This fact will take a handful of days to fully sink in, as we went from potentially wrapping up the #1 seed with a victory on Sunday to potentially having the #3 seed with a loss on Sunday, all within 24 hours.
JAX opened as -11 point favorites for their upcoming game, so I’m thinking we’d be down to two games as a possibility. When you factor in the week 17 game vs TEN (who I don’t take seriously and are barely favored over the 3-10 Niners), we’re down to one game. When you factor in the week 16 game vs SF, things start getting dicey real quickly.
Edit: and I do think that having to potentially go to Pittsburgh for the AFCCG could be problematic, even as a #2 seed with a bye. Here is an article stating just how dominant the Steelers have been when having back to back home games. Roethlisberger pretty much becomes a totally different QB.
Numbers don't lie: Ben Roethlisberger tough to beat at home - USA TODAY
Numbers don't lie: Ben Roethlisberger tough to beat at home — Steelers Wire
Don't get me wrong Sup, there's a notable odds hit to being the #2 seed and if the AFCCG ends up being an away game (being the #2 seed doesn't mean for sure the AFCCG will be an away game). However, it's the difference between a hill and a mountain between the #2 seed ve not getting a bye at all. Hypotheticals based on current seeding(and my best current guess):
Bye (#1 Seed): KC/Ravens/Titans in Foxboro(my guess is Ravens), Pitt in Foxboro, SB
Bye (#2 seed): Jags in Foxboro, Pitt in Pitt, SB
No Bye (#3 seed): Buff/Ravens/Titans in Foxboro, Jags in Jax, Pitt in Pitt, SB
That's a definite difference between #1 and #2 but a huge difference between #2 and #3. I believe in the BB era (again is memory serves me correctly): get #2 and SB entry is near 50%, #1 and it is near 66%, #3 or worse 0%).
I think me and you are close to on the same page, however, I still like our odds, slightly, in Pitt IF we bring our A game.
IMHO what was exposed in this game [1]dared us to throw long but the Patriots couldn't make them pay for it at least a couple of times(a few long completions can force a D to step back), [2] receivers couldn't win enough one on on battles (man to man coverage can't be that easy), [3] Brady was forced outside his comfort zone/targets and he wasn't able to connect to non comfort targets (this exacerbated the O's struggle quite a bit).
One game is one game -- it's never as bad as it seems after one game (just as it's never this "unbeatable" before a winning streak ends). But the pass game has GOT to have some better adjustments to what the Phins were doing on D or the odds are considerably more unfavorable for each seed scenario.