Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game thread - 2025 AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

[Uptown]

2025 defenses by EPA

Chargers (6th)
Texans (2nd)
Broncos (8th)

 

[ViperGTS]

Interesting stat. Pats are 1-4 in playoffs versus Denver, winning at Foxboro and losing 4 times in Denver. All 4 times they lost at Denver, they had played Denver earlier that year ( 86,05,13,15), losing 3 of those times. I don't if it's relevant but maybe that gave them film on the Patriots. Good news is that they didn't face Denver this year so maybe the result will be different.

The Pats, much like the past 2 weeks, are still the vastly superior team IMO across all three phases.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Not sure if posted. Sorry if it was:

Drake Maye = Rob Johnson

Throws a pretty ball, is accurate, can run…and has the pocket awareness of a blind man.

www.twobillsdrive.com

And he has a better shot at getting to the Super Bowl before Josh Allen. Hahahahahahaha

 

[Hammer of Thor]

This is the 6th time the Pats and Broncos have met in the postseason. Broncos have won 4 of the prior 5, with the home team winning each time:

86 season, divisional round, Broncos won 22-17. I vividly remember 10 year old me watching a fuzzy screen on the rabbit ears, frustrated that the offense couldn’t move the ball in the 4th quarter, and then peeved when Eason took a safety right after Irving Fryar decided to field a punt at the 1 yard line. Ugh.

05 season, divisional round, Broncos won 27-13. Pats played well the first 20 minutes, then they let a bad PI call against Asante Samuel snowball, and everything that could go wrong afterwards did. The game Ben Watson chased down Champ Bailey, should have been a touchback though.

11 season, divisional round, Pats won 41-23 and it wasn’t that close. Pats made Tim Tebow perform worse than CJ Stroud.

13 season, AFC championship game, Broncos won 26-16. Pats were so injured this season that it was a great accomplishment they kept it this close. Welker injured Talib early in the game which changed the completion of it.

15 season, AFC championship game, Broncos won 20-18. Pats were also extremely injured, but Brady nearly pulled them back with a TD with 12 seconds to go. Unfortunately 2 point conversion attempt was picked off.

 

[Real fan 02]

He did, but I misread his post.

So he was referring to the 2005 Divisional??

 

[denverpatsfan]

This game will be like the 2016 matchup.
A tough grind it out win for the Pats that was closer than the final score indicates.
I knew that Pats team was going to compete for a championship after they won that day.
Patriots vs. Broncos Box Score, December 18, 2016 | The Football Database https://share.google/GNmra6JNBLm2S6lfi

 

[Real fan 02]

Interesting stat. Pats are 1-4 in playoffs versus Denver, winning at Foxboro and losing 4 times in Denver. All 4 times they lost at Denver, they had played Denver earlier that year ( 86,05,13,15), losing 3 of those times. I don't if it's relevant but maybe that gave them film on the Patriots. Good news is that they didn't face Denver this year so maybe the result will be different.

Looking back on those team here's what I gathered.. (well the Brady led teams..)

In the divisional The 2005 team was injured ravaged on defense and had good players but aging on defense and offense.. was in it until the champ Bailey INT

In The AFCCG the 2013 team had Austin collie at WR and a solid defense but Talib tapped out with injury.. in game.. that changed everything..

In The 2015 AFCCG that team what a weird game.. LB Jaime Collins forgot how to cover a TE and Gostowski misses a PAT.. this one here is the one that really eats me up the most.. we should have won..

 

[VJCPatriot]

We have a top 5 D in the league, and incredible defense in the playoffs. It has been a high pressure and turnover masterclass. We lead the playoffs in picks and sacks. Stidham will be called on to do everything. Denver's weakness is the run game. Its inconsistent, which means Stidham has to throw.

Weather and temp did play a part in Drake's fumbles, but you are right it needs to be better.

I am not sure of you noticed, but road games are kind of our thing. I am not being arrogant. Just factual. We are undefeated on the road this year. Citing other years where Bill's defense allowed poor QBs to excel is silly. Its not the same team, year, or scheme. The bend, but don't break on purpose era is over. We are in the smear the QB and punch everyone else in the face era.

Playing on the road is always tough. But this season's edition of the Patriots are the best road warriors in the NFL.

The Patriots are undefeated on the road which is crazy but true. They went 8-0 in the regular season on the road.

That just shows you what a great mental makeup they have and it starts from the top down. Vrabel has give this team a culture where they are not intimidated by anyone and are very well prepared even under adverse conditions.

The Patriots defense is also playing lights out in the playoffs and that usually fuels deep playoff runs when we judge by historic standards.

I know playing in Denver won't be easy. Thin air, hostile environment, crowd factor, etc.

But for good reason, I have confidence this version of the Patriots has a very good chance of winning and advancing to the Superbowl.

I don't believe Maye will have 3 mediocre performances in a row. But he does need to take care of the ball better and we need to protect him better against Denver.

Did you know that Denver's defense has the LOWEST amount of sacks in the entire NFL? They recorded only 23 for the year which is tied for dead last with the Rams. However that only measures how often they actually got the QB to the turf. In terms of defensive pressures the Broncos ranked 3rd in the NFL with a 41.8% pressure rate. They also managed a 39.7% no blitz pressure rate, good for 3rd in the NFL. This means they don't need to rely on the blitz to apply that pressure.

On top of the DL applying pressure they are very good against the run. They are 2nd in the entire NFL in terms of total rushing yards given up this season. So running the ball against them is going to be a tall order. Their pass defense was 11th in yards given up and only gave up 18 passing TDs good for 3rd in the league.

Overall this feels like another defensive matchup. Which defense can suppress the opposing offense better will likely end up the difference in this game. The main difference is I've seen Maye make some big plays when he needs to against an elite Texans defense. I have serious doubts Stidham can do the same against an elite Patriots defense.

 

[rochrist]

Yeah, when Stidham plays most of a season and throws 27TDs to 2 INTs, then I'll worry more about it.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

AFCCG. And to think where they were after week 1.

What a treat it’s been to watch them evolve.

Well, it's all come down to this

 

[Bill Lee]

We have a top 5 D in the league, and incredible defense in the playoffs. It has been a high pressure and turnover masterclass. We lead the playoffs in picks and sacks. Stidham will be called on to do everything. Denver's weakness is the run game. Its inconsistent, which means Stidham has to throw.

Weather and temp did play a part in Drake's fumbles, but you are right it needs to be better.

I am not sure of you noticed, but road games are kind of our thing. I am not being arrogant. Just factual. We are undefeated on the road this year. Citing other years where Bill's defense allowed poor QBs to excel is silly. Its not the same team, year, or scheme. The bend, but don't break on purpose era is over. We are in the smear the QB and punch everyone else in the face era.

Should also mention we have guys who can catch. We're past the days of Davante Parker, Nelson Agholor, N'keal Harry, etc.

The podcasts in my feed seem to not be noticing things like the Boutte catch or the Diggs catch, both clutch catches worthy of a playoff team, or that we might get Hollins back for the Denver game.

We're a pretty solid team all-around. I suppose they'll finally notice if/when we get past Denver and into the Super Bowl.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Playing on the road is always tough. But this season's edition of the Patriots are the best road warriors in the NFL.

The Patriots are undefeated on the road which is crazy but true. They went 8-0 in the regular season on the road.

That just shows you what a great mental makeup they have and it starts from the top down. Vrabel has give this team a culture where they are not intimidated by anyone and are very well prepared even under adverse conditions.

The Patriots defense is also playing lights out in the playoffs and that usually fuels deep playoff runs when we judge by historic standards.

I know playing in Denver won't be easy. Thin air, hostile environment, crowd factor, etc.

But for good reason, I have confidence this version of the Patriots has a very good chance of winning and advancing to the Superbowl.

I don't believe Maye will have 3 mediocre performances in a row. But he does need to take care of the ball better and we need to protect him better against Denver.

Did you know that Denver's defense has the LOWEST amount of sacks in the entire NFL? They recorded only 23 for the year which is tied for dead last with the Rams. However that only measures how often they actually got the QB to the turf. In terms of defensive pressures the Broncos ranked 3rd in the NFL with a 41.8% pressure rate. They also managed a 39.7% no blitz pressure rate, good for 3rd in the NFL. This means they don't need to rely on the blitz to apply that pressure.

On top of the DL applying pressure they are very good against the run. They are 2nd in the entire NFL in terms of total rushing yards given up this season. So running the ball against them is going to be a tall order. Their pass defense was 11th in yards given up and only gave up 18 passing TDs good for 3rd in the league.

Overall this feels like another defensive matchup. Which defense can suppress the opposing offense better will likely end up the difference in this game. The main difference is I've seen Maye make some big plays when he needs to against an elite Texans defense. I have serious doubts Stidham can do the same against an elite Patriots defense.

These are great points and show who Denver is as the #1 ranked team in the AFC. Our o-line is still the weakest chain in our link, but Josh did a decent job chipping and protecting with the right calls. But he can't fix ball security. Players do that. I don't see Drake fumbling in Denver like he did vs TX. I don't care what Andy says, it was partially related to weather. Drake is also not a cold weather QB yet. This is his first playoff run and he needs to grow in that area.

I think its a great defensive matchup, but I cannot see Denver putting up a lot of points. If we knock the crap our of Stid like we did Stroud, he will cough up the ball just as much. If Drake just manages the game well, limits turnovers, and does what Drake does, we win. Its the stupid stuff like fumbles and ints that could lose this game. Also, New England knows Stidham. Vrabel said they scouted him in the offseason for a potential roster spot. We obviously have plenty of film on him. His career TD vs Int ratio is 1:1. 8TDs and 8 Ints. I think he is still that guy.

 

[Triumph]

 

[Real fan 02]

Good to get the win. Now let’s stop the nonsense that they’re already in the Super Bowl. Denver‘s gonna have zero pressure on them next week and they’re home. Buckle up

Agreed.. but i actually think Denver has all the pressure by..being the 1 seed in the AFC.. no one expected us to be here.. Denver was a playoff team last season.. so they built off thier success from last year.. pressure is 100%on them IMO..

 

[DaBruinz]

The Pats, much like the past 2 weeks, are still the vastly superior team IMO across all three phases.

I was curious and went and looked at Denver's Special teams Stats:
Kick Coverage - 88 kicks for 5506 yards. 21 Touch backs, 2 OOB, 65 returns, 27.6 YPR.

Kick Returns - 59 returns, 25.3 YPR - 0 TDs

Punting - 75 punts, 23 Fair Catches, 9 touchbacks, 11 OOB, 3 Downed, 29 Returns for 308 yards (10.6 YPR), Net Avg 41.1, 0 TD Allowed

Punt Returns - 25 Fair Catches - 34 returns - 481 yards - 14.1 YPR - 1 TD Return - 2 fumbles

Field Goals - 28 for 32 - 1 blocked

Patriots Special teams Stats:
Kick Coverage - 96 Kicks for 5799 yards, 25 Touchbacks, 68 returns, 25.3 YPR.

Kick Returns - 57 returns, 25.5 YR - 1 TD

Punting - 51 Punts , 15 Fair Catches , 4 Touch Backs, 6 OOB, 4 Downed, 22 Returns for 265 yards (12 YPR), Net 40.6, 1 TD Allowed

Punt Returns - 20 Fair Catches - 21 returns for 361 yards - 17.3 YPR - 2 TD Returns - 2 fumbles

Field goals - 27 of 32 - 1 blocked.

Denver has a good Punt coverage unit that is allowing only 10.6 YPR.. It will be tested by Marcus Jones..
Denver's punt return unit is no slouch at 14.1 YPR, so the Pats punt coverage will be tested, also.

Denver's Kick coverage unit is 26th in the league
Pats Kick Coverage is 10th in the league.


NOTE: NFL.COM did not list the Yard Allowed Per Return on their Special Teams stats pages so I don't know where, specifically the Broncos and Pats rank..

 

[DaBruinz]

Looking back on those team here's what I gathered.. (well the Brady led teams..)

In the divisional The 2005 team was injured ravaged on defense and had good players but aging on defense and offense.. was in it until the champ Bailey INT

In The AFCCG the 2013 team had Austin collie at WR and a solid defense but Talib tapped out with injury.. in game.. that changed everything..

In The 2015 AFCCG that team what a weird game.. LB Jaime Collins forgot how to cover a TE and Gostowski misses a PAT.. this one here is the one that really eats me up the most.. we should have won..

The Pats O-line also was weird. Their top Back-up center in Wendell was on IR. As was Vollmer. The Pats had used Tre Jackson at RG for the 5 games to end the season, then changed to Josh Kline for the play-offs. David Andrews started the first 10 games at center and then was replaced by Stork. Andrews would only start 1 game the rest of the season. The game against the Titans.

Also, as I pointed out, I seem to remember that most of the O-line got sick that Thursday or Friday before the game.

EDIT: Pats were also without their top 2 RBs in Blount and Dion Lewis. They were relying on Brandon Bolden, James White and the Ghost of Steven Jackson.

 

[aluminum seats]

Agreed.. but i actually think Denver has all the pressure by..being the 1 seed in the AFC.. no one expected us to be here.. Denver was a playoff team last season.. so they built off thier success from last year.. pressure is 100%on them IMO..

I would agree but losing their quarterback loses that I think

 

[Triumph]

 

[Triumph]

 

[Uptown]

We also need to watch out for trick plays, like that goal line TD to OT Frank Crum vs Buffalo.