Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

[DropKickFlutie]

Trask at 15? That seems high.

Agree. Don't even consider Trask or Mills or Mond in the first round. Even among the top5 QBs it's likely the majority of them bust. I feel Pitts is a transcendant talent so Trask having him skewed things.

 

[DW Toys]

Agree. Don't even consider Trask or Mills or Mond in the first round. Even among the top5 QBs it's likely the majority of them bust. I feel Pitts is a transcendant talent so Trask having him skewed things.

Cousin, Fair retort. But here is that same question. What if Mac Jones did not have his fleet of receivers?

The kid that has impressed me the most is Mils. He is under the radar. Has a better arm than Trask or Jones and much faster at 4.59 speed. Stanford plays a pro system. You have to have something upstairs to play there.
I would stick at #15 for a Parsons and grab Mills at #46.
No spending too much wampum to get a QB at the top.

Why the love for Fields?......two words......Ohio State. They have nevre had a QB to make an impact in the NFL. Think Dwayne Haskins. Think Terrell.

Be more interested in Lance, I am thinking Jones is a product of the system. Put Mills at QB in Alabama and see what he does. He's a Norcross Georgia boy as well. Two knee operations in the past have hurt his climb.

Would we be happy with Parsons at #15, Mills at #46 and Feheko (WR for Mills at Stanford. Watch his tape) at #96?

DW Toys

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Cousin, Fair retort. But here is that same question. What if Mac Jones did not have his fleet of receivers?

The kid that has impressed me the most is Mils. He is under the radar. Has a better arm than Trask or Jones and much faster at 4.59 speed. Stanford plays a pro system. You have to have something upstairs to play there.
I would stick at #15 for a Parsons and grab Mills at #46.
No spending too much wampum to get a QB at the top.

Why the love for Fields?......two words......Ohio State. They have nevre had a QB to make an impact in the NFL. Think Dwayne Haskins. Think Terrell.

Be more interested in Lance, I am thinking Jones is a product of the system. Put Mills at QB in Alabama and see what he does. He's a Norcross Georgia boy as well. Two knee operations in the past have hurt his climb.

Would we be happy with Parsons at #15, Mills at #46 and Feheko (WR for Mills at Stanford. Watch his tape) at #96?

DW Toys

I'm on board with LB first then Mills later . Fehoko is super fast but I feel we have enough weapons now with Agholor, Meyers, Bourne, Smith, Henry, Edelman, Harris. I might like Collins more than Parsons specifically for the Pats defense.

 

[DW Toys]

I'm on board with LB first then Mills later . Fehoko is super fast but I feel we have enough weapons now with Agholor, Meyers, Bourne, Smith, Henry, Edelman, Harris. I might like Collins more than Parsons specifically for the Pats defense.

Collins would work for me. I am thinking Jabril Cox in Round 4 as a OLB who can flat cover. That has been a weakness after Jamie left. Him perhaps at #120 and Meinertz as a future starting uard at #122.
Still thinking Harry is in play.Would throw Harry a pick to Cleveland for OBJ. We do not have a true #1 WR on our roster. I think Agholor is a fine #2 WR and the rest are a smorgasbord.
Here is a big reason Cousin. The other Team must game plan for OBJ. That frees up our TE's , White or our other WR. Remeber OBJ is only 28.
DW Toys

 

[Ring 6]

Grapollo, Brady, Carr, Preskott, keenum, Cousins.....non first rounders
Marriota, bortles, Trubisky Darnold top 4 picks

Thats just the current starters

Your kidding right? Keenum Cousins Garoppolo Carr and Prescott. That is your standards? THAT is what you consider success?

Im not sure how you are not following so I will repeat.

Drafting a QB in the top half of the first round is by far THE LIKELY WAY to find a top qb. Not Case Keenum, David Carr or other guys who win nothing.

Drafting a QB in the top half of the first round produces bust BUT AT A FAR LOWER RATE than drafting them later.

If you listed you “starter even if they suck standard” you would find at least a 10 times greater hit rate for top 15 picks thsn 2nd, 3rd, 4th whatever rounds you want to include starters who won’t be starters much longer from.

Here is the analogy.

The smart thing to do when you play black and have 18 is to stay.
The odds are enormously in your favor.
Your argument is the equivalent of saying it’s better to hit because you saw people do it and get an ace 2 or 3 and you’ve seen people stay and lose to a dealer 20.

 

[captain stone]

I agree and Bill will if he thinks that. However he won’t do it if he doesn’t believe it.

That's certainly what we're all hoping he does...

 

[captain stone]

If Lynch & Shanny do us a favor and choose Fields, then I'm Definitely Not calling Atlanta, Cinci or Miami...I might even hang up on Detroit if they insist on multiple 1st/2nd-round picks...Chicago & Washington are still too far away to be able to make an offer we couldn't match, so we need to practice patience here...

 

[BayAreaPatsFan]

You named 5 guys over 40 years and only 1 in the last 20. That’s minute.

why does it matter if they are over 40 years old, its not like they only became good at 40 ...

 

[BayAreaPatsFan]

Teams who risk and trade up fail more often than succeed. Look at the Jets. This will be the third time in the last 12 years that the Jets have traded a lot of capital to move up into the top 5 to draft a franchise QB and have come away with two mediocre QBs and we will see if Wilson ever lives up to his draft hype. The Rams traded up to get Goff and had to get rid of a boatload just to get him off their books.

Meanwhile, this year's MVP and a guaranteed first round HOFer was drafted 24th in the draft. You look at a lot of top QBs in the league right now and they weren't top 10 picks. Along with Rodgers, you have other QBs in the top ten in the production this year like Brady (6th round), Watson (12th), Wilson (3rd round), and Kirk Counsins (4th round).

Since 2012, here are the list of QBs drafted in the top ten:

Blake Bortles - journeyman backup
Jameis Winston - Back up last year and will try to revive his career in a different team that drafted him
Marcus Mariota - A back up
Jared Goff - No longer with the team that drafted him and an average QB
Carson Wentz - A back up in Philly who just got traded away
Mitchell Trubisky - On his second team as a back up
Patrick Mahomes - Arguably the best QB in football
Baker Mayfield - Major disappointment thus far
Sam Darnold - Traded away
Josh Allen - Finally living up to his bill
Josh Rosen - A bust
Kyler Murray - A good, not great QB
Daniel Jones - Average
Joe Burrows - Looks like he could be great
Tua Tagovailoa - Looks like the Dolphins may already be starting to sour on the guy
Justin Herbert - May be good
Andrew Luck - Great QB
Robert Griffin - Bust but could be attributed to injuries
Ryan Tannehill - Bust with the team that drafted him, but has turned into a good QB

So in a decade, the top 10 has only products one sure fire HOFers, and two or three other top QBs and a few more good ones, but mostly were busts and disappointments. So this is why you don't spend a lot of draft capital to move up to get a QB unless you are convinced he is going to be really good.

​

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Don't understand, people talk about these quarterbacks as if they are sure things, and yet when u throw out that info in your post, its like this time its all going to be different. I remeber when Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf when 1 and 2 in the 1998 draft. There was like this huge nationwide debate as to who should be the first pick. It was split right down the middle. Well we know how that worked out. Those same guys that are clamouring for Bill to spend all that draft capital to move up will be the same ones that want to crucify him if that pick does not work out.

 

[Ollie]

Your kidding right? Keenum Cousins Garoppolo Carr and Prescott. That is your standards? THAT is what you consider success?

Im not sure how you are not following so I will repeat.

Drafting a QB in the top half of the first round is by far THE LIKELY WAY to find a top qb. Not Case Keenum, David Carr or other guys who win nothing.

Really? is that why out of the 4 teams that played in the championship games last year only one had a qb that was taken in the early first round.

 

[Ollie]

Your kidding right? Keenum Cousins Garoppolo Carr and Prescott. That is your standards? THAT is what you consider success?

Im not sure how you are not following so I will repeat.

Drafting a QB in the top half of the first round is by far THE LIKELY WAY to find a top qb. Not Case Keenum, David Carr or other guys who win nothing.

Or going back to the divisional playoffs where 5 of the 8 qbs playing weren't taken in the early first round?

 

[wjcook68]

If the other major pieces appear to be in place for a run to the SB and you think the QB can get you there on his rookie deal, go for it. Otherwise I would be hesitant to part with the 1st round draft choices. It appears once the rookie deal is done and the QB has to get paid, teams have to start getting creative to try and keep their core players together. Just my $.02

 

[Ring 6]

why does it matter if they are over 40 years old, its not like they only became good at 40 ...

No. It is 5 examples going back to 40 years ago

 

[Ring 6]

Really? is that why out of the 4 teams that played in the championship games last year only one had a qb that was taken in the early first round.

Brady is the anomaly. Sure let’s just draft QBs in the 6th round and pray. It worked out once. Ever.

Brees was the 32nd pick over 20 years ago.

 

[Lansdowne]

Really? is that why out of the 4 teams that played in the championship games last year only one had a qb that was taken in the early first round.

I’m not taking sides here. Just pointing out that, if we’re talking about the most recent playoffs, there were two QB’s taken early first round (Josh Allen, 7th overall in 2018, and Patrick Mahomes, 10th overall in 2017) and Aaron Rodgers, while not taken early 1st, was expected to go in the top 2 at the time and it was a shock to everyone when he didn’t. Rodgers and Mahomes were the 2nd QBs taken in their respective drafts, and Allen the 3rd QB in his. All ended up being the best QB of their draft classes. And that includes the greatest draft pick of all-time (Brady in 2000 at 199th overall).

 

[Ring 6]

Or going back to the divisional playoffs where 5 of the 8 qbs playing weren't taken in the early first round?

Everyone besides Brady and Brees were taken in the first round. 4 in the top 10.

But really. Are you telling me ignoring QBs in the first round is a good, efficient, high rate of success way to get a top QB?

 

[Ring 6]

In the last 6 drafts 49 QBs have been taken outside of round 1. They have won a combined 1 playoff game.
In the last 8 drafts there were 73 and they combined to win 3 playoff games.
Since Russell Wilson 9 years ago there hasn’t been a QBs drafted after round 1 that has accomplished anything of note. Out of 73.

 

[Lansdowne]

Super Bowl winning starting quarterbacks

2020 - Tom Brady (6th rd, 199 ovr, FA signing for TB)
2019 - Patrick Mahomes (1st rd, 10 ovr)
2018 - Tom Brady
2017 - Nick Foles (3rd rd, 88 ovr, re-signed as FA for PHI)
2016 - Tom Brady
2015 - Peyton Manning (1st rd, 1 ovr, traded to DEN)
2014 - Tom Brady
2013 - Russell Wilson (3rd rd, 75 ovr)
2012 - Joe Flacco (1st rd, 18 ovr)
2011 - Eli Manning (1st rd, 1 ovr, traded to NYG draft day)
2010 - Aaron Rodgers (1st rd, 24 ovr)
2009 - Drew Brees (2nd rd, 32 ovr, FA signing for NO)
2008 - Ben Roethlisberger (1st rd, 11 ovr)
2007 - Eli Manning
2006 - Peyton Manning
2005 - Ben Roethlisberger
2004 - Tom Brady
2003 - Tom Brady
2002 - Brad Johnson (9th rd, 227 ovr, FA signing for TB)
2001 - Tom Brady
2000 - Trent Dilfer (1st rd, 6 ovr, FA signing for BAL)

Just an exercise to show where they were drafted. Not exactly sure it proves anything but I just wanted to see how it looked. Out of 21, 10 of them were 1st round draft choices, and Brady and Johnson the only ones taken super late in their respective drafts.

Also it was just an excuse for me to admire how many times Brady appears on the list.

 

[Zuma]

Super Bowl winning starting quarterbacks

2020 - Tom Brady (6th rd, 199 ovr, FA signing for TB)
2019 - Patrick Mahomes (1st rd, 10 ovr)
2018 - Tom Brady
2017 - Nick Foles (3rd rd, 88 ovr, re-signed as FA for PHI)
2016 - Tom Brady
2015 - Peyton Manning (1st rd, 1 ovr, traded to DEN)
2014 - Tom Brady
2013 - Russell Wilson (3rd rd, 75 ovr)
2012 - Joe Flacco (1st rd, 18 ovr)
2011 - Eli Manning (1st rd, 1 ovr, traded to NYG draft day)
2010 - Aaron Rodgers (1st rd, 24 ovr)
2009 - Drew Brees (2nd rd, 32 ovr, FA signing for NO)
2008 - Ben Roethlisberger (1st rd, 11 ovr)
2007 - Eli Manning
2006 - Peyton Manning
2005 - Ben Roethlisberger
2004 - Tom Brady
2003 - Tom Brady
2002 - Brad Johnson (9th rd, 227 ovr, FA signing for TB)
2001 - Tom Brady
2000 - Trent Dilfer (1st rd, 6 ovr, FA signing for BAL)

Just an exercise to show where they were drafted. Not exactly sure it proves anything but I just wanted to see how it looked. Out of 21, 10 of them were 1st round draft choices, and Brady and Johnson the only ones taken super late in their respective drafts.

Also it was just an excuse for me to admire how many times Brady appears on the list.

This is good. I hope everyone here sees this. Thanks.

 

[Ring 6]

This is good. I hope everyone here sees this. Thanks.

It’s nothing new. Brady first rounders and a rare outlier.