Playoff spot clinching scenarios next week?

[Joey007]

So I’m fiddling with the playoff machine trying to figure out if there’s any way we can miss the playoffs with 10 wins after hypothetically beating Jacksonville. The only scenario I could find so far:

Dolphins win out (meaning they beat us week 18. Play Saints tomorrow night and


Raiders win out, finish 10-7. They play Colts and Chargers

Indy wins one of their next two. (Play Raiders next week, Jax week 17)

That Chargers win earlier this season was huge for us tiebreaker wise. Houston also did us a big favor today. It seems like we do well with tiebreakers over Baltimore, but that may not be 100% on the machine.

Obviously if Miami loses tomorrow night or to Tennessee this gets squashed. Raiders winning both of their last two also doesn’t sound very feasible.

 

[sb1]

NFL Playoff Scenarios does a nice job with these scenarios.

 

[VectorPrime]

If the Dolphins lose tonight against the Saints which is possible and then next week against the Titans which is frankly borderline inevitable then the Pats game against Miami in week 18 will have zero seeding implications unless the Colts or Bills choke bad.

 

[Hyped]

Saints beat Dolphins tonight, Colts beat Raiders next week, and Rams beat the Ravens should do it if we beat the Jaguars next week at home.

If that happens, we don't need the week 18 game @ Miami....unless the Falcons somehow beat the Bills in Buffalo.

 

[VectorPrime]

If week 18 is meaningless I’m honestly not sure how the Pats approach it in terms of who plays.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Im getting the same result you are. If we beat jax, the only way we can miss out is all 3 of the following occurring: dolphins win out, raiders win out, colts lose to raiders and win their final game. We’ll almost certainly clinch next week with a win over jax. Otherwise gotta win both jax and miami

 

[marwin2510]

in case you have not seen it already, this is actually fun bcs you can fill in game outcomes

2021 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Joey007]

in case you have not seen it already, this is actually fun bcs you can fill in game outcomes

2021 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Does it go really deep into tiebreakers though? My only issue with these playoff machines is that it may not be able to go deep into deeper tiebreakers. (strength of victory and things like that)

 

[Joey007]

If week 18 is meaningless I’m honestly not sure how the Pats approach it in terms of who plays.

The thing is if we do win next week, we can technically still win this division with one Buffalo loss. Buffalo losing to the Jets is a big stretch, but there’s been a lot of bizarre upsets this year. They did lose to Jacksonville remember.

Bet we play guys no matter what unless the schedule works out where they play their game first.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Miami will lose tonight.

 

[Ring 6]

Saints beat Dolphins tonight, Colts beat Raiders next week, and Rams beat the Ravens should do it if we beat the Jaguars next week at home.

If that happens, we don't need the week 18 game @ Miami....unless the Falcons somehow beat the Bills in Buffalo.

I don’t think the ravens matter. If we win this week the best baltimore could do is tie us at 10-7 and we gave the team breaker over them.

 

[Family]

When I was a kid one of my favorite things was to review the playoff scenarios in The Globe or Herald with 2-3 weeks left.

Of course the Patriots were never in it back then.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I don’t think the ravens matter. If we win this week the best baltimore could do is tie us at 10-7 and we gave the team breaker over them.

correct, ravens are not a threat if we finish 10-7. Only Miami and raiders could potentially leap us if they finish 10-7, and we’d only need one of them to lose a game

 

[jmt57]

So I’m fiddling with the playoff machine

As noted by others above, a word of caution to anyone using the espn Playoff Machine: it does NOT appear as of this time take into account tiebreakers for the 7th seed. It does however figure out tiebreakers for the other seeds.

The reason for this would be, I assume, because they just dusted off the same software application from previous years - and never updated it to reflect a 7th playoff spot.

For example: I had a scenario where the Patriots, Dolphins, Raiders, Ravens and Colts all finish 10-7. When I clicked on the 'tiebreakers' link at the top, it provides explanations for the tiebreaking rules resulting in the #2, #3, #5 and #6 seed - but makes no mention of how the #7 seed was determined over two other teams. In the comments section a few other people noted the same snafu.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

Miami will lose tonight.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots clinch a playoff spot this week with either an
a) win over Jacksonville, plus the Dolphins lose at Tennessee; or
b) win over Jacksonville, plus the Raiders lose at Indy

Patriots clinch at least the #6 seed if both of the above happen.


Buffalo wins the AFC East with wins over Atlanta and then the Jets in Week 18, regardless of any other scenarios.

The Bills also clinch a playoff spot this week with a win vs Atlanta, plus
a) the Ravens lose to the Rams; or
b) the Chargers lose to Denver plus the Raiders lose at Indy.


Tennessee has a whole lot of various clinching scenarios. A win at home over Miami gives them the division; add on a Bengals loss to the Chiefs, and the Titans clinch at least the number three seed. Kansas City clinches at least the #2 seed with a win over Cincy; add a Titans loss to Miami, and KC wraps up a bye and the #1 seed.


Indy clinches a playoff spot with a victory at home vs the Raiders. (Will there be a banner?)
They also clinch at least the #6 seed with that win, plus a loss by either the Bills, Patriots, or Ravens.


Miami is eliminated from the playoffs in four 4-way scenarios:
a) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Steelers (vs Browns), Chargers (vs Broncos), and Raiders (at Colts); or
b) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Steelers, Chargers and Patriots; or
c) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Steelers, Ravens (vs Rams) and Patriots; or
d) loss at Tennessee, plus wins by the Chargers, Raiders at Patriots.

Scenario (b) above has a very real chance of happening; it only requires one minor upset (Pitt>Clev).


If Miami is eliminated at some point, then one of these other teams that seem to be on life support somehow makes the playoffs.

The Ravens have a ton of elimination scenarios, but most involve six to eight specific outcomes. The least complicated is:
a) Baltimore loses to the Rams, plus
b) Chargers beat the Broncos, plus
c) Dolphins beat the Titans, plus
d) Raiders beat the Colts


The Chargers really screwed themselves losing to Houston last week. They have two (unlikely) paths to elimination this week:
a) lose to the Broncos, Ravens beat the Rams, Dolphins beat the Titans; or
b) lose to the Broncos, Ravens beat the Rams, Steelers beat the Browns, and Bengals beat the Chiefs.


The Raiders are somehow still in it, but face several elimination possibilities this week, including:
a) loss to the Colts, Chargers beat the Broncos, and Ravens beat the Rams; or
b) loss to the Colts, Chargers beat the Broncos, Dolphins beat the Titans, and Bills beat the Falcons.


Pittsburgh is mercifully eliminated with a loss to Cleveland, plus any one of these four outcomes:
a) Chargers beat Denver; or
b) Dolphins beat Tennessee; or
c) Raiders beat Indy; or
d) Baltimore beats the Rams


Cleveland is eliminated by a loss to the Steelers. They are also out even if they win with:
a) Chargers and Bengals winning; or
b) Dolphins and Bengals winning.


Denver is out with a loss at the Chargers, or if any of the following win: Pittsburgh, Miami or Baltimore.

 

[Joey007]

Wentz news does make that scenario I mentioned above breathe a little more life. Miami does also have to beat Tennessee though. Plus Raiders have to beat the Chargers the next week as well.