SITE MENU
If Newton was going to be that guy he would have shown it by now. He isn't if he plays well this year we should trade him for value. I don't think Stiddy is the guy either. If he is they wouldn't have got Newton. This is a dead year. Could still be fun to watch at times, but we aren't winning.
My point is year 2 matters and year 3 doesn't. Cut bait before year 3. Holding out hope that year 3 will be different just doesn't pay off in my analysis. GMs are almost certainly wasting that precious year and not trading a guy while they could still get value.
Look at these 2 options and see what I mean
A) Hold on for that 3rd year? 99% failure rate and no value on the prospect. Lose 1 year.
B) Trade before 3rd year. Save 1 year. Get value back. Draft again in an area where a prospect has a 10-11% rate of hitting.
Keep in mind I have no proof that 99% failure rate. It could be a little lower. But certain it isn't as good as drafting again. There is no reason to hold on past year 2 from a value perspective and I think the evidence backs that up.