Predict Patrots 2010 record

[PatsFanSince74]

Maybe you can understand it this way.
We are talking about the average ranking. You have solved for how many teams there would be if you split the league in half.
To solve for the average ranking, you must add all of the values together and divide by the number of values. Avg=sum of numbers/amount of numbers
You can be ranked with each number from 1 thorugh 32. 1+2+3....+32= 528
528/32=16.5

See now it works for any quantity.
3 teams 1+2+3=6/3=2 2 is the average ranking for a 3 team league

4 teams 1+2+3+4=10/4=2.5 Less than 2nd is above average, more is below average, there is no 'average' team out of an even #, so an average ranking lies in between the 2 teams in the middle

Got it yet?

You guys are having such a great discussion here that I hesitate to intrude, but this might help.

Statisticians resolve the conundrum with which you seem to be dealing by differentiating between the "Median" and the "Mean" of a distribution. The Median is the midpoint, the Mean is the average. In the 50-50 likelihood that a distribution has an even number of observations, the Median is the average of the two middlemost observations.

Taking it just one level deeper, the Median seldom equals the Mean (to use your language, the "Average" is seldom equal to the "Midpoint") unless the distribution consists of a set of identical values, which is, of course, very rare and certainly not the case when it comes to 32 NFL teams. If the Mean is larger than the median, it suggests that the distribution is top heavy; if the Mean is smaller than the median, it suggest that the distribution is weighted to the lower end.

Finally, Statisticians derive the size of the Standard Deviation around the Mean as a way of resolving the problem I think (emphasis on "think") you are trying to solve, but I'll keep this short, other than to say that relying on Means (averages) to predict or define the behavior of the elements of a distribution is a dangerous thing to do. It's called the "Flaw of Averages."

Hope that helps and, one final question: what predictions did the two of you make that led to this informative debate? They're lost many pages back.

 

[Kulko]

We still face a schedule of tough defenses, (2x NYJ, 2x BUF, GB, Min, Bal, Pit) So I dont expect much improvement from the offense.

The defense OTOH, is still facing a bit of turnover, but has a lot of interesting prospects.

Overall I see the team as a Contender, but not a dominator. Combined with this tough schedule They should go 10-6.

Upside up to 12-4 is possible if the young players make a big leap.
Downside is probably 8-8 with a few unlucky breaks.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

I can see people underestimating this team...justifiably so.

But thats just looking at the surface....I think Brady aired what really needed to be said...and those who need to step up and be leaders...and there are plentywill do so.

I still am trying to put my finger on how this team is going to do this year....but I do get a feeling that this team is going to be muchbetter than the pundits predictions will be for us.

I can see a 12-4 season and back to the AFCCG in January.....

 

[Ochmed Jones]

On the plus side, Tom Brady and the passing game should be light years ahead of last year's team.

On the down side. The running game is terrible. The defensive secondary is miserable. And the pass rush is down right pathetic.

On the strength of Tom Brady's right arm, I think we go 8 and 8.

 

[BradyToAmendola]

I'll go with 11-5. Tough schedule.

 

[Calciumee]

I'm thinking 10-6 or 11-5.

Anything above that is very impressive!

 

[InRodWeRust]

11-5 AFC East Champs.

 

[italian pat patriot]

i go for 10-6

 

[Mountain_Commando]

14-2 or better.

Crow if I'm wrong.

Unrestricted bragging rights if I'm correct.

 

[QB12]

I'm going with 14-2 and Super Bowl champs, with Brady and Moss returning to their 2007 chemistry and form.

 

[bostonia3333]

9-7.

I think my biggest concern is offensive play calling creativity. Last year was just hideous. Yeah Welker is always open, but still. Tight ends need to be incorporated into the offense.

 

[Deus Irae]

9-7.

I think my biggest concern is offensive play calling creativity. Last year was just hideous. Yeah Welker is always open, but still. Tight ends need to be incorporated into the offense.

Baker couldn't get open. Watson was blocking a lot and seemed to fall out of favor with Brady. I don't think it's coincidence that the team has 3 shiny new tight ends, and I expect that you'll see both Hernandez and Gronkowski getting more than a catch a game. Heck, Crumpler could reach double digits as a (very) short yardage outlet, especially around the goal line if he's not completely cooked.

 

[mgteich]

If the defensive secondary is "miserable" and the pass rush "down right pathetic) as you indicate, then indeed we will be lucky to go 8-8.

Just BTW, how many teams in the league gave up fewer touchdowns and fewer points than the aweful pass-rush and secondary in 2009? Surely this performance must be lower than the playoff teams (out of the top 12). After all, our offense was top 5. What do credit the defensive performance with regard to these two metrics? Our awesome DL and ILB play in 2009 (with Seymour and without Mayo for much of the year)?

With regard to our "terrible" running game, one presumes that being in the top 12 in yards was do to the performance of the gimpy 2009 Brady and the awesome performance of his receivers in 2009. Surely our TE's and #3 WR were good enough to set up the run? Is that correct?

On the plus side, Tom Brady and the passing game should be light years ahead of last year's team.

On the down side. The running game is terrible. The defensive secondary is miserable. And the pass rush is down right pathetic.

On the strength of Tom Brady's right arm, I think we go 8 and 8.

 

[JackBauer]

Heck, Crumpler could reach double digits as a (very) short yardage outlet, especially around the goal line if he's not completely cooked.

I'd expect that, actually. Recent camp reports have been pretty positive.

 

[JackBauer]

If the defensive secondary is "miserable" and the pass rush "down right pathetic) as you indicate, then indeed we will be lucky to go 8-8.

Just BTW, how many teams in the league gave up fewer touchdowns and fewer points than the aweful pass-rush and secondary in 2009? Surely this performance must be lower than the playoff teams (out of the top 12). After all, our offense was top 5. What do credit the defensive performance with regard to these two metrics? Our awesome DL and ILB play in 2009 (with Seymour and without Mayo for much of the year)?

With regard to our "terrible" running game, one presumes that being in the top 12 in yards was do to the performance of the gimpy 2009 Brady and the awesome performance of his receivers in 2009. Surely our TE's and #3 WR were good enough to set up the run? Is that correct?

I think Ochmed is still bitter that we drafted Spikes and didn't draft the bucket o' lard that is Terrence Cody.

 

[mgteich]

You're probably right.

I would note that Cody was picked before Spikes. We would have had to take Cody instead of Cunningham. Cody was picked at 57, a huge disappointment for him and for Ochmed.

Belichick took his 1st round quality TE as 42, hoping that he would still be able to get an OLB and an ILB later in the round.

47 Washington
52 Worlds
53 Cunningham
54 Dunlop
55 Lee
62 Spikes

Getting Grankowski, Cunningham and Spikes was Belichick operating at his best.

Also getting McCourty, Hernandez, Price and Mesko by pick 150 is really unbelievable. Belichick was even still able to trade forward a pick).

I think Ochmed is still bitter that we drafted Spikes and didn't draft the bucket o' lard that is Terrence Cody.

 

[Mountain_Commando]

14-2 or better.

Crow if I'm wrong.

Unrestricted bragging rights if I'm correct.

Yup, I called it

I'm also calling Super Bowl 45 rings for our 2010 New England Patriots, superstitions be damned.

Lets go Pats! :rocker:

 

[JustEndTheSeason]

Yup, I called it

I'm also calling Super Bowl 45 rings for our 2010 New England Patriots, superstitions be damned.

Lets go Pats! :rocker:

Bragging rights unlocked

 

[A.C Vegas]

I am going on a limb and calling a 14-2 year.

Welker back first game.
Much improved running game.
Brady back to 100%
and being fired up by being called 3rd in the divison

14-2 check

welker game 1 check

improved running game check

brady 100% check

chip on shoulder check

bragging rights engaged

 

[Razor's Edge]

14-2
They will win the AFC East, Law firm will rush for more than 1000 yds. Tom will throw 335 passes without an interception, Mcourty will be a rookie of the year candidate, I'm just sayin'