NextGen says there was a 45% probability for Folk. Going on 4th and 3 seems to be some weird ex post facto consensus "go for it" conclusion... after the game. (see below.)
You go for it and don't make it, then what? Game over man. which is more likely, the 46% play (I actually dont believe that), or the 4-and-3 play? Not 4th and inches mind you, 4th and 3 - NextGen actually says 4th and 4.4 "according to ball-tracking data".
Let's factor in the fact that IF we had 1 positive yard rushing by then, the 3 we needed to pick up would be triple our total on the day. But we didn't, of course. We
totaled -1 yard rushing.
No matter. We could then pass it on 4th and 3, with the game on the line, and the opponent knowing we were passing.
NextGen stats says
Conversion probability:
- Folk had a 45.1 percent chance of making a 56-yard field goal, according to our field-goal probability model, which takes into account real-time weather and humidity data.
- If the Patriots had gone for it -- with 4.4 yards to go, as measured by ball-tracking data -- their chances of converting were 52.3 percent.
Should Bill Belichick have been more aggressive on fourth down in the Patriots' loss to Tom Brady and the Bucs? The NGS team breaks down Week 4's biggest decisions.
www.nfl.com
My quibble is, I don't know what O-line their software was plugging in to give us a 52 percent chance of picking up the 4.4 yards (?!!)
Mac was hot at that point, and perhaps they're factoring that in, but just
no. What it looks like to me, frankly, is just plugging in a reasonable 4th down percentage, not factoring in that there was no running game, reducing the play to a single dimension.
(I dunno, I wake up to see that guys like NextGen are trying to beat this woulda coulda shoulda drum... I guess from all the gameday/post-gameday comments, it's the natural conclusion. "I woulda shoulda coulda called X because the Pats called Y and it didn't work." I am surprised NextGen's "in on it," because I just don't believe the Pats are some sort of lock to make that conversion.