WaterfallJumper
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
- Joined
- Apr 6, 2009
- Messages
- 8,438
- Reaction score
- 18,072
Hello friends!
I've been incredibly busy this year. My wife and I welcomed our third child into the world a few months ago, plus I'm working on a side business, so I haven't had a moment to catch my breath. Usually I research and post about the draft pretty intensively, but I haven't had time to keep up like I usually do. Seriously -- I don't even know the exciting small school sleepers this year. With only one week to go, however, I wanted to jot down a couple thoughts. Don't expect anything too profound.
Likely I've got this all wrong, but here goes. After a few days of frantic catching up with the roster and draft prospects, the way I see positional need and availability intersect is something like this:
Needs Priority
TE
WR
S
EDGE
DT
ILB
K
OL
Market Scarcity
ILB
TE
S
EDGE
DT
WR
K
OL
Opportunity Costs
If Delpit, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Murray/Harrison, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Murray, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Kmet, then no Murray/Harrison, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
This could go on ad infinitum of course. What's clear to me is that 1) trading down is the way to go, 2) giving up a 2nd for Sanu (I player I like just fine) was far too rich, and 3) that we're not going to fix the roster purely in one draft/FA cycle. I'd try to get a good player at a hard-to-find position. For me that probably comes down to Delpit or Murray in the first round if there's no trade-down. With a trade, I'd target Asiasi/Kmet in the second and third rounds and go from there.
With such a deep WR class, I wouldn't make it a priority, unless there's a chance to get a surefire upgrade. There are simply too dire of needs elsewhere (like the black hole of misery that is tight end). As much as I like the potential of guys like Mims and Claypool, I don't know that they'd displace any of the starters just yet. Reagor, on the other hand, could play either Z or X, and could make a terrific long term Edelman replacement. His routes need work, but his burst and tough running are great.
My Preferences (AKA Still in Play Without Trades)
This isn't a well-vetted big board; I didn't do thorough enough work for that this year. These are just players I like the best at each position. My absolute favorites are in bold. This is not comprehensive. I like other players and I'm adding to the list by the day.
(Oh, and if they perform well this coming season, they were probably on my list after I posted it. Ha.)
ILB: Brooks, Harrison, Gay (character ?)
TE: Asiasi, Moss, Hopkins, Pinkney
S: Muse, JR Reed, Hudson
EDGE: Zuniga, Lewis, Robinson, Jennings, Taylor, Wonnum, K. Khareem
DT: Fotu, Lawrence, Hamilton, R. Williams, Davis, Elliot
WR: Reagor, Hamler, J. Reed, Hightower, Claypool, DPJ, J. Johnson, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Dunvernay, J.D. Spielman, Bowden
K: Blankenship, Vinatieri
OL: Cleveland, Biadasz (medical?), Niang, Hennessy, I. Wilson, Charles (character?), Anchrum, A. Taylor, Runyan, Durant
Example Draft
Fairly happy with this one, although I know I just got lucky with the way the simulator shook out:
New England Patriots
Pick Player Position College
1:23 Jalen Reagor WR Texas Christian
3:23 Malik Harrison LB Ohio State
3:34 Anfernee Jennings EDGE Alabama
3:36 Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
4:19 Leki Fotu NT Utah
5:26 Alex Taylor OT South Carolina
6:16 Devin Asiasi TE UCLA
6:26 Rodrigo Blankenship K Georgia
6:33 Tremayne Anchrum G Clemson
6:34 Tanner Muse SS Clemson
7:16 Jon Runyan G Michigan
7:27 Jordan Elliot DL Missouri
I'd be sad not to get Zuniga, but that's another story.
You'll notice no QBs. I'm not a believer in most of them past Tua and Burrow. Some of them may be good, but I just haven't done enough work on them. That's basically how I feel about this entire class. I just don't know enough to know what I don't know!
Back to my hermitage. See you all in a week!
I've been incredibly busy this year. My wife and I welcomed our third child into the world a few months ago, plus I'm working on a side business, so I haven't had a moment to catch my breath. Usually I research and post about the draft pretty intensively, but I haven't had time to keep up like I usually do. Seriously -- I don't even know the exciting small school sleepers this year. With only one week to go, however, I wanted to jot down a couple thoughts. Don't expect anything too profound.
Likely I've got this all wrong, but here goes. After a few days of frantic catching up with the roster and draft prospects, the way I see positional need and availability intersect is something like this:
Needs Priority
TE
WR
S
EDGE
DT
ILB
K
OL
Market Scarcity
ILB
TE
S
EDGE
DT
WR
K
OL
Opportunity Costs
If Delpit, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Murray/Harrison, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Murray, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Kmet, then no Murray/Harrison, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
This could go on ad infinitum of course. What's clear to me is that 1) trading down is the way to go, 2) giving up a 2nd for Sanu (I player I like just fine) was far too rich, and 3) that we're not going to fix the roster purely in one draft/FA cycle. I'd try to get a good player at a hard-to-find position. For me that probably comes down to Delpit or Murray in the first round if there's no trade-down. With a trade, I'd target Asiasi/Kmet in the second and third rounds and go from there.
With such a deep WR class, I wouldn't make it a priority, unless there's a chance to get a surefire upgrade. There are simply too dire of needs elsewhere (like the black hole of misery that is tight end). As much as I like the potential of guys like Mims and Claypool, I don't know that they'd displace any of the starters just yet. Reagor, on the other hand, could play either Z or X, and could make a terrific long term Edelman replacement. His routes need work, but his burst and tough running are great.
My Preferences (AKA Still in Play Without Trades)
This isn't a well-vetted big board; I didn't do thorough enough work for that this year. These are just players I like the best at each position. My absolute favorites are in bold. This is not comprehensive. I like other players and I'm adding to the list by the day.
(Oh, and if they perform well this coming season, they were probably on my list after I posted it. Ha.)
ILB: Brooks, Harrison, Gay (character ?)
TE: Asiasi, Moss, Hopkins, Pinkney
S: Muse, JR Reed, Hudson
EDGE: Zuniga, Lewis, Robinson, Jennings, Taylor, Wonnum, K. Khareem
DT: Fotu, Lawrence, Hamilton, R. Williams, Davis, Elliot
WR: Reagor, Hamler, J. Reed, Hightower, Claypool, DPJ, J. Johnson, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Dunvernay, J.D. Spielman, Bowden
K: Blankenship, Vinatieri
OL: Cleveland, Biadasz (medical?), Niang, Hennessy, I. Wilson, Charles (character?), Anchrum, A. Taylor, Runyan, Durant
Example Draft
Fairly happy with this one, although I know I just got lucky with the way the simulator shook out:
Pick Player Position College
1:23 Jalen Reagor WR Texas Christian
3:23 Malik Harrison LB Ohio State
3:34 Anfernee Jennings EDGE Alabama
3:36 Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
4:19 Leki Fotu NT Utah
5:26 Alex Taylor OT South Carolina
6:16 Devin Asiasi TE UCLA
6:26 Rodrigo Blankenship K Georgia
6:33 Tremayne Anchrum G Clemson
6:34 Tanner Muse SS Clemson
7:16 Jon Runyan G Michigan
7:27 Jordan Elliot DL Missouri
I'd be sad not to get Zuniga, but that's another story.
You'll notice no QBs. I'm not a believer in most of them past Tua and Burrow. Some of them may be good, but I just haven't done enough work on them. That's basically how I feel about this entire class. I just don't know enough to know what I don't know!
Back to my hermitage. See you all in a week!