Ring 6
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You can make that argument with any position because no one has a crystal ball and they are humans not robots or computer generated madden players.The truth is that nobody can scout QBs worth a crap, beyond filtering out absolute turbo clowns like Christian Hackenberg.*
*Unless you're the Jets lol
I mean Mahomes fell to 10th overall, the fact that teams couldn't tell he was better than *checks notes* MITCHELL TRUBISKY ARE YOU EFFIN KIDDING ME?!?!? says it all about the ability of NFL teams to extrapolate college QB play into the pros. Basically every single team from 1-9 should have taken him if they had any concept of what he actually was, and almost everyone after that should have tried to trade up ahead of the Chiefs to get him too. But of course that didn't happen.
I'm not that fixated on Lance personally, but if the Pats think he can be the guy, they absolutely should go get him, and to be honest they should overpay without blinking unless it's just comical Herschel Walker trade levels of dumb. It's innately a gamble but you miss every shot you don't take.
The one fact is that too many QBs are drafted high, and by mid to late first round every one that had a chance to be a top QB is gone. The problem why people get confused by it is that QB is totally different than any other position.
-it is the most important position on the field
-you can only use one at a time
-there really are no measurables
At any other position a guy who doesn’t develop can help in a backup role, play special teams, etc. But QB is different. If you could be a top QB you get overdrafted.
It’s like saying if deep threat WR was the most important position on the field, you can’t win without one, and you can’t be one if you don’t run a 4.4. Everyone with 4.4 speed would be over drafted. Many would bust but they were the limited group that had the ability to fill the most vital position so you take a shot. By the end of round 1 you are either draft 4.5 speed guys or guys who can’t catch a cold, are horribly undersized etc.