Patriots Host QB Will Levis as Part of Their Top 30 Visits

[upstater1]

I hope you’re right; I’m curious as to who you have as the blue chippers? @BaconGrundleCandy has 9 in his list, but none of the QBs are in that group either. So assuming those 4 (Richardson, Levis, Young, Stroud) are all taken, that gets to 13 based on his list, so we’d still be on the outside. I’m thinking maybe Paris Johnson is the difference, who BGC has just outside of that range?

If you include Broderick Jones and Paris Johnson, that's 11 other than the 4 QBs.

In fact, BGC's Patriot target list does include Jones and Johnson as 1st round grades, and it adds DE Murphy and WRs Johnston and JSN.

So that's 14 other than the 4 QBs.

 

[mgteich]

Lots of plug-in starters in the late 1st and 2nd. 30% to 50% fail in R1 and R2, so having an extra pick means we will statistically have a 100% chance of a plug-in starter whereas having only one pick at #14 means it is a toss up if we will have a plug-in starter or not.

If it was a Top 10 pick in a year with a strong draft class I would agree with you. At #14 with a weak top end draft class, it is better to trade down.

"statistically" true if the pick at 14 has the SAME chance of success as players in the bottom of the second.
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While I think that there is a small list of players rated as blue chippers by our staff, it is a HUGE overreach to believe that moving down for a extras player doubles our chance for a plug-in starter.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

While I think that there is a small list of players rated as blue chippers by our staff, it is a HUGE overreach to believe that moving down for a extras player doubles our chance for a plug-in starter.

If the failure rate is 50% and the Pats have 2 picks instead of 1, then that doubles our chance of success. Probably a generalization, but not too far off.

 

[upstater1]

If the failure rate is 50% and the Pats have 2 picks instead of 1, then that doubles our chance of success. Probably a generalization, but not too far off.

The failure rate increases as you move down your board, and--frankly--given this organization's overwhelming success with 1st rounders and underwhelming drafting of 2nd rounders, you can see how it might play out

 

[VJCPatriot]

That's not even a bad deal if the Patriots are moving all the way up to the #2 pick to draft a new QB. Two 1sts plus Mac Jones for the #2 overall?

Rumors are flying that Mac Jones is on the way out.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Damn, Brady was lucky to come out in 2000 and just barely get drafted then. Nowadays he would even get that 6th round chance because in your take every dual threat QB coming out of college has more upside than Brady despite none of them ever having won anything in the NFL, let alone doing it for 20 years like Brady or even 18 years like Peyton Manning.

People don't value more traditional pocket passers any less or more today. This is what a certain crowd doesn't comprehend. It's just about what you're given to work with in terms of evaluation. There's just a lot less of those guys around compared to years past. They're just not coming down the pipeline like they used to be. Few and far between. More "system" or "safer" guys that are tied to a specific scheme like Goff, Baker, Mac along with more athletes. Coaches have been putting the best athletes at QB for the last 20-30 years a lot more than in years past.

It's always been the case that the NCAA has been dominated by dual threat QB's

This isn't true either unless you just started watching college ball in the last 20-30 years. 60-90's certainly weren't dominated by duel threats. They really started creeping into the game in the 90's. Before that they were few and far between. Coaches didn't start to really trust these guys before the 2010's.

but in the NFL "pro-style" QB's are the ones with long term success. That's because in college you only need 2-3 years out of your QB but franchise QB's are expected to have 10+ year careers in the NFL. Dual threat QB's lose the ability to run just like RB's do. That's why a Brock Purdy has more actual NFL upside than Trey Lance despite their injury history.

That's not what "upside" means.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

If you include Broderick Jones and Paris Johnson, that's 11 other than the 4 QBs.

In fact, BGC's Patriot target list does include Jones and Johnson as 1st round grades, and it adds DE Murphy and WRs Johnston and JSN.

So that's 14 other than the 4 QBs.

I use rough values I come up with on prospects for the PTP. Reason being is everyone "reaches" in the 1st RD. There's never 32 1st RD grades and you won't get guys exactly where I have them valued. Like guys like Kiper and most of those birds put guys in a spot bc that's where they believe they'll get drafted. Not if they're actually worth that grade. I grade with more of a long-term view so rarely do things line up.

So if I know there's a 90% chance Johnson isn't making it to the bottom of the 2nd/top of 1st where I have him ill just round off those guys to something more realistic on draft night.

 

[PatsFan2]

That's not even a bad deal if the Patriots are moving all the way up to the #2 pick to draft a new QB. Two 1sts plus Mac Jones for the #2 overall?

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The failure rate increases as you move down your board, and--frankly--given this organization's overwhelming success with 1st rounders and underwhelming drafting of 2nd rounders, you can see how it might play out

You have to look at recent drafts after Kraft restructured. Looking at success rates by round before the "draft management restructuring" is pointless. Since the restructure 1. Duggar 2. Uche 3. Barmore 4. Thornton. If Thornton has a Y2 jump, it is a 100% success after the draft management changes. That is not underwhelming drafting in Round 2 from the new draft team in place now.

 

[PatsFan2]

You have to look at recent drafts after Kraft restructured. Looking at success rates by round before the "draft management restructuring" is pointless. Since the restructure 1. Duggar 2. Uche 3. Barmore 4. Thornton. If Thornton has a Y2 jump, it is a 100% success after the draft management changes. That is not underwhelming drafting in Round 2 from the new draft team in place now.

And that's Big IF if we had Drafted Pickens that pick wouldn't be an "IF".

 

[PatsFan2]

You have to look at recent drafts after Kraft restructured. Looking at success rates by round before the "draft management restructuring" is pointless. Since the restructure 1. Duggar 2. Uche 3. Barmore 4. Thornton. If Thornton has a Y2 jump, it is a 100% success after the draft management changes. That is not underwhelming drafting in Round 2 from the new draft team in place now.

Dugger -Uche and Barmore stopped the Patriots Second Round bleeding a little it's still not pretty. I don't like your Second Round take the BB Pats have done Historically well in the Fourth Round compared to the Second round and that's a Fact!

 

[Sfpat]

So based on a Reddit rumor, the Pats will draft Bryce Young since a Reddit rumor also claims Levis will go #1?

 

[Love The Drake]

And that's Big IF if we had Drafted Pickens that pick wouldn't be an "IF".

Let’s give Thornton some actual coaches before we discount the selection.
He was my favorite receiver in the draft.
I had Pickens off my board due to attitude issues.

 

[Love The Drake]

So based on a Reddit rumor, the Pats will draft Bryce Young since a Reddit rumor also claims Levis will go #1?

Imagine Bill O B with Bryce Young that would be interesting.

 

[upstater1]

And that's Big IF if we had Drafted Pickens that pick wouldn't be an "IF".

Here's another IF. Can the notoriously ill-tempered Pickens keep it together? He had some blow ups last year.

And he was a big mess at Georgia, from frequent violation of team rules to fighting to car accidents. He was banned for the 1st half of the Georgia Tech game for team rules violations, gets on the field, starts a fight, gets tossed out for the LSU game the following week, etc. then more rules violations.

His coach called him selfish and immature. I mean, this... "We're going to help George. We're going to help him grow up. "

1st round talent, 10 cent head.

 

[Love The Drake]

Here's another IF. Can the notoriously ill-tempered Pickens keep it together? He had some blow ups last year.

And he was a big mess at Georgia, from frequent violation of team rules to fighting to car accidents. He was banned for the 1st half of the Georgia Tech game for team rules violations, gets on the field, starts a fight, gets tossed out for the LSU game the following week, etc. then more rules violations.

His coach called him selfish and immature. I mean, this... "We're going to help George. We're going to help him grow up. "

1st round talent, 10 cent head.

He’s going to be another AB or worse.

Thornton models his game after Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill not ready to give up on him.

 

[Rob0729]

That's not even a bad deal if the Patriots are moving all the way up to the #2 pick to draft a new QB. Two 1sts plus Mac Jones for the #2 overall?

Rumors are flying that Mac Jones is on the way out.

This isn't a rumor. This is Holley's hot take. People need to know the definition of what a rumor. Holley is making a prediction based on all the crap we already know.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

And that's Big IF if we had Drafted Pickens that pick wouldn't be an "IF".

Pickens performance is greatly exaggerated by you. We will see. Time will tell.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Dugger -Uche and Barmore stopped the Patriots Second Round bleeding a little it's still not pretty. I don't like your Second Round take the BB Pats have done Historically well in the Fourth Round compared to the Second round and that's a Fact!

Yes it is a fact that Nick Caserio was bad at leading the Pats draft. Caserio is in TX and the new management has done well over the last 3 years. Your take is dated, shows no knowledge of the present situation, and lacks awareness. That's a fact.

 

[Rob0729]

And that's Big IF if we had Drafted Pickens that pick wouldn't be an "IF".

Is it a big if? The coaching last year was awful. Virtually all the receivers regressed last year too and did some of the worst route running I can remember this team doing. Was Thornton hindered by poor coaching? I thought most of his biggest issues last year (working the sidelines, slowing down on routes when he should have ran through them) are correctable with good coaching.

Who knows if he will be a good or great WR, but I expect a big year 2 jump from him just because coaching held him back last year.