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NFL Week 6 Games

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NFL Week 6 Odds, Predictions and Picks against the spread

John Morgan

Right now Alex Smith is the NFL MVP for 2017. The previously maligned quarterback is leading the league in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and passer rating. The additions of Tyreek Hill in 2016 and rookie Kareem Hunt this year certainly hel

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Interestingly, the Jets-Pats spread hasn't changed since the announcement that Gilmore is OUT. It's still NE -9/-9.5, same as it was mid-week.
 
Interestingly, the Jets-Pats spread hasn't changed since the announcement that Gilmore is OUT. It's still NE -9/-9.5, same as it was mid-week.
Considering Rowe is also out you would think that would cause some movement, but not the case here. I'm thinking that is due in large part to the opponent's passing game. People are figuring that Josh McCown to Jermaine Kearse and Robby Anderson are not going to suddenly get appreciably better. Probably a different situation had the opponent been Green Bay, Atlanta, etc.

On the other hand maybe it's a case of people thinking the Patriot pass defense can't get any worse, either.... 76% of the money as of now is on the Pats to cover the spread.


Lines that have moved:

Atlanta opened as a 9 point favorite vs Miami.
Now up to 13½.

New Orleans opened -3½, went up to as high as 5½.
Now back down to 4 or 4½ depending where you shop, versus Detroit.

Washington at one time was -9.
Now -11 versus San Francisco.

Bucs-Arizona has fluctuated between Ariz -1 to TB -2½.

Raiders had been as high a -5 vs Chargers, now -3

Denver began -10 vs NYG, now -12½.

A few offshore sites finally put Tenn-Indy on the board, with the Titans -8 (quickly down to -7½).



Most one-sided spread dollars:

Packers 78%, Vikings 22%
Patriots 76%, Jets 24%
Falcons 67%, Dolphins 33%
Broncos 66%, Giants 34%
Bucs 66%, Cardinals 34%
Chargers 64%, Raiders 36%
 
Bears 10, Ravens 3 -- Halftime
Tarik Cohen with a 21 yard halfback option pass to Zach Miller for a TD.
Trubisky: 2-7, 29 yards.
Flacco: 14-22, 94 yards, 4.3 ypa, 1 INT, 2 sacks
3rd Down: Ravens 1-9, Bears 2-7
 
Falcons 17, Dolphins 0 -- Halftime
3rd Down: Atl 4-6, Miami 1-4 (and 0-1 on 4th)
Ryan: 15-21, 151 yards, 7.2 ypa, 1 TD
Cutler: 8-14, 64 yards, 4.6 ypa, 1 INT
Freeman: 77 yards from scrimmage (7 carries, 66 yards)
Ajayi: 11 rushes, 71 yards, 6.5 ypc
 
Texans 24, Browns 3 -- Halftime
Watson: 9-16, 154 yards, 9.6 ypa, 2 TD
Kevin Hogan: 11-21, 78 yards, 3.7 ypa, 3 INT, 21.6 passer rating
Yards per Play: Texans 7.2, Browns 3.8
Total Yards: Texans 223, Browns 137
 
Saints 31, Lions 10 -- Halftime
Brees: 12-14, 148 yards, 10.6 ypa, TD, 134.5 passer rating.
Stafford: 11-17, 149 yards, 8.3 ypa, TD
Mark Ingram: 14 carries, 83 yards, 5.9 ypc, 2 TD
Ameer Abdullah: 8 carries, 46 yards, 58 ypc
Ted Ginn: 4 receptions on 4 targets, 66 yards, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 4 receptions on 4 targets, 88 yards, 1 TD
Stafford with two fumbles. One on a great play by LB Craig Robertson, leaping to prevent Stafford from throwing the pass and then knocking the ball out of his hand.
Total # of punts: 2 (1 by each team).
 
Packers putting up a good fight without rodgers. Embarrassing if the Vikings don't find a way to win that game.
 
Texans 24, Browns 3 -- Halftime
Watson: 9-16, 154 yards, 9.6 ypa, 2 TD
Kevin Hogan: 11-21, 78 yards, 3.7 ypa, 3 INT, 21.6 passer rating
Yards per Play: Texans 7.2, Browns 3.8
Total Yards: Texans 223, Browns 137

The browns really stink!
 
Redskins 17, 49ers 0 -- Halftime
Brian Hoyer (4-11, 34 yards) benched.
CJ Beathard: 6-14, 89 yards.
Cousins: 15-21, 201 yards, 9.6 ypa, 2 TD, 1 INT
Chris Thompson: 118 yards from scrimmage (8-26 rushing, 3-92 receiving).
Time of possession: Wash 20:37, SF 9:23
Total Yards: Wash 249, SF 139
 
Vikings 14, Packers 10 -- Halftime
Aaron Rodgers carted off field with a shoulder injury!
Case Keenum: 13-22, 137 yards, 6.2 ypa, 1 TD, 1 INT
Brett Hundley: 4-8, 43 yards, 5.4 ypa, 1 TD, 1 INT
Adam Thielen: 5 receptions, 55 yards.
-> First Downs: Vikings 17, Packers 4
 
Dolphins hanging with the falcons. Falcons need to score here.
 
Aaron Rodgers most likely out for the season, broken collar bone.

Thank god our o-line is much better than theirs.
 
Aaron Rodgers becomes the first major victim of 2017 NFL's horrendous offensive line play.

For those of you with Rodgers, David Johnson and Odell Beckham on your fantasy football team who thought you were on your way to a record setting championship season on Labor Day, condolences.
 
Looks like the falcons might be looking ahead. Having problems against jay cutler and the doofins.
 
Bears 17, Ravens 10 -- start of 4th quarter
Would be 17-3 if not for Bobby Rainey kickoff return for a TD. Appeared to be down but was knocked down by a teammate and never touched by a Chicago player. Got up to score Baltimore's only TD. Ravens 3-2 record looking like what it was - propped up by easy opponents. Blowing great opportunity to take lead in AFC North.
 
Falcons 17, Dolphins 17 -- 8:34 left to play.

After an Atlanta 3-and-out Miami goes 51 yards in five plays to draw within 3. Cutker with two touchdowns as Miami has scored on consecutive drives.

Falcons are forced to punt, and Dolphins get the ball back on a botched punt.

Miami settles for a FG but ties the score midway through 4th quarter.
 
Texans 33, Browns 10 -- 11:00 to play in 4th

Cleveland finally scores a TD as Jason McCourty goes 56 yards on a pick-six.

Browns possessions:
Punt (8 plays, 24 yards)
FG (4 plays, 4 yards)
INT (TD for Houston)
INT
Punt (3 plays, 6 yards)
Punt (3 plays, 0 yards)
INT
Halftime (score 24-3)
Punt (3 plays, 3 yards)
Safety (3 plays, -3 yards)
Punt (5 plays, 18 yards)
Punt (5 plays, 21 yards)
 
Saints 45, Lions 24 -- start of 4th quarter.

New Orleans with two defensive touchdowns (one fumble, one interception).

Turnovers: Lions 3, Saints 2

New Orleans: 172 yards rushing. Detroit's DT Haloti Ngata went on IR earlier this week.

Mark Ingram: 123 yards from scrimmage. 4 receptions, 27 yards; 18 carries, 96 yards, 5.3 ypc, 2 TD.
 
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