Kony Ealy - bold prediction, won't make roster

[Rob0729]

Not sure what you mean by "proven starter" but he played the most DE snaps on the team each of the last 2years.

He played the most snaps of any DE. Sheard was benched in Cleveland.


There is no justification for this. Ealy is nothing like Anderson.


You said that in disagreement with my statement that the joint practices will be the first real indication. That is wrong.


I think you have a poor understanding of who this player is.



What they had to pay to get him is irrelevant.
If he is here he will be playing as much on early downs as he will as a "situational pass rusher"

Ealy only started a handful of games the last two years. And who cares how many plays he played. He was a pure pass rusher on passing downs in Carolina. The LBs in Carolina do a lot of the roles DEs do in NE.

Sheard was a very good versatile player in Cleveland. He was benched because of the new regime didn't use him correctly in their system (Not surprising since Mike Pettine is an idiot). It wasn't him, it was the system. Everyone knew that. And Sheard played very well his first three seasons, That is why many people touted his free agent pick up by the Pats being the best move in free agency before the season.

Wow! You say Ealy is nothing like Anderson and then bring up Sheard who he is even less like. I am saying Ealy is similar to Anderson in that he will most likely start as a situational pass rusher and then grow into the role. Not that they are the same player.

I have an excellent understanding who Ealy is and what his role was in Carolina. Apparently you don't. The guy as of right now is a pure pass rusher. He needs to develop other skills which were not asked of him in Carolina. It will be a learning curve. I never expected him to be more than a situational pass rusher for the Pats and if he gives more, I will be really happy.

The first joint practice will only give us an indication where he is today (and that isn't guaranteed because some of these joint practices are designed for coaches to test certain things and not a real game situation). It probably has no indication where he will be in November.

Hell, watch any preseason and you see guys who you think are going to be studs because of how they look in games and never play a down in the NFL and other guys who suck who turn out to be solid players. Based on camp thus far, you can make an argument for Garoppolo to be cut.

What they paid to get him here is an indication of what the team expects from him. They basically took a low risk flyer on the guy. There is no indications that they said this guy is going to the starter or anything more than a role player. It is the fans who are now saying he needs to be a starter or at least a player who gets a majority of the snaps or will be a bust.

 

[Ring 6]

Boston Sports journal has him losing all his 1 on 1s

Please link. I believe you are misrepresenting what they reported. Show me where they say he has lost every 1 on 1.

 

[maineman209]

The pats traded a SECOND rounder for Ealy. Hard to believe he will be cut so soon.

The Pats traded the #64 (270 DVC points) for the #72 (230 DVC points) + Ealy. The net "draft capital" expenditure for Ealy was 40 DVC points, the equivalent of the #132 overall (late 4th round).

 

[Nunchucks]

Please link. I believe you are misrepresenting what they reported. Show me where they say he has lost every 1 on 1.

You have to go through each of the camp 1 v 1 report outs.

My bad, he won 1 of them.

 

[Rob0729]

While I agree with your analysis - one minor quibble.

I don't think "starter" is much of a meaningful designation for DE anymore. Most of these guys rotate situationally, so it's more about snap percentages to me. Over the past two seasons, Ealy played more snaps per game-available for the Panthers than Sheard played for the Pats, so he had a significant role, albeit in adifferent defensive system.

I think you're spot on about his potential developmental arc, though.

Are you talking last year for the Ealy and Sheard comparison? That doesn't say a whole heck of a lot since Sheard was clearly in the dog house last year being a healthy scratch one game and getting something like 8-10 snaps a game for most of the games after that.

But I agree about the starter thing. But as both of us said, Ealy was used very differently in Carolina. Belichick has said as much. The guy has never been asked to drop into coverage. That is something completely new to him.

 

[Nunchucks]

Looks like Ealy is making some noise in the scrimmage. I like that...though, maybe he is going against Flemming at tackle?

 

[Rob0729]

Since there is so much negativity from this thread about Ealy and his production thus far in camp, I thought I would post the positive:



Now I don't put much weight on either the negative or the positive at this point, but I figured I would give some balance.

 

[maineman209]

Are you talking last year for the Ealy and Sheard comparison? That doesn't say a whole heck of a lot since Sheard was clearly in the dog house last year being a healthy scratch one game and getting something like 8-10 snaps a game for most of the games after that.

But I agree about the starter thing. But as both of us said, Ealy was used very differently in Carolina. Belichick has said as much. The guy has never been asked to drop into coverage. That is something completely new to him.

I was including both of the last two seasons, and in terms of snap count per game ACTIVE. Both were "high-use" rotational guys, whether they were "starters" or not - and that's where my comparison ends.

While it's true that Sheard lost snaps last season after his benching, he still averaged 30 per game (roughly 50%) over the last six weeks of the regular season, picking up 15 total tackles and 1.5 sacks.

 

[Rob0729]

I was including both of the last two seasons, and in terms of snap count per game ACTIVE. Both were "high-use" rotational guys, whether they were "starters" or not - and that's where my comparison ends.

While it's true that Sheard lost snaps last season after his benching, he still averaged 30 per game (roughly 50%) over the last six weeks of the regular season, picking up 15 total tackles and 1.5 sacks.

Ok, but even so, that doesn't mean a lot because the Pats like to rotate their d-linemen a lot. Not sure if Carolina does or they keep the same players in.

And let's face it, if last year is included in it at all, it skews the data since Sheard was in the dog house most of last season. I am sure if you look at his playing time in 2015 vs. 2016, it is very different.

 

[Ring 6]

Ealy only started a handful of games the last two years. And who cares how many plays he played. He was a pure pass rusher on passing downs in Carolina. The LBs in Carolina do a lot of the roles DEs do in NE.

You are joking right?
You care more about who plays the first play of the game than who plays the most?
No wonder we can't agree on anything.
Carolinas 43 lbs are like NE de's? Come on. That's just crazy.

Sheard was a very good versatile player in Cleveland. He was benched because of the new regime didn't use him correctly in their system (Not surprising since Mike Pettine is an idiot). It wasn't him, it was the system.

Lol

Everyone knew that.

Rofl

And Sheard played very well his first three seasons, That is why many people touted his free agent pick up by the Pats being the best move in free agency before the season.
Wow! You say Ealy is nothing like Anderson and then bring up Sheard who he is even less like.

I brother up Sheard as a player who came here and had to adjust to what we do. You brought up Anderson as a comparable player which he simply isn't.

I am saying Ealy is similar to Anderson in that he will most likely start as a situational pass rusher and then grow into the role. Not that they are the same player.

This makes no sense.

I have an excellent understanding who Ealy is and what his role was in Carolina. Apparently you don't. The guy as of right now is a pure pass rusher. He needs to develop other skills which were not asked of him in Carolina. It will be a learning curve. I never expected him to be more than a situational pass rusher for the Pats and if he gives more, I will be really happy.

We couldn't be farther apart and you seem to have no room in your mind to accept you are wrong about much of this. (Starts mean more than dorms played, Carolina LBs are DEs, the guy who plays the most de snaps is a situational pass rusher, etc, etc). There is no point in us furthering this debacle of a conversation and hijacking a good thread going back and forth.

The first joint practice will only give us an indication where he is today (and that isn't guaranteed because some of these joint practices are designed for coaches to test certain things and not a real game situation). It probably has no indication where he will be in November.

Hmm that sounds a lot like "the first real indication" didn't someone say that?

Hell, watch any preseason and you see guys who you think are going to be studs because of how they look in games and never play a down in the NFL and other guys who suck who turn out to be solid players. Based on camp thus far, you can make an argument for Garoppolo to be cut.

Not sure what this is doing here. There is no relevance.

What they paid to get him here is an indication of what the team expects from him.

No it isn't. They paid the minimum the urgent team would expect. You think they offer more than needed if they have higher expectations? Seriously?

They basically took a low risk flyer on the guy. There is no indications that they said this guy is going to the starter or anything more than a role player. It is the fans who are now saying he needs to be a starter or at least a player who gets a majority of the snaps or will be a bust.

Again what is your point? You don't know what they expect from him so that means you can guess and be right?

Ealy played 623 snaps last season. Their other DEs played 543, 434,332,139,114,19
As a comparison the starting data played 780 and 703.
They faced 476 1st down plays, 334 2nd down plays and 212 3rd down plays.

It is totally incorrect to call the guy who play the most, 623 snaps, a situational pass rusher.

 

[Ring 6]

Ok, but even so, that doesn't mean a lot because the Pats like to rotate their d-linemen a lot. Not sure if Carolina does or they keep the same players in.

You are saying you KNOW that Ealy was a situational pass rusher but you gave no idea how Carolina uses there DL? Oh and you also said their lbs do what our DEs do, and you admit you don't even know how the use their dl.

And let's face it, if last year is included in it at all, it skews the data since Sheard was in the dog house most of last season. I am sure if you look at his playing time in 2015 vs. 2016, it is very different.

Oh really?
Sheard played 579 snaps in 2016 and 557 in 2015.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Both Wise and Lengi are getting significant looks with the first team at that position while Ealy is 2nd string.

Rookies are not taking over Ninks role. Too involved and too complex for them right now.

It'll be either High, Shea or Van Noy

 

[primetime]

The Pats traded the #64 (270 DVC points) for the #72 (230 DVC points) + Ealy. The net "draft capital" expenditure for Ealy was 40 DVC points, the equivalent of the #132 overall (late 4th round).

They've cut loose plenty of guys who they've spent 4ths or 5ths on without seeing a snap. Rookies like Lee Smith, Tyrone McKenzie, George Bussey, Kareem Brown, Clint Oldenburg, Garrett Mills, Ryan Claridge.

As for veterans... Barkevious Mingo, Albert Haynesworth, Isaac Sopoaga, Greg Lewis, Doug Gabriel, Chad Johnson. All these guys cost 5th rounders. Jonathan Sullivan was a more heralded prospect coming out of school and was traded for Bethel Johnson. The Patriots once traded Patrick Cobbs and Ross Tucker for 5th rounders. It's pretty hard to find a guy who was traded for that little who actually worked out (Talib was the only one I could find, and he had been a Pro Bowler at one point). Ealy's not exactly in distinguished company.

I'm sure if you pull up the Mingo thread, you'll find plenty of wishful thinkers who thought he would be the next big thing. I remember people thinking he'd be a potential replacement for Collins.

 

[Kontradiction]

Boston Sports journal has him losing all his 1 on 1s

He was actually very productive early on at practice today.

 

[primetime]

Rookies are not taking over Ninks role. Too involved and too complex for them right now.

It'll be either High, Shea or Van Noy

Or Grissom. All of the above, including the rookies, appear to be ahead of Ealy right now.

 

[maineman209]

Ok, but even so, that doesn't mean a lot because the Pats like to rotate their d-linemen a lot. Not sure if Carolina does or they keep the same players in.

And let's face it, if last year is included in it at all, it skews the data since Sheard was in the dog house most of last season. I am sure if you look at his playing time in 2015 vs. 2016, it is very different.

Most teams situationally rotate D-linemen (DTs and DEs) quite a bit these days.

CAROLINA DEs:
Ealy ... 623 (58%)
Johnson ... 543 (51%)
Addison ... 434 (40%)
Horton ... 332 (31%) - out for first four games
(Carolina also had two other active DEs who contributed about 300 snaps between them)

PATRIOTS DEs:
Long ... 677 (65%)
Sheard ... 579 (56%)
Flowers ... 563 (54%)
Nink ... 462 (44%) - out for first four games

These are season total defensive snap counts, NOT broken out by game-active. I think it makes the point, though.

 

[maineman209]

Rookies are not taking over Ninks role. Too involved and too complex for them right now.

It'll be either High, Shea or Van Noy

It seems somewhat unlikely to me that any ONE player "takes over Nink's role", at least not by Week-1. It seems more likely to me that, at first, two or more players may each take a piece of Nink's role and that the distribution will vary from opponent-to-opponent for awhile, perhaps even all season.

 

[Rob0729]

You are joking right?
You care more about who plays the first play of the game than who plays the most?
No wonder we can't agree on anything.
Carolinas 43 lbs are like NE de's? Come on. That's just crazy.

Lol


Rofl




I brother up Sheard as a player who came here and had to adjust to what we do. You brought up Anderson as a comparable player which he simply isn't.


This makes no sense.

We couldn't be farther apart and you seem to have no room in your mind to accept you are wrong about much of this. (Starts mean more than dorms played, Carolina LBs are DEs, the guy who plays the most de snaps is a situational pass rusher, etc, etc). There is no point in us furthering this debacle of a conversation and hijacking a good thread going back and forth.


Hmm that sounds a lot like "the first real indication" didn't someone say that?



Not sure what this is doing here. There is no relevance.


No it isn't. They paid the minimum the urgent team would expect. You think they offer more than needed if they have higher expectations? Seriously?




Again what is your point? You don't know what they expect from him so that means you can guess and be right?

Ealy played 623 snaps last season. Their other DEs played 543, 434,332,139,114,19
As a comparison the starting data played 780 and 703.
They faced 476 1st down plays, 334 2nd down plays and 212 3rd down plays.

It is totally incorrect to call the guy who play the most, 623 snaps, a situational pass rusher.

Ok, so Bill Belichick and I are stupid and you are the smart one. That idiot Belichick seems to agree with me about how DEs are used in Carolina, but he should have consulted you. Maybe Ealy would be a starter right now. From Belichick earlier in the week:

“I think we’ve asked him to do more in coverage than what he did at Carolina. Carolina doesn’t do a lot with their defensive ends in pass coverage,” Belichick said in comments distributed by the team. “We probably do significantly more than they do, not with their linebackers, but their ends that have coverage responsibilities more frequently, so those are things he’s had to adjust to. But, I mean, he’s a smart kid, he works hard, and he’s building his versatility. We’ll see how far that goes, but he’s got the ability to play inside, to play outside on the end of the line, to play in some coverage situations, to have a role in the kicking game, which is another thing that wasn’t a big role in Carolina. I don’t know how big it will be here, but it’s already, I would say, more than what he had there. We’ve asked him to do some new things, and we’ll evaluate those as we go through camp and see how it goes.”

Bill Belichick on Kony Ealy: He’s building his versatility

Clearly, Belichick doesn't know what he is talking about.

BTW, you do realize not all 4-3 defenses are remotely the same?

You brought up Sheard because you don't know what you are talking about. Sheard in his first three years was used very similarly as he was here. Ealy comes from a completely different system and used very differently. Anderson is a good comparison because he came from a different system where like Ealy seemed to have more of a pass rush role than anything else.

I didn't expect you to understand my point about expectations of Ealy. I don't care about his playing time. The fact that he was traded for so little shows what Carolina thought of the guy and his playing time. Ealy was an under performer who has legitimate talent. The expectations for him when the Pats traded for him should have been relatively low. They were for me. They Pats took a low risk flyer on a the guy in hopes he can live up to his potential. If he turns into a very good situational pass rusher like Anderson was, the Pats won the trade. Anything more is bonus.

 

[PatsFan2]

I am waiting for BB to post in this thread to give me an idea about his dept chart.

 

[Rob0729]

Most teams situationally rotate D-linemen (DTs and DEs) quite a bit these days.

CAROLINA DEs:
Ealy ... 623 (58%)
Johnson ... 543 (51%)
Addison ... 434 (40%)
Horton ... 332 (31%) - out for first four games
(Carolina also had two other active DEs who contributed about 300 snaps between them)

PATRIOTS DEs:
Long ... 677 (65%)
Sheard ... 579 (56%)
Flowers ... 563 (54%)
Nink ... 462 (44%) - out for first four games

These are season total defensive snap counts, NOT broken out by game-active. I think it makes the point, though.

I stand corrected. I guess I am just thinking of those old Carolina lines where they never rotated people and it was the same four players most of the game.