carry in regulation. As you and others have pointed out, however, anything is possible. I just have a hard time seeing a healthy Lewis being cut from the roster. I just can't reconcile that, even in a numbers game at RB or other skill positions. Burkhead or someone else would have to light TC on fire for that to happen.

 

[maineman209]

Yes



The numbers indicate otherwise: 56/67 (84%) for Lewis v. 105/145 (72%) for White



Not a determining issue



Lewis is a better running back, even when coming back from ACL surgery, and he'll be more than a year clear from that, in 2017-2018.

Not sure where you got your numbers, but here are the numbers from Pro-Football-Reference for 2016 (including playoffs) ...

White - 78/107 (73%), 688 yds (8.8 ypc), 7 TDs, 0 fumbles
... rivals Kevin Faulk's best seasons as a receiver out of the backfield. And Faulk fumbled a lot more.

Lewis - 22/36 (61%), 127 yds (5.8 ypc), 1 TD, 3 fumbles

And you might want to discuss your hypothesis that pass-pro/blitz pickup isn't a "determining issue" with Brady, McD and BB.

 

[maineman209]

Respect. I hear you. Yeah, of course. But what has Foster shown thus far that would make anyone confident this will happen? And the draft hasn't happened yet. Remember last year when everyone was sure Bill would draft a RB?

It ain't over till it's over.

We don't know that BB won't draft an RB, or sign a few UDFAs, anyway (like Foster last year). The Pats rarely have less than 6-8 RBs on the 90-man roster through OTAs and even into Camp. They only have four under contract at the moment, and three of those contracts expire at the end of this season.

We don't know how Foster may have developed by the end of Camp (the Pats kept him on the 53-man all last season instead of exposing him to waivers attempting to transfer him to the pSquad.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not sure where you got your numbers, but here are the numbers from Pro-Football-Reference for 2016 (including playoffs) ...

White - 78/107 (73%), 688 yds (8.8 ypc), 7 TDs, 0 fumbles
... rivals Kevin Faulk's best seasons as a receiver out of the backfield. And Faulk fumbled a lot more.

Lewis - 22/36 (61%), 127 yds (5.8 ypc), 1 TD, 3 fumbles

And you might want to discuss your hypothesis that pass-pro/blitz pickup isn't a "determining issue" with Brady, McD and BB.

I got my numbers from the same site you did. I just used their career numbers, while you skewed the data by only using last season.

And I don't have to discuss my hypothesis with Brady, McD and BB, because they've already weighed in. If the pass protection was such a huge factor, Woodhead would not have been let go instead of Vereen.

Lewis is better than White. If you're keeping just one, and both have one year deals, you have a simple question:

Better RB with higher injury likelihood v. Lesser RB with lower injury likelihood

Historically, BB has gone with the talent.

 

[maineman209]

LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots have mutual interest in return, per report

Well this is going to disappoint those who wanted AP...I myself felt the whole AP thing was just as a precautionary measure in case Blount signs elsewhere.

Jeff Howe and Tom Curran have each speculated that this might be merely he Pats doing a favor for Peterson's agent (which was also my first thought).

Peterson's agent is Ben Dogra, formerly of CAA, who has also repped a few Pats' players (e.g., Vollmer) and, by all accounts, had a pretty good working relationship with the Pats in various negotiations. Dogra was fired by CAA last year and had his license suspended by the NFLPA for "unspecified bad conduct". He was just reinstated by the NFLPA in late February.

That doesn't mean that meeting with Peterson could also have been a bit of "negotiation-fu" with regard to Blount, but I kinda doubt it. I think it's somewhat likely that the Pats and Blount have a gentleman's agreement that he'll be re-signed in mid-July - after OTAs and just in time for Camp. That would conform with a pattern that the Pats have followed with their own, older veteran UFAs in years past.

In any case, IIRC, May 10th is the date that UFA signings no longer count in the compensatory-pick formula for 2018. Odds seem pretty high that no other team will sign Blount before then and risk screwing up whatever comp picks they may have coming.

 

[shmessy]

He's money at the goal line but I remember too many 1- and 2-yard carries on first and second down. He carried the ball a lot last year (299 times) and had only seven carries of 20-plus yards. I think people want to see someone with more breakaway ability on first and second downs.

So, your stats mean he was pretty damn consistent if he averaged 3.9 ypc.

.

 

[maineman209]

I got my numbers from the same site you did. I just used their career numbers, while you skewed the data by only using last season.

And I don't have to discuss my hypothesis with Brady, McD and BB, because they've already weighed in. If the pass protection was such a huge factor, Woodhead would not have been let go instead of Vereen.

Lewis is better than White. If you're keeping just one, and both have one year deals, you have a simple question:

Better RB with higher injury likelihood v. Lesser RB with lower injury likelihood

Historically, BB has gone with the talent.

Where White is now based on his most recent season carries a buttload more weight for me than where he was while he was developing. The fact is that White had more targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs in 2016 than Lewis has accumulated in his entire NFL career.

I guess we just disagree on what's important.

 

[maineman209]

Damn

that does kind of blow

Obviously it's a lot of money for a normal dude, but in the NFL he really has never cashed in. No wonder he's holding out for every cent he can get

We don't know that he's "holding out" and probably won't until he signs here or somewhere else.

 

[maineman209]

He's money at the goal line but I remember too many 1- and 2-yard carries on first and second down. He carried the ball a lot last year (299 times) and had only seven carries of 20-plus yards. I think people want to see someone with more breakaway ability on first and second downs.

That's six more 20+ yard carries than the rest of the Pats combined. The only other Pat with a carry for longer than 16 yards was Brissett with one for 27. Blount broke three for 41+.

 

[maineman209]

I guess Belichick may decide to go with no RB's signed for 2018: Lewis, Bulkhead, White and Blount.

DJ Foster is signed through 2018. So, there's that.

 

[maineman209]

Whatever became of Patmuslim and Patjehovah'switness?

Last I hears they were partnering with Patshindu to write a bunch of "guy walks into a juice bar" jokes.

 

[Deus Irae]

Where White is now based on his most recent season carries a buttload more weight for me than where he was while he was developing. The fact is that White had more targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs in 2016 than Lewis has accumulated in his entire NFL career.

I guess we just disagree on what's important.

Well, one of is is slanting the data by using a post-ACL season and ignoring the non-ACL (well, the before ACL injury portion of) season so, yeah, we disagree on what's important.

However, if you want to level the playing field a bit, just take a look at the following:

Lewis 2015 - 36 receptions in 7 games
Lewis 2016 - 17 receptions in 7 games

White 2015 - 40 receptions in 14 games
White 2016 - 60 receptions in 16 games

In other words, even with the ACL issue clearly impacting his numbers last year, Lewis (3.8) is averaging more receptions per game than is White (3.3), since Lewis joined the team. Lewis, with that 3.8 (3.7857), is even averaging more receptions per game than White averaged in his best year (last season) (3.75).

 

[maineman209]

Too many times I've seen the running game fail on short yardage 3rd and 4th downs, not sure if this is on Blount or the O-line, but something needs to get fixed.

In 2016, the Pats were 4th best in the league on 3rd-down conversions (with the 3rd most 3rd-down conversion attempts) and 7th best on 4th downs (only 12 attempted).

They also had the 6th most rushing first downs and the 5th most rushing TDs.

And yet, for some reason, a lot of folks seem to think that the Pats ground game is mediocre.

Blount literally did 75% of that ground game work, but he's mediocre, too.

 

[maineman209]

Well, one of is is slanting the data by using a post-ACL season and ignoring the non-ACL (well, the before ACL injury portion of) season so, yeah, we disagree on what's important.

However, if you want to level the playing field a bit, just take a look at the following:

Lewis 2015 - 36 receptions in 7 games
Lewis 2016 - 17 receptions in 7 games

White 2015 - 40 receptions in 14 games
White 2016 - 60 receptions in 16 games

In other words, even with the ACL issue clearly impacting his numbers last year, Lewis (3.8) is averaging more receptions per game than is White (3.3), since Lewis joined the team. Lewis, with that 3.8 (3.7857), is even averaging more receptions per game than White averaged in his best year (last season) (3.75).

Fine. Have it your way.

I'm just an inexperienced idiot who knows nothing about football and who cherry-picks and slants stats.

You win.

 

[Deus Irae]

Fine. Have it your way.

I'm just an inexperienced idiot who knows nothing about football and who cherry-picks and slants stats.

You win.

Don't get all weepyvag over this. You were basically ignoring Lewis' first year in New England, and ignoring White's first and second years. I was not. You were also the one who wrote

I guess we just disagree on what's important.

and I agreed.

And, yes, you comparing a down, post-injury season of Lewis to White's best season is cherry picking stats. That's why I incorporated the 2015 season, but not either player's earlier seasons, in order to make the playing field a bit more even.

 

[Tunescribe]

So, your stats mean he was pretty damn consistent if he averaged 3.9 ypc.

.

I think he's pretty mediocre except at the goal line. It would be refreshing to see a genuine threat in the backfield once again, especially to take some of the weight off Brady's shoulders in his "twilight" years.

 

[Jangles]

We don't know that he's "holding out" and probably won't until he signs here or somewhere else.

I didn't necessarily mean holding out

just sitting around hoping something comes along