Pats @ Eagles all-22 rewatch thread

[BaconGrundleCandy]

lol

Lazar is making too many meta-assumptions.

Look, we can see issues that we think are problems. But we can't see what the QB sees, when he sees it. And we can't know what the QB is supposed to be seeing, because we can't know the play. It's relatively easy to read receivers and running backs. It's more difficult to read TEs and OLs.

For example, Brady throws out to White down by the goal line. Most people call that a bad throw by Brady. But how many people know that we've seen that pass before, and that White has, in the past, made a much less lazy route out of it, with a sharper break to the sideline? Instead of just drifting towards coverage, White has used a harder cut in order to gain more separation and, at the same time, making himself an easier target to hit. Does that mean that White got it wrong and Brady's throw was fine? No, but it means that such might have been the case.

For example, Brady throws low to Sanu, and Sanu has to reach way down to catch the ball, resulting in him going to the ground after the catch. We hear/see people calling it a bad throw by Brady. But how many people (besides Romo) saw that leaving that pass up would have resulted in Sanu getting lit up by a defender? Does that mean that the throw was a great one? No, but it means that the throw wasn't as bad as many people initially thought.

And, lastly, I'll just note another poster, @pencilneckgeek, who seems to be saying much the same thing,

Pats @ Eagles all-22 rewatch thread

though he may be expressing it (for explanation purposes) a bit differently than I.

So, even while I think it's great that more people are doing these breakdowns, I also think we have to use their analysis as a jump point rather than an authoritative evaluation.

1)Definitely have to be careful who you watch/believe.

This is embarrassing considering Kelly's a vet. A trolling vet but a vet nonetheless. You'd think he doesn't want anymore bad press, no pun intended. Obviously not an RPO lol
2)Lol you got a disagree for that post.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The rule on man vs. zone is very clear in the playbook. vs. zone, you sit, vs. man you break in or out "off defender" i.e., leverage away from him. You just don't let him catch up with you which was what Burkhead did. I think Burkhead was running snow option with the blitz pickup or chip (or at least that's what it was called in the 2004 playbook).

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I'm confused what exactly is the question?

 

[luuked]

The rule on man vs. zone is very clear in the playbook. vs. zone, you sit, vs. man you break in or out "off defender" i.e., leverage away from him. You just don't let him catch up with you which was what Burkhead did. I think Burkhead was running snow option with the blitz pickup or chip (or at least that's what it was called in the 2004 playbook).

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First of all thanks for taking the time to find the play in the playbook. Awesome stuff.

I just dont understand how anyone who watched the clip can say Burkhead sat on the route. He chipped the DE, then cut inside and kept moving the entire time.

If Brady is not contacted right as he throws the ball its an easy completion and a lot of open space for Burkhead.

 

[Danger Zone]

For what he usually does Chatham pretty much rips Brady apart in his post mortem of the Eagles game. His lede is literally "this has been a very bad game by the QB". And he makes a point that his opinion is already adjusted for the OL play.

Some pretty good deconstruction of how skittish and inaccurate Brady has been on short throws and especially screens but also not reading defenses right presnap and then being surprised by rushers in the backfield or not switching out of a bad play.

His example of Brady not switching up the play is especially irritating as apparently they ran a play to a side where even presnap they didn't have the numbers (3 vs. 4).

Another good listen. Wish that the Athletic would just give him an intern to make cut-ups and turn this into a video podcast like he had late in 2015 on Youtube. Given his unique perspective to have been part of successful BB teams he truly is among the best analysts.

It is about an hour but definitely worth the time.

Im sorry, but Im a big believer in that smart people don't just suddenly get stupid.

If Brady isn't changing up the play, there's probably a reason for it. Maybe he doesn't trust a couple of his players. Maybe somebody is hurt and can't block to the right. Maybe they really dont want to run at somebody on the defense.

Basically, I believe that there is something we don't know out of a myriad of possible unknowns versus the idea that Brady suddenly got stupid and can't read the defense the same way Chatham can.

 

[luuked]

Im sorry, but Im a big believer in that smart people don't just suddenly get stupid.

What do you mean suddenly ?

Brady -- like everyone else -- has had his share of absolute stupid mistakes especially when he feels uncomfortable in the pocket and feels pressure. He is not some kind of infallible savant, what makes him great is that he makes those mistakes at a far lower rate than most other QBs.

If Brady isn't changing up the play, there's probably a reason for it.

There is no reason to run towards a side where you are one man short. He missed something. It happens. It is not the first time he didn't change or audible out of a bad play and it won't be the last time. Mistakes happen. The same way he for whatever reason didn't throw the hot route to Edelman who read it correctly and sat in the above mention sack.

The point here is not to make fun of Brady but point out that the issues on offense are multi-faceted.

Basically, I believe that there is something we don't know out of a myriad of possible unknowns versus the idea that Brady suddenly got stupid and can't read the defense the same way Chatham can.

Of course Brady can read defenses better than any of the X/O guys out there.

But there is a difference between an analyst looking at things from the angles of the A22 copy while sitting comfortably in his chair and being on the field with limited view and having NFL level pass rushers coming your way to crush you.

That's why Romo looks so amazing as a commentator even though he made his share of idiotic decisions as a QB.

 

[TomPatriot]

I don’t think it’s that he got stupid. I think it’s that he’s uncomfortable and that’s making him make bad plays.

Let’s go back to the Buffalo game. Micah Hyde picks Brady and after the game Bill runs across the field to ask Micah about the play and Micah says “ he was staring him down” meaning Brady telegraphed his throw to the receiver. Having watched Brady for 20 years that was pretty stunning. What does it mean? He was uncomfortable that whole game against the Bills D so he makes unusual mistakes.

 

[PP2]

I'm confused what exactly is the question?

The argument was whether Burkhead was going to sit or continue on his route after the break. It appeared that Burkhead was slowing down as if he was going to sit. The coverage, however, was man to man, so he should have never slowed but continued to maintain separation.

Brady threw the ball to where he thought Burkhead would be, if Burkhead had continued full speed.

 

[PP2]

I don’t think it’s that he got stupid. I think it’s that he’s uncomfortable and that’s making him make bad plays.

Let’s go back to the Buffalo game. Micah Hyde picks Brady and after the game Bill runs across the field to ask Micah about the play and Micah says “ he was staring him down” meaning Brady telegraphed his throw to the receiver. Having watched Brady for 20 years that was pretty stunning. What does it mean? He was uncomfortable that whole game against the Bills D so he makes unusual mistakes.

I would venture to say that the discomfort is with his own offense and not being able to trust them to be where he wants them to be.

The downside to playing for Brady is that he is very anal about how he runs the offense, and if you are not exactly where he wants you to be, you're going to lose his trust, and he's going to throw a hissy fit which throws him off his game.

But on the other hand, when the offense is in absolute sync, like it was in early '15 before Edelman went out, it is absolutely unstoppable.

The loss of Gronk cannot be underestimated- he brought so much to the offense, from blocking to route running, to distorting coverage, even when he wasn't anywhere near 100%. He was that good.

 

[Kontradiction]

I would venture to say that the discomfort is with his own offense and not being able to trust them to be where he wants them to be.

The downside to playing for Brady is that he is very anal about how he runs the offense, and if you are not exactly where he wants you to be, you're going to lose his trust, and he's going to throw a hissy fit which throws him off his game.

But on the other hand, when the offense is in absolute sync, like it was in early '15 before Edelman went out, it is absolutely unstoppable.

The loss of Gronk cannot be underestimated- he brought so much to the offense, from blocking to route running, to distorting coverage, even when he wasn't anywhere near 100%. He was that good.

Brady is playing defenses that couldn’t care less about the run right now and are sitting in coverage as if the Patriots are in the red zone. That’s been a consistent theme since roughly halftime of the first Jets game earlier this year. It’s not that he doesn’t trust them, it’s that defenses have no reason whatsoever to dedicate more than one safety deep, and that’s usually to strangle off vertical routes that Dorsett can run. Until that changes, whether that’s with Harry or Edelman rounding into health or the hypothetical addition of Brown, those windows will continue to be tighter than the Virgin Mary’s muff. They had the same problem last year. The difference was they still had Develin, Gronk, and boasted the best OL in the NFL, so they morphed into a power running offense and the play action became absolutely lethal. Wynn coming back will help, but the team still badly misses Gronk and Develin.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don’t think it’s that he got stupid. I think it’s that he’s uncomfortable and that’s making him make bad plays.

Let’s go back to the Buffalo game. Micah Hyde picks Brady and after the game Bill runs across the field to ask Micah about the play and Micah says “ he was staring him down” meaning Brady telegraphed his throw to the receiver. Having watched Brady for 20 years that was pretty stunning. What does it mean? He was uncomfortable that whole game against the Bills D so he makes unusual mistakes.

If we're going back to that play, can we not forget that the reason Hyde was able to be on the ball was because Meyers ran a bad route? Can we acknowledge that "he was staring him down" would never have happened if Meyers had done his freakin' job?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The argument was whether Burkhead was going to sit or continue on his route after the break. It appeared that Burkhead was slowing down as if he was going to sit. The coverage, however, was man to man, so he should have never slowed but continued to maintain separation.

Brady threw the ball to where he thought Burkhead would be, if Burkhead had continued full speed.

Yea I don't want to get into semantics but he obviously isn't going full speed. I wonder if he was trying to make it easier on 12? That's not a "tough" pass but becomes increasingly harder the further 34 runs away from 12. Kinda cross body, over w the los.

Brady was reading the levels, looks like eyes are on Meyers & then comes back to 34.