Patriots clinch a playoff spot this week with either an
a) win over Jacksonville, plus the Dolphins lose at Tennessee; or
b) win over Jacksonville, plus the Raiders lose at Indy
Patriots clinch at least the #6 seed if both of the above happen.
Buffalo wins the AFC East with wins over Atlanta and then the Jets in Week 18, regardless of any other scenarios.
The Bills also clinch a playoff spot this week with a win vs Atlanta, plus
a) the Ravens lose to the Rams; or
b) the Chargers lose to Denver plus the Raiders lose at Indy.
Tennessee has a whole lot of various clinching scenarios. A win at home over Miami gives them the division; add on a Bengals loss to the Chiefs, and the Titans clinch at least the number three seed. Kansas City clinches at least the #2 seed with a win over Cincy; add a Titans loss to Miami, and KC wraps up a bye and the #1 seed.
Indy clinches a playoff spot with a victory at home vs the Raiders. (Will there be a banner?)
They also clinch at least the #6 seed with that win, plus a loss by either the Bills, Patriots, or Ravens.
Miami is eliminated from the playoffs in four 4-way scenarios:
a) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Steelers (vs Browns), Chargers (vs Broncos), and Raiders (at Colts); or
b) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Steelers, Chargers and Patriots; or
c) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Steelers, Ravens (vs Rams) and Patriots; or
d) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Chargers, Raiders at Patriots.
Scenario (b) above has a very real chance of happening; it only requires one minor upset (Pitt>Clev).
If Miami is eliminated at some point, then one of these other teams that seem to be on life support somehow makes the playoffs.
The Ravens have a ton of elimination scenarios, but most involve six to eight specific outcomes. The least complicated is:
a) Baltimore loses to the Rams, plus
b) Chargers beat the Broncos, plus
c) Dolphins beat the Titans, plus
d) Raiders beat the Colts
The Chargers really screwed themselves losing to Houston last week. They have two (unlikely) paths to elimination this week:
a) lose to the Broncos, Ravens beat the Rams, Dolphins beat the Titans; or
b) lose to the Broncos, Ravens beat the Rams, Steelers beat the Browns, and Bengals beat the Chiefs.
The Raiders are somehow still in it, but face several elimination possibilities this week, including:
a) loss to the Colts, Chargers beat the Broncos, and Ravens beat the Rams; or
b) loss to the Colts, Chargers beat the Broncos, Dolphins beat the Titans, and Bills beat the Falcons.
Pittsburgh is mercifully eliminated with a loss to Cleveland, plus any one of these four outcomes:
a) Chargers beat Denver; or
b) Dolphins beat Tennessee; or
c) Raiders beat Indy; or
d) Baltimore beats the Rams
Cleveland is eliminated by a loss to the Steelers. They are also out even if they win with:
a) Chargers and Bengals winning; or
b) Dolphins and Bengals winning.
Denver is out with a loss at the Chargers, or if any of the following win: Pittsburgh, Miami or Baltimore.