Pats need to win out probably to get HFA

[mosslost]

..as long as the title game isn't in denver!!

it will be tough trying to match scores with the raiders.

yes. I think that could be true in New England as well. Well, thankfully they will only get 17.9 per gamre and we win! AFCCG pats 18 Oak 17.9

 

[long distance]

Here's a quote from Hill's article on the same subject:

The next tiebreaker is “common games” and the two teams share the Bills, Broncos, Ravens, and Texans on the schedule. The Patriots are facing the Ravens and Broncos over the next two weeks, while the Raiders have their season finale on the road against the Broncos. Unfortunately for New England, the Patriots are 2-1 in these common games, while the Raiders sit at 4-0, giving Oakland the tiebreaker.
Since the Patriots have no chance at catching the Raiders in the next tiebreaker “strength of victory”, where the Raiders have a sizeable 0.467 to 0.370 edge, the only hope for the Patriots is that the Raiders finish the season with a worse overall record.

AFC Playoff Picture: Patriots can lose next week and still move up to the #1 seed
__

In the context of “rooting schedule“ its better for NE to have a HFA tiebreaker with KC.
In order for KC to win their division it is enough for them to be even on overall record with OAK (since they will have better division record in that case).

If they all end on 13-3 or 12-4 NE has HFA. (I think Denver is realistically out of contention at this numbers)

That means a win of KC over OAK on Thursday night could be in Pats interest if Pats can go 3-1.

But like always: Be careful what you wish for.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Kansas City can do us a HUGE favor. If they win out, which is a real possibility since they play oakland (home), titans (home), chargers, and broncos (home), they get the 1 or 2 seed. That gives the pats some breathing room as they can lose 1 more game the rest of the way (i.e., to baltimore or denver) and still clinch HFA. Oakland would have to go on the road as the 5th seed. However, if the pats lose to BOTH baltimore and denver it's over for HFA - 2 seed at best, and the AFCCG will be in KC (puke).

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I think this hits all the clinching scenarios for NE:

• Any combination of NE wins and MIA losses that sums to 2 along with any NE win or any BUF loss clinches NE the AFCE.
• Any 2 NE wins also clinches a first-round bye.
• Any NE win coupled with any BAL loss and any MIA loss clinches NE the AFCE and a first-round bye.

 

[BobDigital]

The issue with being seed #2 is even if the Pats don't go to Denver KC/Oak both have very good HFAs. It will be tough to play at either.

 

[BobDigital]

I will throw this out there. Lets assume the Pats lose and Raiders win this week. That makes it near impossible to catch them as the Raiders won their most likely loss.

If that is the case the Pats might have up to 2 games where they can pack it in and rest guys while still getting the #2 seed. Would that be all that bad?

 

[Haterproof]

If KC wins on Thursday night they would've swept the season series with Oakland which would then put the Raiders in a very tough spot going forward

 

[titletownpats]

I think this hits all the clinching scenarios for NE:

• Any combination of NE wins and MIA losses that sums to 2 along with any NE win or any BUF loss clinches NE the AFCE.
• Any 2 NE wins also clinches a first-round bye.
• Any NE win coupled with any BAL loss and any MIA loss clinches NE the AFCE and a first-round bye.

I was under the impression that the Pats can clinch a bye this weekend if Miami loses to Arizona and they beat the Ravens. Do you know if that is 100% true? I just read a retweet from Miguel that said the Steelers would also have to lose in that situation to clinch a bye this weekend. Would be so pumped to attend another divisional round game at the blade. It has been like another yearly holiday for my family.

 

[RayClay]

Wish I had the ability to predict the future...

 

[MainePatsFan26]

The good news is the 2 Seed and the first round bye are all but clinched now. However, Oakland will have the tie breaker against us. Their schedule is tough, they look good enough to me to finish 3 and 1 the rest of the way, which means we need to go 4 and 0. (I "think")

Not too mention that we could still end up tied with KC if we drop one, and I think they get the tie breaker too the last time I checked. (But I think they should drop at least one )

At the same time, let us feel good about Denver not being a likely #1 seed. Oakland may be the real deal, but they still look quite beatable and inconsistent as a #1. If we are #2 at 12-4 or 13-3, we would likely avoid Denver until -- fingers crossed -- the championship game according to my playoff machine predictions which place Denver at #6. Kansas City is the biggest threat in that scenario, though any team coming to play in Foxboro in the divisional round will have the deck stacked against them.

Honestly, if the #1 looks out of reach I'd consider resting people in the Miami game. Unless Miami goes 3-0 heading into that game, we can win the division and #2 resting everyone. However, if we and Miami end at 11-5, they win the division. One great scenario is us going 12-3, resting everyone against a 10-5 Miami team, and getting the #2 while Miami goes 11-5 and knocks Denver or Oakland out of wild card weekend.

 

[sambam94]

#2 seed will most likely play either Pitt/Ravens. I would rather the Pats avoid either one of those.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

As long as Denver doesn't get the #1 Seed, I am happy. We have a much better chance winning at Arrowhead or the Coliseum than at Mile-High.

That said, I'm really looking forward to our remaining December games. Let's see how well we finish. In particular, let's see if we can punch the Ravens in the mouth on MNF. That's the AFC Team I'm most concerned about.

 

[RobertWeathers]

As long as Denver doesn't get the #1 Seed, I am happy. We have a much better chance winning at Arrowhead or the Coliseum than at Mile-High.

I'm not so sure about that.

That said, I'm really looking forward to our remaining December games. Let's see how well we finish. In particular, let's see if we can punch the Ravens in the mouth on MNF. That's the AFC Team I'm most concerned about.

We can all crap on Suggs, Flacco, Harbaugh, etc but playing that team is always a complete pain in the ass.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

As long as Denver doesn't get the #1 Seed, I am happy. We have a much better chance winning at Arrowhead or the Coliseum than at Mile-High.

That said, I'm really looking forward to our remaining December games. Let's see how well we finish. In particular, let's see if we can punch the Ravens in the mouth on MNF. That's the AFC Team I'm most concerned about.

Denver has zero shot at getting the 1 seed. If the pats end up as the 2 seed, they will likely go to the AFCCG in Oakland or KC - those are the only two venues other than gillette for which I see an AFCCG being played.

Gillette> oakland> kansas city

 

[Tony2046]

Todays games certainly didn't help Pats in the Home Field Hunt.
Lots of big battles and looks like 3-1 will be needed for the Pats.

NE: ...... vs BAL .. @DEN .. vs NYJ .. @ MIA
OAK: .... @KC .... @SD ..... vs IND .. @DEN
KC: ..... vs OAK .. vs TEN .. vs DEN .. @SD
DEN: ... @TEN .. vs NE .... @KC ..... vs OAK

That's a tough schedule for all four teams.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Todays games certainly didn't help Pats in the Home Field Hunt.
Lots of big battles and looks like 3-1 will be needed for the Pats.

NE: ...... vs BAL .. @DEN .. vs NYJ .. @ MIA
OAK: .... @KC .... @SD ..... vs IND .. @DEN
KC: ..... vs OAK .. vs TEN .. vs DEN .. @SD
DEN: ... @TEN .. vs NE .... @KC ..... vs OAK

I see the following:

NE: 4-0

OAK: 3-1 (loss against KC)

KC: 4-0

DEN: 1-3 (loss against NE, KC, Oak). Without a doubt, Denver has the toughest remaining schedule of all these teams.

KC wins the AFCW, which means NE takes the 1 seed, Oakland gets the 5 seed, and Denver misses the playoffs altogether.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

People suggesting that arrowhead wouldn't worry them must have forgotten that it's literally the loudest stadium in the nfl and an incredibly hostile environment to play in.

The offense would have to operate in a deafening stadium against a defense that although havent played at a world beater level, have enough playmakers to make that a very dangerous situation

We need that #1 seed locked up, I don't want to risk any chance of another road AGCCG like last year where the HFA was definitely the difference in that game (along with Ghost's first missed XP of his career

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

That's a tough schedule for all four teams.

Looking at the remaining games, I think Denver is going to miss the playoffs, Oakland gets the WC, and KC wins the division.

Despite Denver's D, I don't see them overcoming the fact that they can't really run the ball and now their QB is hurt.

Baltimore looks like our toughest regular season game left. If we win next Monday, we're in fantastic shape going forward.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

That's a tough schedule for all four teams.

Then again, if we're facing Paxton Lynch in Denver and and Bryce Petty is starting for NYJ, I am pretty confident we can pencil those in as wins.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Looking at the remaining games, I think Denver is going to miss the playoffs, Oakland gets the WC, and KC wins the division.

Despite Denver's D, I don't see them overcoming the fact that they can't really run the ball and now their QB is hurt.

Baltimore looks like our toughest regular season game left. If we win next Monday, we're in fantastic shape going forward.

I think if Denver wins even one game against NE, Oak, or KC, they will be in the playoffs. But they would then have to travel to Pittsburgh or Baltimore in the wild card.