Jimmy's Value

[RobertWeathers]

I am curious will a lot of people be really mad if Jimmy is not traded and we carry him for the nest 2 years? I mean sure we lose out on draft capital which is never fun but wouldn't it be nice to have that extra security to know we have till 2018 FA to see how things look. Keep in mine Brady will be 40 next year and by the time the NFL season starters in 2018 he will be 41. But at that point it would not be a stretch if Brady is the single oldest player in the NFL.

I won't. I want TB12 to continue to kick ass and take names and Jimmy riding the pine and representing the greatest insurance policy on the planet. When the time comes, it comes.

With that said, this team has an incredible track record in keeping, developing and dealing quarterbacks. If they think Brissett will be just as good as Jimmy, well.....

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well Brady is signed through 2019 and Garoppolo through 2017 so what would you do?

Brady becomes tradable or dump-able after the 2017 season as the cap hit is "only" $14m

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Brady becomes tradable or dump-able after the 2017 season as the cap hit is "only" $14m

If you go down this path, you are talking about qb cap hit over 25mil in 17 and 18. That would be out of character for the Pats.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If you go down this path, you are talking about qb cap hit over 25mil in 17 and 18. That would be out of character for the Pats.

They save $8m in 2018 if he's gone.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

They save $8m in 2018 if he's gone.

Yeh, but JimmyGs contract will increase as well.

This is the part the doesn't fit in the keep jimmy narrative. His contract will avg over 18 a year, and without it starting this summer, they can't stagger the cap hit.

It just makes for a very messy cap hit. That's fine if you are very sure of what you have and he is worth that cost. But I don't know if I would feel comfortable with so much cap hit from a position that you aren't getting top 5 level talent.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Note: I am NOT advocating in any way that the Pats get rid of Tom. All this is discussion.

Yeh, but JimmyGs contract will increase as well.

This is the part the doesn't fit in the keep jimmy narrative. His contract will avg over 18 a year, and without it starting this summer, they can't stagger the cap hit.

What is the Jimmy narrative?

If you are implying that he is not worth $18m then of course he is not- yet.

They can certainly stagger the cap hit. They may allocate a little more at the position but so what?

You are using Osweiler's open market #s. His 1st 2 years is hes getting a payout of $21m in 2016 and in 2017 another $16m. We have no idea what Jimmy will theoretically get at the end of 2017. If he starts a whole bunch of games like Ossy did and plays well he will get something close to that from someone.

It just makes for a very messy cap hit. That's fine if you are very sure of what you have and he is worth that cost. But I don't know if I would feel comfortable with so much cap hit from a position that you aren't getting top 5 level talent.

In 2018 Tom's cap # is $22m. If he is no longer with the team it is $14m thus creating a savings of $8m. In 2019 its $22m again and if no longer /w the team would carry a dead cap number of $7m. So...net savings (assuming there aren't any re-dos) with Tom gone would be $23m.

It all comes down to the team wanting to pay a 41 year old Brady $22m (I think they will re-do the deal) or a 26 year old Jimmy G $16-$18m. In addition we have no idea if Jimmy is/isn't a Top 5 talent. In 3 games he could suck. In the next 3 games he could be 4-0 and average 300yds a game and a QB rating of 110.

 

[The_Riddler]

Don't trade JimmyG, he's the future. The GOAT isn't going to last forever...

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Note: I am NOT advocating in any way that the Pats get rid of Tom. All this is discussion.



What is the Jimmy narrative?

If you are implying that he is not worth $18m then of course he is not- yet.

They can certainly stagger the cap hit. They may allocate a little more at the position but so what?

You are using Osweiler's open market #s. His 1st 2 years is hes getting a payout of $21m in 2016 and in 2017 another $16m. We have no idea what Jimmy will theoretically get at the end of 2017. If he starts a whole bunch of games like Ossy did and plays well he will get something close to that from someone.



In 2018 Tom's cap # is $22m. If he is no longer with the team it is $14m thus creating a savings of $8m. In 2019 its $22m again and if no longer /w the team would carry a dead cap number of $7m. So...net savings (assuming there aren't any re-dos) with Tom gone would be $23m.

It all comes down to the team wanting to pay a 41 year old Brady $22m (I think they will re-do the deal) or Jimmy G $16-$18m. In addition we have no idea if Jimmy is/isn't a Top 5 talent. In 3 games he could suck. In the next 3 games he could be 4-0 and average 300yds a game and a QB rating of 110.

It is all guess work at this point for sure.

The Osweiler contract is the only fair comparison we have at this point, so it's impossible to work off any other potential deals. Jimmy would be a full ufa, so finding a young qb that hits the market with upside is almost non existent.

The reason jimmy will have the a lot of value in the trade market is that extra year is so important to smooth the cap raises. Without it, salaries kick up a lot sooner, and you get caught in the game of re-doing contracts and extending to avoid lasting cap problems.

My point was mainly that if Jimmy gets kept next year and re-upped in 2018 (which doesn't make much sense for Jimmy, but I will play along) you will have one year of manageable cap hit before it starts mirroring the upper echelon QBs. When you are also carrying 14m in 18 and 7m in 19 on Brady's dead deal, it's costing you much more in keeping Jimmy than Brady. So, if that is the figurative plan, it will have to be abundantly clear that Jimmy is the guy to cost you that much.

he may, in a vacuum, be worth that much, but I don't think he will to the patriots.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It is all guess work at this point for sure.

The Osweiler contract is the only fair comparison we have at this point, so it's impossible to work off any other potential deals. Jimmy would be a full ufa, so finding a young qb that hits the market with upside is almost non existent.

The reason jimmy will have the a lot of value in the trade market is that extra year is so important to smooth the cap raises. Without it, salaries kick up a lot sooner, and you get caught in the game of re-doing contracts and extending to avoid lasting cap problems.

My point was mainly that if Jimmy gets kept next year and re-upped in 2018 (which doesn't make much sense for Jimmy, but I will play along) you will have one year of manageable cap hit before it starts mirroring the upper echelon QBs. When you are also carrying 14m in 18 and 7m in 19 on Brady's dead deal, it's costing you much more in keeping Jimmy than Brady. So, if that is the figurative plan, it will have to be abundantly clear that Jimmy is the guy to cost you that much.

he may, in a vacuum, be worth that much, but I don't think he will to the patriots.

Good discussion.

IMO it'll all come to a head at the end of the 2017 season. One of the two will not be in Foxboro for 2018.

 

[farn]

There are no guarantees. Other than BB will do what he feels is best. TB plays longer, he doesn't : we have no idea if/when his play deteriorates. JG becomes a very good QB ? We have no idea after one game.

I trust BB to make the call. For now, JG has exceeded my expectations re on field success & TB has exceeded my expectations re longevity. Our fanbase is quite lucky to cheer for such a competent organization.

 

[IllegalContact]

They can contract around the 2 years jimmy and tommy would overlap on jimmys contract if it is a 6 or 7 year deal

If they did though the plan would prob be for Brady to be gone after 2018 at the latest

 

[dex13]

I seriously believe that Jimmy G could be the future after Brady but BB will have to cut/trade Brady by the end of next season for this to work. Don't see JG sitting on the bench for two plus seasons after getting "a taste" during the first four games of this season.

Due to this....I'm tempted to call the Browns and say, Jimmy G for Joe Thomas in week 5. What do you say? I do feel bad doing this to Jimmy G. Only problem is the 9 mil a year JT is owed (he is signed till 2018) so maybe we send them Cannon back. Use draft pick swaps to finish. Having Solder/Thomas at the tackles for the next few years pushes the chips in over the next few years. All depends on what BB and McDaniels really think of Brissett as a backup (and possible future).

 

[dex13]

Cuz Jimmy has shown more promise than Sam Bradford..and he went for a kings ransom.

I view the Bradford trade as analogous to the Saints trading their entire draft for Ricky Williams or the Redskins trading 3 first rounders plus more for RG3...someone in the front office jumped off a cliff and everyone around just watched. They are outliers and aren't good comparisons.

 

[supafly]

I view the Bradford trade as analogous to the Saints trading their entire draft for Ricky Williams or the Redskins trading 3 first rounders plus more for RG3...someone in the front office jumped off a cliff and everyone around just watched. They are outliers and aren't good comparisons.

While I totally agree with you, there have been other examples such as Charlie Whitehurst and Kevin Kolb, so I can see why people go there.

At the end of the day, I'd be quite happy with a first round pick, assuming his play holds up and Belichick trades him to the right team.

 

[carmelo15]

I seriously believe that Jimmy G could be the future after Brady but BB will have to cut/trade Brady by the end of next season for this to work. Don't see JG sitting on the bench for two plus seasons after getting "a taste" during the first four games of this season.

Due to this....I'm tempted to call the Browns and say, Jimmy G for Joe Thomas in week 5. What do you say? I do feel bad doing this to Jimmy G. Only problem is the 9 mil a year JT is owed (he is signed till 2018) so maybe we send them Cannon back. Use draft pick swaps to finish. Having Solder/Thomas at the tackles for the next few years pushes the chips in over the next few years. All depends on what BB and McDaniels really think of Brissett as a backup (and possible future).

Browns have 2 1st and 2nds those picks will have to come out way.
Even if it's Thomas and both 2nds (which will be 33-38picks)

 

[Gronk]

Good discussion.

IMO it'll all come to a head at the end of the 2017 season. One of the two will not be in Foxboro for 2018.

If Garoppolo is still here through the 2017 season then that's gotta be because they'd be making a switch for 2018. It would make no sense for JG to resign here after his rookie contract is up if he wasn't going to start right away.

If they genuinely expect Tom to play out his current deal, and they think that Brissett can be a good QB too (I know JG is beloved by many already, but too often this is discussed as if it's the Matrix and only one man can be the next QB and if they choose wrong the team will implode and be relegated to the Arena League or something), then I think the obvious best course of action is to move JG at some point in the 2016 offseason. Personally I'd have to take that Thomas and a 1st deal in week 5 that's been floated (probably only here though...).

But if he's staying thru 2017 they they either need to commit to him to start and move on from Brady, or face having developed JG into an either playable or tradable asset that they don't intend to play and can no longer trade. And that doesn't make much sense to me, or fit their general MO. To the extent there is any decision to be made - and there might not be, BB might be all-in on Tom through 2019 and all this discussion is for naught - they need to be ready to make a call on this after this season.

 

[patman52]

2- 2nds from a team like the Browns or Bears

 

[RobertWeathers]

If Garoppolo is still here through the 2017 season then that's gotta be because they'd be making a switch for 2018. It would make no sense for JG to resign here after his rookie contract is up if he wasn't going to start right away.

If they genuinely expect Tom to play out his current deal, and they think that Brissett can be a good QB too (I know JG is beloved by many already, but too often this is discussed as if it's the Matrix and only one man can be the next QB and if they choose wrong the team will implode and be relegated to the Arena League or something), then I think the obvious best course of action is to move JG at some point in the 2016 offseason. Personally I'd have to take that Thomas and a 1st deal in week 5 that's been floated (probably only here though...).

But if he's staying thru 2017 they they either need to commit to him to start and move on from Brady, or face having developed JG into an either playable or tradable asset that they don't intend to play and can no longer trade. And that doesn't make much sense to me, or fit their general MO. To the extent there is any decision to be made - and there might not be, BB might be all-in on Tom through 2019 and all this discussion is for naught - they need to be ready to make a call on this after this season.

Good thoughts. The only reason I have them both here in 2017 is Tom's cap number next year is a monster.

To your point, if some idiot team comes along and offers BB 2 #1s for Jimmy this offseason....

 

[Nunchucks]

Jimmy had 1 decent game against a team with no tape on him. Settle the faulk down.

 

[patsfan13]

What if BB thinks Brissett is/will be bette by 2018?

We won't see what Brissett is doing running the scout team BB will watch film of every practice and willl get a sense of what Brissett is/will become what his football iq. work ethic is.

This is about more than just Brady and JG.

This is a first wrld problem.

Due to the way Brady builds his life around playing football IMO he will play at the GOAT level through age 42.