Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

[mgteich]

I think if they get Monds it will be bottom half of 2nd round or early 3rd round.

sure and perhaps someone will overdraft him 10 spots earlier and we all say that they got a bad deal for reaching.

 

[mgteich]

So .500 is the goal? Btw we weren’t beating the chiefs with newton

Who is trading up to draft a crappy qb? The whole point is that it is the only real way to get a good one.

The worst analysis you can find of fields or Lance is that they have enormous skill but need to be coached up. If you can’t devour resources to a guy like that who can be your franchise QB for 10+ years what are you doing? Where will you find someone better?
how do you win if you draft other players and have garbage at QB?

If necessary, I would think that we should be able to hire an additional coach or two to help develop the skills and to develop nutrition and health habits of our top draftee.

 

[Rob0729]

I wrote Pro Bowl worthy.

We're going down a crazy rabbit hole as you listed a bunch of QBs I called busts. I wrote 10 of 16.

Those are your chances.

The others are either unproven (Love) or busts.

You then listed a bunch of low rounders and asked me if I'd give 3 1sts for a guy that got drafted in the 4th? It's a bizarre question. Just because a guy is 5th in any given year doesn't mean he's the equivalent of the 5th guy the previous year. It's bizarre logic.

There are years in which 4 or 5 QBs are taken (or heck, 7!) and then there are years in which 1 is taken in the 1st, and that's EJ Manuel. Just because Ryan Nassib was taken 5th that year (in the 4th round) it doesn't say anything about Lamar Jackson (the 5th taken a few years later).

There are five QBs likely be taken in the top ten not because they are all worthy to be picked there, but because there are so many QB needy teams and people think next year's draft isn't strong for QBs. Two or three months ago, many people didn't even have all five in going in the first round. Now all are top ten picks. If there were truly five top 10 worthy QBs based on talent, you might have a point. But trading up for a QB who might have gone late first or in the second round in another year isn't a smart move.

And we haven't factored in that this year was a tough year to evaluate players to begin with because of COVID.

 

[Ring 6]

If necessary, I would think that we should be able to hire an additional coach or two to help develop the skills and to develop nutrition and health habits of our top draftee.

This is the value I see in newton. He has a year in the offense so rather than teaching a starter the offense for a month we can focus on getting the rookie ready and have him playing by October.
As far as your idea, sure, it’s all in, this is the future of the franchise.

 

[Rob0729]

No the odds aren't....

Over the past 10 years these are the top 2 draft picks the Pats had. Dugger, Uche, Harry, Williams, Wynn, Michel, Rivers, Garcia, Jones (Cyrus), Thuney, Browns, Richards, Easely, Jimmy G, Collins, Dobson, Jones (Chandler), Hightower, Solder, Dowling.

That's 20 picks over a decade. Some of those are good. Specifically Wynn, Thuney, Chandler Jones, Collins, Hightower and Solder. But that's 6 of 20 over a decade. And of those 6 Jones and Collins did not get past their rookie contracts and ended up not being longterm contributors, Wynn has severe injury issues and has been in and out of the line up. Thuney we did not sign past his rookie contract and franchised him once.

I guess you could say Jimmy G, but again injury issues and he started 1 full game for us and was injured in his second start. And maybe Michel who has been spotty and certainly isn't some big time running back.

So really Hightower and solder were the only two in that decade of early draft picks for us that ended up being big time longterm contributors for an extended period of time. Did those others help? Undoubtably. But not enough to fear missing out on the chance at one of them if you really like a QB.

You are highly overvaluing what we will get out of these picks. If Belichick really loves a QB it's worth more than the potential of what you might give up if you miss on them.

Now you are including second round picks to prove a point?

And just because the Pats let Collins, Jones, and Thuney go doesn't change that they were great picks. Jones shot his way out of town because of a strange synthetic pot incident. And Thuney and Collins priced themselves out of New England. But the difference is five or six or seven years from now when the first round picks the Pats would have selected become free agents, Belichick will likely be gone and the next GM may be willing to pay guys like them to keep them here.

And again, I said the Pats should trade up if they truly believe Fields or Lance are franchise QBs. But they have to really believe it. Not trade up to get a QB just to get a QB high in the first round because it is the best way to get a franchise QB because odds are that even if love him and think he will be a franchise QB, they will likely be wrong.

And if you think the Pats draft so badly, what makes you think they will select the right QB? Odds are good that at least one of the top five QBs drafted in the first round this year will be a complete bust. What makes you think the Pats won't use three first round picks to draft that guy?

 

[Rob0729]

And after you make those 3 picks you have no QB and can’t win. Brilliant.

And if you use three first round draft picks on a QB just to get a QB high in the first round and he sucks, you set your franchise back for like a half decade. That is why you see a lot of teams that chase QBs high being consistent losers. I mean how many first round draft picks have the Jags, Browns, Bucs, Washington, Titans, and Jets wasted on QBs? The Bucs and Titans didn't even become good until they acquired veteran QBs via trade or free agency.

 

[Ring 6]

There are five QBs likely be taken in the top ten not because they are all worthy to be picked there, but because there are so many QB needy teams and people think next year's draft isn't strong for QBs. Two or three months ago, many people didn't even have all five in going in the first round. Now all are top ten picks. If there were truly five top 10 worthy QBs based on talent, you might have a point. But trading up for a QB who might have gone late first or in the second round in another year isn't a smart move.

And we haven't factored in that this year was a tough year to evaluate players to begin with because of COVID.

100% NOT true.
Jacksonville is QB needy.
The jets just drafted a top 3 qb 3 years ago. They are drafting based upon QUALITY of QB not need.
SF has a QB that took them to a SB. They are drafting on QUALITY OF QB not need.
The rest of the teams will trade up for the player not the need.
This is a unique QBs class loaded with quality that teams are fighting to get.

 

[Ring 6]

And if you use three first round draft picks on a QB just to get a QB high in the first round and he sucks, you set your franchise back for like a half decade. That is why you see a lot of teams that chase QBs high being consistent losers. I mean how many first round draft picks have the Jags, Browns, Bucs, Washington, Titans, and Jets wasted on QBs? The Bucs and Titans didn't even become good until they acquired veteran QBs via trade or free agency.

If you don’t get a QBs you set your franchise back further unless you like 8-8

 

[upstater1]

There are five QBs likely be taken in the top ten not because they are all worthy to be picked there, but because there are so many QB needy teams and people think next year's draft isn't strong for QBs. Two or three months ago, many people didn't even have all five in going in the first round. Now all are top ten picks. If there were truly five top 10 worthy QBs based on talent, you might have a point. But trading up for a QB who might have gone late first or in the second round in another year isn't a smart move.

And we haven't factored in that this year was a tough year to evaluate players to begin with because of COVID.

Fields was ticketed as the second best player in the draft for many many months. The other 3 are the risers.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Fields was ticketed as the second best player in the draft for many many months. The other 3 are the risers.

maybe the second best qb, but not player.

in every draft there are qb’s that rise late.

 

[upstater1]

maybe the second best qb, but not player.

in every draft there are qb’s that rise late.

I saw him going #2 back in September. Whether that's 2nd best player or not, people thought he was the 2nd to go because of the premium on QBs. In other words, he's been pegged this high from the very start of predicting the draft.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I saw him going #2 back in September. Whether that's 2nd best player or not, people thought he was the 2nd to go because of the premium on QBs. In other words, he's been pegged this high from the very start of predicting the draft.

fair enough, but being “pegged” does not make him the second best player in this draft.

 

[Ollie]

100% NOT true.
Jacksonville is QB needy.
The jets just drafted a top 3 qb 3 years ago. They are drafting based upon QUALITY of QB not need.
SF has a QB that took them to a SB. They are drafting on QUALITY OF QB not need.
The rest of the teams will trade up for the player not the need.
This is a unique QBs class loaded with quality that teams are fighting to get.

If Sam Darnold was performing at the level the jets wanted him to and expected of him then the Jets wouldn't be drafting a QB. Darnold might be a top 3 pick and was considered a good pick in a good class of qbs for that year but he has been disappointing and the Jets feel they need a QB that is better than Darnold who hasn't worked out.
SF has a qb who can't stay healthy so they need a qb they can rely on. If JG was able to stay healthy it's possible they don't trade up.

 

[Ollie]

So .500 is the goal? Btw we weren’t beating the chiefs with newton

Who is trading up to draft a crappy qb? The whole point is that it is the only real way to get a good one.

The worst analysis you can find of fields or Lance is that they have enormous skill but need to be coached up. If you can’t devour resources to a guy like that who can be your franchise QB for 10+ years what are you doing? Where will you find someone better?
how do you win if you draft other players and have garbage at QB?

Fields and Lance have potential but it is possible they they won't fulfill that promise. Lance in particular is a very real risk. I think it might be worth taking the risk but you act like they just need some coaching and its a definite that they will be great franchise qbs which isn't the case.

 

[Ring 6]

If Sam Darnold was performing at the level the jets wanted him to and expected of him then the Jets wouldn't be drafting a QB. Darnold might be a top 3 pick and was considered a good pick in a good class of qbs for that year but he has been disappointing and the Jets feel they need a QB that is better than Darnold who hasn't worked out.
SF has a qb who can't stay healthy so they need a qb they can rely on. If JG was able to stay healthy it's possible they don't trade up.

And if they did not think the QBs they were taking were potential superstars they wouldn’t be taking them.

 

[Ring 6]

Fields and Lance have potential but it is possible they they won't fulfill that promise. Lance in particular is a very real risk. I think it might be worth taking the risk but you act like they just need some coaching and its a definite that they will be great franchise qbs which isn't the case.

I don’t act like that at all. I have laid out the entire concept through this thread and none of it was anything like it’s definite they will be great franchise QBs.

 

[Ollie]

And if they did not think the QBs they were taking were potential superstars they wouldn’t be taking them.

Obviously they aren't going to draft a qb they don't think has the potnetial to succeed but that wasn't what you said. You said that the Jets and SF weren't drafting out of need. There is absolutely a need for a qb at both teams. One QB can't stay on the field and the other hasn't lived up to expectations. If Darnold had fulfilled expectations and JG was healthy neither team would be drafting a qb just on the basis that this years qb class is too good to pass up.

 

[Ring 6]

Obviously they aren't going to draft a qb they don't think has the potnetial to succeed but that wasn't what you said. You said that the Jets and SF weren't drafting out of need. There is absolutely a need for a qb at both teams. One QB can't stay on the field and the other hasn't lived up to expectations. If Darnold had fulfilled expectations and JG was healthy neither team would be drafting a qb just on the basis that this years qb class is too good to pass up.

No I said they aren’t unworthy of being drafted there and are only being drafted by some bizarre idea that teams are more QB needy this year. Both teams were not QBs needy and see great value in these players. If they weren’t worthy of the spot, they would have kept their guy, which both seriously considered doing.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, it is worth trading up for Lance. HOWEVER, it seems that the best trade will be to #4, where we would draft Fields.

 

[lancerman]

Now you are including second round picks to prove a point?

And just because the Pats let Collins, Jones, and Thuney go doesn't change that they were great picks. Jones shot his way out of town because of a strange synthetic pot incident. And Thuney and Collins priced themselves out of New England. But the difference is five or six or seven years from now when the first round picks the Pats would have selected become free agents, Belichick will likely be gone and the next GM may be willing to pay guys like them to keep them here.

And again, I said the Pats should trade up if they truly believe Fields or Lance are franchise QBs. But they have to really believe it. Not trade up to get a QB just to get a QB high in the first round because it is the best way to get a franchise QB because odds are that even if love him and think he will be a franchise QB, they will likely be wrong.

And if you think the Pats draft so badly, what makes you think they will select the right QB? Odds are good that at least one of the top five QBs drafted in the first round this year will be a complete bust. What makes you think the Pats won't use three first round picks to draft that guy?

No I'm talking about the first picks the Pats made in each draft and gave you the first two to widen the sample size to your benefit so they had two chances to hit. The fact that the Pats have frequently traded out and got some bust second rounder already hurts your argument that we need to be bullish in safeguarding are future early picks. Alot of the time we don't even use them.

Yes Collins, Jones and Thuney were great picks. But we are talking about the value of trading those picks relative to what it means for the Pats. The best players the Pats did hit on with picks, rarely become longterm guys. Hightower, McCourty and Gronkowski are outliers not the rule. So if you are only really getting 3 long term guys and you have to go back 11 years to count them (and in McCourty and Gronks case you do need to do what I said and take the first two picks in a draft) then you are talking about 3 of 22 being hits and contributors for a sizeable period of time. The context of why other guys left doesn't matter. What matters is what we got out of the pick both in player quality and how much they specifically contributed to NE. Jones is an amazing player... who likely built a HOF career in Arizona and the pick we spent on him had limited value.

Again that's double talk. If the argument is they draft badly so they might get a bust QB, then why do you care about picks being traded at all? The idea that 3 of them will be a hit is insane even if you think they draft well. And that will never equal the potential of hitting on a QB. The point is people tend to overvalue early draft picks in general because of the potential but ignore the reality. Most teams don't find amazing players in the first round of every draft over a long period of time to outweigh the benefit to losing them for a shot at the right QB.