Pats to win out?

[Rob0729]

I understand your "conditional probability" explanation but I do not see the next game or the one after that or the one after that as dependent on the preceding one. If the next game there's an 80% chance of the Pas winning ,then THAT is where it starts and ends. The next game is a totally different island universe unto itself. One can deem an 80% chance of winning, 70, 60, 95, 100% THAT game given an entirely different set of variables that apply to THAT specific game. For example,if, as you put forth, that the 4th game is a 41% probability without any question, then you are assuming that the loss of a starting QB, WR's, D linemen or corners play no part in that specific probability..doesn't pass the "make sense" test.

Yeah, I think there is a statistical formula to determine the odds of winning all four games, but I think you need to use a weighed average and standard deviation to determine it. It isn't as simple as the flipping coin argument because we are not talking about doing the same exact event multiple times. It is four unique events with different variables.

It has been a long time since I took stats, but I don't think it is a simple conditional probability formula to figure it out.

 

[captain stone]

FTFY.

The evidence says otherwise.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I understand your "conditional probability" explanation but I do not see the next game or the one after that or the one after that as dependent on the preceding one. If the next game there's an 80% chance of the Pats winning ,then THAT is where it starts and ends. The next game is a totally different island universe unto itself. One can deem an 80% chance of winning, 70, 60, 95, 100% THAT game given an entirely different set of variables that apply to THAT specific game. For example,if, as you put forth, that the 4th game is a 41% probability without any question, then you are assuming that the loss of a starting QB, WR's, D linemen or corners play no part in that specific probability..doesn't pass the "make sense" test.

The games themselves aren't dependent on each other, when you say "what are the chances that they win the next two games", what you're actually saying is "what is the chance that they win the second game given that they already won the first". So even as completely independent events, the answer that you're looking for is still conditional in nature, because winning the second game doesn't 'count' towards winning out unless the condition of having already won the first game has been met.

As for the rest, it's a valid point that would definitely have to be addressed if we were actually trying to model, in detail, the likelihood of winning out from here. If you really wanted to get to a precise percentage of the Pats' likelihood of winning out, you would have to assign a percentage for each game, based on the most specific conditions possible, and even then your model would be perpetually one bad hit away from being rendered useless.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Here are some more odds:

If the Pats don't win every single one of their last 4 remaining games, the odds of their getting to the SB
is 0.0%.

 

[Joker]

you would have to assign a percentage for each game, based on the most specific conditions possible, and even then your model would be perpetually one bad hit away from being rendered useless.

that is as close to what I was TRYING to say as possible. Thanks. I got an A in Calculus at BU in 69. Today I have a struggle deciphering the times table. I took a couple of stats courses years later at URI and even though I aced the courses I'll be damned if I can remember any of it. Your previous posts made some dormant brain cells stir to action and ideate what years of banging my head around dealing with life has taught me.....when confronted with brain hurting upper level mind processes, common sense is always the best approach.

 

[Rob0729]

But anyway, what is lost in all this stats argument. If the Pats have a 50% chance of winning out (based on a 90% chance of winning each of the next four games), the Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and all the other teams that lay claim to a bye or HFA all have similar odds or worse odds.

 

[ATippett56]

One game at a time ......

Matchups
Injuries
Alarm Clocks or lack thereof
Et cetera

 

[supafly]

One game at a time ......

Matchups
Injuries
Alarm Clocks or lack thereof
Et cetera

I definitely agree with your approach and as a fan, don't take any game for granted.

As far as alarm clocks go---I'm starting to think that there's got to be more to it than we've heard. I still think that Gray sees a lot more action on Sunday, but then again, I said that last week too.

 

[Joker]

as far as alarm clocks go...YOU would make a perfect ****oo clock...

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

(A) Every game is now December football (weather, jobs/positions at stake, desperation)
(B) One away game against a team, SD, in the thick of the playoff chase with a 5-1 record at home.
(C) Two division games against teams that viscerally despise the Patriots' success and who will be desperately fighting for their playoff birth.
(D) An away division game against a team and coach that will see the Patriots game as their lone saving grace moment of an otherwise epic disaster season. The Jets winning this one is literally their last time under Rexy to make a meaningful and positive splash. Expect every scintilla of effort they have to throw at us.

None of these games have the slim margin of error that the GB game had, however, not even the Jets game can be looked at as 'we can play poorly but still will safely come away with a win'. All these teams are going to be playing with abandon. IMHO the Patriots' remaining four games left require an approach to each one with a big hunger, cip on their shoulder, and with a solid game plan in place. There is no room to see any game as easily winnable.

If they play hungry and execute a good game plan they, IMHO, already have #1 seed locked up. If they don't play that way, given the variables, the picture is muddled (plus they aren't ready for Playoff Football yet)......

 

[ATippett56]

(D) An away division game against a team and coach that will see the Patriots game as their lone saving grace moment of an otherwise epic disaster season. The Jets winning this one is literally their last time under Rexy to make a meaningful and positive splash. Expect every scintilla of effort they have to throw at us.

Rex Ryan's only saving grace ...... seppuku.



3:40

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I definitely agree with your approach and as a fan, don't take any game for granted.

As far as alarm clocks go---I'm starting to think that there's got to be more to it than we've heard. I still think that Gray sees a lot more action on Sunday, but then again, I said that last week too.

I think you're right, I think Gray sees more carries (how many I don't know -- maybe only a few).
Unless the lone carry given Gray was due to Blount and Bolden being occupied with a stinger or something else that kept them out for that specific play, why give Gray a single carry in such a huge game (one with the Patriots getting precious few offensive snaps and even less rushing plays)? IMHO it is a signal to Gray himself that he's coming out of the doghouse. And if he's out of the doghouse, considering how high he had previously climbed the BB ladder before the alarm clock thing, he's back in the mix (though with Blount now here he's obviously not in the same position as the Colt game).

 

[supafly]

as far as alarm clocks go...YOU would make a perfect ****oo clock...

Ha!

Well played, well played.