One Week Out: My late-to-the-party draft thoughts

[WaterfallJumper]

Hello friends!

I've been incredibly busy this year. My wife and I welcomed our third child into the world a few months ago, plus I'm working on a side business, so I haven't had a moment to catch my breath. Usually I research and post about the draft pretty intensively, but I haven't had time to keep up like I usually do. Seriously -- I don't even know the exciting small school sleepers this year. With only one week to go, however, I wanted to jot down a couple thoughts. Don't expect anything too profound.

Likely I've got this all wrong, but here goes. After a few days of frantic catching up with the roster and draft prospects, the way I see positional need and availability intersect is something like this:


Needs Priority

TE
WR
S
EDGE
DT
ILB
K
OL


Market Scarcity

ILB
TE
S
EDGE
DT
WR
K
OL


Opportunity Costs

If Delpit, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Murray/Harrison, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Murray, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Kmet, then no Murray/Harrison, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc

This could go on ad infinitum of course. What's clear to me is that 1) trading down is the way to go, 2) giving up a 2nd for Sanu (I player I like just fine) was far too rich, and 3) that we're not going to fix the roster purely in one draft/FA cycle. I'd try to get a good player at a hard-to-find position. For me that probably comes down to Delpit or Murray in the first round if there's no trade-down. With a trade, I'd target Asiasi/Kmet in the second and third rounds and go from there.

With such a deep WR class, I wouldn't make it a priority, unless there's a chance to get a surefire upgrade. There are simply too dire of needs elsewhere (like the black hole of misery that is tight end). As much as I like the potential of guys like Mims and Claypool, I don't know that they'd displace any of the starters just yet. Reagor, on the other hand, could play either Z or X, and could make a terrific long term Edelman replacement. His routes need work, but his burst and tough running are great.


My Preferences (AKA Still in Play Without Trades)

This isn't a well-vetted big board; I didn't do thorough enough work for that this year. These are just players I like the best at each position. My absolute favorites are in bold. This is not comprehensive. I like other players and I'm adding to the list by the day.

(Oh, and if they perform well this coming season, they were probably on my list after I posted it. Ha.)


ILB: Brooks, Harrison, Gay (character ?)

TE: Asiasi, Moss, Hopkins, Pinkney

S: Muse, JR Reed, Hudson

EDGE: Zuniga, Lewis, Robinson, Jennings, Taylor, Wonnum, K. Khareem

DT: Fotu, Lawrence, Hamilton, R. Williams, Davis, Elliot

WR: Reagor, Hamler, J. Reed, Hightower, Claypool, DPJ, J. Johnson, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Dunvernay, J.D. Spielman, Bowden

K: Blankenship, Vinatieri

OL: Cleveland, Biadasz (medical?), Niang, Hennessy, I. Wilson, Charles (character?), Anchrum, A. Taylor, Runyan, Durant



Example Draft

Fairly happy with this one, although I know I just got lucky with the way the simulator shook out:

New England Patriots
Pick Player Position College
1:23 Jalen Reagor WR Texas Christian
3:23 Malik Harrison LB Ohio State
3:34 Anfernee Jennings EDGE Alabama
3:36 Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
4:19 Leki Fotu NT Utah
5:26 Alex Taylor OT South Carolina
6:16 Devin Asiasi TE UCLA
6:26 Rodrigo Blankenship K Georgia
6:33 Tremayne Anchrum G Clemson
6:34 Tanner Muse SS Clemson
7:16 Jon Runyan G Michigan
7:27 Jordan Elliot DL Missouri

I'd be sad not to get Zuniga, but that's another story.

You'll notice no QBs. I'm not a believer in most of them past Tua and Burrow. Some of them may be good, but I just haven't done enough work on them. That's basically how I feel about this entire class. I just don't know enough to know what I don't know!

Back to my hermitage. See you all in a week!

 

[captain stone]

Welcome back, we've missed your input...and Congratulations on your third child too! (Babies: Nothing Better)

Completely agree with your take on QBs...drafting one again this year is a waste of resources IMO...just sign some UDFA & a vet street free agent for camp arms to add to Stid & Hoyer...

I like most of the names mentioned, including Alex Taylor as a developmental prospect, but we also need an OLman with Center experience/potential, and I'm not sure how much of that either Anchrum or Runyan provide...

And I also like Tanner Muse as somebody who can provide snaps as a 3rd-down LB...We really need speed & athleticism there, and he & Malik Harrison would go a long way to replenishing that particular cupboard...

 

[Mark Morse]

Hello friends!

I've been incredibly busy this year. My wife and I welcomed our third child into the world a few months ago, plus I'm working on a side business, so I haven't had a moment to catch my breath. Usually I research and post about the draft pretty intensively, but I haven't had time to keep up like I usually do. Seriously -- I don't even know the exciting small school sleepers this year. With only one week to go, however, I wanted to jot down a couple thoughts. Don't expect anything too profound.

Likely I've got this all wrong, but here goes. After a few days of frantic catching up with the roster and draft prospects, the way I see positional need and availability intersect is something like this:


Needs Priority

TE
WR
S
EDGE
DT
ILB
K
OL


Market Scarcity

ILB
TE
S
EDGE
DT
WR
K
OL


Opportunity Costs

If Delpit, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Murray/Harrison, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Murray, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Kmet, then no Murray/Harrison, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc

This could go on ad infinitum of course. What's clear to me is that 1) trading down is the way to go, 2) giving up a 2nd for Sanu (I player I like just fine) was far too rich, and 3) that we're not going to fix the roster purely in one draft/FA cycle. I'd try to get a good player at a hard-to-find position. For me that probably comes down to Delpit or Murray in the first round if there's no trade-down. With a trade, I'd target Asiasi/Kmet in the second and third rounds and go from there.

With such a deep WR class, I wouldn't make it a priority, unless there's a chance to get a surefire upgrade. There are simply too dire of needs elsewhere (like the black hole of misery that is tight end). As much as I like the potential of guys like Mims and Claypool, I don't know that they'd displace any of the starters just yet. Reagor, on the other hand, could play either Z or X, and could make a terrific long term Edelman replacement. His routes need work, but his burst and tough running are great.


My Preferences (AKA Still in Play Without Trades)

This isn't a well-vetted big board; I didn't do thorough enough work for that this year. These are just players I like the best at each position. My absolute favorites are in bold. This is not comprehensive. I like other players and I'm adding to the list by the day.

(Oh, and if they perform well this coming season, they were probably on my list after I posted it. Ha.)


ILB: Brooks, Harrison, Gay (character ?)

TE: Asiasi, Moss, Hopkins, Pinkney

S: Muse, JR Reed, Hudson

EDGE: Zuniga, Lewis, Robinson, Jennings, Taylor, Wonnum, K. Khareem

DT: Fotu, Lawrence, Hamilton, R. Williams, Davis, Elliot

WR: Reagor, Hamler, J. Reed, Hightower, Claypool, DPJ, J. Johnson, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Dunvernay, J.D. Spielman, Bowden

K: Blankenship, Vinatieri

OL: Cleveland, Biadasz (medical?), Niang, Hennessy, I. Wilson, Charles (character?), Anchrum, A. Taylor, Runyan, Durant



Example Draft

Fairly happy with this one, although I know I just got lucky with the way the simulator shook out:

New England Patriots
Pick Player Position College
1:23 Jalen Reagor WR Texas Christian
3:23 Malik Harrison LB Ohio State
3:34 Anfernee Jennings EDGE Alabama
3:36 Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
4:19 Leki Fotu NT Utah
5:26 Alex Taylor OT South Carolina
6:16 Devin Asiasi TE UCLA
6:26 Rodrigo Blankenship K Georgia
6:33 Tremayne Anchrum G Clemson
6:34 Tanner Muse SS Clemson
7:16 Jon Runyan G Michigan
7:27 Jordan Elliot DL Missouri

I'd be sad not to get Zuniga, but that's another story.

You'll notice no QBs. I'm not a believer in most of them past Tua and Burrow. Some of them may be good, but I just haven't done enough work on them. That's basically how I feel about this entire class. I just don't know enough to know what I don't know!

Back to my hermitage. See you all in a week!

Extensive work ... thanks. I don't like Blankenship and would rather sign Vimatieri as an UDFA. Alex Taylor flat out cannot play at the NFL level. He was completely overwhelmed in the Senior Bowl game and practices, and that was just against his peers, nevermind NFL caliber players.

 

[captain stone]

Extensive work ... thanks. I don't like Blankenship and would rather sign Vinatieri as a UDFA. Alex Taylor flat out cannot play at the NFL level. He was completely overwhelmed in the Senior Bowl game and practices, and that was just against his peers, nevermind NFL caliber players.

This board might explode if that happens...

 

[zimmy]

Good stuff.

I would love an upgrade at receiver but I'm not sure it's that high up the needs list compared to TE or LB. Firstly we can send out Harry, Edelman and Sanu. Even if their ceiling might not be high it'll be tough for a rookie to break past that group. Secondly, there are plenty of veteran receivers still out there, as well as good depth in the draft so I'm not convinced they go high here.

Equally TE is a desperate need but I'm not convinced there isn't a rookie in this draft who can come in and help that much this year. I still think they will cobble this together with a veteran trade/uninspiring free agent, a mid round developmental pick and LeCosse.

LB and DL seems a big need to me. We have Hightower and Bentley and nothing else on the inside. And both have shown that they can't be relied on to play 16 games. They desperately need to find another 3 down LB. Add in the fact this is Hightower's last year possibly and getting a youth injection is needed. The DL also needs another 3-4 end in my view, although it depends on what they think of Cowart.

Finally there is a sneaky need on the o-line. Andrews is a question mark, and we don't know if Thuney (or Cannon) will be here long term. Wynn also needs to stay healthy. They currently have no backup center at all and who knows if Andrews will be ready for training camp.
At the very least they need to spend a decent pick on a C/G option, as well as a developmental tackle.

And we all know the QB situation. They will likely pick another one in the mid rounds.

My needs priority is therefore:

LB
TE
OL
DL
WR
QB

My prediction for the draft is that Pats fans lose their mind as the first three picks are spent on the front 7 and o-line (after a trade down). We then take a QB in that 3-4th round area and a mid round WR and TE.

 

[Rdforty2]

Good stuff.

I would love an upgrade at receiver but I'm not sure it's that high up the needs list compared to TE or LB. Firstly we can send out Harry, Edelman and Sanu. Even if their ceiling might not be high it'll be tough for a rookie to break past that group. Secondly, there are plenty of veteran receivers still out there, as well as good depth in the draft so I'm not convinced they go high here.

Equally TE is a desperate need but I'm not convinced there isn't a rookie in this draft who can come in and help that much this year. I still think they will cobble this together with a veteran trade/uninspiring free agent, a mid round developmental pick and LeCosse.

LB and DL seems a big need to me. We have Hightower and Bentley and nothing else on the inside. And both have shown that they can't be relied on to play 16 games. They desperately need to find another 3 down LB. Add in the fact this is Hightower's last year possibly and getting a youth injection is needed. The DL also needs another 3-4 end in my view, although it depends on what they think of Cowart.

Finally there is a sneaky need on the o-line. Andrews is a question mark, and we don't know if Thuney (or Cannon) will be here long term. Wynn also needs to stay healthy. They currently have no backup center at all and who knows if Andrews will be ready for training camp.
At the very least they need to spend a decent pick on a C/G option, as well as a developmental tackle.

And we all know the QB situation. They will likely pick another one in the mid rounds.

My needs priority is therefore:

LB
TE
OL
DL
WR
QB

My prediction for the draft is that Pats fans lose their mind as the first three picks are spent on the front 7 and o-line (after a trade down). We then take a QB in that 3-4th round area and a mid round WR and TE.

I agree with the needs at TE and LB. I also agree that its going to be tough for a rookie receiver to beat out the top 3. But, WR is a spot where its tough to find an immediate starter, that produces like a starter. Thats a reason why we should grab a WR. Sanu is a free agent after the year, and Edelman will be 35 in '21. Getting a talented guy and preparing him for a bigger role next year is a need IMO. I think TE and front 7 is a bigger need, though.

On that thought, I think it applies to TE as well. It is tough to see a rookie tight end make an immediate impact. Look at Hockenson last year. A top 10 pick and he had some issues. Thats always going to be the case. Immediate impact is not a reason to pass on TE. You'd be passing on TE every year. Its important to get a talented player and get him ready to go as soon as possible. This is the biggest mistake Bill has made recently. Gronk was rumored to retire a full year before he did, and we didn't prepare a replacement. The offense sorely missed a consistent threat at TE last year. We have to grab one this year, even if he doesn't make a massive impact.

As for the OL. things do depend on what the team is able to do with Thuney. There's no reason we can't keep him if we want to. But we do have a developmental tackle in Yodny Cajuste. We also do have a potential backup center in Hjalte Froholdt. Last years #4. Not saying he's a roster lock, or a guaranteed starter, merely pointing out the cupboard is not entirely bare. There is a talented, young body in house at the position. I think we'll see offensive linemen taken on day 3, and I'm good with that. I just think with our top picks on day 1 and 2, we have bigger needs. TE, DL, Lb, and WR.

 

[borisman]

Welcome back, we've missed your input...and Congratulations on your third child too! (Babies: Nothing Better)

Completely agree with your take on QBs...drafting one again this year is a waste of resources IMO...just sign some UDFA & a vet street free agent for camp arms to add to Stid & Hoyer...

I like most of the names mentioned, including Alex Taylor as a developmental prospect, but we also need an OLman with Center experience/potential, and I'm not sure how much of that either Anchrum or Runyan provide...

And I also like Tanner Muse as somebody who can provide snaps as a 3rd-down LB...We really need speed & athleticism there, and he & Malik Harrison would go a long way to replenishing that particular cupboard...

Surprised you didn't condemn the entire draft due to a Kicker being on the list
I don't know how BB will go without picking a QB after losing TB12 and only signing Hoyer.
Other than that I like the draft though BB will likely not pick a WR that early.

 

[captain stone]

Surprised you didn't condemn the entire draft due to a Kicker being on the list ...

I didn't have the heart to tell him, being a new dad and all...

 

[scott99]

Hello friends!

I've been incredibly busy this year. My wife and I welcomed our third child into the world a few months ago, plus I'm working on a side business, so I haven't had a moment to catch my breath. Usually I research and post about the draft pretty intensively, but I haven't had time to keep up like I usually do. Seriously -- I don't even know the exciting small school sleepers this year. With only one week to go, however, I wanted to jot down a couple thoughts. Don't expect anything too profound.

Likely I've got this all wrong, but here goes. After a few days of frantic catching up with the roster and draft prospects, the way I see positional need and availability intersect is something like this:


Needs Priority

TE
WR
S
EDGE
DT
ILB
K
OL


Market Scarcity

ILB
TE
S
EDGE
DT
WR
K
OL


Opportunity Costs

If Delpit, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Murray/Harrison, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Murray, then no Kmet/Trautman, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc
If Kmet, then no Murray/Harrison, Reagor/Hamler/Mims, Delpit/McKinney, YGM/Weaver/Baun, etc

This could go on ad infinitum of course. What's clear to me is that 1) trading down is the way to go, 2) giving up a 2nd for Sanu (I player I like just fine) was far too rich, and 3) that we're not going to fix the roster purely in one draft/FA cycle. I'd try to get a good player at a hard-to-find position. For me that probably comes down to Delpit or Murray in the first round if there's no trade-down. With a trade, I'd target Asiasi/Kmet in the second and third rounds and go from there.

With such a deep WR class, I wouldn't make it a priority, unless there's a chance to get a surefire upgrade. There are simply too dire of needs elsewhere (like the black hole of misery that is tight end). As much as I like the potential of guys like Mims and Claypool, I don't know that they'd displace any of the starters just yet. Reagor, on the other hand, could play either Z or X, and could make a terrific long term Edelman replacement. His routes need work, but his burst and tough running are great.


My Preferences (AKA Still in Play Without Trades)

This isn't a well-vetted big board; I didn't do thorough enough work for that this year. These are just players I like the best at each position. My absolute favorites are in bold. This is not comprehensive. I like other players and I'm adding to the list by the day.

(Oh, and if they perform well this coming season, they were probably on my list after I posted it. Ha.)


ILB: Brooks, Harrison, Gay (character ?)

TE: Asiasi, Moss, Hopkins, Pinkney

S: Muse, JR Reed, Hudson

EDGE: Zuniga, Lewis, Robinson, Jennings, Taylor, Wonnum, K. Khareem

DT: Fotu, Lawrence, Hamilton, R. Williams, Davis, Elliot

WR: Reagor, Hamler, J. Reed, Hightower, Claypool, DPJ, J. Johnson, Aiyuk, V. Jefferson, Dunvernay, J.D. Spielman, Bowden

K: Blankenship, Vinatieri

OL: Cleveland, Biadasz (medical?), Niang, Hennessy, I. Wilson, Charles (character?), Anchrum, A. Taylor, Runyan, Durant



Example Draft

Fairly happy with this one, although I know I just got lucky with the way the simulator shook out:

New England Patriots
Pick Player Position College
1:23 Jalen Reagor WR Texas Christian
3:23 Malik Harrison LB Ohio State
3:34 Anfernee Jennings EDGE Alabama
3:36 Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
4:19 Leki Fotu NT Utah
5:26 Alex Taylor OT South Carolina
6:16 Devin Asiasi TE UCLA
6:26 Rodrigo Blankenship K Georgia
6:33 Tremayne Anchrum G Clemson
6:34 Tanner Muse SS Clemson
7:16 Jon Runyan G Michigan
7:27 Jordan Elliot DL Missouri

I'd be sad not to get Zuniga, but that's another story.

You'll notice no QBs. I'm not a believer in most of them past Tua and Burrow. Some of them may be good, but I just haven't done enough work on them. That's basically how I feel about this entire class. I just don't know enough to know what I don't know!

Back to my hermitage. See you all in a week!

I like this draft. But I’d be shocked (pleasantly) if Kmet lasted until the third round. I’m a HUGE Malik Harrison fan, great pick, LOVE Jalen Reagor.

 

[manxman2601]

Congrats @reamer on your happy news.

 

[everlong]

Congrats Reamer. Like you I haven't had the time but I see a lot of similar names on our lists.

BTW, Hamler and Muse are two I took on my list because they also have special teams value.

 

[primetime]

Congrats on the third reamer!

 

[bakes781]

Congrats on the hat trick! I've got a 5 year old and I'm good. No mas!

I too haven't spent much time on this year's class. As far as needs vs value go; I think the one that seems to align perfectly IMO is Center. As much as I love the guy we can't rely on Andrews to comeback 100% ever again. We are likely trading Thuney on draft day. And the one guy that seems to be a solid late 1st-early 2nd grade is Cesar Ruiz. Whoever the post-Brady era QB is he will need a solid stud at center.

The other position of great need that can filled early is LB/DE. Malik and Jennings are a must. I also like Highsmith.

TE is going to be tough. I was hoping we had a shot at Hooper but obviously the price was too high. I've got my eye on a mid round guy Colby Parkinson.

I want to give Stidham a year to show if he can be the man before we write him off. That said I'm willing to take a 7th round flier on a guy like Tyler Huntley.