3. Baltimore's famed Defensive Hogs aren't looking so mighty this year. The Ravens have a well-deserved reputation for defensive prowess, especially up front as Ray Lewis has backed up a series of mega-studs on the DL -- 2009 Pro Bowler Haloti Ngata most recently.
You probably know that the 2000 Ravens fielded the stingiest defense of the Live Ball Era (1978-present), surrendering just 10.3 points per game. You might not know that those 2000 Ravens also fielded the best run defense of the Super Bowl Era, allowing a meager 2.69 yards per attempt on the ground. The 2007 Ravens are No. 4 on the list of best run defenses of the Super Bowl Era (2.84 YPA).
But Lewis & Co. have been merely average against the run this year, allowing 4.18 YPA (15th). Consider Week 3: Baltimore beat a lousy Cleveland team, 24-17. But they were gashed by Peyton Hillis: 22 attempts for 144 yards and 6.5 YPA. It was easily the best day in the three-year career of the unheralded ballcarrier.
Baltimore's Defensive Hogs are also having great difficulty forcing quarterbacks into mistakes. Baltimore right now ranks 28th at forcing Negative Pass Plays, with just 6.12 percent of opponent drop-backs resulting in a sack (five total) or interception (one).
The lack of production along the defensive front creates an incredible opportunity for the Patriots. They rank No. 1 right now on our Offensive Hog Index, with a decent run game (4.33 YPA) while suffering few mistakes in the passing game. Just 5.5 percent of Brady's 127 drop-backs have ended in a sack (five) or INT (two). Only three teams have been better at avoiding those critical mistakes that kill an offense.
