Pats to win out?

[English Patriot]

What's everyone thinking about closing out the season? I'm expecting them to absolutely destroy the Chargers because of how they will come out following the close loss at Lambeau. I can see the secondary having a field day and limiting Rivers to a single TD at the most. Brady will come out throwing with a purpose and i think Blount is going to get the big nod and we'll see less of a committee when it comes to running the ball.

The next 3 after SD are all AFC East with 2 at home and the other at the Jets. Now either they hit it running and just steam roll them to make a statement or all 3 will be close affairs. That's really how i see it going down.

Personally i see them winning out because number 1 seed means more than ever, but apart from blowing out SD, i see 3 close games against the division all being decided in the 4th Q and us Pats fans biting our nails as usual.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think there's about a 50/50 chance that the Pats win out. I also expect them to crush the chargers, but figure there's a pretty good chance they'll drop one of the three division games that follow.

 

[ausbacker]

San Diego is 50/50. After that they close out with 3 divisional games (2 home, 1 away).

The Patriots should win at least 3 of those 4 however, divisional games have a way of throwing up interesting storylines, especially when they involve the pesky Jets away. This game could be a blowout or a close loss.

I'm not overreacting to the loss against Green Bay. Some of the plays Rodgers made were phenomenal in spite of excellent coverage by the Patriots.

 

[jmt57]

Back to back road games are tough for any team, as is playing three time zones away from home.

There is also the possibility of a bit of a letdown. The Patriots are not only coming off a huge game, they are coming off four consecutive games against division leaders.

This week's game at San Diego is by no means an easy, automatic win.

 

[kennyb]

I think it is a 100% definite possibility. Not a sure think but perhaps some chance.

 

[Gronkowski123]

i certainly hope so. we also need denver to drop a game in case we lose.

 

[Rob0729]

I think there's about a 50/50 chance that the Pats win out. I also expect them to crush the chargers, but figure there's a pretty good chance they'll drop one of the three division games that follow.

When did the Pats move to the AFC North or NFC West? The AFC East sucks again after teasing us that it might be good,

 

[Rob0729]

San Diego is 50/50. After that they close out with 3 divisional games (2 home, 1 away).

The Patriots should win at least 3 of those 4 however, divisional games have a way of throwing up interesting storylines, especially when they involve the pesky Jets away. This game could be a blowout or a close loss.

I'm not overreacting to the loss against Green Bay. Some of the plays Rodgers made were phenomenal in spite of excellent coverage by the Patriots.

Huh?!? Really 50/50 in San Diego? The Pats are a far better team. They could lose, but odds are good they win it. It certainly isn't a coin flip game. I expect the Pats to win by at least two scores.

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

I give the patriots a pass for dropping one in green bay. You lost to arguably a team just as good as you are on their turf. However, the patriots have no teams left on their schedule that I feel like they should lose to. If they lose another one I will be very disappointed and it could cost us home field. Losing in green bay meant absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things.... but we can't lose again.

 

[ausbacker]

Huh?!? Really 50/50 in San Diego? The Pats are a far better team. They could lose, but odds are good they win it. It certainly isn't a coin flip game. I expect the Pats to win by at least two scores.

It's a coin flip game @Rob0729. The Pats are the better team but the Chargers are capable of excellent football. I think the Patriots should win but that doesn't mean I should discount the capabilities of the Chargers who coincidentally, are one game out of first in the AFC West.

 

[BradyFTW!]

When did the Pats move to the AFC North or NFC West? The AFC East sucks again after teasing us that it might be good,

The Jets played us close in Foxboro earlier this year and last year, and beat us in New York last year. They always play us closer than their record suggests they should. Miami already beat us once this year, and though I'm confident that they won't again, it wouldn't be shocking. The Bills have the best defensive line in the NFL, and while game is probably the surest thing remaining of the schedule, they still have to play the game, and the Bills definitely don't suck.

None of these games are the absolute slam-dunk, "no chance in hell we lose" scenarios that you seem to think they are. I already said I think it's it's 50/50 that the Pats win the next four games, which means I think they're heavy favorites to win every one of them. If that's not optimistic enough for you, then I have to question where your perspective has gone. A lifetime of watching football says pretty unambiguously that division games tend to be tough.

 

[Rob0729]

It's a coin flip game @Rob0729. The Pats are the better team but the Chargers are capable of excellent football. I think the Patriots should win but that doesn't mean I should discount the capabilities of the Chargers who coincidentally, are one game out of first in the AFC West.

Nah! It isn't a coin flip game at all. The Pats should win this game. The Pats are a TD favorite. Which means they are a 10 point favorite on a neutral field. If the Pats lose this one, it will be considered a huge upset.

The Chargers have been beating teams with losing records. The only teams they have beaten with winning records are the Seahawks (who they beat in the second week of the season when the Seahawks seemed to have a Super Bowl hangover) and the Ravens where the Ravens imploded in the fourth quarter.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

yes..pats to win out..not to sound ****y...but 2 of 3 at home after SD game and they should beat SD

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

The Jets played us close in Foxboro earlier this year and last year, and beat us in New York last year. They always play us closer than their record suggests they should. Miami already beat us once this year, and though I'm confident that they won't again, it wouldn't be shocking. The Bills have the best defensive line in the NFL, and while game is probably the surest thing remaining of the schedule, they still have to play the game, and the Bills definitely don't suck.

Jets always play us tough FIRST game of the year...2nd meeting is always much more lopsided. MIA won't be beating us again and the Bills have Orton aka 2 INTs and a suspect secondary

 

[BradyFTW!]

Jets always play us tough FIRST game of the year...2nd meeting is always much more lopsided. MIA won't be beating us again and the Bills have Orton aka 2 INTs and a suspect secondary

Last year they beat us in the second game.

 

[Rob0729]

The Jets played us close in Foxboro earlier this year and last year, and beat us in New York last year. They always play us closer than their record suggests they should. Miami already beat us once this year, and though I'm confident that they won't again, it wouldn't be shocking. The Bills have the best defensive line in the NFL,

None of these games are the absolute slam-dunk, "no chance in hell we lose" scenarios that you seem to think they are. If "I already said it's 50/50 that the Pats win the next four games - if that's not optimistic enough for you, then I have to question where your perspective has gone. A lifetime of watching football says pretty unambiguously that division games tend to be tough.

The Pats should absolutely win out. Not a guarantees, but they are significantly better than every team on their schedule and they have beaten 3-4 teams significantly better than the rest of the teams on the schedule. They have just finished the toughest part of their schedule and were 4-1 against teams with records as good or better than every team left on their schedule. They beat Denver, Cincy, Detriot, and Indy by 20 points or more each.

The Pats are a 7 point favorite this weekend and likely will be a double digit favorite in the last three games. By definition, the fact the Pats will be heavy favorites in every game left on their schedule makes winning out a far greater chance than 50/50.

BTW, the Jets were far better last year and won on a fluke penalty that has never been called before that game or since.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Last year they beat us in the second game.

Don't think i know that?

 

[ausbacker]

Nah! It isn't a coin flip game at all. The Pats should win this game. The Pats are a TD favorite. Which means they are a 10 point favorite on a neutral field. If the Pats lose this one, it will be considered a huge upset.

The Chargers have been beating teams with losing records. The only teams they have beaten with winning records are the Seahawks (who they beat in the second week of the season when the Seahawks seemed to have a Super Bowl hangover) and the Ravens where the Ravens imploded in the fourth quarter.

You're welcome to that opinion and I certainly hope you're right. I believe the Chargers should be respected because their best football is right up there with the best in the NFL.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The Pats should absolutely win out. Not a guarantees, but they are significantly better than every team on their schedule and they have beaten 3-4 teams significantly better than the rest of the teams on the schedule. They have just finished the toughest part of their schedule and were 4-1 against teams with records as good or better than every team left on their schedule. They beat Denver, Cincy, Detriot, and Indy by 20 points or more each.

The Pats are a 7 point favorite this weekend and likely will be a double digit favorite in the last three games. By definition, the fact the Pats will be heavy favorites in every game left on their schedule makes winning out a far greater chance than 50/50.

Where are you getting that they're a 7 point favorite this weekend? It's 3.5 everywhere I've seen. As for the rest, I think that's just a fundamental misunderstanding of how often the team that's supposed to win does. Historically, 7-1o point underdogs win outright about a quarter of the time (364 out of 1,383 in 2011, which was the most recent data I could find off hand). So even if the Pats are favored by 7-10 points in each of their remaining games, their expected record based on that spread is still 'just' 3-1.

I'd be willing to bet that you felt the same way going into the last four games last year, since the Pats were favored (usually significantly) in all four games. But they dropped the Dolphins game, and were an onside kick away from dropping the Browns game as well. It happens.

Bottom line: to have a >50/50 shot at going 4-0 for the rest of the season, you would have to believe that they have about a 90% change of winning each game, more or less. And that's just not the reality of the NFL. The Broncos were favored to win every game they played this season, and somehow they've lost three games. In the first two games they lost, the Pats were 3 (vs. KC) and 4.5 (vs. Miami) point favorites. Even significant favorites rarely have a >80% win expectancy going into the game.

 

[Rob0729]

You're welcome to that opinion and I certainly hope you're right. I believe the Chargers should be respected because their best football is right up there with the best in the NFL.

They should be respected, but the Pats should win that game. The Chargers could pull off the upset, but this isn't the case of two evenly matched teams going up with each other. The Pats are significantly better than the Chargers and should beat them and handily. It is not a coin flip game. If the Pats and Chargers play each other ten times, the Pats win at least 7-8 times. It is the one or two to three times that makes the Chargers dangerous enough.

I say it is a 20/80 chance the Pats lose the game Sunday and I may be generous to the Chargers. It could be 10/90. 50/50 means if they played ten times that the Chargers would win five times and I don't see that happening.