The 40? How do you figure? That Eagles player is looking directly at him and in position to pounce. Most likely, White catches it running to the outside and extends for a 3 yard gain and first down. They’re 65 yards away from the endzone. I agree that it’s a throw Brady probably should have just taken, but the Patriots had moved the ball all gsme with big gash plays and chunks. Hence, low completion pct but 500 yards in the end.
If he goes for a big play and misses, it’s 3rd and 2, and they’re in 4 down territory. This is absolutely one of those down/distance situations where going for the money makes sense. Unfortunately, the risk winds up being not what was perceived…a strip sack isn’t a likely outcome someone would normally account for there. An interception or incompletion, or possibly a sack, would be the likely issues with throwing downfield.
I agree it’s on Brady, ultimately. But I can understand why he initially looked away from White to see about better options.