Totally disagree.
The risk of trading up is the qb flood and you lost some picks. The risk of not trading up is you have more crappy QBs play and never won again. If you won’t do it this year, you won’t ever do it and we are destined to play QBs like newton who are only here because no other team even wants them.
The risk of not trading up is much greater than the risk of trading up and it’s not even a risk if you don’t it’s a certainty.
Teams who risk and trade up fail more often than succeed. Look at the Jets. This will be the third time in the last 12 years that the Jets have traded a lot of capital to move up into the top 5 to draft a franchise QB and have come away with two mediocre QBs and we will see if Wilson ever lives up to his draft hype. The Rams traded up to get Goff and had to get rid of a boatload just to get him off their books.
Meanwhile, this year's MVP and a guaranteed first round HOFer was drafted 24th in the draft. You look at a lot of top QBs in the league right now and they weren't top 10 picks. Along with Rodgers, you have other QBs in the top ten in the production this year like Brady (6th round), Watson (12th), Wilson (3rd round), and Kirk Counsins (4th round).
Since 2012, here are the list of QBs drafted in the top ten:
Blake Bortles - journeyman backup
Jameis Winston - Back up last year and will try to revive his career in a different team that drafted him
Marcus Mariota - A back up
Jared Goff - No longer with the team that drafted him and an average QB
Carson Wentz - A back up in Philly who just got traded away
Mitchell Trubisky - On his second team as a back up
Patrick Mahomes - Arguably the best QB in football
Baker Mayfield - Major disappointment thus far
Sam Darnold - Traded away
Josh Allen - Finally living up to his bill
Josh Rosen - A bust
Kyler Murray - A good, not great QB
Daniel Jones - Average
Joe Burrows - Looks like he could be great
Tua Tagovailoa - Looks like the Dolphins may already be starting to sour on the guy
Justin Herbert - May be good
Andrew Luck - Great QB
Robert Griffin - Bust but could be attributed to injuries
Ryan Tannehill - Bust with the team that drafted him, but has turned into a good QB
So in a decade, the top 10 has only products one sure fire HOFers, and two or three other top QBs and a few more good ones, but mostly were busts and disappointments. So this is why you don't spend a lot of draft capital to move up to get a QB unless you are convinced he is going to be really good.