Patriots UDFA signings

[50-yard-line]

Which should tell you that's just numerological superstition caused by bad luck with 2nd rounders and good luck with UDFA's. There is no credible mechanism to cause BB to be bad picking 2nd round DB's yet good with UDFA DB's. Few folks are intuitively good with statistical probability and are too quick to see patterns in noise. Anyway, most of your fellow believers have moved on from "BB is bad at picking 2nd round DB's" to "BB is bad at picking 2nd round CB's" -- all because of Dugger's success.

It's pretty simple: BB was running with a veteran team. Few rookies would find a place on it. He typically used the late-1st/2nd for boom/bust guys.
Injury concerns (Easley/Ras-I/Gronk) and guys he knew wouldn't last to UDFA, but he thought he saw something there.

 

[Kasmir]

It's pretty simple: BB was running with a veteran team. Few rookies would find a place on it. He typically used the late-1st/2nd for boom/bust guys.
Injury concerns (Easley/Ras-I/Gronk) and guys he knew wouldn't last to UDFA, but he thought he saw something there.

Sure, but I'm focusing on the 2nd Round DB / UDFA paradox. Saying that "boom/bust" 2nd round DB guys haven't worked out is just -- bad luck. And UDFA's working out so well has a large component of good luck no matter how cleverly they were chosen.

 

[DaBruinz]

True, but with Belichick’s history of 2nd round DB busts, we have done better picking DB’s as free agents than in the 2nd round.

There you go again. Trying to derail a thread with your hatred of Belichick.

 

[50-yard-line]

Sure, but I'm focusing on the 2nd Round DB / UDFA paradox. Saying that "boom/bust" 2nd round DB guys haven't worked out is just -- bad luck. And UDFA's working out so well has a large component of good luck no matter how cleverly they were chosen.

The entire draft has a large component of luck.

 

[moosekill]

The entire draft has a large component of luck.

Yes and regardless of people here would lead you to belive, it is a very very small sample size. So it is really really hard to draw any correlation from it.

If you flip a coin 3 times and get 3 heads you could decide the odds are 100% that every time you flip a coin you will get a head. Statistics doesn't work that way

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Which should tell you that's just numerological superstition caused by bad luck with 2nd rounders and good luck with UDFA's. There is no credible mechanism to cause BB to be bad picking 2nd round DB's yet good with UDFA DB's. Few folks are intuitively good with statistical probability and are too quick to see patterns in noise. Anyway, most of your fellow believers have moved on from "BB is bad at picking 2nd round DB's" to "BB is bad at picking 2nd round CB's" -- all because of Dugger's success.

Why don’t you look at the prior 8 or 9 second round DB’s picked

Let’s not put Duggar in Canton just yet, although he is no Jordan Richards

 

[Patsgofor4]

2nd and 3rd rounds are always a crapshoot (except OL in the second). Teams needs some luck throughout the entire draft, not just with UDFAs.


Most seem to think that the Ravens of the gold standard in terms of draft success, right?

Ravens' 2nd- and 3rd-round draft failures continue with trade of Kamalei Correa

[jwplayer tXd5adBr-ThvAeFxT] The Baltimore Ravens are truly the masters of the NFL draft. General manager Ozzie Newsome has struck absolute gold so many times it can’t simply be chalked up to…

ravenswire.usatoday.com

Plus:
2nd Round - 2010 / LB Sergio Kindle
2nd Round - 2010 / DT Terrence Cody

Some here have a very myopic view of the draft. Even the most competent scouting departments and front offices regularly swing and miss on day 2 and 3.

 

[DaBruinz]

2nd and 3rd rounds are always a crapshoot (except OL in the second). Teams needs some luck throughout the entire draft, not just with UDFAs.
View attachment 43038

Most seem to think that the Ravens of the gold standard in terms of draft success, right?

Ravens' 2nd- and 3rd-round draft failures continue with trade of Kamalei Correa

[jwplayer tXd5adBr-ThvAeFxT] The Baltimore Ravens are truly the masters of the NFL draft. General manager Ozzie Newsome has struck absolute gold so many times it can’t simply be chalked up to…

ravenswire.usatoday.com

Plus:
2nd Round - 2010 / LB Sergio Kindle
2nd Round - 2010 / DT Terrence Cody

Some here have a very myopic view of the draft. Even the most competent scouting departments and front offices regularly swing and miss on day 2 and 3.

Come on.. You're confusing him with facts.

 

[mgteich]

Yes and regardless of people here would lead you to belive, it is a very very small sample size. So it is really really hard to draw any correlation from it.

If you flip a coin 3 times and get 3 heads you could decide the odds are 100% that every time you flip a coin you will get a head. Statistics doesn't work that way

Flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads 100 times. What is the probability of a heads on the next flip.

A) 50%

B) close to 100%

C) something else

 

[Kasmir]

[wrong reply]

 

[Patsgofor4]

Can you post your source? I'd like to look at the numbers.

There's one glaring anomaly regarding DL success percentage: 4th @37% > 3rd @27% > 2nd @26%!

I assume that even being a historical study that the sample size for DL's at these rounds are small enough so that the variance error bars are large enough to allow for this anomaly.

What stats tells us about the draft by round

The best times to draft certain positions based on the last 10 years.

www.arrowheadpride.com

The link has been posted a number of times. It’s based on 10 years of data.

 

[Wozzy]

I'm pretty high on UDFA CB Devin Hafford. The guy is very similar to Jalen Mills, a smidge less fast but he's really strong. Mills and this kid, or Butler/Mitchell should be able to beat WR's up on the outside and be physical. The speedy midgets can smother the speedy midgets.

​

Center Kody Russell is also incredibly strong and talented to have gone undrafted. This year's class undoubtedly had a lot of depth with 5th year seniors returning due to covid.

 

[Kasmir]

2nd and 3rd rounds are always a crapshoot (except OL in the second). Teams needs some luck throughout the entire draft, not just with UDFAs.
View attachment 43038

Most seem to think that the Ravens of the gold standard in terms of draft success, right?

Ravens' 2nd- and 3rd-round draft failures continue with trade of Kamalei Correa

[jwplayer tXd5adBr-ThvAeFxT] The Baltimore Ravens are truly the masters of the NFL draft. General manager Ozzie Newsome has struck absolute gold so many times it can’t simply be chalked up to…

ravenswire.usatoday.com

Plus:
2nd Round - 2010 / LB Sergio Kindle
2nd Round - 2010 / DT Terrence Cody

Some here have a very myopic view of the draft. Even the most competent scouting departments and front offices regularly swing and miss on day 2 and 3.

Can you post your source? I'd like to look at the numbers.

There's one glaring anomaly regarding DL success percentage: 4th @37% > 3rd @27% > 2nd @26%!

I assume that even being a historical study that the sample size for DL's at these rounds are small enough so that the variance error bars are large enough to allow for this anomaly.

Even if a result is statistically significant, there is still variance that can be surprisingly large: for example assuming a normal distribution with a "true" success rate of 50%, even at at 500 samples the variance is +- 4.4%. So I suspect the "history" is something like 20-30 years...

 

[Kasmir]

What stats tells us about the draft by round

The best times to draft certain positions based on the last 10 years.

www.arrowheadpride.com

The link has been posted a number of times. It’s based on 10 years of data.

That explains the high variance. 10 years of data is 320 samples per position per round, so about +- 5.7% variance...

 

[upstater1]

Let’s not put Duggar in Canton just yet, although he is no Jordan Richards

No one put Duggar in Canton; they're trying to put him behind bars.

As for Kyle Dugger, he's an athletic freak who looks excellent to me.

 

[Patsgofor4]

That explains the high variance. 10 years of data is 320 samples per position per round, so about +- 5.7% variance...

 

[Wozzy]

No one put Duggar in Canton; they're trying to put him behind bars.

As for Kyle Dugger, he's an athletic freak who looks excellent to me.

Duggar’s a stud… not the pedophile but the safety.

 

[mgteich]

I'm pretty high on UDFA CB Devin Hafford. The guy is very similar to Jalen Mills, a smidge less fast but he's really strong. Mills and this kid, or Butler/Mitchell should be able to beat WR's up on the outside and be physical. The speedy midgets can smother the speedy midgets.

​

He should have no trouble beating out Butler AND Mitchell AND Wade AND Williams and Bryant. NOT

Or perhaps you by being "pretty high" on Hafford, you mean that he has an outside chance at making the Practice Squad.

 

[Wozzy]

He should have no trouble beating out Butler AND Mitchell AND Wade AND Williams and Bryant. NOT

Or perhaps you by being "pretty high" on Hafford, you mean that he has an outside chance at making the Practice Squad.

I mean he has an outside chance of making the team and becoming next in a long line of UDFA CB’s who the Pats have discovered. I never give guarantees on rookies, no matter how highly I regard them… rookies are scratch tickets. Some pay out, some don’t.

Butler is no sure thing having been away from football for a full season and not great prior to that. Mitchell is my guess to start, but he’s no world beater, and all these guys are very similar.

Wade has never done anything, Williams is not certain to be here and Myles Bryant is the reason they drafted two slot CB’s in the draft. If he was the answer as Jon Jones successor they wouldn’t have.

 

[Kasmir]

View attachment 43048

Yep and that's a problem. Unless you are trained, you are going to eff up the numbers. It amazes me that few folks even notice anomalies like "DL success percentage: 4th rnd @37% > 3rd rnd @27% > 2nd rnd @26%" let alone care about the implications. When you care about the math behind numbers, it's hard to communicate with people who don't.