Game Day Thread Official Pats at Bills Playoff Pregame Discussion Thread

[Rob0729]

I really want to be positive and optimistic, but just not feeling it after that Miami fiasco. Can anyone help with reasons why we are going to win? Master Belichick game plan? We really are that 7-win streak team? Jonnu breaks out? Bills are chokers? Help!

I think people are underplaying the weather. I think it is going to be a big factor tomorrow night. Maybe even as big as it was in the first match up. You look at games with extreme cold and the passing offense are non-existent.

In the Pats-Titans game, neither Steve McNair or Tom Brady passed for 150 yards.

The Vikings-Seahawks game had both Russell Wilson (201 yards) and Teddy Bridgewater (210 yards) throw for about 200 yards between them and only one passing TD a game. That is well below Russell Wilson's average (264 YPC) that year and they were heating the footballs with the sideline heaters which is against the rules and won't happen tomorrow night.

In January 2008, Favre played like crap and won the Giants. He threw for 236 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. That is below his average in yards. Manning completed only 50% of his passes in that game.

Add the fact that Allen has a history of poor play in the cold (2-7 in games under 38 degrees) and has a circulation problem, the cold could be a great equalizer. I think the Pats of pre-bye week could go into Buffalo and potentially win in any weather. But with the cold, the Bills' passing game could be grounded and that gives the Patriots of the last month a decent chance of pulling the upset.

 

[Rob0729]

Yeah, I don’t think blitzing Allen a lot is going to be the answer. We can mix in a few because we need to confuse him, but it probably shouldn’t be a staple of the game plan.
1. He’s very good against the blitz.
2. We are vulnerable in the secondary this week. We know that’s REALLY true if mills and/or dugger are out. And they have multiple wrs who can get open quick. Blitzing leaves them exposed.

I am not saying blitz a lot, but they need to mix it up. Pressuring Allen is the key to game no matter how you do it.

But I don't know if Allen this year was as good vs. the blitz last year. Last year he was amazing against the blitz. Best in the NFL. But I think he has had more problems against the blitz this year.

 

[amfootball]

I am not saying blitz a lot, but they need to mix it up. Pressuring Allen is the key to game no matter how you do it.

But I don't know if Allen this year was as good vs. the blitz last year. Last year he was amazing against the blitz. Best in the NFL. But I think he has had more problems against the blitz this year.

The issue for our secondary is we can't man up. We don't have the personnel to blitz and fall back in man. Allen will eat us alive.

 

[gitgronked82]

I am not saying blitz a lot, but they need to mix it up. Pressuring Allen is the key to game no matter how you do it.

But I don't know if Allen this year was as good vs. the blitz last year. Last year he was amazing against the blitz. Best in the NFL. But I think he has had more problems against the blitz this year.

Yeah, I agree they'll need to mix it up. we probably don't have the talent vs their WRs to just outplay them straight up all day in man.

I'd be interested to see the stats on Allen. Not sure where to find them

 

[amfootball]

I think people are underplaying the weather. I think it is going to be a big factor tomorrow night. Maybe even as big as it was in the first match up. You look at games with extreme cold and the passing offense are non-existent.

In the Pats-Titans game, neither Steve McNair or Tom Brady passed for 150 yards.

The Vikings-Seahawks game had both Russell Wilson (201 yards) and Teddy Bridgewater (210 yards) throw for about 200 yards between them and only one passing TD a game. That is well below Russell Wilson's average (264 YPC) that year and they were heating the footballs with the sideline heaters which is against the rules and won't happen tomorrow night.

In January 2008, Favre played like crap and won the Giants. He threw for 236 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. That is below his average in yards. Manning completed only 50% of his passes in that game.

Add the fact that Allen has a history of poor play in the cold (2-7 in games under 38 degrees) and has a circulation problem, the cold could be a great equalizer. I think the Pats of pre-bye week could go into Buffalo and potentially win in any weather. But with the cold, the Bills' passing game could be grounded and that gives the Patriots of the last month a decent chance of pulling the upset.

A lot of wind is not expected so I don't think it will be a factor like the last time we played there a few weeks ago. But the cold and possibly snow definitely helps us for sure.

 

[Rob0729]

The issue for our secondary is we can't man up. We don't have the personnel to blitz and fall back in man. Allen will eat us alive.

You can blitz out of the zone. The Pats do it all the time. Zone blitzes (although not called because of the coverage) is usually called in zone coverage since the d-back that is blitzing can do it more effectively (and the blitz can be better disguised) when he isn't manned up on a receiver. Plus if say a CB blitzes and and his man goes in motion, then the CB cannot follow him which leaves the receiver totally open and telegraphs the blitz.

 

[Rob0729]

A lot of wind is not expected so I don't think it will be a factor like the last time we played there a few weeks ago. But the cold and possibly snow definitely helps us for sure.

History shows that extreme cold significantly hinders the passing game though. It affects the ball as much in different ways. The ball doesn't travel as far in extreme cold and it is much harder to grip. It also affects reaction times. Which gives advantage for short quick passes that the Pats throw.

There has only been a handful of games in NFL history as cold or colder than the game tomorrow night. None of them had good passing. Some had awful passing.

When Allen passed in the first game, he didn't have a lot of problems. But with his history with the cold, he may have more problems tomorrow night throwing the ball than he did back in December in Buffalo.

 

[amfootball]

History shows that extreme cold significantly hinders the passing game though. It affects the ball as much in different ways. The ball doesn't travel as far in extreme cold and it is much harder to grip. It also affects reaction times. Which gives advantage for short quick passes that the Pats throw.

There has only been a handful of games in NFL history as cold or colder than the game tomorrow night. None of them had good passing. Some had awful passing.

When Allen passed in the first game, he didn't have a lot of problems. But with his history with the cold, he may have more problems tomorrow night throwing the ball than he did back in December in Buffalo.

It depends if he takes the check downs like he did vs us in Foxboro. He will have Beasely for this game too so I hope Bryant is not on him. Their RBs ate us alive in the flat too.

 

[Rob0729]

It depends if he takes the check downs like he did vs us in Foxboro. He will have Beasely for this game too so I hope Bryant is not on him. Their RBs ate us alive in the flat too.

That was because he had 4-5 seconds to throw on every down. I would rather blitz Allen and get pressure on him than take my chances that he will find a receiver open when he has all day to throw the ball.

If you watch the game, Bryant wasn't nearly as bad in coverage as people think. But if you give a good QB like Allen 4 seconds to throw, he is going to find an open man. You give Allen 4 seconds against a zone coverage, it is going to eat the defense alive like he did in the game in Foxboro.

People complain about the coverage in that game, but problem was the pass rush. Allen was never pressured or contained in the pocket. He was roll out right where he is most dangerous. And he time to eat a sandwich before he threw the ball on most downs.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

History shows that extreme cold significantly hinders the passing game though. It affects the ball as much in different ways. The ball doesn't travel as far in extreme cold and it is much harder to grip. It also affects reaction times. Which gives advantage for short quick passes that the Pats throw.

Poppy ****! Roger Goodell has assured us that the ideal gas law does not exist on NFL fields!

 

[amfootball]

That was because he had 4-5 seconds to throw on every down. I would rather blitz Allen and get pressure on him than take my chances that he will find a receiver open when he has all day to throw the ball.

If you watch the game, Bryant wasn't nearly as bad in coverage as people think. But if you give a good QB like Allen 4 seconds to throw, he is going to find an open man. You give Allen 4 seconds against a zone coverage, it is going to eat the defense alive like he did in the game in Foxboro.

People complain about the coverage in that game, but problem was the pass rush. Allen was never pressured or contained in the pocket. He was roll out right where he is most dangerous. And he time to eat a sandwich before he threw the ball on most downs.

Sure. But Judon is hobbling. We really don't much of a rush and if you bring a 5th or 6th guy then I think Allen will kill us in man. I do think we have to mix it up but I would imagine that Bill didn't hate what happened last game. We forced Allen to be patient and work the ball down the field. It almost worked if JC holds on to that pick in the 4th.

 

[venecol]

2) The Miami game needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Much better Patriots teams have lost to much worse Dolphin teams historically down there. It sucks that we lost, and there were some things that pissed me off about how it happened, but I almost chuck those games out when trying to evaluate this team every year, because it's the freakin' twilight zone down there.

It's not so much the MIA game, but that the team ended the season going 1-3. Not ideal. BUF ended it 4-0.

3) I don't think the Bills are chokers by any means. But the playoffs are almost a different game, and you just don't know how some players will/won't react to the atmosphere and pressure. This isn't to say that should make you think the Pats are going to automatically play better, but that once you get in the dance, unless you're someone like Tom Brady who has a massive track record of coming through, it really is "Everyone is 0-0".

Bills were in the Championship game just last season with almost the exact same skill players, so I doubt they'll be feeling pressure as much as players like Mac, Barmore, Stevenson, Dugger, Bryant, Uche, Onwenu, and Herron, or even Myers and Harris who never played a snap in the 2019 WC game.

 

[Rob0729]

Sure. But Judon is hobbling. We really don't much of a rush and if you bring a 5th or 6th guy then I think Allen will kill us in man. I do think we have to mix it up but I would imagine that Bill didn't hate what happened last game. We forced Allen to be patient and work the ball down the field. It almost worked if JC holds on to that pick in the 4th.

If you cannot get a pass rush, you can drop 11 into coverage and Allen going to find someone open. The Patriots' offense is built on getting pressure on the QB to hide the deficiencies in the secondary. That is why they went back to a zone base.

Again, I would rather take my chances sending five guys and forcing Allen rid of the ball quickly than sending only four and giving 4-5 seconds to throw.

The Bills didn't punt last game. They had two drops in the red zone/end zone which turned two TDs into field goals. Plus a TD called back because of an ineligible man down field. In the two drives they didn't score TDs, it was because of screw ups by the Bills. But they still scored on those drives.

Allen marched down the field with ease. That game could have been an absolute blow out and the only reason it wasn't was because the Bills' receivers screwed up. Allen threw for 314 yards and 3 TDs. Could have been 5 TDs. If Bill didn't hate what went on in that game on defense, the Pats might as well concede that the Bills are going to score 28 plus point tomorrow night and put the game on Mac Jones' shoulders because that is the only way the Pats win unless the cold stops Allen. I will argue that was the Patriots' worst defensive performance all season.

 

[Marko]

@Rob0729
Also check out this play:


And this commentary/visual

This tells me Allen had too much time

 

[venecol]

Yeah, I agree they'll need to mix it up. we probably don't have the talent vs their WRs to just outplay them straight up all day in man.

I'd be interested to see the stats on Allen. Not sure where to find them

Allen was pressured 185 times (25.7%) but only sacked 26 times. He scrambled 48 times for an avg. of 9.6 yds. Not sure what his completion % was when being pressured, but the low # of sacks and high # of succesful scrambles tells me he handles pressure well.

 

[amfootball]

The other issue with pressuring Allen is he can also get outside and run. If we don't contain the edge which we have had issues doing then he can eat us up with his legs.

 

[Sicilian]

It's not so much the MIA game, but that the team ended the season going 1-3. Not ideal. BUF ended it 4-0.

Bills were in the Championship game just last season with almost the exact same skill players, so I doubt they'll be feeling pressure as much as players like Mac, Barmore, Stevenson, Dugger, Bryant, Uche, Onwenu, and Herron, or even Myers and Harris who never played a snap in the 2019 WC game.

All true, which is why the Bills are (and should be) favored. But there's no reason to think the Patriots can't play a good game and beat them on Saturday. This isn't the 86 Bears, or 04 Patriots, or even the best team in a very flawed AFC. And my Miami comment was in direct response to the poster using the "Miami fiasco" as a reason to feel down on the team, which is why I referenced it in a vacuum.

 

[Toofy]

I certainly don’t want to overstay my welcome. So if people want me to stop posting for a while, i’ll do so.

I thought you brought in fresh perspectives and were pretty civil in your discussions. And you should root and support your team, that's what fans are for... As a fan sometimes you feel the need to have opposing viewpoints but personally I did not feel you were overstaying.

We are not used to being considered underdogs against you guys , so sometimes those feelings vent out against your team and indirectly you...if you can take that sportively we should be fine I guess.

 

[venecol]

This tells me Allen had too much time

That tells me Allen doesn't even need to step into his throws. He can fling a line drive 35 yards just with his arm. When he steps in, he throws lasers.

 

[captain stone]

**** this guy too.