Patriots Player Departure Patriots are sending WR Kayshon Boutte to the Texans for safety Jaylen Reed and a draft pick

[PatsFan2]

The guys ahead of him in that link have very low success rates. Look at Pierce. 84 targets, 47 catches.

This is why it's so important to look at the average result of a play rather than individual stats without context. How many yards do I get when I target this guy? That's much more important than how many yards does this guy get when he catches a ball?

So, for instance, Pierce would drop to 11.9 ypt. Which is the same as Boutte.

Compare Boutte to Christian Watson or Terry McLaurin. Both of them are at 11.1 and 9.7.

I am not making out Boutte to be some top receiver. I am just pointing out that his value, in the way he plays for the Patriots, really sticks out when you're looking at him on a play-by-play basis.

A lot of this discussion reminds me of the time we let Jakobi Meyers go.

Excellent post and look at the $$$$$$ Pierce got in FA: Boutte was on a similar pace before his injury. So if Boutte had played 17 heathy games and come close to Pierce's numbers; Romeo Doubs wouldn't be here. Now watch the PatsFans Rebuttals flow in.

 

[Water Boy]

He won't put up 6 TDs with Stroud. Maye is on another level and could drop that ball into the tight window for Boutte to make an amazing catch. Stroud is horrible. He can't do that. He has only regressed since year 1.

I think that's part of of the discussion that hasn't been focused on enough.

Boutte is a good contested catch receiver, but he benefited immensly being paired with Maye. There seems to be this idea that Boutte is some unique unreplaceable cog in the offense rather than a serviceable receiver who we got the most out off with his ceiling clearly being achieved in the estimation of the front offense.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

C'mon. Boutte is a binkie for so many people here. We're gonna hear nothing but moans the minute he makes his first catch for Houston, and pretty much every good game he has thereafter. Saw similar things for Ty Thornton. Jakobi Meyers, etc. Even saw some moaning for N'Keal Harry even though almost everyone understood it was time for his stay here to end.

Don't sleep on Ty Thornton. Any day now...

 

[Triumph]

Consensus I’m seeing is most fans hate this trade and wanted Boutte to stay.

But, Boutte did not want to stay.

I suspect that money was the issue. Like with Moss, nobody wanted Randy to leave, but he would not let the money thing go. Same with Gronk who was almost was traded until he caved and got in formation.

 

[Rob0729]

The guys ahead of him in that link have very low success rates. Look at Pierce. 84 targets, 47 catches.

This is why it's so important to look at the average result of a play rather than individual stats without context. How many yards do I get when I target this guy? That's much more important than how many yards does this guy get when he catches a ball?

So, for instance, Pierce would drop to 11.9 ypt. Which is the same as Boutte.

Compare Boutte to Christian Watson or Terry McLaurin. Both of them are at 11.1 and 9.7.

I am not making out Boutte to be some top receiver. I am just pointing out that his value, in the way he plays for the Patriots, really sticks out when you're looking at him on a play-by-play basis.

A lot of this discussion reminds me of the time we let Jakobi Meyers go.

Meyers was a better and more productive WR than Boutte. I wasn't all that upset about Meyers going because I didn't realize how washed up Smith-Schuster was at the time. If I knew, I would have been more upset about Meyers not being resigned.

And you are comparing Boutte to guys targeted significantly more than him. The more you are targeted, the more likely your catch percentage goes down.

But again, Boutte was not going to happy here as a #4 or #5 WR and could have made waves. I think that is what he really is maybe a #3 WR. He really isn't a starter. He was not going to resign here even if he stayed and was a good soldier all year. And I don't look at him as a guy is going to make any significant difference to how the Pats do this season whether he is here or not.

I don't like what the Pats got in compensation. But the market sets the price. The Pats have been shopping Boutte for months. If they could have gotten more, I am sure they would have. If they were going to dump him for a player like Reed (who may actually have some value, but isn't widely known) and a future seventh, they would have sent him to the NFC if there was anyone willing to give up that much. Face it. the league doesn't think Boutte is all that good.

 

[Clonamery]

Pizza is hard to snort. Bust love eating it

I'm sure Bust does.

 

[Dec54]

We keeping 5 Safeties plus Schooler?

This move points to a few things...they're happy with the progress of Kyle Williams and Chism. Also McDaniels feels that Pop Douglas is ready to be that productive volume Slot: and they like the prospects of developmental players Nick DeG - Kyle Dixon and Cameron Dorner.

We keeping 5 Safeties plus Schooler?

As below

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Combined the threads? Also unless Reed is good, we sold Boutte for nothing. I was never expecting to get a 4th... but a 7th is low.

I think we likely get just as much if not more if we let him play out his deal this year, become a free agent and get a comp pick. So to me this seems like Reed is the real value. I hope he is worth it.

It doesn't get lower. I guess comp picks, arguably

Edit: oh yeah, it could have been a 7th in... oh. It could have been in 2029.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

It doesn't get lower. I guess comp picks, arguably

Boutte is a bonafide NFL player.
Reed has to be the same for the deal to make any sense.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Boutte is a bonafide NFL player.
Reed has to be the same for the deal to make any sense.

Ye of little faith! I've just been schooled on the deceptive value of being unknown and having no resume. Those are the blue-chip guys.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Ye of little faith! I've just been schooled on the deceptive value of being unknown and having no resume. Those are the blue-chip guys.

To be fair, I think Reed has a chance. I’m a PSU fan, I liked him in college. He was a good defender and STs player.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

The guys ahead of him in that link have very low success rates. Look at Pierce. 84 targets, 47 catches.

This is why it's so important to look at the average result of a play rather than individual stats without context. How many yards do I get when I target this guy? That's much more important than how many yards does this guy get when he catches a ball?

So, for instance, Pierce would drop to 11.9 ypt. Which is the same as Boutte.

Compare Boutte to Christian Watson or Terry McLaurin. Both of them are at 11.1 and 9.7.

I am not making out Boutte to be some top receiver. I am just pointing out that his value, in the way he plays for the Patriots, really sticks out when you're looking at him on a play-by-play basis.

A lot of this discussion reminds me of the time we let Jakobi Meyers go.

You have to also look at coverage though. When you talk about deep threats, a huge component of their value isn't just in the plays they make statistically, it's how they impact coverage on plays they don't.

Relative to other deep ball specialists, Boutte was relatively low volume statistically last year and a lot of his catches were contested catches in one on one. He converted an exceptionally high volume of them, but contested catches downfield are generally unreliable over larger sample sizes and that's why defenses didn't really react to it and start shifting coverage to him in a meaningful way that opens things up for others. That's why the Patriots nor the league seem to value him (as evidenced by the trade made with him) compared to those other guys you cite who actually move defenses in ways that open things up for others and are still able to produce against those coverages via actually getting separation which is a reliable way to run your passing game rather than relying on contested catches.

Not saying Boutte sucks, but this added context to your statistical analysis is why I believe he's not valued on par with the other guys. We'll see what happens with his production and eventual contract though.

 

[TheRainMaker]

But, Boutte did not want to stay.

He probably didn't. But he's in the same position in Houston as he's going to be the 3rd option at best.

I suspect that money was the issue. Like with Moss, nobody wanted Randy to leave, but he would not let the money thing go. Same with Gronk who was almost was traded until he caved and got in formation.

Both Tom and Gronk were tired of BB especially after the Eagles Super Bowl. Tom initially told Bob he wanted out and Gronk ignored the Pats when contacting him.

Bob granted Tom's wish, but Tom decided to come back.

The trade was in place, but Gronk blocked it when he found out about it. He told the Pats he was retiring and the trade was immediately cancelled. Retired after the 2018 season and waited for Brady to leave NE to join him wherever he went.

 

[Joey007]

As a rookie, Reed started one game before being injured. He started 2 playoff games.

He is a keeper and should be at least our #3 this year and next. He also played a lot of ST's last year.

If Boutte was going to walk regardless this offseason, and Reed becomes this and the 1-2-3 at receiver performs as expected, this can work out fine.

 

[Joey007]

And started both of Houston’s playoff games

Seems like those performances were a mixed bag. Nothing awful, though.

 

[Wozzy]

1. Boutte wasn't holding out. he was enthusiastically participating in all practices/preseason games. Your considered analysis, such as it is, that contracts are made out of paper, is therefore not in point.

Do you think Boutte wants a new contract or not?

The Pats told Boutte and his agent what they thought when they traded a first for AJ Brown and paid Doubs.

It's also absurd on the face of it. In your next breath you say you're not just trading for a player., you're trading for a contract. Well, if it's just a piece of paper, who cares? Nobody will honor an inconvenient one, and there's no branch of the law dealing with contracts, so you're just SOL unless the player and team both feel that day that it's a fair deal.

If your agent and the team aren’t discussing a new contract when you don’t have anymore guaranteed money, then there’s nothing left to say.

Reality: although there is such a thing as a holdout, the much-maligned "piece of paper" - the contract - is , despite breaches, the basic legal instrument governing player pay. That's not to say that people won't breach contracts or find convenient yet legal ways to get around their obligations.

Ouch… my hamstring hurts.

But given that Boutte was showing every sign of playing for his contracted amount this year, your ridicule for those who point out contractual obligations is not applicable here, to our knowledge.

The season hadn’t started yet and he asked to be traded months ago.

Yes, players can go outside of their contractual obligations. Their ability to do so has a lot to do with whether they are premier performers. Boutte was mid.

It’s not what the player perceives his skill level is… they all think they’re great. It’s snaps. Boutte was a starter and played among the most snaps on the team the last two years. He thinks he should be starting now… NE disagreed.

2. Please refrain from grand statements regarding what I "believe." You can say what you believe all you want. As it happens, you expressed an inaccurate guess at my inner musings, beginning with the phrase "you believe...." But beyond the inaccurac\\y, it's presumptuous. Argue from what I've said, and you'll be much more likely to capture the nut of any disagreement.

I haven’t made a single grand statement.

3. quoting you...
"Secondly, I said a team trading for a player then giving him a massive new contract is not smart. And I was very exact with my words. If Boutte was worth a 4th round pick, but he’s in the last year of his previous contract and won’t play without a new contract, he is now worth a 6th."

Sure, teams like to pay a proven performer as if he were an unproven prospect. Sure, with Boutte, you only get to do that for one year. For one year, you get proven production cheap.

You’re assuming.

Remember… ouch, my hamstring hurts.

After that, you're negotiating a contract. Of course you'd like 4 years of that, but that's impossible on a 4 year deal. Failing that, how about 3 years? But then he'll only have evidence of being serviceable that 1 year. After two years, perhaps there's a sweet spot: Two straight years of proof of usefulness, two years of low-cost production. Then with 3 years you have clear proof he can do it year-in and year-out, but also you have less cheap production left.

The Pats moved on when they acquired Brown and Doubs. That was time to sell Boutte in NE stock like I did. I wasn’t able to see the future, I made a calculated guess based on facts.’

So where do these valuations of yours come from? "If" he were worth a 4th before? Why do you think that he was? Do you have a draft day-style chart that says "prospect who becomes team's #2 - #2a receiver is worth a 4th after one year of performance, a 5th after 2, and a 6th after 3, because he loses the value of contracts the new team does not have to write"?

I provided an example. I didn’t say it was scientific fact. But we can certainly look to similar trades for examples.

If anything, he is more proven after three years of good performance. So acquire him after 1 year., you have lots of years to find out cheap. Get him after 3, and you know what you're buying, but you have to reup sooner.

I’m lost… this is a convoluted word salad.

Strikes me they're doing it sooner than later, taking a relative loss in value, and making room for some improvements elsewhere, picking up some box safety depth, and taking the hit where they can best afford it, at WR.

They were going to cut him outright if they couldn’t trade him.

They did the same to Kendrick Bourne last season. They had a roster crunch.

Houston needs our receiver more than I perceive us as needing this specific safety. This trade looks like we need the safety much more, since he is unproven. Oh wait, since he's never done anything of note he must be the better value - how long's he never done anything? Just 1 year right? Then he must be the best value in the league.

I didn't scout him, and I personally don't see what Vrabes is seeing every day on the practice field in terms of our need.

Lots of possible inputs here. While it is cheaper to buy a contract closer to the time a player is drafted, it is at best one of a number of inputs.

Otherwis, every rookie trade would be causing Ricky Williams-size upheavals.

You sure type a lot. This meandering mess can be attributed to one thing, you and other fans overrated Boutte’s value.

 

[Bill Lee]

A good point made in that Tanner James breakdown of Reed is that we really struggled defending the flat against the Eagles and maybe Reed helps out there as a big nickel.

"Reed has flashed some nice click-and-close ability, especially when covering tight ends or reacting to passes in the flats -- something the Patriots specifically struggled with against the Eagles. "

There was also an article posted last year which @mayoclinic shared in the draft forum which basically said that we use safeties as force players in the run game. The DLs job is to force the run outside - the EDGEs crashing inside - and the CBs are used to set the outside edge with the safeties being the ones to make the tackle. We saw that plenty with Woodson last year and now have the potential to have that with Reed also, covering both sides of the LoS.

Sadly most fans won't notice an improvement in the run defense the same way they'll notice if Boutte gets off to a good start as WR2 next to Nico Collins.

 

[upstater1]

You have to also look at coverage though. When you talk about deep threats, a huge component of their value isn't just in the plays they make statistically, it's how they impact coverage on plays they don't.

Relative to other deep ball specialists, Boutte was relatively low volume statistically last year and a lot of his catches were contested catches in one on one. He converted an exceptionally high volume of them, but contested catches downfield are generally unreliable over larger sample sizes and that's why defenses didn't really react to it and start shifting coverage to him in a meaningful way that opens things up for others. That's why the Patriots nor the league seem to value him (as evidenced by the trade made with him) compared to those other guys you cite who actually move defenses in ways that open things up for others and are still able to produce against those coverages via actually getting separation which is a reliable way to run your passing game rather than relying on contested catches.

Not saying Boutte sucks, but this added context to your statistical analysis is why I believe he's not valued on par with the other guys. We'll see what happens with his production and eventual contract though.

Pierce got a huge bag because he was much higher volume, but look at the other players in that range. Their volume isnt that much higher.

The weird thing is that you're saying downfield throwing/catches that are contested... well, you can't rely on it.

And I'm saying that Boutte has shown the repeated and consistent ability to do well in these situations relative to the league.

In fact, for years we were chasing this type of player, for throws to the boundary, and now we had one.

To me this is death by metrics. This is why I mentioned Jakobi. If you go back to the Smith-Schuster thread, the vast majority preferred him because he got more separation than Jakobi and had a lot more YAC.

Sometimes you have to just appreciate good receiving skills and forget about the metrics.

 

[upstater1]

Meyers was a better and more productive WR than Boutte. I wasn't all that upset about Meyers going because I didn't realize how washed up Smith-Schuster was at the time. If I knew, I would have been more upset about Meyers not being resigned.

And you are comparing Boutte to guys targeted significantly more than him. The more you are targeted, the more likely your catch percentage goes down.

But again, Boutte was not going to happy here as a #4 or #5 WR and could have made waves. I think that is what he really is maybe a #3 WR. He really isn't a starter. He was not going to resign here even if he stayed and was a good soldier all year. And I don't look at him as a guy is going to make any significant difference to how the Pats do this season whether he is here or not.

I don't like what the Pats got in compensation. But the market sets the price. The Pats have been shopping Boutte for months. If they could have gotten more, I am sure they would have. If they were going to dump him for a player like Reed (who may actually have some value, but isn't widely known) and a future seventh, they would have sent him to the NFC if there was anyone willing to give up that much. Face it. the league doesn't think Boutte is all that good.

Some are targeted MORE but have less success.

This is why I said that the metrics lie.

The only stat I'm interested in is how much I'm getting on the average play. Not how much I'm getting when a play is successful.

 

[upstater1]

I'm seeing a lot of arguments about Boutte being a 4th or 5th WR here.

That's a great argument... IF Williams pans out.

This is what I've been saying all along. There's no problem with the trade IF Williams pans out.

And I've said that repeatedly.

But I've also said that if Williams DOES NOT pan out, then we not only have to look at the way we do WR evaluation because we selected Polk and Williams, but also because we let Boutte go!!!!