Poll Added I think: Has the Pats Dynasty UNDER-Achieved?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Salary Cap era where they don’t have a bunch of Hall of Fame players, meaning the final 4 teams are usually going to have similar strength.

11 AFC Championship Appearances
7 AFC Conference Titles
5 Super Bowl Wins

Seems like they are just about where they should be overall and even a little better. Another way of looking at it is if you simulated a team with a .750+ winning percentage over 20 seasons, you would probably arrive at an average of less than 5 Titles. The single game elimination format makes for a statistically improbable championship each year.

Generally the Patriots have been roughly 4:1 to 7:1 at the start of the season to win the SB for many years now. Even being “the favorite” each year means they should win a championship every 4-7 years. So I don’t feel like they’ve left anything on the table. You can squak about a the close playoff games they’ve lost, but it’s absurd to ignore all the close playoff games they’ve pulled out by the skin of their teeth.

 

[mosslost]

12 AFC Championship Appearances

11... so sorry

 

[Uncle Rico]

The margin of victory is so so small. ...

Yup. Put it this way: the largest margin of victory in any B.B./Brady Super Bowl ... came in overtime.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

If you piggyback off this research, it seems we've done just fine.



That's prior to 2014, but we can add in 5 more #1 seeds and 1 #2 seed into the Super Bowl mix over the past 3 seasons.

Since 1975, when home-field advantage became based on regular season record, there have been 42 Super Bowls x 2 teams each = 84 Super Bowl appearances, and 42 winners.

47 of those appearances were by the #1 seed, with an additional 20 by the #2 seed. So roughly 56% of #1 seeds make the Super Bowl, while 24% of #2 seeds make it.

Of our 11 byes, we have been the #1 seed 6 times, the #2 seed 5 times. That should amount to roughly 4.5 Super Bowl appearances based on traditional seeding. There were 3 other years we made the playoffs in the wildcard round, and based on the Reddit thread, that should amount to roughly 20% of appearances by other seeds, so basically it adds up to maybe half another appearance.

So let's say 5 Super Bowl appearances is what we could expect, and we have 7. Our expected appearances as a #1 seed would be 3.4, and we went 4 times. Our expected appearances as a #2 seed would be 1.2 times, and we went 3 times. Our expected appearances as other would be 0.6, and we went 0.

In terms of wins, 25 Super Bowls during those 42 years have been won by #1 seeds, which means roughly 60% of Super Bowls are won by a #1. But because there are two #1 seeds every year, a #1 seed might win 30% of the time. An additional 7 #2 seeds have won for 17% of the total Super Bowls, or 9% of #2 seeds overall.

So with 6 #1 seeds, we should expect to win 1.8 Super Bowls as the top seed, and an additional 0.45 wins as a #2 seed 5 times.

We could break it down by appearances, although that always excludes the seeds that failed to make it there. But it'd be something like 25/47 = 53% of #1 seeds who make it to the Super Bowl win, and 35% of #2 seeds who make it to the Super Bowl win.

In that scenario, if we use our hypothetical 5 Super Bowl appearances (3.4 as a #1 seed, 1.2 as a #2), that would mean 1.8 wins as a #1, 0.4 wins as a #2, or 2.2 wins. If we use our actual 7 Super Bowl appearances, that would be 2.65 wins in our 5 appearances as a #1 (we won 3), and 0.7 wins in our 2 appearances as a #2 (we won 2).

So no, we haven't underachieved. There were obviously years we could have won it all and didn't. But in a one-and-done playoff format, the best team doesn't always win, and what we see is that based on historical numbers, the team has outperformed expectations in the playoffs in terms of Super Bowl appearances and victories.

 

[mosslost]

Ray got the lead

 

[mosslost]

Ray has a solid lead

 

[IcyPatriot]

One toke over the line

 

[mosslost]

One toke over the line

its so close though

 

[mosslost]

Hey, it's a mosslost thread..

 

[mosslost]

Time Waits For No One

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

**** no. 5 SBs, 7 SBs appearance. 10 AFCCGs. How could that be underchieving?

Gosh, we are spoiled.

 

[mosslost]

Oh my God

 

[IcyPatriot]

Ray Lewis killed 2 guys and some bunnies.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

I almost took this seriously, but then checked who made the thread.

 

[RayClay]

Dumb premise, but Celtics comparison is also wrong 5 starters and no salary cap, plus their ball is round.

 

[Joker]

it could have been better...it's all bad...real bad. Everything should have come crashing down because it's just no good...always real bad. Years from now, if there's even a Patriots team around , we'll all realize how bad it was and how the sky fell and nearly killed everybody.

 

[Tunescribe]

 

[Richard Camembert]

I voted no.

Ray killed TWO guys.

Ray Lewis - Wikipedia

Also we achieved exactly where we should have, that’s the nature of achievement.

 

[Galeb]

@Galeb aqhhh HAHAHAHAH LMAO HAAAAAAAAAA what up bro?

Hi

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Perennial playoff appearances. Generally expected to win most games. Few disappointements (compared to reasonable - normal fan). Plus the OP said dynasty.

I revel in this teams success and in football it is harder to win than basketball/hockey and to some degree baseball as two elite players can take over those games. But not reall in football. It takes a whole team.