Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

[Ring 6]

The truth is that nobody can scout QBs worth a crap, beyond filtering out absolute turbo clowns like Christian Hackenberg.*

*Unless you're the Jets lol

I mean Mahomes fell to 10th overall, the fact that teams couldn't tell he was better than *checks notes* MITCHELL TRUBISKY ARE YOU EFFIN KIDDING ME?!?!? says it all about the ability of NFL teams to extrapolate college QB play into the pros. Basically every single team from 1-9 should have taken him if they had any concept of what he actually was, and almost everyone after that should have tried to trade up ahead of the Chiefs to get him too. But of course that didn't happen.

I'm not that fixated on Lance personally, but if the Pats think he can be the guy, they absolutely should go get him, and to be honest they should overpay without blinking unless it's just comical Herschel Walker trade levels of dumb. It's innately a gamble but you miss every shot you don't take.

You can make that argument with any position because no one has a crystal ball and they are humans not robots or computer generated madden players.

The one fact is that too many QBs are drafted high, and by mid to late first round every one that had a chance to be a top QB is gone. The problem why people get confused by it is that QB is totally different than any other position.
-it is the most important position on the field
-you can only use one at a time
-there really are no measurables

At any other position a guy who doesn’t develop can help in a backup role, play special teams, etc. But QB is different. If you could be a top QB you get overdrafted.
It’s like saying if deep threat WR was the most important position on the field, you can’t win without one, and you can’t be one if you don’t run a 4.4. Everyone with 4.4 speed would be over drafted. Many would bust but they were the limited group that had the ability to fill the most vital position so you take a shot. By the end of round 1 you are either draft 4.5 speed guys or guys who can’t catch a cold, are horribly undersized etc.

 

[Ring 6]

I think it's reasonable to assume a first round pick qb gets more time to prove himself than a lower round pick with less expectation. It's very hard to prove but you will stick with someone you saw something initially and wan't to prove your original judgment is correct. Most guys who are drafted late and weren't successful straight away won't get a second chance i would guess so it's quite difficult to prover.

I disagree that anyone is making decisions on players based upon proving they judged them right in the past. That guy would never hold a job.
I would agree you give more talented players more time, but you also draft more talented players higher so it’s a correlation maybe but not a causation.

Give some examples and we can discuss for real rather than theorizing.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

It’s not too expensive if BB and our scouts feel they have a guy out of the top QBs.

I think what I was trying to say is that trading up that far to #4 will be viewed as too expensive to BB, but I could see us trading up to the 7-8 range at a lower cost assuming a top 5 QB is still there (there should be).

Step 1 of our strategy revolves around what Atlanta does. I now think they might take Fields or Vance at #4, despite their dead-money issue with Ryan's contract. They have a new GM & coach not wed to Ryan, who's 36, and the team's been trending the wrong way since 28-3. So it wouldn't be a shock for them to shake it up and take the QB. If they go non-QB at 4, we're in great shape, but if they go QB then that takes us to Step 2, which is to determine if Denver is in the market or not at #9. Picks 5 (Cin), 6 (Mia), 7 (Det) & 8 (Cha) are not picking a QB.

If we think Denver might go QB, then we need to trade with Charlotte at #8, which would cost us #15 plus next year's 1st I'd guess. If we risk that Denver is not picking a QB and they don't, then we're in great shape cause 10 (Dal), 11 (NYG), 12 (Phil), 13 (LAC), and 14 (Min) are not in the QB market and should be open to trading with us for a 3rd and/or 4th rounder.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

I think what I was trying to say is that trading up that far to #4 will be viewed as too expensive to BB, but I could see us trading up to the 7-8 range at a lower cost assuming a top 5 QB is still there (there should be).

Step 1 of our strategy revolves around what Atlanta does. I now think they might take Fields or Vance at #4, despite their dead-money issue with Ryan's contract. They have a new GM & coach not wed to Ryan, who's 36, and the team's been trending the wrong way since 28-3. So it wouldn't be a shock for them to shake it up and take the QB. If they go non-QB at 4, we're in great shape, but if they go QB then that takes us to Step 2, which is to determine if Denver is in the market or not at #9. Picks 5 (Cin), 6 (Mia), 7 (Det) & 8 (Cha) are not picking a QB.

If we think Denver might go QB, then we need to trade with Charlotte at #8, which would cost us #15 plus next year's 1st I'd guess. If we risk that Denver is not picking a QB and they don't, then we're in great shape cause 10 (Dal), 11 (NYG), 12 (Phil), 13 (LAC), and 14 (Min) are not in the QB market and should be open to trading with us for a 3rd and/or 4th rounder.

What you missed is that if ATL isn’t going to take a QB they will absolutely trade the pick. Makes no sense to take Pitts or anyone else at 4 this year when someone will give you multiple picks to move down 4 to 8 spots. I live in Atlanta and the Falcons are MANY players away. More picks is a good idea for them.

 

[upstater1]

The truth is that nobody can scout QBs worth a crap, beyond filtering out absolute turbo clowns like Christian Hackenberg.*

*Unless you're the Jets lol

I mean Mahomes fell to 10th overall, the fact that teams couldn't tell he was better than *checks notes* MITCHELL TRUBISKY ARE YOU EFFIN KIDDING ME?!?!? says it all about the ability of NFL teams to extrapolate college QB play into the pros. Basically every single team from 1-9 should have taken him if they had any concept of what he actually was, and almost everyone after that should have tried to trade up ahead of the Chiefs to get him too. But of course that didn't happen.

I'm not that fixated on Lance personally, but if the Pats think he can be the guy, they absolutely should go get him, and to be honest they should overpay without blinking unless it's just comical Herschel Walker trade levels of dumb. It's innately a gamble but you miss every shot you don't take.

Or scouts see a guy like Mahomes spraying the ball all over the place with the worst accuracy they'd seen in ages, so they don't want to lose their jobs. Which is what happened. People were actually shocked that KC jumped up to get him.

We've seen this though in the past.

Dan Marino was considered a disaster after his senior year. If he left as a junior he would have been drafted #1 (over Kenneth Sims!)

 

[Rob0729]

Julius Peppers played at NC and went to the Panthers. Maybe it is he that you’re thinking of?

Yeah, that's it. I thought it was the Panthers with a top draft pick. That is even farther back.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

No.

 

[DW Toys]

Nope.

Cousins, I have to agree with Fred. As much as I like about the "coolness" factor of BB moving up in the Draft to get this kid, he is a "definite maybe" as a pro. He has been compared to McNair, but what if he is Dwayne Haskins Tim Tebow. Think Akili Snith of the Bengals, He had a small sample size in college (one full season), but he was athletic and considered a two-sport star (he was a blue-chip baseball prospect too). All that athleticism, however, was teamed with a terrible ability to mentally prepare and grasp a playbook. What if he is just a Jacoby Brissett? Do we throw picks to move up to get him, another Jacoby?......nyet!
Would I complain......? No, because you want to see a Pats prospect flourish. Than again I think of Justin Fields and as much as everyone tries to convince me, there has NEVER been an Ohio State QB that has been successful other than Tom Tupa who was our punter for some years. Dwayne Haskins puts up the stop sign for me.
Funny I would take either of them if we Drafted them. There is a reason. The Offense is set up for Cam. These two are similar and Josh doen't have to change the offense M.O.

If we stay at #15 and get a Parsons , he will make a bigger impact now than say thre years or even two as a gestation time for those QBs,

Now my plan is QB Davis Mills and Simi Fehoko as a pair in round two and three. Mills arm strength is probabbaly better than Jones and he ran the 40 at 4.59 so he is an athlete. Both of these kids are way under the radar. Mills was rated as a top QB in high scholl but knee problems sat him on the back burner. He has command of the huddle.

If our fIrst three rounds were:
Parsons
Mills
Fehoko

AND NO SURRENDERED PICKS..........,would you complain?
DW Toys

 

[yukon cornelius]

The question should be.. Is Trey Lance a better NFL QB (NFL QB being the key phrase there ) than let's say Kellen Mond? One is going to cost a significant amount more in draft stock than the other.

Not going to pretend to know but based on things I've read/seen it seems like that isnt as easy to answer as it seems when you look at the total package.

this was the question i was going to post when i saw the thread title......could they go BPA at 15, take advantage of the early QB rush.....and take mond even if it means trading back up at some point.....

 

[yukon cornelius]

Of course, he has yet to play WITH anyone with NFL talent as well. Meaning, the main cause of his gaudy stats and production is... him.

by that logic, doesn't it stand to reason he hasn't played against NFL talent, also?

 

[Ring 6]

Cousins, I have to agree with Fred. As much as I like about the "coolness" factor of BB moving up in the Draft to get this kid, he is a "definite maybe" as a pro. He has been compared to McNair, but what if he is Dwayne Haskins Tim Tebow. Think Akili Snith of the Bengals, He had a small sample size in college (one full season), but he was athletic and considered a two-sport star (he was a blue-chip baseball prospect too). All that athleticism, however, was teamed with a terrible ability to mentally prepare and grasp a playbook. What if he is just a Jacoby Brissett? Do we throw picks to move up to get him, another Jacoby?......nyet!
Would I complain......? No, because you want to see a Pats prospect flourish. Than again I think of Justin Fields and as much as everyone tries to convince me, there has NEVER been an Ohio State QB that has been successful other than Tom Tupa who was our punter for some years. Dwayne Haskins puts up the stop sign for me.
Funny I would take either of them if we Drafted them. There is a reason. The Offense is set up for Cam. These two are similar and Josh doen't have to change the offense M.O.

If we stay at #15 and get a Parsons , he will make a bigger impact now than say thre years or even two as a gestation time for those QBs,

Now my plan is QB Davis Mills and Simi Fehoko as a pair in round two and three. Mills arm strength is probabbaly better than Jones and he ran the 40 at 4.59 so he is an athlete. Both of these kids are way under the radar. Mills was rated as a top QB in high scholl but knee problems sat him on the back burner. He has command of the huddle.

If our fIrst three rounds were:
Parsons
Mills
Fehoko

AND NO SURRENDERED PICKS..........,would you complain?
DW Toys

So your argument is the name a bunch of total dissimilar players and say what if he is them? What if parsons is mantei te’o, Brandon spikes, David Pollack or Shawn crable?
We have to get a QB. Taking one with no shot in the second round is just wasting a second round pick.

 

[Patriot Missile]

28 touchdowns, zero interceptions, 14 rushing touchdowns, 67% completion. Undefeated season. Big, strong, fast with strong, accurate arm. I don’t watch much college football, but I’m intrigued.

Check out this scouting report.

Scouting Trey Lance: North Dakota State QB similar to Andrew Luck

Daniel Jeremiah takes a first look at North Dakota State's Trey Lance and sees a polished quarterback prospect reminiscent of Andrew Luck.

www.nfl.com

I am as well. I don’t find it a coincidence though that they sent their best scout. Of the 5 qbs I would say the most dangerous pick would be Lance in the short term. Had he played last season it’s possible he would of been the 2nd qb off the board. Or massive regression? The best scout had to go in this instance. Huge, huge upside, athletically gifted, poor competition, limited to one college season of film. Scout would have to turn him inside out to get a accurate evaluation.

I’m onboard if BB and Pats are. I love gambling on greatness. Sucks if it doesnt work out, but glorious if it does. Problem is, we have turncoats ready to pounce and bring it up for the next 10 years if doesnt work out while reveling in the failure of the decision.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

What you missed is that if ATL isn’t going to take a QB they will absolutely trade the pick. Makes no sense to take Pitts or anyone else at 4 this year when someone will give you multiple picks to move down 4 to 8 spots. I live in Atlanta and the Falcons are MANY players away. More picks is a good idea for them.

Yes I thought of that but the post was getting too long. Unless the Falcons have their heart set on a particular QB, I'm sure they'd like to trade down and get some high picks. But they don't have a ton of trade partners, cause who's going to trade up unless it's for a QB? And the only team in that boat is possibly Denver, which is a legit possibility. In that case Denver takes the QB at 4, and then we hope that Atl doesn't take the 5th QB at 9 - which is the same situation to us as if Alt and Denver stay where they are.

Atlanta can really screw us up because we can't afford to go up to #4 or above, so we can't affect them. If I were them, I'd trade down to 9 then draft the 5th QB there.

 

[yukon cornelius]

So your argument is the name a bunch of total dissimilar players and say what if he is them? What if parsons is mantei te’o, Brandon spikes, David Pollack or Shawn crable?
We have to get a QB. Taking one with no shot in the second round is just wasting a second round pick.

not if the pats don't have lance or fields ahead of trask or mond or mills......or if they don't have them rated enough ahed of them to warrant the draft capital a move up would take

if lance is their QB4, and trask or mond or mills in some combination is QB5-7, it comes down to risk reward.....by all accounts lance has a higher ceiling and lower potential floor.....the simple fact is NONE of them may be a quality starter, so the chance on one of the others might not be as great

realistically even one of the 3 QBs may not develop into a quality starter

 

[Ring 6]

not if the pats don't have lance or fields ahead of trask or mond or mills......or if they don't have them rated enough ahed of them to warrant the draft capital a move up would take

if lance is their QB4, and trask or mond or mills in some combination is QB5-7, it comes down to risk reward.....by all accounts lance has a higher ceiling and lower potential floor.....the simple fact is NONE of them may be a quality starter, so the chance on one of the others might not be as great

realistically even one of the 3 QBs may not develop into a quality starter

Well every assumption is based upon the consensus of where the players are viewed as prospects.
The difference is that QB that stick around until the end of the first or the second or 3rd round end up with almost zero chance.
Lance isn’t considered the possible #4 and almost definite top 10 because someone threw a dart at a board. The guys going on day 2 are going on day 2 because nobody feels their chances of turning into a top starting QB are any good, otherwise they would be draft in the top half of round 1.

I get the logic of taking a chance on a long shot when it’s not a position if need. But it is a gaping hemorrhaging deficiency on this team.

It seems unreasonable that the patriots would have any of those 3 ahead of Lance or especially ahead of fields.
If they can get fields they have to.
This isn’t taking a shot with Jimmy G when you already have Brady. This is filing a vacancy at the most important spot on the field.

I truly wish it was like every other position. And you could be smart and find a stud on day 2 or 3, or you could trade or find a free agent. But that is just way too rare for it to be a plan.

Ans yes you could trade up and the QB busts. But the alternative is staring put, trying to bandaid the QB positron and your whole team busts.
I don’t understand the fear of going after the player you have to have when if you don’t do it you are never going to win.

 

[yukon cornelius]

Well every assumption is based upon the consensus of where the players are viewed as prospects.
The difference is that QB that stick around until the end of the first or the second or 3rd round end up with almost zero chance.
Lance isn’t considered the possible #4 and almost definite top 10 because someone threw a dart at a board. The guys going on day 2 are going on day 2 because nobody feels their chances of turning into a top starting QB are any good, otherwise they would be draft in the top half of round 1.

I get the logic of taking a chance on a long shot when it’s not a position if need. But it is a gaping hemorrhaging deficiency on this team.

It seems unreasonable that the patriots would have any of those 3 ahead of Lance or especially ahead of fields.
If they can get fields they have to.
This isn’t taking a shot with Jimmy G when you already have Brady. This is filing a vacancy at the most important spot on the field.

I truly wish it was like every other position. And you could be smart and find a stud on day 2 or 3, or you could trade or find a free agent. But that is just way too rare for it to be a plan.

Ans yes you could trade up and the QB busts. But the alternative is staring put, trying to bandaid the QB positron and your whole team busts.
I don’t understand the fear of going after the player you have to have when if you don’t do it you are never going to win.

i don't expect fields to go past the 3 spot, i'm not buying the lance smoke

and folks have lance all over the place.......

and QBs this year are a screwed up market......guys that are rated 2nd day are going to go first just because of panic and demand

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

Most of these prospects are scouted and ranked based on how their game will translate to the NFL, not necessarily by how great they were in college. That’s why a player like Lance is rated so high despite limited tape on him and playing against inferior competition compared to Mond who has four years experience in a Power 5 conference.

So whereas with Mond they’ve had a lot more to see and determined he’s not up to par with the elite prospects, Lance is seen as a moldable piece of clay who compares favorably to the likes of Andrew Luck, Josh Allen, and Steve McNair whereas the comparisons I’ve seen for Mond range from Dak Prescott to Josh Dobbs. Scouts generally see Lance’s skill set as something that should translate to a potential Pro Bowl caliber QB, where Mond is pegged as an NFL backup that could be a starter but needs more fine tuning for that to happen.

It’s why I think a franchise that already has a proven QB locked up for the next two years can afford that time and is better served with a guy like Mond who can develop in that timeline. I don’t put us in that category, where we have Cam for 1 year max before we need to know who the starter is for 2022.

Understood but my point at the end there was when you consider what you'll give up for someone like lance vs. someone like Mond ..looking at the whole package - which helps the New England Patriots the most?

Trade up for Lance and not make another pick until the late day 2 (hypothetical situation) OR drafting Micah Parsons and selecting Kellen Mond In the 2nd. I'm not even sure of my own answer but I don't feel it's clear cut/slam dunk for Lance.

 

[ralmat55]

Wish him well but no to Lance. He reminds me of Akili Smith. Too much of a projection, too little competition and way too much hype.

I did see in another thread that the estimable @captain stone said he’d not draft Justin Fields even if he was available at 15. Since Bill is the anti-Captain (or vice versa) , I’m now getting concerned the Pats will trade 3 1sts for the 4th pick and take Fields with it. The guy couldn’t beat out Jake Fromm at Georgia for goodness sake.

 

[Ring 6]

i don't expect fields to go past the 3 spot, i'm not buying the lance smoke

and folks have lance all over the place.......

and QBs this year are a screwed up market......guys that are rated 2nd day are going to go first just because of panic and demand

This year is no different than any other recently. It’s what the market is.

If Fields goes 3 then I would prefer Jones to Lance unless I can also get garoppolo.

But this argument reminds me of the guy who goes to the bar looking for women and says none of them are hot enough to waste his time on so he goes home alone every night waiting until the hot one shows up and she never does.

 

[BTTA]

I mean do you really believe teams coach players based upon where they were drafted?

Do you have examples of players who were drafted late and could have become top 10 qbs but their team didn’t have patience that we could discuss?

YES.
Not possible to know.