Oficial Post Game Thread- Pats beat the Cardinals

[denverpatsfan]

Cam is awful. Any competent QB would have won that game by double digits. Happy for the defense. They held that high powered offense to essentially 3 points. 14 were a direct result of Cams poor play. Get ready for an ugly road trip and a harsh dose of reality

 

[sb1]

Cam is awful. Any competent QB would have won that game by double digits. Happy for the defense. They held that high powered offense to essentially 3 points. 14 were a direct result of Cams poor play. Get ready for an ugly road trip and a harsh dose of reality

I expect it to play out like this
@ LAC - W
@ LAR - L
@ MIA - W
BUF - L
NYJ - W

8-8. Maybe 9-7 if the Bills lock up the division and have nothing to play for.

 

[TheRainMaker]

N'Keal Harry with another monster game.

Joking aside, what a terrible game from Newton.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

You actually get discredited for it. When you develop JC Jackson and he surpasses a draft choice and outplays that draft slot you are criticized by the idiot patrol for destroying the team with that draft pick.
So when you build the best franchise in history and draft picks have to compete for a job, you did a bad job drafting

In the big picture I'd still take a bunch of All Pro guys who magically show up from the undrafted or 6th/7th round pool. It's amazing how many times we find guys like that.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

N'Keal Harry with another monster game.

Joking aside, what a terrible game from Newton.

Question for me is do we cut NKeal Harry now or wait till end of the season.

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[jah]

I expect it to play out like this
@ LAC - W
@ LAR - L
@ MIA - W
BUF - L
NYJ - W

8-8. Maybe 9-7 if the Bills lock up the division and have nothing to play for.

I think we've got a real shot against Buffalo considering how close we were to beating them on the road. I still expect the same wins and losses that you're projecting though.

 

[PP2]

@ashley1992, looks like you are correct that James White was the one who messed up the blitz pickup on Cam's first INT. He mentioned it in his post-game interview.

 

[denverpatsfan]

I expect it to play out like this
@ LAC - W
@ LAR - L
@ MIA - W
BUF - L
NYJ - W

8-8. Maybe 9-7 if the Bills lock up the division and have nothing to play for.

Love to see them beat the playoff bound Bills.

 

[lancerman]

Agreed. Luck was supposed to be "can't miss" and that was a mixed return for Indy at best.

21/40 players picked in the Top 10 between 2015-2018 made the Pro Bowl, so that's about half. Among those Pro Bowlers are illustrious Top 10 QB picks such as Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, and Mitch Trubisky. Pardon me if I pass on tanking for a coin flip.

Luck was only mixed because he got injured and his career ended.

Pretty much every full year he played but 2016 he was a Pro Bowler. He made the playoffs his first year on the team, he advanced to the divisional the next year, the year after he made the AFCCG. Peyton would not win a playoff game or make a conference title game until about 6 years in. Luck only lost in the playoffs to the 2012 Ravens who won the SB, the 2013 Patriots who made the AFCCG, the 2014 Patriots who won the SB, and the 2018 Chiefs who made the AFCCG in his breakout year. That’s not exactly failing in the playoffs. He lost to legit SB contenders. He had a 40 TD season 3 years in. Peyton took 7 years to do it, Brady took 7 years to do it.

The only issue with Luck was injuries.

Drafting a QB is a coin flip either way however this is just the reality of the situation on draft hits based on data (I’ll find the study later because I’m going off a prior post I made).

1st-16th pick: 81% success rate.

17th-32nd: 65

2nd round: 48%

3rd round: 25%

4th round 13%

5th round 6%

6th round 16%

7th round 6%

That data is from 2016. Since then Mahomes, Mayfield, Allen, Murray, Burrow and Herbert were top 10. No QB drafted below that in the ensuing years is currently starter quality. So it probably shifted that even more.

Around 75% - 80% of the leagues current starters are top 32 picks, the majority of that being either top 10 or top half the draft (I forget which)

You are never getting a guaranteed thing, but every team has to do it to succeed long term.

The reality is it literally becomes a coin flip the minute it’s outside the top 16 and it becomes worse than a coin flip after the first round and dramatically worse

 

[lancerman]

I expect it to play out like this
@ LAC - W
@ LAR - L
@ MIA - W
BUF - L
NYJ - W

8-8. Maybe 9-7 if the Bills lock up the division and have nothing to play for.

Miami is one game behind Buffalo and then they are only two games out from KC and PIT for seeding

 

[Ring 6]

In the big picture I'd still take a bunch of All Pro guys who magically show up from the undrafted or 6th/7th round pool. It's amazing how many times we find guys like that.

The point is the bottom line is what you accomplish not how you got there.

 

[Ring 6]

Miami is one game behind Buffalo and then they are only two games out from KC and PIT for seeding

Miami is 4 games behind Pittsburgh

 

[MoreBellhorn]

I would like to have Cousins for a couple of years, but he’s had the luxury of having one of the best backs in the league to rely on. He is far better than Cam, though.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Question for me is do we cut NKeal Harry now or wait till end of the season.

.

If he wasn't a 1st round pick, he would've been cut at the same time as Sanu.

 

[notex]

Still 2 games out of a wildcard spot need these wins to correspond with losses from Miami and others

 

[Ring 6]

and why do we pay do terrible on the road?

Huh?

 

[jmt57]

4 TDs and 9 INTs after 11 games must be a record.

The four passing touchdowns may indeed be on pace for a record low in our era for a starting quarterback.

Here are the most recent league-lowest team totals for passing touchdowns in a season.

16 -- 2019 -- Broncos (10 Int)
13 -- 2018 -- Bills (23 Int)
13 -- 2017 -- Colts (9 Int), Bears (12 Int)
14 -- 2016 -- Rams (20 Int)
11 -- 2015 -- Rams (11 Int)
12 -- 2014 -- Browns (16 Int)
13 -- 2013 -- Jets (22 Int)
8 --- 2012 -- Chiefs (20 Int)
9 --- 2011 -- Rams (10 Int)
9 --- 2010 -- Panthers (21 Int)

Through Week 12 the Patriots as a team have an NFL-low six passing touchdowns. The Giants ranked 31st with eight, and the Jets were 30th with nine. (None of those three had a passing touchdown today.)

The 2012 Chiefs split time between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn; the 2011 Rams had three starters, with Sam Bradford getting the most starts (10); the 2010 Panthers had three starters, led by Jimmy Clausen (ten starts, throwing for 3 TD and 9 picks).

While the Pats as a team should (hopefully) surpass the 2012 KC total, Newton may indeed be on his way for the fewest passing touchdowns by a quarterback to start 15 games in single season in NFL history. (The NFL moved to a 16-game season in 1978, and from 12 to 14 games in 1961.)




As for the TD/Interception ratio, that's not even a franchise record.

Joe Kapp had 3 TD and 17 picks with the Pats, a single season record of Patriot Passing Putridness that will never be surpassed.
He was 2 /14 before having an improved 1 TD/2 Int performance in his 11th and final game of the season.
Incredible, considering he was a Pro Bowl QB that went to the Super Bowl the previous season.

Don Trull went 1 TD / 7 picks way back in three games in Babe Parilli's final Pats season back in the AFL days.

Marc Wilson had a 6:11 ratio in the year of the Lisa Olson incident, and the following season Hugh Millen was 9 TD to 18 Int.



Elsewhere I can think of a few more recent epic failures.

2017: Deshone Kizer had 11 TD and 22 picks. Talk about draft busts: a 2nd round pick in 2017, he played in just three games in 2018 and has not been more than a practice squad body since then.

2015: Peyton Manning was close to a wrong-way 2:1 ratio, throwing nine TD with 17 picks. That may be the worst ever for a QB on a good team; Denver went 12-4 despite The Forehead that year.

2013: Several QBs had more picks than TDs, though none were worse than 2:1 except for Blaine Gabbert (1:7). Geno Smith (12:21), Eli (18:27), Terrelle Pryor (7:11), Joe Flacco (19:22), Matt Schaub (10:14) and a few others threw more picks than TDs.

2012: The Chiefs had two starting quarterbacks both claiming a spot on the 1:2 mark of infamy list. Matt Cassel was the season starter, finishing with 6 TD and 12 picks. Brady Quinn took over midseason and went 2 TD/8 Int, and never again played in the NFL. John Skelton was even worse, with 2 TD & 9 picks in six starts for Arizona.

Going further back there is Ryan Leaf's epic failure as a rookie, throwing two touchdown passes against 15 interceptions in 1998.

JaMarcus Russell went 3 TD/11 Int in 2009 for the Raiders, his third and final season in the NFL.

Andrew Walter was another Raider, a 3rd round pick in 2005. In '06 he threw 3 TD against 13 interceptions. His last NFL stop was in the 2009 Pats training camp, where he had the audacity to be upset that Belichick chose to go with Brian Hoyer over him as the backup QB.

On to Carolina. Jimmy Clausen went 3:9 in ten games for the Panthers in 2010, and Chris Weinke was 11:19 as a rookie in 2001.

Rick Mirer was adequate in his first three seasons in Seattle, then in '96 he threw 1 TD versus 9 picks in the first five games before being benched. He had to return as the starter later in the season due to injuries, and ended up with 5 TD/12 interceptions.

I shudder to think of how close we came to the Patriots ending up with Mirer rather than Drew Bledsoe. We can thank the immortal Jeff Carlson for taking an inexcusable sack in the last game of the 1992 season for that, proof that sometimes losing is better than winning.



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[TheRainMaker]

Harry is the popular player to hate, but I've moved on from him as he's old news. But when will the plug be pulled on John Simon? What dirt does he have on Bill? All he does is run by the pile after the play is over to seem like he had a part in it. If we're lucky he'll occasionally bat down a pass.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm assuming you're talking about Stid?

While I don't disagree, you'd think if Bill had faith in him he'd be playing by now? He must think Cam is a better option. Also, he started Hoyer over Stid during the Chiefs game. He at the very least probably isn't ready yet.

What does your guessing about what is going in belichick head have to do with my point?
my point was the guy who says Stidham has gotten chances is wrong, and the guy trying to use those 4 Ints to define his play, career and potential is being very short sighted.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

Harry should be moved to TE. That’s his last saving grace. He’ll be out of the league within the next year otherwise.