Patriots 53 Man Roster Projection 3.0

[PatsFans.com Article]

Patriots 53 Man Roster Projection 3.0
By: Steve Balestrieri

Talib has had a fantastic camp; Dennard stood out the first few days as well but hasn't seen much work lately...

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[manxman2601]

I really don't think they're giving up on Tavon Wilson that quickly. I'd add him in and take out Aiken personally. I can also see them only carrying three DTs (no Vellano) and maybe playing Justin Francis there at a push. Should see at least a couple on the PS though. I'd then add in Buchanan for Vellano. Finally, I think Ryan Allen has a really good chance of replacing Mesko.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Good roster.

I'd knock Aiken off to make room for Wilson. As Wilson is better playing closer to the line he could still make a good pairing with McCourty.

I'd go with Green over McDonald.

I'm also starting to think Gronk will be PUPed (regular season) which could open a spot for Cole as we're a little thin at CB with the Dennard situation and Dowling hurt again. Although if Dennard is suspended I believe he doesn't count against the 53.

I'm guessing Mesko over Allen depending on the money Mesko is asking for. If he wants a good size contract we could save some money with the impressive Allen. Mesko is the rare "possible cut" who we might be able to trade for a draft pick.

 

[Jimke]

Good roster.

I'd knock Aiken off to make room for Wilson. As Wilson is better playing closer to the line he could still make a good pairing with McCourty.

I'd go with Green over McDonald.

I'm also starting to think Gronk will be PUPed (regular season) which could open a spot for Cole as we're a little thin at CB with the Dennard situation and Dowling hurt again. Although if Dennard is suspended I believe he doesn't count against the 53.

I'm guessing Mesko over Allen depending on the money Mesko is asking for. If he wants a good size contract we could save some money with the impressive Allen. Mesko is the rare "possible cut" who we might be able to trade for a draft pick.

Don't overlook the fact that Mesko's agent is the Dunn agency that
represented Welker and Hernandez. Bad blood between Bob Kraft and
this agency. They will soon be involved again over Hernandez's
workout bonus money.

 

[Bruins29]

Good roster.



I'm also starting to think Gronk will be PUPed (regular season) .

Having him not practice or play from last playoffs to mid October might be a mistake. Who knows how rusty he could be and that is how players get hurt. They could do it if they are comfortable with Suds, Fells and Hoo and perhaps keep Ford to see what he can do...but with Ballard hobbling Gronk being on the 53 is more likely now.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Don't overlook the fact that Mesko's agent is the Dunn agency that
represented Welker and Hernandez. Bad blood between Bob Kraft and
this agency. They will soon be involved again over Hernandez's
workout bonus money.

Do we know that Dunn's agency still represents Hern-idiot?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good roster.

I'd knock Aiken off to make room for Wilson. As Wilson is better playing closer to the line he could still make a good pairing with McCourty.

I'd go with Green over McDonald.

I'm also starting to think Gronk will be PUPed (regular season) which could open a spot for Cole as we're a little thin at CB with the Dennard situation and Dowling hurt again. Although if Dennard is suspended I believe he doesn't count against the 53.

I'm guessing Mesko over Allen depending on the money Mesko is asking for. If he wants a good size contract we could save some money with the impressive Allen. Mesko is the rare "possible cut" who we might be able to trade for a draft pick.

Suspended players do not count against the 53.

And I've been banging the Ebner drum for a while, and will continue to do so until proven wrong. [This prediction gets rid of too many of the core ST players from last year—Koutouvides, Ebner, Cole, and Tavon Wilson.]

 

[Mack Herron]

Suspended players do not count against the 53.

And I've been banging the Ebner drum for a while, and will continue to do so until proven wrong. [This prediction gets rid of too many of the core ST players from last year—Koutouvides, Ebner, Cole, and Tavon Wilson.]

Excellent point and this is where I think the decisions will be made. Can the new Rutgers guys perform on special teams? I think this roster discounts STs too much.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all of this. We add Wilson and Cole (2 top special teamers). We add veteran depth in Green.

I agree that Mesko is a possible cut.

Good roster.

I'd knock Aiken off to make room for Wilson. As Wilson is better playing closer to the line he could still make a good pairing with McCourty.

I'd go with Green over McDonald.

I'm also starting to think Gronk will be PUPed (regular season) which could open a spot for Cole as we're a little thin at CB with the Dennard situation and Dowling hurt again. Although if Dennard is suspended I believe he doesn't count against the 53.

I'm guessing Mesko over Allen depending on the money Mesko is asking for. If he wants a good size contract we could save some money with the impressive Allen. Mesko is the rare "possible cut" who we might be able to trade for a draft pick.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Ben Volin ?@BenVolin 41s
#Patriots release first depth chart. Pretty much all of the rookies are placed last at their position by default

I was just thinking the other day I always see other teams'"depth charts," but never the Patriots'. Seems kind of silly to me (to make such a thing — basically a team's assessed value of its own players — public) and I'd imagine that's BB's take as well.

 

[ATippett56]

Cut wide receiver Kamar Aiken since I doubt the New England Patriots will carry seven wide receivers on the 53 man roster. Besides, Kamar Aiken may still have practice squad eligibility.

Add either safety Tavon Wilson or safety Nate Ebner in lieu of wide receiver Kamar Aiken. In addition, Steve Gregory is part of the problem and not part of the solution to last season's pass defense woes.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

When is the last time BB kept more offensive players than defensive ones? That's what this mock does -- 26 to 24. That's just not happening as it doesn't make sense -- there is much more substitution of defense than offense so more defense is typically needed. For example, virtually every offensive play has the same QB and 5 offensive linemen, and most have 1 TE and 1 WR who's always out there. On defense, the starting 4 DBs are the only ones who typically are out there each play.

At times last year, we were 23 offense and 27 defense. I'm expecting 24 and 26 to be the likeliest arrangement.

In this case, if what we've heard so far in camp holds true in the preseason games, I think Aiken and one of Fells/Hooman doesn't make it. Probably Fells due to cap charge.

On defense, Ebner makes it as a STOP, and I'd swap out Gregory in favor of Tavon due to cap and special teams value. The last spot gets held as Ballard initially makes the squad, then gets in season IRed, and defensive line depth from outside the organization takes that last spot.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Oh, and since Armtead is NFI, no need to IR him as this gets treated like he's on PUP, if I recall correctly. Vellano hasn't shown anything yet that indicates he makes the team other than pure need. Might keep Cunningham or Buchanan instead and have the outside player be a DT, or get a 2nd outside defensive lineman.

 

[Brady6]

Patriots 53 Man Roster Projection 3.0
By: Steve Balestrieri

Talib has had a fantastic camp; Dennard stood out the first few days as well but hasn't seen much work lately...

CLICK HERE TO READ THIS STORY​

The suggestion to cut last years 2nd rounder who had 41 tackles and 4 interceptions playing 42% of the defensive snaps as a rookie is one of the most irrational things I've ever heard.

Glad to see we're keeping that 3rd string QB that we invested no draft pick in and owe no guaranteed money to, who will likely never see the field.

 

[Deus Irae]

The suggestion to cut last years 2nd rounder who had 41 tackles and 4 interceptions playing 42% of the defensive snaps as a rookie is one of the most irrational things I've ever heard.

Why? He sucked last year and, reportedly, isn't getting it done so far this year. Sure, it seems early to just cut him loose when the likes of Nate Ebner can be cut loose instead, but the team drafted a safety prospect and signed a veteran, as well. Given that, why would you think it's irrational, never mind "one of the most irrational things I've ever heard"?

 

[Brady6]

Why? He sucked last year and, reportedly, isn't getting it done so far this year. Sure, it seems early to just cut him loose when the likes of Nate Ebner can be cut loose instead, but the team drafted a safety prospect and signed a veteran, as well. Given that, why would you think it's irrational, never mind "one of the most irrational things I've ever heard"?

I didn't think he sucked last year at all I thought he was solid, even good for a rookie DB, yes he was beat badly in the Seattle and St Louis but those are the type of rookie mistakes you'd expect. Why do you evaluate his performance as poor?

Also I think the fact that he is playing with the 3rd string unit is being misconstrued for him being in the dog house when in fact it may be more about him playing against a mobile QB (Tebow) because the QB being out of the pocket was a factor on both of those deep throws he was beat on last year.

Considering our receiving core is very undetermined at this point there isn't a tremendous variance between the 3 strings of receivers at this point as well, but making decisions facing a mobile QB is a very essential skill for a safety in the NFL.

 

[Deus Irae]

I didn't think he sucked last year at all I thought he was solid, even good for a rookie DB, yes he was beat badly in the Seattle and St Louis but those are the type of rookie mistakes you'd expect. Why do you evaluate his performance as poor?

Because his performance warrants such an evaluation.

Also I think the fact that he is playing with the 3rd string unit is being misconstrued for him being in the dog house when in fact it may be more about him playing against a mobile QB (Tebow) because the QB being out of the pocket was a factor on both of those deep throws he was beat on last year.

You may, or may not, be right, but you're just guessing.

Considering our receiving core is very undetermined at this point there isn't a tremendous variance between the 3 strings of receivers at this point as well, but making decisions facing a mobile QB is a very essential skill for a safety in the NFL.

You're guessing again here, and on an irrelevant point. What I was addressing in your post was the notion that cutting Wilson would be, in your words, "one of the most irrational things I've ever heard". I'm not saying that I expect him to get cut. What I'm asking you is how you get to your position.

Or, to put it another way:

McCourty's the team's best safety and isn't going anywhere.

Gregory's cap hit makes him a tough cut to swallow, while cutting him next year is a lesser issue, and he does have enough ability to be a backup in the NFL.

A. Wilson was sought out and signed by the team in the offseason, and has been playing ahead of T. Wilson.

Harmon was drafted in the 3rd round this year, and BB hasn't exactly got a long history of cutting 3rd rounders in their first training camp.

If T. Wilson were in the #5 spot, and there were a numbers issue, I'd expect him to win out against Ebner, which is why I currently don't see Ebner making the team. However, that likelihood is a far cry from making a T.Wilson cut irrational, IMO, especially if the team found someone else among the future league cuts.

Brady getting cut would fit your position, or Wilfork and some others. Wilson, though? That's not anywhere near that level.

 

[Brady6]

Because his performance warrants such an evaluation.



You may, or may not, be right, but you're just guessing.



You're guessing again here, and on an irrelevant point. What I was addressing in your post was the notion that cutting Wilson would be, in your words, "one of the most irrational things I've ever heard". I'm not saying that I expect him to get cut. What I'm asking you is how you get to your position.

Or, to put it another way:

McCourty's the team's best safety and isn't going anywhere.

Gregory's cap hit makes him a tough cut to swallow, while cutting him next year is a lesser issue, and he does have enough ability to be a backup in the NFL.

A. Wilson was sought out and signed by the team in the offseason, and has been playing ahead of T. Wilson.

Harmon was drafted in the 3rd round this year, and BB hasn't exactly got a long history of cutting 3rd rounders in their first training camp.

If T. Wilson were in the #5 spot, and there were a numbers issue, I'd expect him to win out against Ebner, which is why I currently don't see Ebner making the team. However, that likelihood is a far cry from making a T.Wilson cut irrational, IMO, especially if the team found someone else among the future league cuts.

Brady getting cut would fit your position, or Wilfork and some others. Wilson, though? That's not anywhere near that level.

Granted I may be overstating with referring to it as irrational, but my reasoning was more about keeping Tebow or another player highly unlikely to see the field but releasing a player who contributed on defense and special teams as a rookie.

I tend to disagree that his performance was poor last year; but I don't claim to know as much about football as you do so I very well could be wrong, but I will say I will watch his performance in the preseason at lot closer because you pointed that out hoping to understand and assess his actual play more accurately than apparently I have thus far.

P.S. I was guessing on the things you mentioned

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Gregory's cap hit makes him a tough cut to swallow, while cutting him next year is a lesser issue, and he does have enough ability to be a backup in the NFL.

If they cut him, his dead money is $800K this year and $800K next year, compared to $2.2M and $3.2M if he stays on the roster.

Given that they were willing to eat $3.5M to dump Brandon Lloyd, I hardly think that $800K/$800K makes Gregory a "tough cut to swallow."

 

[Brady6]

If they cut him, his dead money is $800K this year and $800K next year, compared to $2.2M and $3.2M if he stays on the roster.

Given that they were willing to eat $3.5M to dump Brandon Lloyd, I hardly think that $800K/$800K makes Gregory a "tough cut to swallow."

Here's the thing I don't understand is even if Ebner great special teams player is he so great that he provides more value than say a Gregory who is a good special teams player and a good depth safety?

It appears to me we put a lot of stock into special teams for a team that finished middle of the pack in basically every components in terms of coverage.