Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

[PP2]

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Lawrence, Jones, Wilson, Fields, Lance

Jets being the idiots they are, have let it slip that they are going to grab Wilson.

 

[upstater1]

Who said that the Pats would get Justin Herbert if they gave up three first round picks?

Daniel Jones was selected with the same pick Herbert went one year earlier. Would you give up three first round picks for Daniel Jones? Because you are more likely to get a QB the quality of Jones than Herbert if you trade up.

And Herbert was the second QB taken last year. The Pats would be trading up for the fourth or fifth one taken. That is a big difference.

And even then, the second QB taken in the draft isn’t a guarantee. You talk about the last five years. In the last five years, the second QB taken include Jones, Sam Darnold, and Carson Wentz. Two of those QBs were traded away this offseason.

Why are you more than likely?

8 of the 10 hits on QBs made Pro Bowls. Daniel Jones is the worst of the 10. Look at my list again: Mahomes, Herbert, Mayfield, Murray, Burrow, Watson, Allen, Jackson. That's 8.

Now, there were 16 picks overall, so sure, your chances of landing a Pro Bowler are 50/50, but your chances of landing a player at least as good as Jared Goff or Daniel Jones are considerably better than that.

And like I said, there is no 100% guarantee that all 3 of your 1st rounders will be as good as Nate Solder. At best they will be, but it's quite likely that one busts.

We can't look at the QB draft numbers and assess probabilities without doing the same for the Patriots 3 1st round picks.

 

[RIpats88]

we wont know until draft night. but it is interesting how does Bill view these QB's? I dont think he would hesitate to move up and draft a guy if he feels they are "the guy"

his whole free agency basically built the team like they are going to have a QB on a rookie deal for the next few years.

 

[lancerman]

Sorry I would rather have three solid players, possibly three Pro Bowl level or better players than one good and not great QB. I’d rather trade a second for Garoppolo who is a good, not great QB and keep the three first rounders.

You aren't guaranteed 3 solid players and a franchise QB could be a 10-15 year mainstay while this team has really only kept McCourty, Hightower and Gronk as longterm early draft picks in the last decade. You are making a massive assumption on those picks that isn't likely to pan out based on history against potentially getting your guy at the most important position. And Jimmy is injured far too often to be considered reliable.

 

[lancerman]

we wont know until draft night. but it is interesting how does Bill view these QB's? I dont think he would hesitate to move up and draft a guy if he feels they are "the guy"

his whole free agency basically built the team like they are going to have a QB on a rookie deal for the next few years.

To justify trading up Bill needs to think two or three of Jones, Mac, Fields, or Lance is someone who can be the QB of the future. If he does, do it because the value in being right is worth more than the risk of what you may lose (which is also a risk anyways). I expect Lawrence to go first and Wilson seems like to go to the Jets. So if two of those guys are people you think are worth it, get them because they likely won't be there at 15.

 

[Rob0729]

Why are you more than likely?

8 of the 10 hits on QBs made Pro Bowls. Daniel Jones is the worst of the 10. Look at my list again: Mahomes, Herbert, Mayfield, Murray, Burrow, Watson, Allen, Jackson. That's 8.

Now, there were 16 picks overall, so sure, your chances of landing a Pro Bowler are 50/50, but your chances of landing a player at least as good as Jared Goff or Daniel Jones are considerably better than that.

And like I said, there is no 100% guarantee that all 3 of your 1st rounders will be as good as Nate Solder. At best they will be, but it's quite likely that one busts.

We can't look at the QB draft numbers and assess probabilities without doing the same for the Patriots 3 1st round picks.

When did Herbert, Mayfield, or Burrow make the Pro Bowl? Burrow hasn't even played a full season yet (obviously not his fault). And I certainly wouldn't use three first round picks on Baker Mayfield. We will have to see about Herbert and Burrow and whether their first year success will continue or teams will develop books on them and their production goes down.

And of your list, only Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson have shown any consistency yet.

And you said the last five years. Why are you ignoring that during that time, 10 QBs who have been average or worse including Jones, Haskins, Darnold, Rosen, Trubisky, Goff, Wentz, Tua, Lynch, and Love. So by your own standard, you only have about a 50% chance of getting a QB worthy to build a franchise around. So you want to use three first rounders to have a 50% chance you get an above average QB or better.

You could spend three first round picks and end up with a player like Goff or you could have traded for actually Jared Goff and the Rams would have given you picks to take his bloated salary off their hands because they wanted him and his salary gone that bad.

And again, the Pats are not trading up for the first or second or even third QB being drafted. They would trading up for the fourth or fifth QB selected. Not one of the "Pro Bowl" QBs you listed were selected lower than the third QB taken off the board other than Jackson. Maybe we should do a list of the fourth and fifth QBs taken off the board over the last five years and do an analysis. Tell me which of these QBs you would give up three first rounders for:

Love
Hurts
Lock
Grier
Rosen
Jackson
Kizer
Webb
Hackenberg
Brissett

The only one from that list I would consider doing is Jackson. So based on the fourth and fifth QB taken in the draft over the last five years, you have a 10% chance of getting good QB.

 

[Rob0729]

You aren't guaranteed 3 solid players and a franchise QB could be a 10-15 year mainstay while this team has really only kept McCourty, Hightower and Gronk as longterm early draft picks in the last decade. You are making a massive assumption on those picks that isn't likely to pan out based on history against potentially getting your guy at the most important position. And Jimmy is injured far too often to be considered reliable.

The odds are far more likely that you will get three solid players than one franchise QB especially when you factor in the fact that the Pats would be spending three first round picks on the fourth or fifth best QB on the board. They are not trading for Lawrence or Wilson.

 

[upstater1]

When did Herbert, Mayfield, or Burrow make the Pro Bowl? Burrow hasn't even played a full season yet (obviously not his fault). And I certainly wouldn't use three first round picks on Baker Mayfield. We will have to see about Herbert and Burrow and whether their first year success will continue or teams will develop books on them and their production goes down.

And of your list, only Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson have shown any consistency yet.

And you said the last five years. Why are you ignoring that during that time, 10 QBs who have been average or worse including Jones, Haskins, Darnold, Rosen, Trubisky, Goff, Wentz, Tua, Lynch, and Love. So by your own standard, you only have about a 50% chance of getting a QB worthy to build a franchise around. So you want to use three first rounders to have a 50% chance you get an above average QB or better.

You could spend three first round picks and end up with a player like Goff or you could have traded for actually Jared Goff and the Rams would have given you picks to take his bloated salary off their hands because they wanted him and his salary gone that bad.

And again, the Pats are not trading up for the first or second or even third QB being drafted. They would trading up for the fourth or fifth QB selected. Not one of the "Pro Bowl" QBs you listed were selected lower than the third QB taken off the board other than Jackson. Maybe we should do a list of the fourth and fifth QBs taken off the board over the last five years and do an analysis. Tell me which of these QBs you would give up three first rounders for:

Love
Hurts
Lock
Grier
Rosen
Jackson
Kizer
Webb
Hackenberg
Brissett

The only one from that list I would consider doing is Jackson. So based on the fourth and fifth QB taken in the draft over the last five years, you have a 10% chance of getting good QB.

I wrote Pro Bowl worthy.

We're going down a crazy rabbit hole as you listed a bunch of QBs I called busts. I wrote 10 of 16.

Those are your chances.

The others are either unproven (Love) or busts.

You then listed a bunch of low rounders and asked me if I'd give 3 1sts for a guy that got drafted in the 4th? It's a bizarre question. Just because a guy is 5th in any given year doesn't mean he's the equivalent of the 5th guy the previous year. It's bizarre logic.

There are years in which 4 or 5 QBs are taken (or heck, 7!) and then there are years in which 1 is taken in the 1st, and that's EJ Manuel. Just because Ryan Nassib was taken 5th that year (in the 4th round) it doesn't say anything about Lamar Jackson (the 5th taken a few years later).

 

[lancerman]

The odds are far more likely that you will get three solid players than one franchise QB especially when you factor in the fact that the Pats would be spending three first round picks on the fourth or fifth best QB on the board. They are not trading for Lawrence or Wilson.

No the odds aren't....

Over the past 10 years these are the top 2 draft picks the Pats had. Dugger, Uche, Harry, Williams, Wynn, Michel, Rivers, Garcia, Jones (Cyrus), Thuney, Browns, Richards, Easely, Jimmy G, Collins, Dobson, Jones (Chandler), Hightower, Solder, Dowling.

That's 20 picks over a decade. Some of those are good. Specifically Wynn, Thuney, Chandler Jones, Collins, Hightower and Solder. But that's 6 of 20 over a decade. And of those 6 Jones and Collins did not get past their rookie contracts and ended up not being longterm contributors, Wynn has severe injury issues and has been in and out of the line up. Thuney we did not sign past his rookie contract and franchised him once.

I guess you could say Jimmy G, but again injury issues and he started 1 full game for us and was injured in his second start. And maybe Michel who has been spotty and certainly isn't some big time running back.

So really Hightower and solder were the only two in that decade of early draft picks for us that ended up being big time longterm contributors for an extended period of time. Did those others help? Undoubtably. But not enough to fear missing out on the chance at one of them if you really like a QB.

You are highly overvaluing what we will get out of these picks. If Belichick really loves a QB it's worth more than the potential of what you might give up if you miss on them.

 

[upstater1]

The odds are far more likely that you will get three solid players than one franchise QB especially when you factor in the fact that the Pats would be spending three first round picks on the fourth or fifth best QB on the board. They are not trading for Lawrence or Wilson.

I don't think those are the odds.

3 hits on a 1st rounder is much worse than a 50% proposition, whereas drafting QBs in the 1st round of late has been better than 50%.

 

[lancerman]

I don't think those are the odds.

3 hits on a 1st rounder is much worse than a 50% proposition, whereas drafting QBs in the 1st round of late has been better than 50%.

Yup. That's not even the whole story either. Even if you hit on all 3 first rounders, if you hit on a QB it's far more valuable than 3 first round hits at other positions. Even if one of them became a generational outlier (which the last one we drafted was Gronk 11 years ago)

 

[captain stone]

You're all over the place.

You really think Bill is trading up for any player he doesn't love?

Nobody is sitting either guy for two years, not happening. Lance might sit a year depending on where he goes. Fields is playing right away. He would beat out Newton next week.

Damning with faint praise.

 

[zipster9]

I wrote this is another thread...

"Whether the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, nab one of the top remaining wide receivers or choose to further bolster their secondary by selecting a cornerback, they’d be hard-pressed to come out of the first round as losers.

While that’s all well and good, there’s a discussion to be had in terms of how the Pats should approach the rest of the draft. After all, their track record in the first round over the last seven years is so bad that it’s almost impressive, if that makes any sense. But guess what? The same goes for the second round."

The #Patriots last 7 drafts:
– 1 All-Pro and 1 Pro Bowler: their punter, Jake Bailey
– 7 second-round picks: 0 have been full-time starters for even one season
– have drafted 3 second-round corners in the past 7 years- combined, they have started just 3 games
— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) April 8, 2021

Maybe it's time to try something crazy in this draft? This is a pathetic record to say the least!

 

[Huckleberry1]

Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are almost certainly going 1 and 2. That leaves 13 slots for:

QB Justin Fields
QB Trey Lance
QB Mac Jones
WR Ja’Marr Chase
WR Jaylen Waddle
WR DeVonta Smith
TE Kyle Pitts
OT Penei Sewell
OT Rashawn Slater
DE Kwity Paye
LB Micah Parsons
CB Jaycee Horn
CB Patrick Surtain

Any of those guys would be great choices at 15, and it’s guaranteed at least one of them will be there. It’s a great spot to be in, and if the Pats are looking to trade it, I hope they don’t sell it short.

I think this the way you have to look at the board, they could trade down but that’s only if a good offer is available. Too many of the “ mocks” I’m seeing ignore the reality of who will still be there when they pick, by doing what is basically a proxy list you get a much more realistic sense of what their real options are. I’m not suggesting that Landsdowne likes these players in this order but his list of the top prospects is very realistic.

 

[DW Toys]

so was Dwayne Haskins tape!

one read qb’s have a short career!

Thank you Cousin,
That was my point in my past posts. I had forgotten the one read part on Fields. Touche'. He also holds the ball too long. In college you can get away with it but look what happened to Wentz. He got clobbered for trying to make a home run instead of a double.

Watched some film on Wentz. To often he ignored the open guy and went for the harder completion.

If Fields fell to us and we Drafted him ...O.K. I think I would rather a shot with Lance.

We still don't know if the 49ers are on Mac Jones. He could be #3

Now the curve ball of the day. What if the Broncos are all in on a QB. At #9 they are in better shape to get one of "The Fab 4-1 or-2". Now we all know Elway fancies proven vet QBs. What if they Draft a QB, trade a pick with the Panthers for a veteran Teddy B. and opt to trade Lock?

Would you give a 4th for Drew Lock and see if we can season him from his inconsistencies? He is an upgrade on Stidham if we are talking QB rooms. We don't have to blow up our Draft picks to pick him up. Let's call this Plan "C"

I am starting to come around the fact that the "Fab 4" will all be gone (not counting Lawrence). Wilson (#1 of Fab 4" is part but will be gone unless he holds up a bank by the end of the month.) That plus the trade wampum will be ridiculous. I understand that the theory is we are closer now to a top QB in the Draft than ever under BB. But there are so many great players who will slide down to #15. I like Parsons. Who will help more in 2021?

Why is everybody sleeping on Trask? He has a quick release and a good, not spectacular arm. He was more mobile than Brady in college. His numbers this season were off the charts. Yes he had weapons but Jones had more. His arm might be slightly better than Jones. Probably get him at #46 and still get a blue chipper at #15

Sure I would like any of the top 5 now reduced to 3, but.........do you trade up for a Jones? I have listened to evaluators. Mills is closest to Jones. Might have a much better arm and at 4.59 speed, no question on mobility. He has been said to be nearest to Jones in ability.

Mond seems like he is a rhythm guy. Of the three next tier players, Trask, Mills and he, he is the most athletic. He has a good arm.
He is also the least consistent. He fits better with a Cam based offense than the other two. But again maybe a third rounder gets him.

So I call these three plan "B".

I am NOT the biggest Jimmie G fan, but I see how this QB rodeo changes every day. Yes if I had to do #46 for Jimmie G and perhaps a later prove it pick, I would be all in on plan "A" for Jimmie.

The 49ers just signed Nate Sudfeld and have Josh Rosen they picked up last year . Both have NFL experience and Rosen has 16 starts. They can be the bridge. Jimmie G, regardless of what Lynch says, is redundant if you are spending this Draft capital for a franchise QB and Jimmie is not your typical "bridge" QB.

You have to ask yourself, Do I want to throw two firsts and a couple seconds for Fields, Jones or Lance?
DW Toys

 

[zipster9]

I think if they get Monds it will be bottom half of 2nd round or early 3rd round.

 

[Ring 6]

When did Herbert, Mayfield, or Burrow make the Pro Bowl? Burrow hasn't even played a full season yet (obviously not his fault). And I certainly wouldn't use three first round picks on Baker Mayfield. We will have to see about Herbert and Burrow and whether their first year success will continue or teams will develop books on them and their production goes down.

And of your list, only Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson have shown any consistency yet.

And you said the last five years. Why are you ignoring that during that time, 10 QBs who have been average or worse including Jones, Haskins, Darnold, Rosen, Trubisky, Goff, Wentz, Tua, Lynch, and Love. So by your own standard, you only have about a 50% chance of getting a QB worthy to build a franchise around. So you want to use three first rounders to have a 50% chance you get an above average QB or better.

You could spend three first round picks and end up with a player like Goff or you could have traded for actually Jared Goff and the Rams would have given you picks to take his bloated salary off their hands because they wanted him and his salary gone that bad.

And again, the Pats are not trading up for the first or second or even third QB being drafted. They would trading up for the fourth or fifth QB selected. Not one of the "Pro Bowl" QBs you listed were selected lower than the third QB taken off the board other than Jackson. Maybe we should do a list of the fourth and fifth QBs taken off the board over the last five years and do an analysis. Tell me which of these QBs you would give up three first rounders for:

Love
Hurts
Lock
Grier
Rosen
Jackson
Kizer
Webb
Hackenberg
Brissett

The only one from that list I would consider doing is Jackson. So based on the fourth and fifth QB taken in the draft over the last five years, you have a 10% chance of getting good QB.

And after you make those 3 picks you have no QB and can’t win. Brilliant.

 

[moosekill]

And after you make those 3 picks you have no QB and can’t win. Brilliant.

They have two qb's and won 7 games last year, one of the losses was when our qb was out with covid. If he had played that game we have a good chance of winning and are 500 for the season. I was one of the biggest Cam sucked in the second half of the season, people on here, he sucked, plain and simple. Hopefully it was either injury, covid, or lack of weapons. I hope they draft a qb this year, but giving up huge draft capital or players to draft a crappy qb is stupid. No matter how many threads you post this crap in.

 

[JMC00]

"What does Bill know that I don't?" *Panics, chooses a different guy*

Patriots Draft HQ:

he already started it at Alabama's pro day

 

[Ring 6]

They have two qb's and won 7 games last year, one of the losses was when our qb was out with covid. If he had played that game we have a good chance of winning and are 500 for the season. I was one of the biggest Cam sucked in the second half of the season, people on here, he sucked, plain and simple. Hopefully it was either injury, covid, or lack of weapons. I hope they draft a qb this year, but giving up huge draft capital or players to draft a crappy qb is stupid. No matter how many threads you post this crap in.

So .500 is the goal? Btw we weren’t beating the chiefs with newton

Who is trading up to draft a crappy qb? The whole point is that it is the only real way to get a good one.

The worst analysis you can find of fields or Lance is that they have enormous skill but need to be coached up. If you can’t devour resources to a guy like that who can be your franchise QB for 10+ years what are you doing? Where will you find someone better?
how do you win if you draft other players and have garbage at QB?