Matt Miller: Brady will re-sign with Patriots

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Dec 6th

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PatsFanInVa

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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Arithmetic is tough.

1-1 is one chance in 2 or 50% odds
2-1 is one chance in 3 or 33% odds
3-1 is one chance in 4 or 25% odds
4-1 is one chance in 5 or 20% odds
5-1 is one chance in 6 or 16% odds

Yang voter right here
 

Joker

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and now for Joe Kerr's remedial math class....2+2= You can screw...how ya' like them calculations?
 

TommyBrady12

Hall of Fame Poster
Brady is just testing the market. He'll come back to Bill with his market value in a few weeks...giving him permission to talk to other teams is the smartest thing the Pats could do. Without Brady, other FAs won't sign here. With Brady, we can land a couple of good/great FAs. Need to sign him quick once FA starts though.
 

primetime

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Arithmetic is tough.

1-1 is one chance in 2 or 50% odds
2-1 is one chance in 3 or 33% odds
3-1 is one chance in 4 or 25% odds
4-1 is one chance in 5 or 20% odds
5-1 is one chance in 6 or 16% odds

To be fair, maybe Triumph just bets on horses where odds are just a representation of the claim you're buying into on the total betting pool less the track's cut. Of course, his numbers still wouldn't be accurate, but...
 

TheRainMaker

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
So now there’s a rumor floating that Cannon could retire? With Scar gone, uncertainty of Andrews, Thuney probably leaving and Cannon possibly retiring Brady will come back to the Pats with no continuity at O-line and WR?

 

scott99

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Brady is just testing the market. He'll come back to Bill with his market value in a few weeks...giving him permission to talk to other teams is the smartest thing the Pats could do. Without Brady, other FAs won't sign here. With Brady, we can land a couple of good/great FAs. Need to sign him quick once FA starts though.
Actually letting Brady talk to other teams is dumb, because it’s an automatic cap hit of 13 mill if he doesn’t sign before FA. Get him signed before that, and it’s 6.5 mill. Add 20 mill to that and pay him 26.5. Tell him they’ll try their best to get weapons in FA, but I’m sure he understands, doesn’t mean they could always land those players. Once Brady is signed, gives the Pats a better chance of landing FAs.
 

TommyBrady12

Hall of Fame Poster
Actually letting Brady talk to other teams is dumb, because it’s an automatic cap hit of 13 mill if he doesn’t sign before FA. Get him signed before that, and it’s 6.5 mill. Add 20 mill to that and pay him 26.5. Tell him they’ll try their best to get weapons in FA, but I’m sure he understands, doesn’t mean they could always land those players. Once Brady is signed, gives the Pats a better chance of landing FAs.

So they can let him talk with other teams and then sign him before FA begins and save on the cap hit...big deal. The Pats are basically letting Brady hit FA early...it benefits them. It would only suck if the two sides drag this out past March 18.
 
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mgteich

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The acceleration of Brady's bonus isn't really all that relevant.

1) $6.75M is on the 2020 cap no matter what.

2) If we sign another QB instead of Brady, $6.75M of 2021 dead money would be moved into 2020. So, we could pay the QB $6.75M less and be even with signing Brady.

3) Even if we signed an expensive QB, we would just need to defer $6.75M more somewhere else.
 

supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Actually letting Brady talk to other teams is dumb, because it’s an automatic cap hit of 13 mill if he doesn’t sign before FA. Get him signed before that, and it’s 6.5 mill. Add 20 mill to that and pay him 26.5. Tell him they’ll try their best to get weapons in FA, but I’m sure he understands, doesn’t mean they could always land those players. Once Brady is signed, gives the Pats a better chance of landing FAs.
Why would Brady sign for 20m dollars? Just curious as to your line of thinking.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

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So now there’s a rumor floating that Cannon could retire? With Scar gone, uncertainty of Andrews, Thuney probably leaving and Cannon possibly retiring Brady will come back to the Pats with no continuity at O-line and WR?


I would respond to this, but I’m about to announce my retirement.
 

TommyBrady12

Hall of Fame Poster
FWIW Peter King thinks that Brady will re-sign with NE...

FMIA: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
Tom Brady: A return to Foxboro seems smartest, but . . .
I can’t tell you with any confidence whatsoever that Brady re-signs with New England, but it does make the most sense to me one month out. When I left a short session with Brady 44 days ago, after New England’s loss to Tennessee in the wild-card game, I thought there was at least a 50-50 chance he’d leave. I still think so. I still think there’s a decent chance he’s a 405 billboard with a lightning bolt on his helmet by April, the key to a desperate drive by the Chargers to sell tickets and luxury seating for their first season in the new L.A. stadium this fall. Or maybe he’ll be one of the old-timers—Cher, Diana Ross, Rod Stewart—with 2020 residencies in Las Vegas. In L.A. or Vegas, Brady would be one hell of a draw—and he would have better skill players today in either place than he had last fall in Foxboro. Which matters. Tennessee wouldn’t shock me either.

Having said that, for now, I’ll go against the grain and say my gut feeling is he’ll settle on the Patriots. It seems the most reasonable solution to the Brady free-agency dilemma.

I’ll preface this by saying none of this logic matters if Bill Belichick has already decided he wants to start a new era that doesn’t include a 43-year-old quarterback who makes a lot of money. Belichick might want to begin anew with a quarterback he feels is good and who costs significantly less—someone like 32-year-old Andy Dalton; the Patriots would probably have to pay a third or fourth-round pick for Dalton, who has a year left on his contract and no future in Cincinnati. (The Patriots have two thirds and two fourths, including a likely third-round compensatory pick.) If Belichick makes up his mind that it’s time to move on from Brady, then my argument is moot. Dalton, by the way, would be my pick to start in New England next year if Brady goes. Belichick would love Dalton. He’s a quiet, intense, lunchpail Texan who makes no excuses. And Dalton would embrace the Patriot ethos.

If a Brady return is going to work, I think what has to happen is a summit meeting with Brady and Belichick . . . or Brady, Belichick and Kraft. I came away from my meeting with Brady last month best-guessing (Brady doesn’t air family business in the press) that, for him to return, the team around him is the most important factor. The team, meaning his coaches and his offensive mates. Josh McDaniels, the quarterback coach or offensive coordinator for 13 of Brady’s 20 New England seasons, is back. Belichick is back. What if Brady makes it known he’d return if they signed one of the top two free-agent tight ends, Austin Hooper or Hunter Henry, and then a couple of the free-agent wide receivers—assuming Amari Cooper’s too expensive, maybe Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Hogan, a familiar face who was vital in the Super Bowl win over Atlanta? Then, while backup Jarrett Stidham is being groomed, Brady gives New England two more years of a championship window.

Regarding the money: I just think they can figure it out. I doubt that would stand in the way of a deal getting done.

Now, it could be that Brady has a bit of wanderlust, and spending his last two years (or one, or three) in a land far, far away from New England. Maybe the thought of playing in L.A. or Las Vegas is appealing. Maybe being wooed is appealing. And maybe he’ll look at the newness as a rebirth. Only he knows if that’s really important. I can’t see it, but who knows. If Brady goes on a Peyton Manning free-agency tour, with helicopters following his chauffeured Escalade from private airstrips to team facilities, I’m skeptical on a New England return. Hard to imagine Belichick getting in line with Anthony Lynn and Jon Gruden and whoever the wooers would be. I’d guess Belichick in that case would think, Well, we’ve gone 14-6 without Brady since he took the job in 2001. We’ll figure it out with someone else.

One other point about leaving, and Manning. When Manning signed with Denver, it was pretty well known he was going to have his fingerprints all over the offense. I have never sensed Brady wanted any other role other than quarterback. He wants his coaches to take care of the little things, and in New England, that’s what has happened. Would he like working with Chargers offensive coordinator Shane Steichen? Does he even know Shane Steichen? Again: Brady may view that part of it as refreshing and new. Only he knows.

With all the qualifiers, you must wonder why I have picked the Patriots? It’s because it’s the smartest football move. And I think, in the end, Brady will make the decision mostly because of football, and what gives him the best chance to win another Super Bowl. Staying, with some offensive upgrades, gives him that. I’ve vacillated between Brady staying and going, and this dart-throw of him staying in New England is based on logic, not emotion. We all know Kraft wants that to happen. In a month, we’ll know if Brady and Belichick do.
 

Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
Arithmetic is tough.

1-1 is one chance in 2 or 50% odds
2-1 is one chance in 3 or 33% odds
3-1 is one chance in 4 or 25% odds
4-1 is one chance in 5 or 20% odds
5-1 is one chance in 6 or 16% odds

If Brady is 80% not coming back then that leaves 20% that he is. 1 = 20% and 5 = 100%

66 completions out of 99 attempts is a 66% completion rate.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

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If Brady is 80% not coming back then that leaves 20% that he is. 1 = 20% and 5 = 100%

66 completions out of 99 attempts is a 66% completion rate.

Just FYI, I don’t know if you are doing this exercise solely as a math example, but Brady is -300 to -400 to stay with the Patriots. That converts to roughly 75-80% probability. The main problem with his free agency endeavors is that no team has emerged. The highest probability outside NE is Las Vegas, which is still about +700 (14% probability.). If Brady does indeed test free agency, at least one team is likely to emerge as a betting favorite alongside the Patriots.
 
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