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Preview Thread: Patriots @ Raiders (Mexico City)


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Tony2046

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We're on to the Raiders.

Thanks to @Ross12 for keeping these threads Hot Take free.

In short we are wanting to look at the upcoming team's tape, game summaries, scheme, statistical rankings, potential match-ups, etc... and discuss them.

Let's Gooooo!!

How they match up: New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders - November 19th, 2017 - Azteca Stadium | Pro-Football-Reference.com

upload_2017-11-18_3-51-12.png upload_2017-11-18_4-32-34.png

Key Notes:

1. The Raiders have 6 turnovers in the last 2 games (3 Int's and 3 Fumbles). Could have been more as they have fumbled 7 times.

2. Derek Carr has 7 interception on the year. (He missed a game). Interceptions were because: 1. He has no problem throwing a deep 50/50 ball. 2. He has a slight side arm delivery which gets batted down or deflected at the line occasionally. and 3. He and his receiver were not always on the same page. But Carr is an accurate thrower and can throw it into a tight window.

3. Cooper is a dangerous athlete but he drops a lot of balls (49.35 % completion rate), runs the wrong routes and seems to be a little nervous in traffic. But he's dangerous when he catches them.

4. All their receivers are 6 foot plus and Carr will throw jump balls in the end zone. Their most reliable receiver is TE Jared Cook (70.91 %) and is 6' 5". Crabtree is their solid veteran. Both are decent Red zone targets. Need to take both of them out of the game as they seem to be Carr's go to guys.

5. Their running game doesn't look impressive at all but they do have Washington who is a White like RB although not nearly as good with his hands but still adequate. They use him in a lot of screens, play action type of stuff.

6. Carr has the shortest Time to Throw stat in the NFL at 2.33 seconds. I'm not sure what to make of these stats yet as they are somewhat new to me. I will say that in the last three Raider games I watched Carr does get rid of the ball quickly via quick slants, screens and quick play action pass stuff. They use the quick stuff to set up their one or two home run attempts the take seemingly every freaking series.

Passing Stats | NFL Next Gen Stats

Note: To the GDT'ers. Don't panic if they connect on one or two of these because they are the same type passes that could turn into one or two turnovers.

7. The Raiders defense has a decent front 4 obviously and their OLB's seem good at protecting the edge and sideline to sideline. They do seem vulnerable in the middle and in the secondary. They can get burned by a speedster type receiver (Cooks and Dorsett could have a good game) and Lewis and Burkhead might get some good yardage up the middle but not much around the edges. imo.

These are just my thoughts after watching their last 3 games. They beat KC in Oakland but needed fifteen flags to score the go ahead touchdown with 0:00 left on the clock. They turned the ball over 4 times in Buffalo and gave it away two more times in Miami.

The Pats should win this game comfortably but need to be cautious of the multiple big play attempts the Raiders will throw at them but OTOH, McCourty and Harmon may have a good shot at getting an interception or two.

I will post some video examples later today.

lets-go.jpg
 
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This is a typical Carr throwing it deep downfield. He trusts his receivers.

 
This is a typical Carr throwing it deep downfield. He trusts his receivers.


Shareece Wright in coverage on Crabtree.

Crabtree seems to do a fairly nice job of not telegraphing the incoming throw until the last instant. But then, Wright doesn't notice Crabtree's turn or react quite fast enough.

I'm also not sure about Wright's technique on the route (the big cushion to begin with) - it almost seems to invite the throw. I wonder if more LoS contact and close trail wouldn't deter some of these deep shots, or is Crabtree too fast for that?
 
We're on to the Raiders.

Thanks to @Ross12 for keeping these threads Hot Take free.

In short we are wanting to look at the upcoming team's tape, game summaries, scheme, statistical rankings, potential match-ups, etc... and discuss them.

Let's Gooooo!!

How they match up: New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders - November 19th, 2017 - Azteca Stadium | Pro-Football-Reference.com

View attachment 18638 View attachment 18642

Key Notes:

1. The Raiders have 6 turnovers in the last 2 games (3 Int's and 3 Fumbles). Could have been more as they have fumbled 7 times.

2. Derek Carr has 7 interception on the year. (He missed a game). Interceptions were because: 1. He has no problem throwing a deep 50/50 ball. 2. He has a slight side arm delivery which gets batted down or deflected at the line occasionally. and 3. He and his receiver were not always on the same page. But Carr is an accurate thrower and can throw it into a tight window.

3. Cooper is a dangerous athlete but he drops a lot of balls (49.35 % completion rate), runs the wrong routes and seems to be a little nervous in traffic. But he's dangerous when he catches them.

4. All their receivers are 6 foot plus and Carr will throw jump balls in the end zone. Their most reliable receiver is TE Jared Cook (70.91 %) and is 6' 5". Crabtree is their solid veteran. Both are decent Red zone targets. Need to take both of them out of the game as they seem to be Carr's go to guys.

5. Their running game doesn't look impressive at all but they do have Washington who is a White like RB although not nearly as good with his hands but still adequate. They use him in a lot of screens, play action type of stuff.

6. Carr has the shortest Time to Throw stat in the NFL at 2.33 seconds. I'm not sure what to make of these stats yet as they are somewhat new to me. I will say that in the last three Raider games I watched Carr does get rid of the ball quickly via quick slants, screens and quick play action pass stuff. They use the quick stuff to set up their one or two home run attempts the take seemingly every freaking series.

Passing Stats | NFL Next Gen Stats

Note: To the GDT'ers. Don't panic if they connect on one or two of these because they are the same type passes that could turn into one or two turnovers.

7. The Raiders defense has a decent front 4 obviously and their OLB's seem good at protecting the edge and sideline to sideline. They do seem vulnerable in the middle and in the secondary. They can get burned by a speedster type receiver (Cooks and Dorsett could have a good game) and Lewis and Burkhead might get some good yardage up the middle but not much around the edges. imo.

These are just my thoughts after watching their last 3 games. They beat KC in Oakland but needed fifteen flags to score the go ahead touchdown with 0:00 left on the clock. They turned the ball over 4 times in Buffalo and gave it away two more times in Miami.

The Pats should win this game comfortably but need to be cautious of the multiple big play attempts the Raiders will throw at them but OTOH, McCourty and Harmon may have a good shot at getting an interception or two.

I will post some video examples later today.

lets-go.jpg
I don’t watch them as closely as you probably think, I don’t get to be on here as often as I’d like lol - credit yourselves for self-policing well enough to where we don’t have to constantly watch.
 
The Raiders' defense is underwhelming on so many levels, it's tough to know where to begin. I've been looking at some all-22 and it just seems like they do little to disguise what they are up to. Look for the Patriots to put somebody in motion on every play to get an instant tell, and then for the Pats to go with a lot of White, Burkhead and Lewis all over the formation.

The Raiders have poor corners and and don't tackle well after the catch. This is good news for a guy like Cooks who may break one off in this one. Once he separates, he's gone. Amendola should have a lot of YAC. Their best corner is a rookie who is on IR.

Kahlil Mack is a beast off the edge. He'll move around is my guess with Andrews out. Brady will always know where he is and he'll get chipped by Gronk, Allen or the backs. I expect the Patriots to run at Mack early and often to neutralize and tire him him out. I'd use Gillislee in because the Raiders' line is average, and their LBs will be consumed by Marty Bennett and Gronk coming up the seams on a regular basis.

The Raiders' safeties are pretty good, but because their corners suck, they have to sit back in coverage to clean up.

Pats will hit 30+.
 
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The Raiders' defense is underwhelming on so many levels, it's tough to know where to begin. I've been looking at some all-22 and it just seems like they do little to disguise what they are up to. Look for the Patriots to put somebody in motion on every play to get an instant tell, and then for the Pats to go with a lot of White, Burkhead and Lewis all over the formation.

The Raiders have poor corners and and don't tackle well after the catch. This is good news for a guy like Cooks who may break one off in this one. Once he separates, he's gone. Amendola should have a lot of YAC. Their best corner is a rookie who is on IR.

Kahlil Mack is a beast off the edge. He'll move around is my guess with Andrews out. Brady will always know where he is and he'll get chipped by Gronk, Allen or the backs. I expect the Patriots to run at Mack early and often to neutralize and tire him him out. I'd use Gillislee in because the Raiders' line is average, and their LBs will be consumed by Marty Bennett and Gronk coming up the seams on a regular basis.

The Raiders' safeties are pretty good, but because their corners suck, they have to sit back in coverage to clean up.

Pats will hit 30+.

I want to look at their safeties closer. I didn't think they were that good as they seemed to over commit early but you might be right and they are instead over compensating for poor CB play.
 
Shareece Wright in coverage on Crabtree.

Crabtree seems to do a fairly nice job of not telegraphing the incoming throw until the last instant. But then, Wright doesn't notice Crabtree's turn or react quite fast enough.

I'm also not sure about Wright's technique on the route (the big cushion to begin with) - it almost seems to invite the throw. I wonder if more LoS contact and close trail wouldn't deter some of these deep shots, or is Crabtree too fast for that?

I think that throw was by design. Carr looks to his right which moves the safety out of the play and just throws (lobs ?) it up in Crabtree's vicinity.

He trusts Crabtree to go get it.

What do you call this type of throw? A back shoulder lob? :D
 
Let me add this nice pod from Raiders perspective.
Some might not like the ending but first part is well worth a listen. Its actually more about Pats than Oaks (who could blame them). Good insight in blacks as well from their beats and coach. Plus Chris Simms.
Spoiler: you will like what you'll hear..;)

Week 11 Podcast: Pagano, Simms, Volin, Gehlken, Paskal
The host talks about Jack Tatum! OMG. Is Ben Dreith the ref? They keep talking about the Pats giving up yards. They want a shootout. Let's do it. This pod cast is great!
 
Here is my things to look for list: (Got lucky last week so let's try it again)

1. Raider turnovers: Carr has no fear throwing up 50/50 balls and does so often. Occasionally he has balls tipped at the LOS or downfield because of his unique throwing motion. Further he and his receivers are not always on the same page which leads to Carr throwing to an open DB rather than a receiver.

2. Look for the Pats to have success running up the middle. That's where the Raider's front seven seem to be the weakest.

3. Look for one of or both of the speedy Patriots receivers (Cooks or Dorsett) to have a few big plays. Speed seems to kill their secondary.

4. Re-turnovers: Carr doesn't have the best pocket awareness and has been strip sacked a few times this year. The O Line weakness is on the offensive middle to right side. Carr sometimes gets careless with the ball under pressure.

5. Look for Patriots defense to take away Crabtree, Cook and possibly Washington. They are Carr's go to guys in 3rd down or red zone situations.


This should be a 14+ point win unless the Pats allow them to get lucky with a few of their home run shots downfield.
 
I think that throw was by design. Carr looks to his right which moves the safety out of the play and just throws (lobs ?) it up in Crabtree's vicinity.

He trusts Crabtree to go get it.

What do you call this type of throw? A back shoulder lob? :D

Not sure but I call it the "Leap of Faith" throw.....Mostly good things can happen for the offensive team....The WR can out jump the defender and go up and grab it, the Ref can throw a flag for PI, or it can be INC.......Not sure the stats on an INT but it is probably small if you have a short defender going up against a 6'5 receiver.......I hold my breath every time one of those throws is made against the Pats D.... :eek:
 
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