Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

[Rob0729]

100% NOT true.
Jacksonville is QB needy.
The jets just drafted a top 3 qb 3 years ago. They are drafting based upon QUALITY of QB not need.
SF has a QB that took them to a SB. They are drafting on QUALITY OF QB not need.
The rest of the teams will trade up for the player not the need.
This is a unique QBs class loaded with quality that teams are fighting to get.

So you are telling me that the Jets were fine with Sam Darnold who they traded up to get with the third pick just a few years ago, but Zach Wilson is so good that they traded Darnold away for a sixth rounder this year and a second and fourth next year? Really? Darnold was a disappointment in NY. That is the fact. If they were happy with him, they could trade the second pick in the draft for the motherload.

And if the 49ers were so confident in Garoppolo, why did they trade three first rounders to get up to pick a QB that no one is even sure who they will take (although most think it is Mac Jones who only a few months ago was rated the fifth best QB in the draft by most experts).

And tell me again when has a draft produced four or five solid QBs in the first round. You keep on talking about the last five years, but none of those years produced more than two "Pro Bowl" QBs. And now you think this year is so special that it will have four or five?

 

[Rob0729]

Uhm, how many misses have BillB made in the past 5yrs in the draft? Those are wasted picks and time, no?

So you trust Belichick to trade away two future #1s to draft someone this year. If he sucks so bad, we are better off him having more picks not less.

 

[Rob0729]

No I'm talking about the first picks the Pats made in each draft and gave you the first two to widen the sample size to your benefit so they had two chances to hit. The fact that the Pats have frequently traded out and got some bust second rounder already hurts your argument that we need to be bullish in safeguarding are future early picks. Alot of the time we don't even use them.

Yes Collins, Jones and Thuney were great picks. But we are talking about the value of trading those picks relative to what it means for the Pats. The best players the Pats did hit on with picks, rarely become longterm guys. Hightower, McCourty and Gronkowski are outliers not the rule. So if you are only really getting 3 long term guys and you have to go back 11 years to count them (and in McCourty and Gronks case you do need to do what I said and take the first two picks in a draft) then you are talking about 3 of 22 being hits and contributors for a sizeable period of time. The context of why other guys left doesn't matter. What matters is what we got out of the pick both in player quality and how much they specifically contributed to NE. Jones is an amazing player... who likely built a HOF career in Arizona and the pick we spent on him had limited value.

Again that's double talk. If the argument is they draft badly so they might get a bust QB, then why do you care about picks being traded at all? The idea that 3 of them will be a hit is insane even if you think they draft well. And that will never equal the potential of hitting on a QB. The point is people tend to overvalue early draft picks in general because of the potential but ignore the reality. Most teams don't find amazing players in the first round of every draft over a long period of time to outweigh the benefit to losing them for a shot at the right QB.

Just because the Pats have had a draught in the draft doesn't mean they won't turn it around. This has happened before. Belichick went through a draft draught in the late 2000s and the turned it around in the early teens and did very well for a while and then hit a draught the last few years. That is how the draft works for most teams.

And again, we aren't talking about mortgaging the future to trade up to have the Pats' pick of QBs. At least three QBs are going to be off the board when the Pats pick even if they trade all the way up to #4. They are going to get the fourth best QB on the board. Even good QB drafts don't produce more than two, maybe three quality QBs in the first round. Even the 1983 draft only produced four quality QBs in the first round. And people have been waiting for another draft that good for almost 40 years.

 

[farn]

If you don't have a franchise QB and think you can get a franchise QB in the draft, you get him.

Dugger, Harry, Wynn, Rivers, Jones, Brown, Easely, Collins, Jones, Solder....

Those are the first picks made by NE in the last 10 drafts. Don't tell me any 3 or 4 of those is worth more than a franchise QB.

I think the issue is more “sure, we’ll trade them all for Mahomes, but none / few of them for Trubisky”.

 

[imahobgoblin]

So you are telling me that the Jets were fine with Sam Darnold who they traded up to get with the third pick just a few years ago, but Zach Wilson is so good that they traded Darnold away for a sixth rounder this year and a second and fourth next year? Really? Darnold was a disappointment in NY. That is the fact. If they were happy with him, they could trade the second pick in the draft for the motherload.

And if the 49ers were so confident in Garoppolo, why did they trade three first rounders to get up to pick a QB that no one is even sure who they will take (although most think it is Mac Jones who only a few months ago was rated the fifth best QB in the draft by most experts).

And tell me again when has a draft produced four or five solid QBs in the first round. You keep on talking about the last five years, but none of those years produced more than two "Pro Bowl" QBs. And now you think this year is so special that it will have four or five?

Regarding your Darnold point, I think Darnold is a better QB than what we have seen in the last few years. NYJ has a special talent for ruining players. It is such an unstable and directionless organization that I believe they will ruin Zach Wilson too. Even Trevor could not survive it.

 

[Rob0729]

Fields was ticketed as the second best player in the draft for many many months. The other 3 are the risers.

And there are questions about Fields' work ethic that may be the reason why.

 

[lancerman]

Their method is not sustainable.

It’s been pretty sustainable the last few years

 

[50-yard-line]

It’s the other way around. In a hard cap, the draft is the cornerstone for which your team is built. FA is gravy.

Sure, and maybe that cornerstone is Andrews, Mason, Onwenu, Cowart, Uche, Jackson, Jones, Dugger, Williams, Meyers, Harris, Michel, White, etc.

The Pats DID NOT put themselves in CAP hell in future years with their FA binge this year. They came into the year with a ton of cash, and a ton more next year, and very few players on their second contract. So they grabbed a bunch of guys for their second contracts. The draft cornerstone is really only 4 years long, until payday, adn when you're winning as much as the Pats were - well, we've seen it repeatedly, where their second contract guys get way overpaid elsewhere. Miami paid $15 million for one year of Van Noy. Detroit broke the bank for Collins after Cleveland broke the bank for Collins. The Pats get poached repeatedly.

The only big potential issue with what BB did to fill that middle class back in this year is whether or not the guys they grabbed will fit, which they would know if they had raised them from pups.

BB's been pretty good at identifying what he wants and making it work (except in desperation moves, or reaches).

Also, when BB said that everything they were doing was for Brady, he wasn't lying. Dump a first-round pick to grab a rental receiver (which they fortunately recovered). Trade picks for vets, because...well, how many rookies typically start on SB teams? And of course, Roger and the NYFL have done their damndest to cripple the juggernaut. Deflategate was a joke; videogate was a bigger joke.

The team is now retooled, looking for someone to take the lead at QB.

If Brady was still hare, would anyone be happy with anything less than a SB with the new roster?

 

[Soliel]

I want us to trade up but two firsts and two fourths is hard. That said, if the guy we got was any good it would be worth it but there’s no way to know

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Jets were stupid to trade away Darnold, they still had him on the cheap and had yet to give him anything resembling NFL talent to play with. They are loaded with picks because when the Jets do draft a good player, that player wants out and they get picks in return for him.

A much better play for the Jets would have been to trade #2 away for a King's ransom, stay in the top 8 or so picks, grab one of the WR or Pitts, then they still have the 23rd pick, three picks in the top 100 again next year, plus whatever haul they would have gotten for #2.

Now Wilson will come into the NFL to a team deviod of talent, where he will most likely fail miserably.

 

[ivanvamp]

by that logic, doesn't it stand to reason he hasn't played against NFL talent, also?

Did you read the post I was replying to?

 

[captain stone]

Are you simply ignoring the free agent additions? If we traded for a QB tomorrow (Mariota, Jimmy or Bridgewater), we would likely to win a couple of playoff games. The draft is gravy.

What a foolish statement.

The draft is Never, EVER "gravy."

Please don't be like the knobs on Team Bill...

 

[captain stone]

If Brady was still hare, would anyone be happy with anything less than a SB with the new roster?

Playoffs? Absolutely, especially if there are now 7 teams from each conference in it...

Division title? Maybe, but Barfalo's here to stay for awhile unfortunately, so it'll be tougher...

Bye week? Doubtful, with KC being guaranteed 6 wins per year from that lousy division (sound familiar?) and only one ****ing bye to be given...

Too many holes here still here at WR, NT, DE, WLB & #4 CB (and that's IF Gilmore & JCJack return)...

 

[50-yard-line]

Playoffs? Absolutely, especially if there are now 7 teams from each conference in it...

Division title? Maybe, but Barfalo's here to stay for awhile unfortunately, so it'll be tougher...

Bye week? Doubtful, with KC being guaranteed 6 wins per year from that lousy division (sound familiar?) and only one ****ing bye to be given...

Too many holes here still here at WR, NT, DE, WLB & #4 CB (and that's IF Gilmore & JCJack return)...

Cripes you're tough.

Brady's won SBs with lesser weapons than Smith, Henry, Agholor, Bourne, Meyers, and White. (And Harris and Michel isn't a bad running combo.)

The D is very strong on paper.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Playoffs? Absolutely, especially if there are now 7 teams from each conference in it...

Division title? Maybe, but Barfalo's here to stay for awhile unfortunately, so it'll be tougher...

Bye week? Doubtful, with KC being guaranteed 6 wins per year from that lousy division (sound familiar?) and only one ****ing bye to be given...

Too many holes here still here at WR, NT, DE, WLB & #4 CB (and that's IF Gilmore & JCJack return)...

I’m hoping we invest in WR and QB early on. Then focus on a deep secondary draft later on.

 

[Ivan]

I think the issue is more “sure, we’ll trade them all for Mahomes, but none / few of them for Trubisky”.

This.

 

[captain stone]

Cripes you're tough.

Brady's won SBs with lesser weapons than Smith, Henry, Agholor, Bourne, Meyers, and White. (And Harris and Michel isn't a bad running combo.)

The D is very strong on paper.

I'd like the 2021 Pats + Brady version's chances even better if the Billdos still sucked like they always used to do, and there were 2 byes again...

 

[Ollie]

I'd like the 2021 Pats + Brady version's chances even better if the Billdos still sucked like they always used to do, and there were 2 byes again...

As bad as we were last year with Cam i didn't really miss Brady as the whole team was so bad that i don't believe having Brady around would have made much difference. I think this year we may really miss him. This team looks much more competitive and not having Brady behind center could be the difference in our chances of going all the way.

 

[Sicilian]

What a foolish statement.

The draft is Never, EVER "gravy."

Please don't be like the knobs on Team Bill...

I don't like the term Team Bill (because it implies anti-Brady), but I think from your perspective I'd be firmly in that camp. And even I don't think the draft is gravy. Maybe for one year (because you can't count on rookies being impactful immediately), but long term you need the draft to maintain success.

All this to say, don't lump all us "knobs" together. We are a very diverse group

 

[jdlboot14]

Answer: NO

I'm even going to bet that after 2 years, Lawrence and Wilson are going to be seen as busts by some.
Not because they can't play, but because of the worthless teams they're going to. And how fast the media turns on people who don't win immediately - like Darnold, Mayfield, Mariota, and even Tannehill and Josh Allen - who've turned into apparent franchise QB's after rough starts.