Our Defense leading AFC in what stat...?

[Ring 6]

the D needs to get off the field on 3rd down at some point to allow a top offense to score points.

The difference between the worst 3td down d andan average 3rd down d is one conversion per game.
In other words theget off the field 3 plays later one time a game.

 

[Ring 6]

I just don't get how the stats can rank us 30th in the red zone, yet 2nd in points allowed.

1) not all points are scored from the red zone. A td from the 21 is not a red zone chance or score
2) red zone ranking is percentage. If your d allows 20 tds in 30 red zone trips and mine allows 6 in 8 over the same number of games your red zone d is ranked higher

 

[FourierSeries]

the D needs to get off the field on 3rd down at some point to allow a top offense to score points.

The offense has been on the field plenty enough to put up an average of 34 points since Brady's return. That hasn't been an issue.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

It's like saying that the only stat in baseball that truly matters is runs scored.

It sounds good, but it's not really true.

To make this an absolutely absurd example, imagine a team dominating time of possession, taking forever to move the ball down field, limiting your opportunities to possess the ball so much that you only get 4 possessions - 2 in each half. And let's say the other team manages to score 17 points in those long four possessions. You look at the end of the day and say, wow, great, our team only allowed 17 points - they must have done a good job!

But of course, they didn't. They allowed 2 TD and a FG in just four enemy possessions. And your own offense, as good as it may be, only comes up with 14 points (2 td in 4 possessions), and you lose 17-14.

Obviously an extreme illustration, but it captures the point well enough - there's more to a good defense than simply reducing the number of points the other team scores. Bad defense also prevents your own offense from having more opportunities to score, and that may very well matter.

I think the second SB against the Giants was a less extreme example of this. The Pats' offense wasn't great, but the defense "only" allowed 21 points, but the Patriots only got 9 possessions, as the Giants kept the ball for 15 minutes (a full quarter) more than the Patriots, thus dominating the flow of the game. And yes, that mattered in the end.

The problem is the Giants only ran 9 more plays than the Patriots. They turned a 14% difference in plays into a 66% difference in time. The defense can't control how much time is used per play, so it's not right to lay that on them.

If you look at points per drive the Patriots offense performed almost a point worse than regular season and the defense performed almost half a point worse. Both underperformed majorly; the offense went from one of the most efficient to an average one and the defense went from a bottom defense to one of the worst. If you compare them based purely on that game the defense was worse, but if you compare them based on expectations the offense was.

Regardless comparing a bottom 10 defense to a top 5 just doesn't hold water. This defense is good and it will be good.

 

[mosslost]

Time of possession overrated stat. If it only takes me 1 minute to score TDs, and it takes you 6 minutes to get FGs, I destroy you and you win TOP by tons.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

This is not entirely true. It's the most important but hardly the only.

Bill has said 'Points Allowed' is the most important D stat. He seems to care much less about 'Yards Allowed', while that's the stat most commonly linked to the number one defense.

He has also stated (about a billion times) that the stat most closely linked to wins/losses is turnover differential.

 

[Deus Irae]

I just don't get how the stats can rank us 30th in the red zone, yet 2nd in points allowed.

At this point, worrying about the red zone defense is sort of picking nits. The Patriots aren't just among the leaders in points scored per game. The are also among the best in the NFL at defensive points per drive, behind only the Vikings and Seahawks. Speaking of Minnesota, they are the #1 scoring defense, but they're only 22nd in red zone defense. If the Patriots ranking stays this bad over the course of the entire season, that'll be the time to worry but, right now, it's safe for the fans to just consider it just a statistical quirk.

 

[PF_SU]

Listing a few stats where the 2014/2015 defenses were after their sixth game:

2014
Points per game: 21.5 (11th)
Redzone attempts per game: 3.3 (16th)
Redzone percentage: 55% (16th)
Yards per game: 319.5 (5th)
Yards per play: 5.2 (8th)
First downs per game: 19.7 (12th)
Third downs conversions per game: 5.2 (11th)
Third down percentage: 43.66% (20th)
Rushing yards per game: 111.0 (15th)
Yards per rush: 4.2 (18th)
Passing yards per game: 208.5 (3rd)
Yards per attempt: 6.4 (8th)
Passer Rating: 84.3 (9th)

2015
Points per game: 21.0 (12th)
Redzone attempts per game: 2.8 (9th)
Redzone percentage: 64.71% (28th)
Yards per game: 358.5 (15th)
Yards per play: 5.4 (13th)
First downs per game: 21.3 (24th)
Third downs conversions per game: 6.0 (29th)
Third down percentage: 42.86% (28th)
Rushing yards per game: 110.0 (19th)
Yards per rush: 4.5 (24th)
Passing yards per game: 248.5 (18th)
Yards per attempt: 6.5 (9th)
Passer Rating: 89.2 (14th)

2016
Points per game: 15.2 (2nd)
Redzone attempts per game: 2.3 (5th)
Redzone percentage: 71.43% (29th)
Yards per game: 347.0 (13th)
Yards per play: 5.4 (13th)
First downs per game: 20.7 (16th)
Third downs conversions per game: 5.7 (26th)
Third down percentage: 44.16% (27th)
Rushing yards per game: 92.0 (9th)
Yards per rush: 3.7 (9th)
Passing yards per game: 255.0 (18th)
Yards per attempt: 6.7 (13th)
Passer Rating: 89.9 (15th)

 

[ivanvamp]

Time of possession overrated stat. If it only takes me 1 minute to score TDs, and it takes you 6 minutes to get FGs, I destroy you and you win TOP by tons.

If, if, if. I agree... IF. But the problem was, the Patriots did NOT score like that. They had 9 possessions in that last Giants Super Bowl, and only scored three times. So of course a lot of the blame pie goes to the offense, but the defense didn't get them the ball very much.

Football is, of course, a team game, and each unit helps or hurts the other ones. It's all intertwined. I'm just pointing out that points allowed may be the most obviously helpful measure of a defense's quality, but it's not the ONLY stat that matters. Just like runs scored isn't the only stat that matters in baseball, and points scored isn't the only stat that matters in basketball.

 

[mosslost]

If, if, if. I agree... IF. But the problem was, the Patriots did NOT score like that. They had 9 possessions in that last Giants Super Bowl, and only scored three times. So of course a lot of the blame pie goes to the offense, but the defense didn't get them the ball very much.

Football is, of course, a team game, and each unit helps or hurts the other ones. It's all intertwined. I'm just pointing out that points allowed may be the most obviously helpful measure of a defense's quality, but it's not the ONLY stat that matters. Just like runs scored isn't the only stat that matters in baseball, and points scored isn't the only stat that matters in basketball.

I totally agree. I blame SB 46 on the Offense. Everyone always talks about how that SB is one that our D sucked and it was a miracle we were even there. IMO that is the one we should have won more so than SB 42. (Though I think we should have won that one as well) SB 42 the whole game just felt brutal, like the Giants were up to the task, right until our final TD. Ironically in that game once we were up 14-10 I was TOTALLY confident we had it. One miracle pass and lack of holding call and dropped INT and we would have. But I did not think anything other than the Giants showed up and nailed us. SB 46, we gave them 2 points and the ball early, right after the D made them punt on their first possession. And our Offense was great that year. The D was not terrible in that game. Other than the Manningham pass, remember by the end of that drive we were practically begging them to run it into the end zone to give Brady time. (So that is like 19 points minus a given away TD at the end really) SB 46 is the one that we basically gave away. It all evens out though, we could easily have lost all the 4 we won (especially 36 and 49)