Patriots 53 Man Roster Projection 3.0

[ctpatsfan77]

It appears to me we put a lot of stock into special teams for a team that finished middle of the pack in basically every components in terms of coverage.

Overall, the Patriots STs ranked 4th according to Football Outsiders:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2012 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

And they were #1 in kickoff coverage, and a top 5 team on punt returns. Yes, the KRs and punt coverage weren't as awesome, but basically no team is great at everything.

 

[supafly]

If they cut him, his dead money is $800K this year and $800K next year, compared to $2.2M and $3.2M if he stays on the roster.

Given that they were willing to eat $3.5M to dump Brandon Lloyd, I hardly think that $800K/$800K makes Gregory a "tough cut to swallow."

I think the problem would be finding an adequate replacement as a rotational guy, especially when we're dealing with 2 very green safeties in T.Wilson and Duron Harmon at the moment.

 

[supafly]

I really don't think they're giving up on Tavon Wilson that quickly.

No way are they going to release Tavon Wilson already unless he's absolutely lost or has some serious injury or character issues. I agree with you. I'm not saying that he didn't go through serious growing pains last year or even addressing whether or not he sucked or didn't suck, but one would have to think that Belichick will want to see more of him.

He didn't go against the grain to select him in the 2nd round against the "experts" analysis, only to cut him during training camp prior to his second year.

...but with Ballard hobbling Gronk being on the 53 is more likely now.

It would seem to me that Gronkowski's health and ability to play (or only miss 1-2 games) would be much more of a reason to keep him on the 53 man roster as opposed to whether or not Jake Ballard is doing okay or not.

I don't see the relationship as much as you do, but I definitely get where you're coming from.

Do we know that Dunn's agency still represents Hern-idiot?

I couldn't find any info one way or another, but Dunn didn't have any issue with Hernandez continuing to promote Dunn's company by wearing his hat during the whole series of events. I don't know how much we can read into that hint or not, but it'd seem to me like Dunn isn't going to jump ship too early like some agents would do.

 

[ATippett56]

I think the problem would be finding an adequate replacement as a rotational guy, especially when we're dealing with 2 very green safeties in T.Wilson and Duron Harmon at the moment.

The New England Patriots won a Super Bowl in 2003 with a very green safety in Eugene Wilson and won a Super Bowl in 2004 with a very green cornerback in Randall Gay.

 

[supafly]

The New England Patriots won a Super Bowl in 2003 with a very green safety in Eugene Wilson and won a Super Bowl in 2004 with a very green cornerback in Randall Gay.

What do either of those examples have to do with having adequate depth at the position and replacing the saved cost with another viable candidate?

We all understand that Gregory is limited in skill set, but he at least provides some experience both in our system and in the NFL overall with 2 crappy safeties (pretty much 3) behind him.

The truth of the matter is that Gregory is probably fine as a rotational backup safety, but shouldn't be starting--and that problem has been addressed. How many NFL teams have "good" or "better than average" 3rd safeties?

 

[ATippett56]

What do either of those examples have to do with having adequate depth at the position and replacing the saved cost with another viable candidate?

We all understand that Gregory is limited in skill set, but he at least provides some experience both in our system and in the NFL overall with 2 crappy safeties (pretty much 3) behind him.

The truth of the matter is that Gregory is probably fine as a rotational backup safety, but shouldn't be starting--and that problem has been addressed. How many NFL teams have "good" or "better than average" 3rd safeties?

2 crappy safeties behind him?

How do you know whether safety Tavon Wilson does not improve in his second season?

How do you know whether safety Duron Harmon is substandard?

Roster spots are precious and I for one do not foresee six safeties on the 53 man roster.

 

[supafly]

2 crappy safeties behind him?

How do you know whether safety Tavon Wilson does not improve in his second season?

How do you know whether safety Duron Harmon is substandard?

Roster spots are precious and I for one do not foresee six safeties on the 53 man roster.

I think we'd have to see one of them step up first, which was my original point when you came back with "we had a green secondary player before and succeeded."

Having 2 very young and inexperienced players behind Gregory is something that Belichick may take into consideration. If either one of them stepped up then it would be a much better idea.

We also almost won the SB in 2011 with a cornerback cast of complete misfits playing in the biggest game of the year. It doesn't mean that any of us want to go that route again.

 

[ATippett56]

We also almost won the SB in 2011 with a cornerback cast of complete misfits playing in the biggest game of the year. It doesn't mean that any of us want to go that route again.

Don't you think that issue was addressed in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft?

 

[supafly]

Roster spots are precious and I for one do not foresee six safeties on the 53 man roster.

We all know that there is another important candidate who is a special teams only player who is currently the "6th" safety in your grouping. You mentioned the battle between Ebner, Cole, and Blount last night in another post.

If Belichick chooses to go with Harmon, T.Wilson, and Ebner as our real playing time safeties behind McCourty and A.Wilson then shame on him, because that may get ugly.

If Belichick sees a viable candidate from another team's roster cuts and decides to give that a shot instead then that may work out a lot better in terms of cutting Gregory.

 

[ATippett56]

IHaving 2 very young and inexperienced players behind Gregory is something that Belichick may take into consideration. If either one of them stepped up then it would be a much better idea.

Both backup safeties during the 2004 NFL Season for the New England Patriots were rookies, Guss Scott and Dexter Reid.

 

[ATippett56]

If Belichick chooses to go with Harmon, T.Wilson, and Ebner as our real playing time safeties behind McCourty and A.Wilson then shame on him, because that may get ugly.

Ugly? You want to know about ugly? Gregory and Cole were absolutely wretched in the second half of the AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens.

 

[supafly]

Don't you think that issue was addressed in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft?

In terms of a safety that no one had on their draft boards?

Who we're going to couple with last year's safety who no one had in the first 5 rounds again? Who did quite poorly at times and has been taking reps with 3rd stringers?

And on top of that we're going to round everything off with a guy who played rugby and offers a special teams presence (not that I don't appreciate him)?

That sounds like an awfully shaky group that is already backing up a guy who is old and can't cover very well anymore in Adrian Wilson.

It's a year too early to get rid of Gregory just yet in my opinion. You obviously feel that Tavon Wilson, Duron Harmon, and Nate Ebner have proven themselves in adequate fashion to play actual live rotational reps and possibly even start. I would highly disagree.

 

[supafly]

Ugly? You want to know about ugly? Gregory and Cole were absolutely wretched in the second half of the AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens.

I'm not even remotely talking about Marquise Cole. We all know the problem with the poor depth at CB. That issue has been addressed and it's possible that Logan Ryan will displace him as the 2nd gunner anyway. If Cole is kept he won't be seeing the field as an actual CB.

As many have told you, Gregory shouldn't be starting. That was obviously a mistake, as was Patrick Chung and having a rookie (T.Wilson) as the top 3 safety prospects heading into the season.

Gregory however, is just as good of a backup as any other safety for any other team. He's played the starting role before and he has experience. I'm not understanding all of the concern over a 3rd or 4th safety who has been a starter before. Who else is going to overtake him? How many NFL teams have better 3rd/4th safeties on their roster?

I'd be fine with cutting Gregory if Belichick has his eyes on something better from a camp/cap casualty, but if we're going to count on Harmon, T.Wilson, and Ebner backing things up we may be in trouble.

 

[manxman2601]

In terms of a safety that no one had on their draft boards?

Who we're going to couple with last year's safety who no one had in the first 5 rounds again? Who did quite poorly at times and has been taking reps with 3rd stringers?

And on top of that we're going to round everything off with a guy who played rugby and offers a special teams presence (not that I don't appreciate him)?

That sounds like an awfully shaky group that is already backing up a guy who is old and can't cover very well anymore in Adrian Wilson.

It's a year too early to get rid of Gregory just yet in my opinion. You obviously feel that Tavon Wilson, Duron Harmon, and Nate Ebner have proven themselves in adequate fashion to play actual live rotational reps and possibly even start. I would highly disagree.

Do you mean teams or pundits? If first, well you know perfectly well that such a statement can't be corroborated. and if the latter, so what! Pundits don't draft anyone.

I understand your point, and I see no real reason to cut Gregory this year unless they're looking to free up some cap room but you're being harsh on Harmon here.

 

[ATippett56]

In terms of a safety that no one had on their draft boards?

You do realize that Duron Harmon was voted First-team All-Big East his senior season?

 

[ATippett56]

As many have told you, Gregory shouldn't be starting. That was obviously a mistake, as was Patrick Chung and having a rookie (T.Wilson) as the top 3 safety prospects heading into the season.

I see no reason to keep four free safeties on the 53 man roster:

McCourty
Gregory
T. Wilson
Harmon

 

[Mack Herron]

I see no reason to keep four free safeties on the 53 man roster:

McCourty
Gregory
T. Wilson
Harmon

If A Wilson cannot cover deep, then are we stuck with Gregory playing out of position again? Isn't the problem that are searching for just 1 reliable SS? This position gets my vote for "weak link".

 

[Deus Irae]

If they cut him, his dead money is $800K this year and $800K next year, compared to $2.2M and $3.2M if he stays on the roster.

Given that they were willing to eat $3.5M to dump Brandon Lloyd, I hardly think that $800K/$800K makes Gregory a "tough cut to swallow."

If they cut him, they have to find someone to take his spot, and they take a hit of almost a million dollars this year and next. His salary this season is only $1.25m, meaning his dead money, if cut, is higher than his salary for the year. I expect him to be cut in the upcoming offseason, which makes more financial sense, and gives the team more time to find/groom a replacement, since neither Wilson nor Wilson have recently shown the ability to cover on the back end.

 

[Brady6]

You do realize that Duron Harmon was voted First-team All-Big East his senior season?

He was also projected as a PFA in mock drafts, with a high of 6th-7th round, so there in lines the divide. Not to imply that mock drafts are accurate especially in mid rounds, I'm just pointing out why some overlook Harmon as a true candidate.

I think it's worth looking at least to see how Harmon stacks up in terms of measurable's against some of the other top safety prospects in the last 2 years.

Name Height Weight 40 20 10 Bench Vertical Broad Shuffle 3-Cone
Harmon 6'0 196 4.51 2.67 1.6 15 36 10"05" 4.4 7.02
Barron 6'1 213 4.54 2.65 1.63 N/A 34.5 10"02" N/A N/A
Vaccaro 6'0 214 4.59 2.59 1.6 15 38 10"01" 4.06 6.78
H. Smith 6'2 213 4.54 2.59 1.54 19 34 10"02 4.12 6.63
T. Wilson 6'0 205 4.52 2.56 1.6 17 32 10"04" 4.16 7.04
Cyprien 6'0 217 4.64 2.65 1.52 18 N/A 9"11" 4.44 7.01

 

[manxman2601]

He was also projected as a PFA in mock drafts, with a high of 6th-7th round, so there in lines the divide. Not to imply that mock drafts are accurate especially in mid rounds, I'm just pointing out why some overlook Harmon as a true candidate.

I think it's worth looking at least to see how Harmon stacks up in terms of measurable's against some of the other top safety prospects in the last 2 years.

Name Height Weight 40 20 10 Bench Vertical Broad Shuffle 3-Cone
Harmon 6'0 196 4.51 2.67 1.6 15 36 10"05" 4.4 7.02
Barron 6'1 213 4.54 2.65 1.63 N/A 34.5 10"02" N/A N/A
Vaccaro 6'0 214 4.59 2.59 1.6 15 38 10"01" 4.06 6.78
H. Smith 6'2 213 4.54 2.59 1.54 19 34 10"02 4.12 6.63
T. Wilson 6'0 205 4.52 2.56 1.6 17 32 10"04" 4.16 7.04
Cyprien 6'0 217 4.64 2.65 1.52 18 N/A 9"11" 4.44 7.01

Measurables aren't all that relevant for safeties, it's all about the instincts. Of course, good instincts and good measurables certainly win.