Mac Ahead of Where Manning Was His Rookie Year

[Pats1971]

I see Metchie as a mid to late 1st round pick (around where the Pats pick) . Considering Harry will probably be gone after this season (good riddance), there will be an opening.

They are not taking a receiver that high in the draft. They spent big money on two TE's and two receivers. You will see a safety before you see a receiver.

 

[scott99]

No I am under the assumption that things dont happen unless they do. Miami and tampa are two of the worst defenses in the league. lol, You might need a better example. Pats play buffalo twice, they are number 1. The pats play no worse pass defenses than they already have. What a team was last year does not mean much for this year. They have played pretty bad secondaries and he has 5 td's and 5 ints. It does not get easier. So again, I have to go by that logic and say no, he will not have those kinds of numbers.

Tampa does not have a bad defense, they have an injured defense. That being said, their front 7 was still elite when they faced the Pats. You said the Pats haven’t faced a good defense, and I gave you proof that they have (New Orleans, 4th best points against).

Also, the 11 remaining games they have, only 2 teams are in the top 10 in points against (Buffalo x 2 and Carolina).

 

[Pats1971]

Tampa does not have a bad defense, they have an injured defense. That being said, their front 7 was still elite when they faced the Pats. You said the Pats haven’t faced a good defense, and I gave you proof that they have (New Orleans, 4th best points against).

Injured makes it bad. Tampa is dead last in pass defense, so yeah, they havent. So which is it points or passing yards? You have used both. Pick one. You didnt give any proof, you changed what stat you were using twice. lol. They faced Jets, not bad, but then the only reason we scored was they kept throwing the ball to us. Miami awful. Tampa, worst passing defense in league, Saints, Good but then we didnt do anything, it was Mac's worse game we had 13 points and he threw 3 picks. Houston, bad. So, the one good D they played, he was awful.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Imagine being Miami and passing on Herbert for Too Ah?

People will be fired for that decision

 

[NG Pats Fan]

As he starts throwing down field more his completion pct will go down. Its funny though, there is a video of all of Brady's td's in his career, starts with his first and goes to his last, there are some bombs very early on in that video. One to brown for example.

Brady in 01 threw a 91 yard TD to David Patten vs colts that traveled 61 air yards hitting him in stride

If Mac even attempted a throw like that I would eat my hat

 

[Pats1971]

Brady in 01 threw a 91 yard TD to David Patten vs colts that traveled 61 air yards hitting him in stride

If Mac even attempted a throw like that I would eat my hat

Yeah if you you guys get a chance, you have to watch that video, its like a hour long, but its every td throw Brady ever made starting from number 1 and going in order. Lets just say his early early ones were not 3 yard outs and screens for td's.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

There’s the possibility that this rookie class is just a cataclysmic failure, too. 5 out of 6 at the bottom with only a backup in there. It takes rookies time to learn. This is still very abnormally low. Both of these are true.

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I was going to post this in my thread after seeing Lazar's column. Stats are great and I love them but they all have noise in them. Before the year I said I wanted to see Mac have a 2/1 TD/INT ratio, top 25 ANY/A or Adot, expected 27 TD \ 12 INT 4200.

There's nothing wrong with ANY/A at all. Mac is further ahead of the rest of the rooks but they're all in the same boat more or less when you look at any/a (27-32).

First year
Mahomes 8.89
Dak 7.86
Dreamy (so freakin' hot) Jimmy G 7.22
Cousins 7.14
Tyrod 7.10
Ryan 7.01
Wilson 7.01
Ben 6.93
Herbert 6.84
Baker 6.77
Rodgers 6.64
Winston 6.44
Jackson 5.99 (went in middle of year / 8.19 next year)
Burrow 5.72
Dalton 5.62
Murray 5.55
Bridgewater 5.42
Brady 5.39
D Jones 5.38
Darnold 5.24
Tannehill 5.23
Wentz 5.09
Carr 4.82
Allen 4.37 (late in year, I can't remember off top of my head but 5.72 next year)

There's no magic # but you want > 6 here. Esp since Brady was 20 years ago.

Allen has been such an outlier in terms of accuracy, pocket awareness and mechanics. Confidence. He's been a beast. Him and Herbert. Just completely different QB's.

 

[scott99]

Injured makes it bad. Tampa is dead last in pass defense, so yeah, they havent. So which is it points or passing yards? You have used both. Pick one. You didnt give any proof, you changed what stat you were using twice. lol. They faced Jets, not bad, but then the only reason we scored was they kept throwing the ball to us. Miami awful. Tampa, worst passing defense in league, Saints, Good but then we didnt do anything, it was Mac's worse game we had 13 points and he threw 3 picks. Houston, bad. So, the one good D they played, he was awful.

I don’t think I used the passing yards stat at all. All I used was points against.

 

[upstater1]

They are not taking a receiver that high in the draft. They spent big money on two TE's and two receivers. You will see a safety before you see a receiver.

They need a CB above all but they really did not spend big money at all on the WRs. I'd say that's middling money. Nothing special at all. And we need a clear upgrade at WR.

 

[Pats1971]

I don’t think I used the passing yards stat at all. All I used was points against.

If you used points against its even worse.
Miami is 29th, Houston is 27th, Jets are 18th, Tampa is 19th. The one team in the top 10 he played the saints, he had a horrible game. Every team they played left is higher than 4 of the 5 teams they played except the jets.
Dallas 15th
Chargers 12th
Carolina 3rd
Browns 11th
and Buffalo twice who is number 1.
They will be playing 3 games against teams higher than the saints, and 7 games against teams higher than 4 teams they played so far.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

I’ll be honest…if the Pats actually traded Mac for Deshaun I’d be pissed.
Kid will be a very good QB for a long time and is unlikely to get caught being an awful human like De-touchmybuttplease Watson.

As for “Mac can’t throw deep”…bull…I am a Georgia fan. Dude can throw some beautiful balls if a WR can actually get open amd an OL can actually give him a second

 

[Pats1971]

They need a CB above all but they really did not spend big money at all on the WRs. I'd say that's middling money. Nothing special at all. And we need a clear upgrade at WR.

TE's are pass catches, they spent big money Agholor 2 years 22 mil. That was more than Edelman ever made. Borne 3 years 15 mil. So in two receivers and two TE's they spent 114 mil

 

[Pats1971]

I’ll be honest…if the Pats actually traded Mac for Deshaun I’d be pissed.
Kid will be a very good QB for a long time and is unlikely to get caught being an awful human like De-touchmybuttplease Watson.

As for “Mac can’t throw deep”…bull…I am a Georgia fan. Dude can throw some beautiful balls if a WR can actually get open amd an OL can actually give him a second

They are not going to do that, and frankly there is nothing as far as an actual story that they are.

 

[scott99]

TE's are pass catches, they spent big money Agholor 2 years 22 mil. That was more than Edelman ever made. Borne 3 years 15 mil. So in two receivers and two TE's they spent 114 mil

They are actually coming around, I like those signings. Henry is on pace for 68 receptions, Smith is on pace for 51 catches. Bourne is on pace for 58 catches, Agholor is on pace for 54 catches. And I think they can improve as a crew. They haven’t really had a breakout game yet. 68 catches by those 4 guys so far in 5 games, all of the 5 TD catches. Good signings.

 

[scott99]

If you used points against its even worse.
Miami is 29th, Houston is 27th, Jets are 18th, Tampa is 19th. The one team in the top 10 he played the saints, he had a horrible game. Every team they played left is higher than 4 of the 5 teams they played except the jets.
Dallas 15th
Chargers 12th
Carolina 3rd
Browns 11th
and Buffalo twice who is number 1.
They will be playing 3 games against teams higher than the saints, and 7 games against teams higher than 4 teams they played so far.

Looking at the last 12 games, I think they go 7-5 or 6-6.

Dallas-Loss
Jets- Win
Chargers-Loss
Carolina-Win
Cleveland-Loss
Atlanta-Win
Tennessee-Win
Buffalo-Loss
Indy-Win
Buffalo-Loss
Jacksonville-Win
Miami-Win

Now, they could shock us with a win against a good team, and loss against a bad team. But I think they can go 6-6 or 7-5 the rest of the way. I don’t think Carolina is as good as people think, and Belichick is in Darnold’s head. Same with Tennessee, I don’t think they are that good. Indy is a weird team.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

I think Mac is only going to get better. He certainly doesn’t have the zip on the ball that a Herbert or Allen have. However Brady didn’t have that much either in his early years. That was developed over time with training, practice and exercise. As long as he’s able to stay accurate, break down the defense and learn the protections he’s gonna do well. Adding the man muscle and getting that arm stronger will come

Brady arm strength has been mile better than Mac even in his rookie year.

From what I see right now when Mac has to throw for more than 10 yards, he has to read the coverage quickly and perfectly and throw the ball on time with anticipation. If he is late in his read, I don’t think he has the arm strength to get the ball in a tighter window on a late throw as of right now.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

You’re under the assumption that things CAN’T improve. They most certainly can. Mac is 5th in completion % and tied for 4th in completions (in the NFL). And I think he’s only scraped the surface.

And he is 28th in y/a, 23rd in QBR and 25th in passer rating. IMO, completion percentage is not a stats you can throw like that without context. He hasn’t thrown a pass for more than 10+ yds a lot this year

As far as defenses faced, coming into this year, Miami, Tampa and New Orleans were top 10 defenses. I know with Tampa, it’s all about the injuries in their secondary, not sure about Miami and New Orleans is 4th in the NFL in points against, so their defense is still pretty damned good.

After the Bucs-Miami game, i don’t know if I can still qualify the dolphins as a good defense. NO was the best defense they faced and Mac wasn’t good.

 

[50-yard-line]

Why is that disengenuous? I’ve used that stat frequently on this site, and I was going to make a note but saw the ANY/A was highlighted anyway. How am I being sneaky if I’m obviously trying to display and rank based on that metric?

I thought it was a well known stat but am glad to provide an explanation.

View attachment 36576

Why do I like it? Look down the list starting from the top. Notice the obvious names there who are MVP candidates? None of these stats are perfect, but try arranging by completion pct., yards, Y/A, or even passer rating and you’ll quickly see how screwy the rankings are for obvious reasons. This stat is a good broad brush.

View attachment 36575

When you start including things like sacks, the top rookies will look worse - they're processing slower and many are on bad teams. Fields was lost out there the other day and sacked 9 times.

Touchdown passes is an amorphous stat - Brady throws a 2-uarder to Gronk (manning used to get slammed here for padding his stats all the time), where Tannehill, for example, gives the ball to Henry. Same result, different ranking in this stat.

This kind of "deep dive" stuff is way harder to do in football than in baseball (where it's already greatly diminished the game). Similarly, Manning throws a bubble screen to Demarious Thomas, who explodes for an 80-yard TD. Manning benefits, whereas another QB tosses the same pass to a lesser player and gains 3. Whoopdeedo.

Statistics will tell you anything you want to hear if you torture them enough.

Is the QB doing what he's asked to do?
Is the rookie protecting the ball?
Is the rookie making the throws you're asking him to make?

Eh, never mind. You've convinced me. Daniel Jones is better than Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts.

 

[Ross12]

Brady arm strength has been mile better than Mac even in his rookie year.

From what I see right now when Mac has to throw for more than 10 yards, he has to read the coverage quickly and perfectly and throw the ball on time with anticipation. If he is late in his read, I don’t think he has the arm strength to get the ball in a tighter window on a late throw as of right now.

I’ve seen him throw several beauties way downfield while falling down with a guy on top of him that the receiver just drops (Jonnu Smith comes to mind). Don’t really know what you’re talking about there.

 

[bormio]

This “what is Mac Jones going to be?” stuff is really silly. No one knows. May be a bust, may be an all-time great. If you line up football IQ, work ethic, accuracy and arm strength as QB attributes, I would pick the first 3 over the last one if forced to choose. He looks set to be the QB here for a while, and I assume we all want the best Mac Jones possible. Strikingly, he has already earned not only the respect of his team, but also appears to have their affection with the idea of him being the QB. To a young player, that is pure gold.