Mac Ahead of Where Manning Was His Rookie Year

[sb1]

A Watson trade wouldn't be Mac-for-DW straight up. We all know that. There is no realistic scenario at all where the Pats end up ahead in such a deal so there's no reason to take it. Not to mention a looming suspension/exempt list.

 

[borg]

Stats that may only interest me...

NE offense is 20th or worse in pts scored in each of the 4 quarters

NE offense has averaged 2 pts/game in the 1st quarter
NE offense has averaged 6.6 pts in the 4th quarter ....a 330% increase

 

[sb1]

Brady arm strength has been mile better than Mac even in his rookie year.

From what I see right now when Mac has to throw for more than 10 yards, he has to read the coverage quickly and perfectly and throw the ball on time with anticipation. If he is late in his read, I don’t think he has the arm strength to get the ball in a tighter window on a late throw as of right now.

Brady always had good arm strength but when he started his deep game wasn't all that.

 

[Pats2000]

Brady in 01 threw a 91 yard TD to David Patten vs colts that traveled 61 air yards hitting him in stride

If Mac even attempted a throw like that I would eat my hat

He threw it on the 2 and Patten caught it on the 50. 48 yard pass, not quite the 61 yards. I guess legends grow over time though.

Edit, Brady was actually closer to the 3, so 47 yard pass.

 

[Pats2000]

One of the things you'll also notice is the time Brady had in the pocket his first year playing, as well as the solid supporting run game. Mac hasn't had the same type of great Oline play or the supporting run game. I'd like to see Brady put in a similar situation his first year in.

Mac is doing admirably for the challenges that he faces. Also, Brady wasn't great at throwing off his back foot either his first year in. Everyone that is comparing Brady 1st year to Mac, has 20 years of forgetting that Brady wasn't putting up huge numbers, was called a system QB, didn't have a big time arm that could throw off platform, and wasn't capable of running this offense his first year in. It's a lot of revisionist history based on who Brady is today.

 

[jdlboot14]

Mac is 5th in completion %, and 5th in completions... in the entire NFL among starters.
He was never going to be slinging it for the yards and TD's right away. But those stats show something.

If not for the 3 Picks that were gifts from some stupid bounces off our receivers, only 2 INT's were his mistakes.
This is what you want from a rookie, or for any offense that is rebuilding with new pieces. The fireworks will come in time.

 

[sb1]

One of the things you'll also notice is the time Brady had in the pocket his first year playing, as well as the solid supporting run game. Mac hasn't had the same type of great Oline play or the supporting run game. I'd like to see Brady put in a similar situation his first year in.

Mac is doing admirably for the challenges that he faces. Also, Brady wasn't great at throwing off his back foot either his first year in. Everyone that is comparing Brady 1st year to Mac, has 20 years of forgetting that Brady wasn't putting up huge numbers, was called a system QB, didn't have a big time arm that could throw off platform, and wasn't capable of running this offense his first year in. It's a lot of revisionist history based on who Brady is today.

Antowain Smith was such a benefit to Brady in that first year. Mac has nobody like that.

He had White I guess but well you know

 

[Pats2000]

Antowain Smith was such a benefit to Brady in that first year. Mac has nobody like that.

He had White I guess but well you know

Yeah, Patriots had 1800 yards rushing that year.

Right now Pats on on pace for 1,280 total rushing yards normalized to a 16 game season. This team still needs to gel better.

 

[Pats2000]

Mac is 5th in completion %, and 5th in completions... in the entire NFL among starters.
He was never going to be slinging it for the yards and TD's right away. But those stats show something.

If not for the 3 Picks that were gifts from some stupid bounces off our receivers, only 2 INT's were his mistakes.
This is what you want from a rookie, or for any offense that is rebuilding with new pieces. The fireworks will come in time.

There's a group of people in here that expected Mac to be the 2nd coming of Jesus out of the gate and go undefeated apparently, otherwise he's a bust.

 

[bormio]

There's a group of people in here that expected Mac to be the 2nd coming of Jesus out of the gate and go undefeated apparently, otherwise he's a bust.

And if he does anything good, we are reminded he has a low ceiling. Just like Cowherd has said. Actually I love people doubting Mac. He may be quiet and soft-spoken, but he is a competitive SOB.

 

[sb1]

Yeah, Patriots had 1800 yards rushing that year.

Right now Pats on on pace for 1,280 total rushing yards normalized to a 16 game season. This team still needs to gel better.

Pats running attack is currently ranked bottom 5 in the league and right now they have a look of being the worst running team the Pats have had in the BB era. That should not be the case a year after having a top 5 rushing attack.

Mac is not ready to carry a one dimensional team. The running game has to be better than this.

 

[Fuzz]

Brady arm strength has been mile better than Mac even in his rookie year.

From what I see right now when Mac has to throw for more than 10 yards, he has to read the coverage quickly and perfectly and throw the ball on time with anticipation. If he is late in his read, I don’t think he has the arm strength to get the ball in a tighter window on a late throw as of right now.

Thats true, Brady's arm strength in 01 (not rookie year) was respectable. I think the whole idea that he had a below average arm comes from his scouting reports. He did not have a great arm in college, and must have put in a lot of work to improve it during the 2000 season and off-season. Hopefully Mac can do the same this offseason. Until then, he has to find ways to make up in other areas.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

When you start including things like sacks, the top rookies will look worse - they're processing slower and many are on bad teams. Fields was lost out there the other day and sacked 9 times.

Touchdown passes is an amorphous stat - Brady throws a 2-uarder to Gronk (manning used to get slammed here for padding his stats all the time), where Tannehill, for example, gives the ball to Henry. Same result, different ranking in this stat.

This kind of "deep dive" stuff is way harder to do in football than in baseball (where it's already greatly diminished the game). Similarly, Manning throws a bubble screen to Demarious Thomas, who explodes for an 80-yard TD. Manning benefits, whereas another QB tosses the same pass to a lesser player and gains 3. Whoopdeedo.

Statistics will tell you anything you want to hear if you torture them enough.

Is the QB doing what he's asked to do?
Is the rookie protecting the ball?
Is the rookie making the throws you're asking him to make?

Eh, never mind. You've convinced me. Daniel Jones is better than Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts.

It’s a five game sample size. You pick out one example of a player who is overranked and throw your hands up as though it proves this is random/unfair. And not that I think Daniel Jones is any good, but he’s averaging 8.2 ypa and has only 1 INT this season.

Again, I said it is “broad brush” and never claimed it’s infallible. No stat is. It does capture QB production very well though misses context, circumstances, responsibility, like any stat. But numerous people have pointed out ANY/A is a very fair stat if we’re using a catch-all stat. I can just see you have zero interest in objectivity. Just like with everything, if it isn’t a pro-Patriots agenda, it must be flawed.

Pape used it to show that historically where Mac is for ANY/A, he’s in the same range as where a handful of current leaders were in their first five starts. That’s good analysis, not agenda. I’m glad to see it because I’m not trying to make statistics “tell me” what I want to hear.

This “criticism” which you alone complaining about, preceded by your hissy fit shows me that your bias is so extreme you’re not worth conversing with any more, whereas I used to think you at least had good faith takes, even if I didn’t agree. You can have the last word if you want. Whatever.

 

[Pats2000]

Thats true, Brady's arm strength in 01 (not rookie year) was respectable. I think the whole idea that he had a below average arm comes from his scouting reports. He did not have a great arm in college, and must have put in a lot of work to improve it during the 2000 season and off-season. Hopefully Mac can do the same this offseason. Until then, he has to find ways to make up in other areas.

I don't remember Brady being able to make great off platform throws early in his career, even today, off platform isn't his strength. He's much better, but he's still not Aaron Rogers or Mahommes in that respect.

For most of his career, getting a push on Brady up the middle and keeping him from stepping into his throw was how you got him off target. Mac isn't much different in that respect.

 

[Pape]

AY/A is a little different from ANY/A though. The guys in 2021 will be higher because sacks are being deducted with ANY/A.

I meant to bring this up... thanks for pointing it out...

each player was manually sorted, and i selected their first five starts.... the any/a was not calculated / presented in the stat line by pfr... the image is a series of combined screen caps... what you see is what they gave me... i figured the closest analog was the ay/a stat, which is how i sorted them, in descending order

 

[Ian]

Brady arm strength has been mile better than Mac even in his rookie year.

Don't forget, Brady was in his second year - not his first - when he took over. He was definitely stronger than he was his first season and you're right, he definitely had more on the ball than Mac does as a rookie. Hopefully, that will change in year two.

But as a rookie, Brady was just O.K. arm-wise. Again, he was really, really thin. His locker was right next to Bledsoe's and I remember looking at the two (Bledsoe was obviously considerably bigger) and thinking he definitely needs to put on some weight.

Watch this TD pass he threw during the 2000 preseason - it's not like there was a lot of zip on the ball that first year:

 

[50-yard-line]

It’s a five game sample size. You pick out one example of a player who is overranked and throw your hands up as though it proves this is random/unfair. And not that I think Daniel Jones is any good, but he’s averaging 8.2 ypa and has only 1 INT this season.

Again, I said it is “broad brush” and never claimed it’s infallible. No stat is. It does capture QB production very well though misses context, circumstances, responsibility, like any stat. But numerous people have pointed out ANY/A is a very fair stat if we’re using a catch-all stat. I can just see you have zero interest in objectivity. Just like with everything, if it isn’t a pro-Patriots agenda, it must be flawed.

Pape used it to show that historically where Mac is for ANY/A, he’s in the same range as where a handful of current leaders were in their first five starts. That’s good analysis, not agenda. I’m glad to see it because I’m not trying to make statistics “tell me” what I want to hear.

This “criticism” which you alone complaining about, preceded by your hissy fit shows me that your bias is so extreme you’re not worth conversing with any more, whereas I used to think you at least had good faith takes, even if I didn’t agree. You can have the last word if you want. Whatever.

So put me on ignore and wallow in your whiney misery.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I was going to post this in my thread after seeing Lazar's column. Stats are great and I love them but they all have noise in them. Before the year I said I wanted to see Mac have a 2/1 TD/INT ratio, top 25 ANY/A or Adot, expected 27 TD \ 12 INT 4200.

There's nothing wrong with ANY/A at all. Mac is further ahead of the rest of the rooks but they're all in the same boat more or less when you look at any/a (27-32).

First year
Mahomes 8.89
Dak 7.86
Dreamy (so freakin' hot) Jimmy G 7.22
Cousins 7.14
Tyrod 7.10
Ryan 7.01
Wilson 7.01
Ben 6.93
Herbert 6.84
Baker 6.77
Rodgers 6.64
Winston 6.44
Jackson 5.99 (went in middle of year / 8.19 next year)
Burrow 5.72
Dalton 5.62
Murray 5.55
Bridgewater 5.42
Brady 5.39
D Jones 5.38
Darnold 5.24
Tannehill 5.23
Wentz 5.09
Carr 4.82
Allen 4.37 (late in year, I can't remember off top of my head but 5.72 next year)

There's no magic # but you want > 6 here. Esp since Brady was 20 years ago.

Allen has been such an outlier in terms of accuracy, pocket awareness and mechanics. Confidence. He's been a beast. Him and Herbert. Just completely different QB's.

Thanks for the list. This is great info. Jimmy...lmao

Clearly the chart isn’t a perfect correlation of future success, but it’s quite good. I’d be curious to do a larger project on this and look at not only the guys who are successful (in the sense they haven’t lost their job as of now) but also the guys who just never made it off the ground. Like, I look at a guy like Z. Wilson with a ANY/A of 3, and I wonder if there’s basically a level of unsalvageable play, shown even as a rookie. I see Carr at 4.82 and Allen at 4.37 but wonder if there are 25 others <5 who busted. And likewise, curious to see if there are any who started out really high and then collapsed…I’m guessing there’s a level where great play, as captured by this stat, gets you into a “secure draft pick” zone.

When I get around to it, I’ll screen shot an Excel list.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Thanks for the list. This is great info. Jimmy...lmao

Clearly the chart isn’t a perfect correlation of future success, but it’s quite good. I’d be curious to do a larger project on this and look at not only the guys who are successful (in the sense they haven’t lost their job as of now) but also the guys who just never made it off the ground. Like, I look at a guy like Z. Wilson with a ANY/A of 3, and I wonder if there’s basically a level of unsalvageable play, shown even as a rookie. I see Carr at 4.82 and Allen at 4.37 but wonder if there are 25 others <5 who busted. And likewise, curious to see if there are any who started out really high and then collapsed…I’m guessing there’s a level where great play, as captured by this stat, gets you into a “secure draft pick” zone.

When I get around to it, I’ll screen shot an Excel list.

Yea should have noted, I'm sure most picked up on it. All didn't start at the same point. Jimmy had years of prep time to look pretty. Rodgers, Mahomes ... You can see a few guys benefited from sitting a year. Difference between getting thrown in mid-year vs 2nd for Jackson.

I think the guys that end up with < 5 have a tough time going forward save for a few guys like Allen and Carr.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

I’ll be honest…if the Pats actually traded Mac for Deshaun I’d be pissed.
Kid will be a very good QB for a long time and is unlikely to get caught being an awful human like De-touchmybuttplease Watson.

As for “Mac can’t throw deep”…bull…I am a Georgia fan. Dude can throw some beautiful balls if a WR can actually get open amd an OL can actually give him a second

You are a Georgia fan. Be honest who was the better running back coming out of college Chubb or Michel?