Many Want A Defensive Front Six Player At 21: Will Anyone There Be Worth the Pick

[jimnance]

Cb is the biggest need on the team. By far.
But you gotta go for bpa. So however that shakes out. Cb/wr are need areas and are supposedly deep in quality in this draft. So a 2nd rounder could be fine for either.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Disagree on this BGC. I actually think this a the most realistic way to look at the prospects.

sure but this was just a vague question. no real point or insight. it's a little bit of everything. which is fine I'm just saying we could do better. especially if we're starting 5 a week. put some effort into it that's all I'm saying.

Eliminate the ones who are almost guaranteed to be gone, make a list of those remaining, and basically make a proxy list of who you would take, why, snd whether to make the pick, trade up, or trade down.

This is pretty much the PTP list

I appreciate all the work you and some of the other hard core draftniks do, and I think this board has one of the best draft forums there is, but the comprehensive thread posted here is simply too long and unwieldy to deal with. Every time I click on it I end up halfway through, and I would have to forward 50x just to get to most recent posts. Jump to newest doesn’t work. I think a series of position posts would be helpful for the month of April, with about a week to recap, otherwise known as letting the most miserable here cry about another draft without their binkies. Then have the draft relegated back to its forum for the rest of the year.

I agree here. I wish more comments were strictly insights into prospects, positions of need, draft history etc rather than mock drafts or we. Some type of plan you'd try to accomplish or just a list of guys you like fir a reference point later. I'm all for getting into the details you know that.

I might start a position by position thread but don't want to clog the main either.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

And 20-50. It’s more about need than most drafts imo.

Yeah this year is different. I think the talent between 1-40 this year is pretty evenly distributed between the positions and prospects compared to years past.

 

[50-yard-line]

Yeah this year is different. I think the talent between 1-40 this year is pretty evenly distributed between the positions and prospects compared to years past.

I get a little nervous when I see that, to be honest.

College players are being rated against other college players, obviously. If 1-40 are similar, does that trend to high end or mediocre? Is it a "good" draft for pro-level top-end?

Similarly, I get a bit of an eye-roll over the Georgia defensive prospects. Wouldn't college front of Wyatt, Davis, and Trayvon Walker make Cine and Kendrick's jobs easier? To say nothing of Quay Walker, Dean and Tindall (and Nolan Smith, too, had he decided to enter the draft) at the second level?

I know there's a ton of talent there (almost literally with Davis, who I love for the Pats, but playing alongside 8 other potential top 100 picks is pretty good territory for a player looking to shine.

I'm thinking of a guy like Anfernee Jennings. Looked great in that loaded Alabama defense - will he even get on the field this year?

EDIT: Also, I think Curran is right and the Pats are going much more zone and smaller/faster at LB - McMillan is listed at 242, Wilson (who I loved coming out of college) at 233...throw in Pepper and Dugger, I was only (less than) half-kidding when I said they were creating a 4-7 defense.

BCG, will this change your PTP thinking on your board? Is a Chenal still more likely (type-wise) than a Lloyd?

 

[holyredeemer]

I would recommend to anyone that has questions of players coming up into the draft, go into the PTP list thread. The very first post has a link to BGC’s list that he has kept updated. Those are guys that he has identified as Patriots Type Players based on all of his film study. For example, he’s made it clear he’s a pretty big fan of Nakobe Dean, but Dean isn’t on that list. Why? Well, he’s not traditionally the type of player the Patriots would draft, so he has been omitted. It’s a great place to start. Pull up his list, and go watch some film, highlights, read how they did at the combine, etc. Guys like Dabruinz and many other (Yes, even the Captain) have turned me onto other players to look up. Before you know it, you’ll be pretty damn informed and able to make your own list, or better yet, participate in the time honored tradition of staking claim to your top binkies!

TLDR: Go to PTP thread. Read the first post by BGC. Click his link to see his PTP board. Go to Google and start searching away. You can even quickly scroll through the thread and slow down whenever you see video links. Those are usually great posts by board members with film and eval.

 

[holyredeemer]

I get a little nervous when I see that, to be honest.

College players are being rated against other college players, obviously. If 1-40 are similar, does that trend to high end or mediocre? Is it a "good" draft for pro-level top-end?

Similarly, I get a bit of an eye-roll over the Georgia defensive prospects. Wouldn't college front of Wyatt, Davis, and Trayvon Walker make Cine and Kendrick's jobs easier? To say nothing of Quay Walker, Dean and Tindall (and Nolan Smith, too, had he decided to enter the draft) at the second level?

I know there's a ton of talent there (almost literally with Davis, who I love for the Pats, but playing alongside 8 other potential top 100 picks is pretty good territory for a player looking to shine.

I'm thinking of a guy like Anfernee Jennings. Looked great in that loaded Alabama defense - will he even get on the field this year?

You’re absolutely right. That’s why hopefully the scouts are evaluating the players individually. Not looking at the results as much as how strong are they, how quick do they diagnose a play, Did they make that interception happen or rewind…nope. That DT who applied the rush did. They should be evaluating not off of stats but by perceived skill. Comes down to how good of a job your scouts, war room etc put everything together. Go to the board of any fan base and you’ll see a lotta people *****ing about their organizations draft picks. Such a crap shoot man.

 

[Patriot Missile]

This year there's little difference between #1 & 25.

And not a whole of difference between 32 and 90 either which is why some are hammering for a trade down. Although there are some prospects with huge potential in that 32-45 range like Walker and T Jones. After that its business as usual and the best scouts win.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I get a little nervous when I see that, to be honest.

College players are being rated against other college players, obviously. If 1-40 are similar, does that trend to high end or mediocre? Is it a "good" draft for pro-level top-end?

So my scale goes something like this ...

9.5 - 9.9 1st RD - Elite/HOF Potential - Top 5-10 at their position - week to week game changers. Not many have earned this grade (Aaron Donald, Von Miller, JJ Watt, Odell, Mack, Myles Garrett)

8.5 - 9.4 1st RD - Impact Starter - Chance to be top 10-20 at his position - Top Tier players (Pat Peterson, Gilmore, Mike Evans, Lamar Jackson)

8 - 8.4 2nd RD - Future / Part-Time Starter - Contributes year one - potential to be top 25 / consistent NFL productivity (Jarvis Landry, Kyle Van Noy, Gabe Davis, Carlton Davis)

7 - 7.9 3rd RD - Impact Depth / Rotation - Chance to Start in right situation - Quality Special Teams (you get the idea and my grades are always available in the draft forum in most of the draft threads)

6.5 - 6.9 4th RD - Special Teams / Possible Rotation - Depth

6.0 - 6.4 5th RD - Take A Shot

5.5 - 5.9 6th RD Take A Shot

5.0 - 5.4 7th RD Take A Shot

I think we have about ten to twelve 8.5 - 9 types. Neal, Icky, Cross, Sauce, Johnson, Walker, KT, Booth, McDuffie, Linderbaum, Stingley, Dax, Davis, Zion. Maybe one or two more

Twenty five 8 - 8.4 and 7 - 7.9 types and then a decent drop off.

Similarly, I get a bit of an eye-roll over the Georgia defensive prospects. Wouldn't college front of Wyatt, Davis, and Trayvon Walker make Cine and Kendrick's jobs easier? To say nothing of Quay Walker, Dean and Tindall (and Nolan Smith, too, had he decided to enter the draft) at the second level?

I know there's a ton of talent there (almost literally with Davis, who I love for the Pats, but playing alongside 8 other potential top 100 picks is pretty good territory for a player looking to shine.

I'm thinking of a guy like Anfernee Jennings. Looked great in that loaded Alabama defense - will he even get on the field this year?

Yup but remember they're going to an all-star league in the NFL and will be playing alongside the best of the best on another level. I get what you're saying though. That's why it's important to block out competition, teammates etc and really study the individual. In some cases it matters, others not so much.

EDIT: Also, I think Curran is right and the Pats are going much more zone and smaller/faster at LB - McMillan is listed at 242, Wilson (who I loved coming out of college) at 233...throw in Pepper and Dugger, I was only (less than) half-kidding when I said they were creating a 4-7 defense.

BCG, will this change your PTP thinking on your board? Is a Chenal still more likely (type-wise) than a Lloyd?

Honestly I don't think so. I think we're bending and compromising a little. I definitely think Chenal is more likely than Lloyd for example. Just think we'll give a little but not going to an extreme just yet.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I would recommend to anyone that has questions of players coming up into the draft, go into the PTP list thread. The very first post has a link to BGC’s list that he has kept updated. Those are guys that he has identified as Patriots Type Players based on all of his film study. For example, he’s made it clear he’s a pretty big fan of Nakobe Dean, but Dean isn’t on that list. Why? Well, he’s not traditionally the type of player the Patriots would draft, so he has been omitted. It’s a great place to start. Pull up his list, and go watch some film, highlights, read how they did at the combine, etc. Guys like Dabruinz and many other (Yes, even the Captain) have turned me onto other players to look up. Before you know it, you’ll be pretty damn informed and able to make your own list, or better yet, participate in the time honored tradition of staking claim to your top binkies!

TLDR: Go to PTP thread. Read the first post by BGC. Click his link to see his PTP board. Go to Google and start searching away. You can even quickly scroll through the thread and slow down whenever you see video links. Those are usually great posts by board members with film and eval.

Since 2018 I've had 20 + prospects drafted off the board so I'm either lucky or good or both? I had like 5 in 2018, 7 in 2020. I haven't heard about media hitting on more than 2-3 and that's been my floor.

I just follow our trends, what I gathered and understand from watching us all these years and combine that with the value I place on prospects. Which is key, the draft is all about combining need and value so it only helps so much throwing out names. You must know where their value is. For example: I had a 2nd RD grade on Dugger. 4th on Stevenson. 5th on Onwenu. 2nd on Harry. 3rd on Williams. 3rd on Harris. You get the point. You have to consistently be on par with the NFL/NEP in terms of being on the same page with draft prospects.

I think it helps.

 

[Ivan]

I get a little nervous when I see that, to be honest.

College players are being rated against other college players, obviously. If 1-40 are similar, does that trend to high end or mediocre? Is it a "good" draft for pro-level top-end?

Similarly, I get a bit of an eye-roll over the Georgia defensive prospects. Wouldn't college front of Wyatt, Davis, and Trayvon Walker make Cine and Kendrick's jobs easier? To say nothing of Quay Walker, Dean and Tindall (and Nolan Smith, too, had he decided to enter the draft) at the second level?

I know there's a ton of talent there (almost literally with Davis, who I love for the Pats, but playing alongside 8 other potential top 100 picks is pretty good territory for a player looking to shine.

I'm thinking of a guy like Anfernee Jennings. Looked great in that loaded Alabama defense - will he even get on the field this year?

EDIT: Also, I think Curran is right and the Pats are going much more zone and smaller/faster at LB - McMillan is listed at 242, Wilson (who I loved coming out of college) at 233...throw in Pepper and Dugger, I was only (less than) half-kidding when I said they were creating a 4-7 defense.

BCG, will this change your PTP thinking on your board? Is a Chenal still more likely (type-wise) than a Lloyd?

I think this is pretty accurate in regards to defensive changes. There was an article a year or two ago about Belichick’s interest in a college defensive system, I think it was Iowa State, that focused on the coverage abilities of the back 7, with the ability of safeties to interchange with the linebackers in run support. I thought the Duggars pick was with this kind of change in mind. And I think Belichick is going to go to more of a safety centric system, and that’s why I think Daxton Hill could be a surprise pick,

 

[Ivan]

sure but this was just a vague question. no real point or insight. it's a little bit of everything. which is fine I'm just saying we could do better. especially if we're starting 5 a week. put some effort into it that's all I'm saying.

This is pretty much the PTP list

I agree here. I wish more comments were strictly insights into prospects, positions of need, draft history etc rather than mock drafts or we. Some type of plan you'd try to accomplish or just a list of guys you like fir a reference point later. I'm all for getting into the details you know that.

I might start a position by position thread but don't want to clog the main either.

There’s nothing to clog. Right now the only thing of relevance is the draft, and that will be the primary focus for at least the next 5 weeks.It’s similar to free agency, there’s some speculation prior to opening of free agency, then a burst of activity, then the post Morten crying of all the needs not met, and binkies that got away, and then we move on to the next phase, the draft, and so on, year in, year out…..

 

[Ivan]

sure but this was just a vague question. no real point or insight. it's a little bit of everything. which is fine I'm just saying we could do better. especially if we're starting 5 a week. put some effort into it that's all I'm saying.

This is pretty much the PTP list

I agree here. I wish more comments were strictly insights into prospects, positions of need, draft history etc rather than mock drafts or we. Some type of plan you'd try to accomplish or just a list of guys you like fir a reference point later. I'm all for getting into the details you know that.

I might start a position by position thread but don't want to clog the main either.

There’s nothing to clog. Right now the only thing of relevance is the draft, and that will be the primary focus for at least the next 5 weeks.It’s similar to free agency, there’s some speculation prior to opening of free agency, then a burst of activity, then the post Morten crying of all the needs not met, and binkies that got away, and then we move on to the next phase, the draft, and so on, year in, year out…..

 

[Patsgofor4]

There’s nothing to clog. Right now the only thing of relevance is the draft, and that will be the primary focus for at least the next 5 weeks.It’s similar to free agency, there’s some speculation prior to opening of free agency, then a burst of activity, then the post Morten crying of all the needs not met, and binkies that got away, and then we move on to the next phase, the draft, and so on, year in, year out…..

post Morten Anderson?

 

[borg]

I have given very little thought about this year's draft except to believe Bill will go heavy on D and grab an OL at some point.

Yet, I had the most vivid dream (or nightmare depending on how you look at it) last night that involved a younger, incredibly handsome version of me riding around in a big ole sedan in the dark of night with BB at the wheel and the 4 current NE starting OL in the back (big back seat). When the big guys exited the car, Bill just sat there shaking his head and pointed at Andrew's and said "Not good enough". Trying to sound knowledgeable, I said "Is it because Andrew's is susceptible to the bull rush" and Bill just shook his head in silence. In an effort to keep the discussion going, I said "I thought your biggest worry for the OL would be left guard." Bill responded "Oh we'll be taking care of that early in the draft" and he went on to say he had one particular LG in mind.

We then all proceeded into a Knights of Columbus hall for an awards ceremony that honored a local SEC player, with a rousing speech from his momma.
Trent Brown eyed me as if I was part of Team Bill.
That scared me awake

So......put your mock drafts away

Left Guard in the 1st
New starting caliber center too

And there you have it

If I have a recurring dream tonight, what do you want me to ask Bill?
About Brady leaving? The Butler benching? Linda ?

 

[JMC00]

I'm thinking of a guy like Anfernee Jennings. Looked great in that loaded Alabama defense - will he even get on the field this year?

Tbf to Jennings his rookie year he was playing in a defense missing key leaders and going thru a rebuild and then he had a season ending injury in training camp this past season.. Maybe he ends up being a plus roleplayer on the edge.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Tbf to Jennings his rookie year he was playing in a defense missing key leaders and going thru a rebuild and then he had a season ending injury in training camp this past season.. Maybe he ends up being a plus roleplayer on the edge.

Would be huge if he turned into something this year. Dude was a baller at Bama. It isn’t really fair to definitively judge any of the 2020 class based upon their rookie year alone….no offseason other than virtual sessions and a one month training camp with no scrimmages or preseason games. My main question about him is whether his play speed is good enough for the NFL. It looked like it in college but he looked slow to me as a rookie.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Would be huge if he turned into something this year. Dude was a baller at Bama. It isn’t really fair to definitively judge any of the 2020 class based upon their rookie year alone….no offseason other than virtual sessions and a one month training camp with no scrimmages or preseason games. My main question about him is whether his play speed is good enough for the NFL. It looked like it in college but he looked slow to me as a rookie.

i said it when he was drafted and after his first games. He needs to play DE/Edge here to make an impact. He is just way to slow for MLB

 

[50-yard-line]

Tbf to Jennings his rookie year he was playing in a defense missing key leaders and going thru a rebuild and then he had a season ending injury in training camp this past season.. Maybe he ends up being a plus roleplayer on the edge.

Tbf to Jennings…
Tbf to Winovich…
Tbf to Uche…
Tbf to Perkins…

The pattern is concerning. These were really good prospects and for some reason, they don’t seem to be making any jump. I know it’s too early to say that about Perkins, and I bet the guy is as talented as many of the 2nd tier (at least) edge guys some here are hoping for in the draft.

Bottom line is that with Jennings, Uche, and Perkins, the Pats already gave the raw talent to cover that end opposite Judon, so what gives? How about we really see what these guys can do?

 

[Ivan]

post Morten Anderson?

My spell correct is out of control, I have to go back to most posts to fix them.

 

[Ivan]

Tbf to Hennings…
Tbf to Winovich…
Tbf to Uche…
Tbf to Perkins…

The pattern is concerning. These were really good prospects and for some reason, they don’t seem to be making any jump. I know it’s too early to say that about Perkins, and I bet the guy is as talented as many of the 2nd tier (at least) edge guys some here are hoping for in the draft.

Bottom line is that with Jennings, Uche, and Perkins, the Pats already gave the raw talent to cover that end opposite Judon, so what gives? How about we really see what these guys can do?

I he is an exceptional athlete, but I had concerns about him when he said he had learned the apartments system before he even got to Foxborough.