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If Newton was going to be that guy he would have shown it by now. He isn't if he plays well this year we should trade him for value. I don't think Stiddy is the guy either. If he is they wouldn't have got Newton. This is a dead year. Could still be fun to watch at times, but we aren't winning.
My point is year 2 matters and year 3 doesn't. Cut bait before year 3. Holding out hope that year 3 will be different just doesn't pay off in my analysis. GMs are almost certainly wasting that precious year and not trading a guy while they could still get value.
Look at these 2 options and see what I mean
A) Hold on for that 3rd year? 99% failure rate and no value on the prospect. Lose 1 year.
B) Trade before 3rd year. Save 1 year. Get value back. Draft again in an area where a prospect has a 10-11% rate of hitting.
Keep in mind I have no proof that 99% failure rate. It could be a little lower. But certain it isn't as good as drafting again. There is no reason to hold on past year 2 from a value perspective and I think the evidence backs that up.